Fools miss opportunities, the wise seize them, the successful create them. Opportunities are only for those who are prepared. Since they want to withdraw from France, the Russian government will not be held back by a mere “pretext.” If they hope to pull out without provoking the anti-French alliance, there is only one path: war. Only when the Russian Empire is at war with a third country will the Russian government have a sufficient reason to withdraw troops without being blamed by other states. Open a map and you can see Russia has few neighbors left. Europe is full of hard bones, the British in South Asia are not to be trifled with, and the only easy targets are to the east. Before the Russian government could find an opportunity to manufacture a casus belli, someone handed them one. A “declaration of war on all nations” crossed the sea into Europe. Before the European states could react, the Russian government was the first to announce it would take up arms. You have to hand it to them. Many have courted disaster before, but never so deliberately. Fortunately it was only a farce. The declaration circulated internally and was not delivered to the foreign ministers of other countries, so it did not constitute a real declaration of war. Otherwise… Legalities aside, the Russians only needed a pretext to exploit, and the Qing Dynasty happened to deliver one on a silver platter. Whether to fight, how exactly to fight, and how far it would go, even within the Russian government they probably had not worked that out. The rest can be imagined. In any case, the Qing Dynasty is going to be unlucky this time. With the Russians taking the lead, the British certainly will not stand aside, and as for the Japanese, do not even mention them. The Butterfly Effect has led to the demise of three nations—Italy, Germany, and Austria-Hungary—and the United States has been split into two. As for how many nations will ultimately form a coalition army, that question can likely only be answered by God. … Newly appointed Foreign Minister Leo Frankel said, “Your Majesty, yesterday afternoon the Russian government declared war on the Qing Dynasty, and they also sent us an invitation…” Before the foreign minister could finish, Franz interrupted, “Refuse them outright. The international situation is volatile. Who knows, one day we might be at odds with the British. The Empire does not have the strength to contest the British in the Far East. Now is not the time to divert attention to the Qing Dynasty as that would be the act of a fool. Monitor the Russian government’s next moves closely. If they intend to withdraw from France, we must delay them for two months to buy time to assemble a peacekeeping force.” The rationale was somewhat strained, but the strategic core of the Holy Roman Empire was indeed not in East Asia. Densely populated regions like that were not the Empire’s target for expansion. By contrast, France’s importance was much greater. No matter how ruined France is now, given the French people’s glorious history, the Austrian government at every level dared not be careless. “Your Majesty, the Russian government has already announced a withdrawal plan. The Russians, using the need for war as an excuse, have decided to pull 220,000 troops out of France. After this plan is carried out, the total number of Russian troops stationed in France will drop from the current 270,000 to 50,000. We have already received the diplomatic note. The joint command will probably receive it shortly. Now it’s just a matter of implementation. Of course, if we ask them to postpone the withdrawal for two months, the Russian government should give us that face.” Foreign Minister Leo Frankel offered the reminder with slight embarrassment. A war provided the Russian government with a pretext to withdraw troops. The fact that they were not pulling all their forces out at once suggested they still wanted to remain part of the anti-French alliance and were not prepared to sever ties. Since they do not want to destroy their relationship, the Austrian government asking the Russian army to delay its withdrawal by two months is naturally not a problem. In any case, this still concerns 200,000 troops. Trying to pull that many personnel and weapons back to the Russian Empire from France without the Holy Roman Empire’s cooperation would take the Russian government a year or more to accomplish. For the Holy Roman Empire, it is obviously a good thing that the Russians will not leave entirely. The dirty and shameful jobs always need someone to do them. As long as the money is right, Russian officers and soldiers will not be afraid to take the blame. Having such a professional blame-taking force on hand is very helpful for preserving the Holy Roman Empire’s international image. Franz did not believe that French people would welcome Holy Roman troops simply because the Russians left. Even if the discipline of the Holy Roman Army might be better, the centuries-old enmity between the two nations cannot be healed overnight. Franz also knew that all the old, petty grievances would be dug up again. Even if the French themselves were unwilling to make an issue of it, the British would help rouse those dormant hatreds and provoke conflicts. History has already shown that hatred cannot be solved by reconciliation alone. Most of the time, it is more reliable to use the bayonet. Franz did not dare to hope to win French hearts in France. If he could stabilize the situation and keep the French from jumping into the next struggle for hegemony and creating trouble for the Empire, that would be enough. … London A new wave of turmoil in the Far East was absolutely good news for the British government. Upon receiving that tidings, Prime Minister Robert Cecil immediately brightened. It was rare. Apart from the first day he took office as prime minister, he had never been this pleased. There was no other way. The international situation had been extremely unfriendly to Britain. Looking across the Channel at the continental alliance, Robert Cecil could only sigh. All his scheming and calculations only bought the Holy Roman Empire more time to consolidate control over the continent and did not solve the fundamental problem. One had to admit the power of geopolitics. As a transformative continental hegemon, as long as the Holy Roman Empire was