On the Afghan battlefield, after a series of bitter struggles, the British army succeeded in defeating the main force of the Afghan government troops. On July 16, 1888, the British army, after suffering more than 3,000 casualties, successfully captured Kabul. The remnants of the Afghan government were forced to retreat into the Hindu Kush Mountains. Having finally achieved this great victory, the British did not keep it under wraps. The British government in London promptly issued a public announcement. Seeing the British flaunt their military success, Franz felt rather troubled. The outcome was far too unexpected. The Afghan government had not even managed to hold out for six months. While the British had already taken Kabul, the Russians were still locked in fierce battles with the Central Asian khanates. If the British army broke through Afghanistan and linked up directly with those khanates, the war would become much more difficult for Russia. This was completely different from the original plan. Franz had hoped that Afghanistan would hold out a little longer, giving the Russians enough time to push the frontlines into British India and properly provoke the British. Without that provocation, the British government was unlikely to go all out and fight Russia to the end. Most likely, they would occupy Afghanistan and then stop there. As for the three Central Asian khanates, they would try to save them if possible. If not, it would not be out of the question to sell them out and make a compromise with Russia. Perhaps in the years to come, Afghanistan would become a heavy burden for the British, but the Russians would not have suffered any major setbacks. An aggressive ally like the Russian Empire should not become too powerful. Otherwise, it would be difficult to sleep peacefully at night. After rubbing his forehead, Franz said helplessly, “Approve the Russian war loan. The Russian government needs our support right now.” There was no other way. Since they could not influence the British government, they had to push the Russian government instead. Now they could only hope that the Russian Bear would be greedy enough to fight the British to the end over India. Foreign Minister Weissenberg said, “Your Majesty, this is not the right time to show goodwill. It would seem too deliberate. If the Russians want a war loan, it would be better to follow the proper procedures and have them provide collateral. That way, we avoid being exposed for trying to stir up a war between Britain and Russia, which could cause unnecessary trouble.” Politics needs to be wrapped up nicely. Austria did want to provoke a war between Britain and Russia, that much was true. But thinking it is one thing, saying it out loud was absolutely impossible. From the beginning, the Austrian government had positioned itself as being uninterested in the Central Asian War and only acting out of obligation due to the Russo-Austrian alliance in supporting the Russians. Cheering on the Russians was just a show of solidarity in the face of a common enemy, with absolutely no intention of stirring up trouble. Whether others believed it or not did not matter. The Austrian government certainly believed it. “Hmm.” Franz nodded in agreement. Given the current situation, Austria really was not in a position to do too much. But doing nothing was also not an option. Letting the situation develop on its own would mean Austria’s strategic goals could not be achieved. Chancellor Karl said, “Neither the British nor the Russian governments are fools. With the situation developing as it has, achieving our strategic goals by working through the leadership is no longer possible. Perhaps we should change our perspective. To intensify the conflict between the two countries, we do not necessarily need the consent of their governments. As the war progresses, it is only a matter of time before Britain and Russia share a direct border. Once there is no buffer between them, it will be much easier to provoke conflict. So far, the British have only deployed five colonial divisions from India and a small number of domestic troops. The combat effectiveness of these forces is very limited. They may be enough to deal with the Afghan government, but they are far from enough to intimidate the Russians. All we need to do is give a push behind the scenes and let the radical faction within the Russian army make a move.” After hearing the Chancellor’s explanation, Franz suddenly realized he had fallen into a trap of thinking. In this era of the strong preying on the weak, everything ultimately depends on strength. The British may appear to have the upper hand, but the colonial divisions in India cannot truly stabilize the situation. Not only can they not deter the Russians, they may actually provoke Russian ambition. Changing this situation is not impossible. Britain could immediately expand its army and redeploy hundreds of thousands of regular troops from the homeland to confront the Russians. This may seem simple enough, but the problem is that expanding the army costs money. And not just a one-time expense. It would be a long-term burden. As long as the Russian Empire remains a threat, Britain would be forced to maintain a heavy military presence in Afghanistan. As a result, Britain would no longer be merely a maritime power. It would also be forced to develop land power. Even though this “land” was not its homeland, the importance of India was only slightly less than that of the British Isles. The army would consume a large portion of the military budget, and over time, this would inevitably affect the development of the Royal Navy. And these were not the only concerns. Franz had thought of even more. On the surface, the British had taken Kabul, but Afghan resistance had not stopped. It might not be obvious in the short term because the British-controlled territory was still limited. But once they occupied all of Afghanistan, whether these few Indian divisions could maintain local order would become a serious question. Faced with a chaotic Afghanistan, would the Russians not be tempted? As long as the Russians took action, the British government would have no choice but to respond. At worst, Austria could simply act as a financier and fund a head-to-head conflict between Britain and Russia. Spending money now to weaken two rivals at once was far better than spending more later and having to get directly involved in the struggle. “The Chancellor is