With gunfire once again erupting in South Africa, an already tense international situation spiraled further out of control. The decisive moment to choose sides had arrived, leaving no room for hesitation. The smell of gunpowder filled the world. At this moment, Europe was like a powder keg with a lit fuse, waiting for the final judgment of fate. Amsterdam. As international tensions escalated, this once prosperous global metropolis remained crowded with traffic, yet the laughter and ease of the past had vanished. When the situation turns tense, capital markets are always the most sensitive. Before the Dutch government could make a final decision, the stock market collapsed first. Capitalists began waving banknotes and buying frantically. Quality no longer mattered. As long as it was an asset, someone was willing to make an offer. Everyday necessities were especially sought after. Before ordinary citizens could even react, prices surged rapidly, and shortages followed immediately. There was no alternative. Once the Holy Roman Empire and Britain went to war, the North Sea would inevitably be blockaded, and long distance maritime trade would grind to a halt. Domestic goods would be unable to leave the country, while overseas industrial raw materials would no longer come in. The blow to the fragile Dutch economy would be severe. Although continental Europe still existed as a market, the Netherlands was fundamentally a maritime trading nation. The bulk of its economy depended on overseas commerce. Once sea lanes were cut off, connections between the homeland and the colonies would be severed. Without colonies to exploit, and relying purely on manufacturing strength, the Netherlands possessed very little competitive advantage. Having realized the danger, capitalists were taking concrete action to salvage as much of their wealth as possible. The bustling activity on the streets was, in truth, the final frenzy before the storm. Any goods that could be shipped abroad had to be sent out immediately, while essential imports had to be secured against the clock. Oppressed by the tense atmosphere, pedestrians hurried along the roads, coming and going in haste. Even the shops lining the streets had grown quiet. Stores selling high-end luxury goods were particularly deserted. By contrast, modest shops selling everyday necessities had long lines forming at their doors. The Dutch government was not entirely unprepared. Ever since Franz had pioneered direct government intervention in the market, imitators had never been lacking. The only difference lay in how far each government was willing to go. As the buying frenzy erupted, the Dutch government had no choice but to activate emergency measures in order to stabilize the domestic situation, imposing purchase limits on everyday necessities. This, however, did not stump the resourceful Dutch people. If purchases were limited, they would simply line up a few more times. Even if individual shops kept records, Amsterdam did not have only one grocery and household goods store. In an era without the internet, implementing true purchase limits was extraordinarily difficult. From the capitalists’ perspective, as long as someone was willing to pay, it made little difference who the buyer was. Unless the government stepped in to establish direct state monopolies, purchase limits could do little more than buy time for reallocating supplies. State monopolization was impossible. Unlike later generations, when state owned shops became commonplace across Europe, governments of this era rarely owned enterprises outright. Without mature commercial management systems, handing such operations directly to bureaucrats would have been worse than doing nothing at all and letting the capitalists run wild. At the very least, the government could lose less money, endure fewer accusations, and avoid facing the anger of the public head on. If ordinary citizens could already sense how tense the situation was, the pressure facing those who actually governed the country was far greater. Ever since the Russian government decided to support the Holy Roman Empire, the Dutch government had realized that the so-called neutrality movement was bound to fail and began searching for alternative solutions. Unfortunately, time was not on their side. Before any new plan could be put together, news of the Anglo-Austrian conflict in South Africa arrived first. Good fortune never comes twice, and misfortune never comes alone. Before the Dutch government could even respond, more news followed in rapid succession. Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, and other countries had all chosen sides. At this point, the only continental European states that had yet to declare their position were the Netherlands and the Nordic Federation. Even Portugal, the country farthest from the Holy Roman Empire, had that very morning pledged its allegiance to them. The reason the Kingdom of Portugal was able to make such a swift decision, abandoning its British ally and joining the Holy Roman camp, was not complicated at all. In short, the Kingdom of Spain had chosen the Holy Roman Empire. Anyone with even a basic understanding of the long standing rivalry between Spain and Portugal knows that the two countries were once united in history. Emerging Spanish nationalism envisioned an ideal territorial scope that explicitly included Portugal. Against the broader backdrop of confrontation between the two major camps, if the Kingdom of Portugal continued to follow Britain, there was a real possibility that Spain would seize the opportunity to absorb it outright. The problem was that British land forces were limited. Even defending Britain’s own territory was a challenge, let alone providing strong military support to others. In a direct confrontation, Portugal stood no chance against Spain, especially a Spain backed by the Holy Roman Empire. In theory, in order to maintain a balance of power and safeguard its own hegemony, the Holy Roman Empire should have restrained the growth of individual states and would have been unlikely to support Spain’s annexation of Portugal. But theory was only theory. Over the years, the Holy Roman government had done no shortage of things that defied neat theoretical logic. After the Holy Roman envoy in Lisbon laid the situation