not utterly abandoned, the European countries would have to turn to it. This is no longer a question of benefits, but a more fundamental matter of survival. In the brutal contest of international competition, small states have no choice and they must attach themselves to the strong. Of course, these fence-sitters are only a minor nuisance. They wave flags and shout when asked, which is tolerable, but their actual usefulness is still very limited. What truly worries Britain is the Russo-Austrian alliance. If that ace pair is not dealt with, Britain will have to fight the Holy Roman Empire at sea and the Russo-Austrian forces on land. At sea Prime Minister Robert Cecil does not flinch since the Royal Navy would not fear anyone in a one-on-one fight. On land, however, the situation would be tragic, something Britain cannot afford to suffer. Now, at last, a small glimmer of opportunity has appeared. Whatever reason the Russians have for advancing east, it reduces the pressure on Britain in India. Great efforts have been spent to defend India. The British government has poured money into training colonial troops, and even the declining Persian state receives British support. Britain does not expect Persia to do much, only to hold out a little longer so that Holy Roman forces are not able to push all the way to India. National strategy is never decided lightly. Since the Russian government chose this moment to attack the Qing Dynasty, the Russian eastward strategy is essentially set in motion. The next problem is how to deliver a crushing blow to the Russians in the east, escape the trap of fighting on multiple fronts, break the Russo-Austrian alliance, and finally bring Russia over to Britain’s side. The plan is complicated, difficult to execute, and its chances of success are only modest. But having a plan is better than having none. At this point, if Britain wants to preserve its hegemony, the only route left is to woo the Russians. The Russia of its heyday is clearly beyond reach. They are eyeing India hungrily, and Robert Cecil does not dare try bargaining tricks with the bear. Against this backdrop, weakening the Russians a bit and forcing the Russian government to feel a sense of crisis becomes absolutely necessary. It is almost the same playbook as in the original timeline. Before the Russo-Japanese War, Anglo-Russian tensions were sharp while German-Russian relations were still quite good. After the war, German-Russian relations rapidly deteriorated, and Anglo-Russian antagonism eased. Even with France trying to mediate, the root cause was the Russian government feeling threatened by the Germans. Otherwise, loans alone would not have been enough to bend the Tsar’s will. After all, defaulting on debt is nothing new. Their forebears did it, so why should Nicholas II be any different? Right now it is even more obvious. The fact that successive tsars have tried to escape dependence on Austria shows that the Russians genuinely feel the pressure. That the two countries can still keep relations going is due partly to the Russo-Austrian alliance giving them reassurance, binding their interests together so tightly they cannot be untangled quickly, and partly to India being so close and tempting that greed outweighed fear. Once they suffered a public beating and realized they lacked the strength to seize India, reality overcame greed and the Russian government felt afraid. Fear naturally leads to seeking allies. As for fully attaching themselves to the Holy Roman Empire, that is complete nonsense. Dependence is a tactic for small states. Even if a great power were willing to abase itself and throw itself at another, who would trust it? If Britain falls, then the relationship between the Russian Empire and the Holy Roman Empire would be that of world number two to world number one. The second-rank power attaching itself to the top power would look deeply unbalanced. Historically the number two has always been suppressed, without exception. Why should the Russian government believe the Austrian government would go easy on them? Just on the basis of the two countries’ traditional friendship? Statesmen are not idealists. When making choices, their thinking naturally runs to worst-case scenarios. That is why the number twos and number threes band together to keep warm and jointly oppose the world’s number one. Frankly, Robert Cecil was deeply skeptical about Britain and Russia cuddling up to one another. After all, Anglo-Russian contradictions are sharp too. Even if they are temporarily forced together by pressure from the Holy Roman Empire, genuine close cooperation would be difficult. Reality is cruel. Without France as its heavyweight enforcer, Britain’s layout on the Continent is missing a piece, and strategically it has already fallen into full passivity. Whether an Anglo-Russian pairing is reliable or not, the British government has no choice. Two countries sharing the burden is better than Britain going it alone. Now that a glimmer of hope has appeared, it is naturally worth celebrating. But it is still working hours, and to avoid giving rivals any handle, Robert Cecil had to suppress that excited feeling for the moment. “The international situation has finally shifted. We did not even have time to act before the Russians leapt in themselves. The next question is how to weaken them. The Russian Empire is powerful, but the forces it can commit to the Far East are very limited. Never mind that the Trans-Siberian Railway is not yet fully operational; even if it were, that problematic line could not sustain many troops in the field. The current issue is that although the Qing Dynasty has some strength, its government is so rotten it lacks the courage to stand and fight the Russians. Relying on them alone to deal a heavy blow to the Russians in the Far East is plainly insufficient. We need more pieces on the board, and the Japanese cannot remain idle either.” Once again the facts prove that pies do not fall from the sky for no reason, and even if one does fall, it is usually poisoned. The Central Asian Railway built with the Austrian government’s aid has quality issues, and the Trans-Siberian Railway secretly supported by the British is similarly full of pitfalls. Perhaps they work fine in normal use, but once freight volume increases, the Russian government will immediately