As expected, as a responsible great power, Austria naturally had to provide security assurances to Belgium and Northern Germany. On August 1, 1888, Franz issued the “Proclamation to the Peoples of Europe”, clearly stating that Austria would be committed to maintaining the balance and stability of the European continent and would resolutely oppose the evil forces seeking to disrupt the European order. As for whether the two governments dared to trust this, no one could say for sure. But the proclamation still had a positive impact and received widespread support in public opinion. With Austria’s promise, Belgium and North Germany gained a sliver of confidence at the negotiating table. Just a sliver, because if war broke out, the ones to suffer the most would still be those two countries directly involved. No one knew who would ultimately win between France and Austria, but one thing was certain: those caught in the middle would be the losers. The governments of the two countries might remain rational, but that didn’t mean their citizens would. After Austria’s explicit response, a massive anti-French movement erupted among the populace of both nations. In Brussels, demonstrators had already blocked the streets. Even inside the palace, King Leopold II could clearly hear the sound of public protest. Unquestionably, they were all demanding that the government adopt a tough stance against France. Nationalism had already risen, and the conditions proposed by the French deeply offended everyone’s pride. Prime Minister August said, “Your Majesty, we can no longer back down now. The French still harbor ill intentions toward us and this is only the beginning. Constant concessions won’t solve anything. They’ll only lead the French to think we’re weak and easy to bully, encouraging them to press even harder.” Clearly, Austria’s firm stance and the support of mainstream European public opinion had influenced the Belgian government. Even the usually cautious and steady Prime Minister August had been angered by France’s unreasonable demands and had shifted to a hardline position. King Leopold II nodded. He, too, wanted to be tough but he had no confidence in it! True, Belgium had a secret agreement with Austria. But if war broke out, it would take time for Austrian reinforcements to arrive. In the early stages, they would have to withstand the brunt themselves, and there was a 99.99% chance that the war would be fought on Belgian soil… If the Austrians chickened out or arrived a few days late, Belgium would cease to exist. King Leopold II had no confidence in stopping a French invasion militarily. They couldn’t hold them off militarily, nor could they retreat politically or economically. Just looking at the crowds gathered outside made it obvious. If they gave in to France’s unreasonable demands, the country would erupt in chaos. As for the economy, there was even less wiggle room. Giving up such a huge source of revenue would drive the Belgian government straight to bankruptcy. King Leopold II asked, “How are our Ministry of Foreign Affairs’s commucation with the Germans going? Are they willing to stand or fall with us?” Foreign Minister Jules shook his head and sneered, “The Germans are busy communicating with the British, hoping the British government will intervene in the actions of the French.” Leopold II was shocked and said, “Have they lost their minds? If they intended to intervene, the British would have made their position clear long ago. At this stage, to still pin hopes on British interference is just wishful thinking!” Leopold II had every reason to be stunned. It didn’t take much thought to realize that Britain and France had just formed an alliance. No matter what, at this point, the British government would not risk a fallout with its most important ally for their sake. Even Austria, the country most likely to intervene, had so far only issued a statement and had not directly joined the negotiations. In Leopold II’s view, instead of continuing to entangle themselves with the British, they should take this opportunity to push for a tripartite alliance between Belgium, North Germany, and Austria to jointly curb French expansion. Foreign Minister Jules explained, “It’s possible the British made some promise to Hanover. King George I has consistently resisted drawing closer to Austria. But other German states are in communication with Austria. The Grand Duke of Baden will soon visit Vienna, perhaps in relation to this matter.” Despite appearing disunited, the North German Federation still shared a common goal when it came to defending national interests. Britain withdrawing from the international coal export alliance meant it was unrealistic to keep coal prices high for France. But signing a humiliating, low-price coal agreement with the French was even less acceptable. In a sense, the North German Federation was acting most in line with its own interests. The central authority in Hanover cozied up to Britain, while the smaller principalities turned to Austria for support. Considering the bigger picture (or who’s really behind them), even if the negotiations fail, the French wouldn’t dare to make a rash move against them. But this left Belgium in a tight spot. The relationship between the North German Federation and Britain or Austria was far deeper than anything Belgium could claim. There was no shortage of patriots willing to bleed for their nation. If France invaded Northern Germany, whether Austria wanted to