The confrontation between the two major European alliances is most worrisome not for the four major powers themselves. Whether it's Russia and Austria, or Britain and France, each has its own strengths and enough capability to defend itself. The real victims are the small countries caught between the two alliances. For now, since tensions between the blocs have not yet escalated, they can barely manage. However, once the conflict intensifies, these nations will be forced to pick a side. In reality, geopolitics has already determined where each country will stand, leaving little room for personal choice. The countries of Western Europe can only support Britain and France, while those in Eastern, Northern, and Southern Europe must support Russia and Austria. Central European countries are in the most difficult position, completely unsure of whom to choose. Neutrality? That may work for now, but once the two alliances go to war, these nations will become the first sacrifices. No matter which side they choose, they’ll be severely punished by the other. Especially for unfortunate countries like Belgium, their poor strategic position makes it impossible for them to stay out of the conflict. Of course, this is the worst-case scenario. For the time being, there’s no sign of imminent war between the two alliances. But King Leopold II, ever vigilant, could no longer sit still. Originally, both Britain and Austria were Belgium’s quasi-allies, working together to resist French expansion into Central Europe Now, with Britain and France forming an alliance, the question arises: does Britain’s earlier promise to ensure Belgium’s security still stand? Foreign Minister Jules replied cautiously, “Your Majesty, the Austrian Foreign Ministry has sent a formal note, inviting us along with Switzerland, the North German Federation, and Spain to sign a treaty aimed at maintaining peace and stability in Europe.” One look at the map makes it clear that the countries mentioned above are all close neighbors of France. Excluding France from such a treaty makes it obvious who the target is. This can clearly be seen as a counteraction against the Anglo-French alliance. Austria intends to prove through real action that France can still be contained, even without British participation. King Leopold II asked in confusion, “Austria only invited four countries to participate? No other countries were approached?” In theory, the four mentioned countries all face a direct threat from France and, feeling the pressure, are the most likely to align with Austria. However, opposing France has always been a collective responsibility of all European nations, not just an isolated issue for a few. This sudden shift was difficult for Leopold II to accept. Foreign Minister Jules replied with certainty, “Austria indeed invited only these four countries. Reportedly, the Austrian government was concerned that other countries, not having experienced France’s aggression directly, might have weaker positions on containing France. There’s a possibility they could be bought off by France and act as saboteurs within the alliance. Perhaps, in the eyes of the Austrian government, five countries working together are sufficient to contain French expansion.” This was also the view held by many. While France was strong, it had not pulled ahead of Austria by a decisive margin. With the addition of Switzerland, Belgium, the North German Federation, and Spain, the anti-French alliance would be on solid ground. Compared to a divided coalition, a small alliance with shared interests and effective cooperation seemed far more reliable. Prime Minister August let out a sigh and said, “If that’s the case, then we’re in serious trouble going forward. Without the participation of other European nations to share the burden, the pro-French Spanish government is unlikely to join. After all, with France having little reason to expand westward, Spain isn’t under much pressure. Switzerland, due to its geographic location, doesn’t play a critical role. If the Swiss government insists on remaining neutral, Austria most likely won’t force the issue. Between choosing France or Austria, the North German Federation will undoubtedly support Austria. Even with the Anglo-French alliance, they are still more inclined toward Austria. Because of their current strength, the North German Federation has the capability to remain temporarily neutral. As long as the two major alliances don’t go to war, they can serve as a buffer between France and Austria and avoid taking sides for the time being. What looks like a tentative invitation is, in fact, a way to pressure us into choosing a side. Between the Austro-Russian alliance and the Anglo-French one, we have to pick one.” That was the most tragic part. Others might be able to stay out of it, but poor Belgium had no such luxury. There was no choice. France’s ambitions toward Belgium always required someone to contain them. Originally, that responsibility was shared by both Britain and Austria. Now that Britain had allied with France, only Austria remained to restrain France’s ambitions. If Belgium refused Austria now, then in the future, when faced with a French invasion, they would be left to fight alone. As for the British, there was little confidence left. Even if the British government was willing to intervene militarily, Belgium would be finished long before the British Army completed its expansion. After much hesitation, Leopold II slowly said, “Have the Foreign Ministry send envoys to negotiate with Austria. We are willing to sign an agreement for joint defense against the French, but only under the condition