understand that railways can be temperamental. This outcome is inevitable. If they do not set a few traps and slow them down logistically, and the Russians actually succeed, would the British government not be lifting a rock only to drop it on its own foot? Bear in mind the Far East is Britain’s sphere of influence. John Bull is not the sort to sacrifice himself for others. Foreign Secretary Cameron said, “Prime Minister, acting now is still a little premature. The Siberian Railway is not yet open, and the Russians cannot project their strength there. Even if the ragtag forces in the Far East are completely wiped out, it will not damage the Russians’ core strength. They may find the eastward advance too difficult and pull back to resume the southern strategy, and then we would have real problems. To lure the enemy more effectively, in the short term it is better to let the Russian government taste a victory first. Coincidentally, the Qing Dynasty right now is…” As the saying goes, “If you cannot part with your own child, you cannot catch the wolf.” Most people would hesitate to sacrifice their own child; put someone else’s child in the place of sacrifice and the pressure is gone. In politics the line between friend and foe can shift in an instant. One moment we are talking about supporting the Qing Dynasty to take on the Russians, the next they decisively decided to sacrifice the Qing Dynasty’s interests to draw the enemy in. It is clear that Cameron already deeply understands the essence of British diplomacy. In the shortest possible time he displayed the professional competence expected of Britain’s Foreign Secretary. Chancellor of the Exchequer Pavel said, “Sir speaks rightly. The forces the Russians can commit to the Far East right now are indeed too small and carry no real weight. The Russians’ eastward strategy not only means Austria’s plan to draw the trouble south has failed, it also threatens the Holy Roman Empire’s status as the land hegemon. The Austrian government cannot stand by and watch the Russians complete the ‘Yellow Russia’ Plan. Right now, they are the ones who most do not want the Russian government to succeed, so we have no need to rush. Whether the Russo-Austrian alliance remains unbreakable or not, once there are signs that the Russian eastward strategy is succeeding, the Austrian government will inevitably move to suppress it. If they succeed in the first step, when they try to take the second step the Russians will find the whole world turned against them, including their closest allies. By then the Russo-Austrian alliance, even if it can be barely maintained, will be hollow in name only, and our opportunity will arrive. But the Russians alone are not enough. To deal with the Holy Roman Empire, the British Empire will need more allies.” The word ally gave Robert Cecil a headache. There was no avoiding it. He had inherited a mess of a booming economy and disastrous diplomacy. Although his predecessor was among the most capable of British prime ministers, by misjudging France’s strength he had driven Britain to the brink. Undoing the damage was easier said than done. Since the continental alliance was formed, Britain’s room to maneuver diplomatically had been greatly reduced. After so many years of trying, Britain still had no true ally. Japan did not count as it was only a low profile underling and not yet qualified to be Britain’s ally. At present, apart from the Russian Empire, Robert Cecil did not know whom he could bring on board, or who would even be willing to join. “Does the Foreign Office have any suggestions?” Such complicated matters were best left to the professionals, even if, judging from the Foreign Secretary’s long, bitter face, he didn’t quite look the part. Foreign Secretary Cameron replied helplessly, “We can’t count on the European countries. The fact that they can even remain neutral is already a blessing from God. Our focus can only shift to the Americas. There are many independent states in the Americas, but very few of real strength, and even fewer that we could possibly win over. The most valuable target for us is, of course, the Union, followed by the Confederation. Unfortunately, the two are mortal enemies. If we tried to pull both to our side, we would spend all our time mediating between them instead of doing anything else. If we choose one, the other is very likely to be drawn in by our enemies. Given the Austrian government’s diplomatic skills, the chance of that happening is no less than ninety percent. Aside from that pair of rivals, countries like Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, and Chile are also on the Foreign Office’s list of outreach targets. But these nations share a common trait: lack of strength. They can add some political noise, perhaps, but expecting them to make any real contribution is impossible. At most, they might divert the enemy’s attention a little and threaten their colonies in the Americas, but their help to the overall situation would be limited.” The rivalry between the Union and the Confederation was, in no small part, Britain’s own handiwork. The joint intervention by Britain, France, Austria, and Spain had planted the very seeds of that enmity. When it came to digging traps, Britain was a true professional, but France, Austria, and Spain were hardly amateurs either. During America’s division between North and South, the four powers, acting as arbiters, had each quietly buried mines along the newly drawn borders. The young and politically inexperienced leaders of both the Union and the Confederation had never encountered such underhanded tactics, and the local officials handling the negotiations were even more bewildered, letting the four European delegations lead them by the nose throughout the process. The result was that the already bitter hatred between North and South only deepened after the war, their postwar relations worsening over border disputes. If not for the earlier war’s devastation, the weak sense of national unity in both states, and their internal divisions, they might well have fought a second round by now. In fact, had the European powers not been distracted by their own internal conflicts and eased their provocations, the Union and the Confederation might already have been at war again.
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