join the war or not, nationalists at home would drag the Austrian government into it. Even if the central government wanted peace, border troops might take matters into their own hands. Anyone who tried to stop them would be going against public opinion. Britain might not break ties with France over such actions, but Queen Victoria would definitely not be pleased. Even if there was no public fallout, some covert actions against France would be inevitable. Belgium, however, did not enjoy such privileges. While Britain-Belgium relations were decent, they didn’t include a military alliance. Because of its smaller size, Belgium simply wasn’t that important to Britain. Of course, Britain wouldn’t want to see France annex Belgium, but giving Belgium a beating? That wasn’t serious enough for Britain to intervene. As for Austria, ever since Belgium broke away from the Holy Roman Empire, it had not really been seen as “one of their own.” Although the two had a secret treaty, that didn’t mean Belgium couldn’t be betrayed. If France tried to annex Belgium, Austria would probably honor the pact. But if France merely gave Belgium a beating, would Austria really go to war over it? No one could say for sure. In truth, what Leopold II feared most wasn’t being annexed by France. Annexing a country in continental Europe would draw massive international hostility. Without the tacit approval of other great powers, France wouldn’t dare anger the world like that. The real threat was military with France delivering a punishing blow and then installing a puppet government. For a ruler, that’s almost as bad as losing the country. After a long hesitation, Leopold II finally said, “First, calm the crowds outside. Tell them the government will absolutely not accept France’s unreasonable demands. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should continue negotiating with France. The coal export price can be lowered, but not to a point far below the international average.” Despite France’s threats, Leopold II took on the responsibility of a monarch and chose first to pacify his people. With the emergence of two major alliances, the European continent was becoming increasingly tense. Leopold II was fully aware of this. Unfortunately, Belgium was just a small country without the clout to steer events. Even the fragmented North German Federation was in a better position than they were. … In Paris, upon seeing Franz’s Proclamation to the Peoples of Europe, Napoleon IV’s face darkened. It had been merely a probe, but Austria had jumped in to sabotage the effort just as it began. There was a world of difference between having the support of a great power and lacking it. Clearly, now there was no chance Belgium and Germany would accept France’s terms. “Hmph!” With a cold snort, Napoleon IV flung aside the half-read proclamation and cursed, “Damn Habsburgs! Always haunting us, meddling everywhere!” France and the Habsburg dynasty had clashed for centuries over continental dominance. Even the Bonaparte dynasty had its own longstanding feud with the Habsburgs, stretching back to the Napoleonic Wars. In recent decades, things had cooled somewhat, but tensions between the two had not lessened. In fact, they had only intensified. Though both governments had avoided open conflict to prevent benefiting other powers, their covert clashes were too many to count. Prime Minister Terence Bourquin consoled him, “Your Majesty, there’s no need to be upset over something so minor. Though we failed to get Belgium and Germany to accept our terms, we’ve successfully tested the bottom lines of each country. Even Austria, which appears the most aggressive, is only shouting loudly. If they truly intended to back Belgium and Germany, they would’ve joined the talks directly. As things stand, they appear supportive, but only in spirit. They’ve taken no concrete action. If it comes to choosing war over these two countries, the Austrian government would likely back down.” In a sense, Napoleon IV really had no need to be angry. The outcome was actually better than anticipated. If not for Franz’s annoying Proclamation, it might even have been considered perfect. Napoleon IV sneered, “So what? The bottom lines of the European powers are indeed low, but what we’re doing still challenges those limits. Britain, Russia, and Austria all want to stop us from gaining our final advantage. Even our closest ally has warned us.” To the public, only Austria had openly supported Belgium and Germany and condemned France’s actions. But behind the scenes, both Britain and Russia had also expressed displeasure to the French government. Perhaps those warnings weren’t strong, but they still exerted invisible pressure on the French leadership. Prime Minister Terence Bourquin said, “In any case, this is a good start. Though European countries continue to reject us, they are no longer united and each have their own agenda. When it comes to containing us, the three great powers of Britain, Russia, and Austria are already divided. If not for geography, Austria might not have been so vocal. The morale of the Belgian and German governments has already been shaken. In the next round of negotiations, a slight concession on our part should be enough for them to accept. With lower coal costs, our domestic industry and economy will undoubtedly benefit. A new era of prosperity is not far off.”
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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