of strict secrecy. Austria might not mind offending the French, but we do not have the strength to stir up trouble like that. Make sure the treaty includes a clause requiring Austria to provide us a guarantee to our security. Also, send people to strengthen our ties with the North German Federation, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. When the critical moment comes, their stance will matter a great deal.” Belgium leaning toward Austria was a matter of necessity. Right now, the threat with ambitions toward them was France, not Austria, which was hundreds of kilometers away. Joining the Anglo-French camp would be like asking a tiger for protection. In the face of interests, the label of “ally” was worthless. One misstep, and they could be swallowed alive. Choosing to sign a secret agreement was essentially Leopold II’s risk-avoidance strategy. If it could be kept hidden, all the better. And if it could not, then every day of delay before exposure was another day spared from bearing the consequences. … Compared to Belgium, things were much livelier in the North German Federation, where both opposition and support were widespread. What was supposed to be confidential quickly became public knowledge before any consensus could even be reached. As expected, once the matter was out in the open, it marked the failure of Austria’s plan to draw others into an alliance. Under pressure from Britain and France, Spain and Switzerland both politely declined Austria’s proposal. As for Belgium, it only engaged in secret talks. Publicly, the Belgian government also did not dare to take sides. ... When news of the failure arrived, Franz was not surprised. No one was foolish enough to believe otherwise. Austria’s effort to create an anti-French alliance was essentially about recruiting cannon fodder and could not deceive the sharp-minded. As France’s economy recovered, domestic calls for war grew louder. The military, led by the nobility, sought military achievements, and capitalists wanted to resolve the supply issue of coal. These were all problems that war could conveniently address. Otherwise, the French government would never have agreed to set aside a century of conflict with Britain and form an alliance just because Britain offered a tempting opportunity. Foreign Minister Wessenberg produced a document and said, “Your Majesty, this is the preliminary result of our negotiations with the Belgian government. The biggest issue at present is the division of rights and responsibilities. The Belgian government, citing its limited capabilities, is only willing to bear a portion of the war responsibilities. Specifically, they will only commit troops if the French invade Central Europe. If we go to war with France in the Italian region, Belgium has only agreed to provide material support. Officially, they intend to maintain neutrality.” “Limited war responsibility” in practice is equivalent to bearing no war responsibility at all. Looking at the map of Europe, it’s clear that the best route for the French to invade Central Europe is through Belgium. If the enemy is already at the doorstep, then even without a mutual defense treaty, Belgium would still have no choice but to put up resistance. It may appear that Austria is getting the short end of the stick, but in reality, this is a relatively fair agreement. Given Belgium’s size, if France and Austria were to clash in the Italian region, even if Belgium joined the war, it would not make a meaningful difference. A single French detachment could defeat them, and Austria would still be forced to dispatch troops to save them. The greatest value in drawing Belgium into an alliance is not expecting them to demonstrate exceptional combat effectiveness or make significant contributions. The main point is that once the Austrian army gains the upper hand on the battlefield, they can advance straight through Belgium and seize strategic initiative. Without much hesitation, Franz made his decision: “Agree to their request, but add a clause for passage rights. If we go to war with the French and need to pass through, then as allies they must open the route and help secure the logistics. As a return favor, once we win the war, they will also receive a share of the spoils. Any disputed territory between France and Belgium can be handed entirely to them.” Anyone can make empty promises. After all, it’s French territory being offered, and if Belgium has the appetite for it, then let them have it. It’s not just Belgium. In fact, Franz didn’t mind if any allies that joined the war ended up with a piece of France. When it comes to dealing with enemies, they must be thoroughly weakened. In the original timeline of the Franco-Prussian War, the outcome wasn’t wrapped up perfectly because France was never truly weakened. Whether it was war indemnities or territorial cessions, those measures only caused temporary pain but were far from fatal. If the Kingdom of Prussia had been more flexible in its diplomacy at the time, and had managed to rope in Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, Italy, and others to join the war and divide the spoils together, the ending might have been entirely different. Once all the neighboring countries had gained benefits, they would have stood on the same side. As victors, no one would want to see their enemy rise again. At that point, everyone would work together to suppress France. No matter how strong France might be, it wouldn’t be able to withstand being targeted by so many enemies at once.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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