right. We do indeed need to shift our thinking and take a bottom-up approach. Let the intelligence department take responsibility for stirring up the Anglo-Russian conflict. The Ministry of Finance should make preparations. In addition to the current 50 million guilders in war loans, we will set aside another 300 million guilders over the next three years to support the Russians in fighting to the end.” Being the financier did not mean Austria would cover all the costs. The majority of war expenses would still have to be handled by the Russian government. For example, the most basic need, food, was already stockpiled in the Russian government’s warehouses and only needed to be transported to the front. Relatively speaking, meaning Russian soldiers were cheap to maintain. As long as they were fed and given a rifle, they could be sent to the battlefield. With the Russian government’s self-raised funds, combined with Austria’s generous loans, the Russian army would have more than enough to keep hundreds of thousands of troops fighting for several years. “Yes, Your Majesty!” … Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “It’s not just the Central Asian front that we need to watch. The European continent is also at a critical turning point. Ever since Britain and France formed an alliance, the French have become increasingly aggressive. Just last week, the French government bribed the British Coal Association. The British Coal Association broke away from the International Coal Export Alliance and has already lowered the price of coal exported to France by 20%, making it comparable to the average price of coal on the international market. Now the French are putting pressure on Belgium and the North German Federation, demanding that they increase coal exports to France by 30% and also reduce the price by 69%. This price is not only far below the international coal price but is even lower than the domestic coal prices in several European coal-producing countries. Once various costs are added in, some coal mines with higher extraction difficulties will likely end up operating at a loss.” In fact, the average international coal export price had only been raised due to the International Coal Export Alliance’s sanctions on France. Without calculating shipping costs, the price was already about 20% higher than Austria’s average domestic coal price, and the price France was paying for coal was around 50% higher. With such high export prices and all kinds of additional fees, the final cost to buyers could exceed the original price by more than half. Coal is an essential commodity, and because Britain and Austria had been leading the coalition, the French were previously unable to resist. After the Anglo-French alliance was formed, the encirclement was broken and the international situation began to improve. The French government couldn’t resist making a move. After bribing the British, they began using their newfound leverage to bully Belgium and the North German Federation. As for Austria, another member of the coal export alliance, its share in the international coal export market was negligible, so the French simply ignored it. Even without a calculator, Franz knew that the French aimed to break the dilemma of persistently high domestic energy prices. Probing other European countries was only a secondary motive. Despite the lack of a calculator, Franz quickly drew his conclusions. Taking Austria’s average retail price for refined coal as a base of 1.5, the French aimed to purchase at: 1.5 × (1 − 0.69) = 0.465 The French wanted to buy at 46.5% of the retail price. Once taxes, transportation, and the profits of wholesalers and retailers were factored in, the final cost to French businesses would roughly match Austria’s domestic energy prices. And this only brings them on par with Austria. In fact, Britain, a major coal producer, had even lower domestic coal prices, lower by around 3-5%. These figures clearly explain why French industrial and commercial products lacked competitiveness. While it’s true the coal industry can be highly profitable, it isn’t so profitable that suppliers could accept such a low price. Even domestic suppliers in France couldn’t access coal at those rates. Based on the French pricing, unless Belgium and the North German Federation exempted their coal producers from all taxes, most coal enterprises would be operating at a loss. The French had every right to want lower energy costs, but the problem was that their government expected Belgium and the North German Federation to foot the bill for them. Chancellor Karl exclaimed in surprise, “The French must be insane. How can Belgium and North Germany possibly accept such pricing? Even if both governments give in under French military pressure, I doubt the capitalists would ever agree.” It wasn’t just a matter of doubt. The capitalists certainly would not agree. Capital was already becoming internationalized in this era.
Take the coal mines in the Rhineland region, for example. A significant number of them were already in the hands of British and Austrian capitalists. How could those capitalists possibly accept a price that harmed their own interests? At worst, they would simply stop doing business with the French. With foreign backing, they had nothing to fear. In the end, those who would truly suffer were likely the ones without any support. Franz nodded and said, “If you want to destroy someone, you must first drive them mad. If the French are really acting this arrogantly, then that works in our favor. These demands go far beyond what Belgium and North Germany can tolerate. There’s no way either country would agree. If the French actually resort to force, Belgium and the North German Federation would turn to us. I wouldn’t hesitate to send troops and fight alongside our allies. But the French are not that foolish. They are not yet ready for war, and turning hostile now would do them no good. Most likely, this is just them testing the waters. Such outrageous initial demands are only meant to probe Belgium and North Germany’s bottom line and push down their psychological expectations. If nothing unexpected happens, the French will likely show a little goodwill in the upcoming negotiations, and the two countries will choose to compromise.” This was the helplessness of small nations, the sorrow of the weak…
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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