bare, the Kingdom of Portugal quickly made what it regarded as the correct choice. For the sake of survival, offending the British was no longer a concern. With so many countries now backing the Holy Roman Empire, even if Britain ultimately won the war, it would lack the capacity to settle scores afterward. At worst, Portugal would lose its overseas colonies. Those colonies had long been running at a loss anyway, so giving them up would actually ease the fiscal burden. As for the losses suffered by domestic interest groups, that was not something politicians were worried about at the moment. When survival was at stake, everything else had to give way. With Portugal’s swift decision to choose sides, the pressure on the Dutch government increased instantly. Being watched simultaneously by two great powers was an unmistakably unpleasant position to be in. … Looking at the telegram in her hand, Queen Wilhelmina spoke with a hint of tremor in her voice, “Suspending commercial trade… This is the Holy Roman government issuing its final ultimatum.” Perhaps influenced by Franz’s butterfly effect, Queen Wilhelmina’s involvement in politics was far deeper than it had been at the same point in the original timeline. Not only her, but nearly all of Europe’s monarchs had been affected. With the powerful rise of the Holy Roman Empire, Britain’s constitutional monarchy no longer carried the same appeal it once had. Although many countries still followed the constitutional model, there were meaningful differences between one version of constitutional rule and another. “Yes, Your Majesty,” Prime Minister Christie replied. “After the outbreak of the South African conflict, the war between the Holy Roman Empire and Britain has entered its final countdown. The Holy Roman government choosing to lay its cards on the table at this moment is hardly surprising. The only difference is that this time the Austrian government’s attitude is harsher than at any point in the past, leaving no room at all for negotiation. Perhaps this is what it means to be a hegemon. Not only us, but the Nordic Federation has also received a final ultimatum. The time left for us is running out. Before war breaks out, we must make our choice.” It was clear that Christie was far from calm. The Holy Roman government’s sudden abandonment of its former mild and courteous posture, replaced by an unmistakably forceful stance, had clearly shaken him. But shaken or not, realizing this now was already too late. The Holy Roman Empire, with the momentum fully on its side, was no longer something they could hope to challenge. “Sigh.” After letting out a breath, Minister of Internal Affairs Anwen Henriks said with emotion, “A choice? At this point, we do not actually have a choice at all. Once the hegemonic war between the Holy Roman Empire and Britain begins, no country in Europe will be able to stay untouched. The British are willing to allow us neutrality, but no matter how powerful the Royal Navy is, warships cannot march inland. The Holy Roman Army, on the other hand, can fight its way straight to Amsterdam. From the moment the Russian government made its decision, our plan had already failed. With European countries now lining up to choose sides, this outcome was entirely predictable. The neutrality movement we initiated had already displeased the Holy Roman government. If we continue to stubbornly hold out, we may end up being used as an example to establish their authority.” It was not that Anwen Henriks lacked courage. The reality was simply that the Netherlands did not have the capital to resist to the bitter end. With even slightly greater strength, they would not be facing such an open and unambiguous threat. A glance at the neighboring Nordic Federation made that clear. Although it had also received a final ultimatum, the wording directed at it was noticeably more courteous, leaving room for further discussion. Naturally, the Holy Roman government’s current lack of restraint was not unrelated to the neutrality movement the Dutch government had been promoting earlier. One had to understand that over the past several decades, the Netherlands and the Holy Roman Empire had maintained very close ties. In international politics and diplomacy, the two governments often held the same positions. If this war had not involved such an enormous scope and touched directly upon the core interests of each country, relations between the two governments would never have deteriorated to this extent. Foreign Minister Van Toff waved his hand and said, “Anwen is right. The Holy Roman government’s stance is far too hardline now. We truly have no choice left. Not only must we choose a side, but we should do so before the Nordic Federation declares its position. Otherwise, trouble will follow later. As for the British, the Foreign Ministry will do everything it can to maneuver diplomatically and avoid turning our homeland into a battlefield. However, the effectiveness of that effort may be limited. If the British decide to carry out a landing operation, there are only three viable locations, and we happen to be one of them. For national security, I propose strengthening coastal defenses. For example, we could increase the number of coastal artillery batteries, or follow the example of the Holy Roman Empire by establishing air units dedicated to maritime defense. After that, all we can do is gamble on luck together with France and Belgium. Let us hope God shows favor to the Kingdom of the Netherlands.” Politics is never simple, and even choosing sides depends on timing. Being the first to defect and being the last to do so often result in completely different treatment. At this stage, being the first is no longer possible. The only thing the Dutch government can still do is ensure it does not become the last. Clearly, the best moment for political opportunism has already passed. Declaring a position now might earn them nothing more than a share of the leftovers, and it is uncertain whether that would even compensate for the losses suffered during the war. But there was no alternative. With the situation having developed to this point, even if there were no tangible benefits at all, the Dutch government still had to choose a side.
[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]
Comments
Post a Comment