On December 21, 1887, British Prime Minister Gladstone, in response to parliamentary inquiries, publicly declared war on Afghanistan, marking the outbreak of the Second Anglo-Afghan War. In this day and age, the British Empire didn’t even need parliamentary authorization to bully a small nation. In fact, if it hadn’t been for the sensational assassination of Walters, Afghanistan wouldn’t have even qualified for a declaration of war. Like most indigenous small nations of this era, the European world had never truly recognized the Afghan government. In the perception of most Europeans, the Kingdom of Afghanistan was no different from a native tribe. Even the British army’s defeat in the First Anglo-Afghan War hadn’t changed this external view. This was because the Indian colonial army couldn’t represent Britain’s true fighting power, and it was only the East India Company, not the entire British Empire, that had fought Afghanistan. This point is evident from the declaration of war on Afghanistan. Knowing full well that Afghanistan might have been falsely accused, the British government still declared war, not even bothering with the formality of an investigation. From the moment Britain and Afghanistan declared war, Franz stepped back, having accomplished his goal, and became a cheerful onlooker. However, no matter how long Franz waited, the real show never began. The British government shouted its slogans to the heavens, yet took no concrete action. They had promised to send troops right after Christmas, but even by February, the war had yet to start. If this dragged on any longer, it would soon be the next Christmas. At this point, if Franz didn’t realize the British were playing the “declaring war without fighting” game again, he would have been Emperor for all these years in vain. … Franz asked, “How are the Russians preparing?” Foreign Minister Wessenberg replied, “The Russian government has already assembled two infantry divisions, one cavalry division, and a large amount of strategic supplies in Central Asia. They are simply waiting for the ice and snow to melt and for domestic roads to clear before launching an offensive into the region.” The British might have remained inactive, but that did not mean the Russians would as well. Compared to the cunning British, the Russians were somewhat easier to manipulate. Perhaps due to some deep-seated instinct, Russians had always had little resistance when it came to acquiring land, especially since they had once occupied parts of Central Asia. Seeing that their fledgling ally was in danger, and with Austria’s encouragement, the Russian government weighed the pros and cons, found no apparent danger, and decided to act. Chancellor Karl said, “The British government has declared war on Afghanistan but refuses to fight. It seems they have realized the risks. Now it is just a question of whether they are willing to back down. The Russians, having just slightly recovered their strength, at most can swallow one or two Central Asian khanates. Trying to sweep through all of Central Asia in one go and then march south to the Indian Ocean is simply impossible. At present, the British government faces two choices: either halt the arms race and focus their forces on crushing Afghanistan and fighting the Russians in Central Asia; or cede a significant portion of Central Asia to the Russians and fully commit to the arms race. Whatever choice they make, the British still have a good chance of success. Of course, it’s not impossible that the British government will lose its mind and simultaneously pursue both an arms race and a Central Asian campaign.” From Austria’s perspective, of course, the best outcome would be for Britain to clash head-on with Russia in Central Asia. No matter who wins or loses, Austria would come out ahead. Whether they are allies or not does not matter at all. If the British manage to pull off a miracle and crush the Russians, Franz would not hesitate to award them a medal weighing a hundred tons, made entirely of pure gold. The reverse is also true. As long as the Russians can push south to India, Franz would be happy to provide full support. Of course, selling off everything to fund it is out of the question, their relationship is not that close. By comparison, an arms race would be pointless. Rather than wasting money trying to outspend the British, it would be better to invest those resources in domestic development. Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “Opening both an arms race and a Central Asian campaign at the same time is not something the British would be foolish enough to do. The British government is likely deeply conflicted right now, unsure which front to prioritize, as they are facing off against three major powers. Perhaps we should give them a helping hand and control the intensity of the arms race, so the British can confidently head north to engage the Russians. On this matter, I believe the French will be on the same page with us. Napoleon IV is busy eliminating his political opponents. His involvement in the arms race is more out of obligation than desire. If he can end it early, he would have no reason to refuse.” Chancellor Karl asked, “How do we explain things to the Russians? We did promise to pin down the British. If we give up now, it will be hard to justify.” Austria and Russia had no history of casually breaching agreements. Even the Russians seldom did such things, let alone Austria, which was always careful to preserve its reputation. Austria had maintained influence across Europe for hundreds of years, relying primarily on diplomacy. Especially during the period after the wars against France and before Austria’s resurgence, it had depended entirely on diplomatic maneuvering to maintain its status as a major power. After so many years of careful management, the Austrian government’s international credibility had become extremely valuable. Unless it was absolutely certain that Russia could be crushed and the eastern threat eliminated, the Austrian government would not break its promises lightly. Finance Minister Mark responded, “This problem is easy to solve. We just need to make sure the Russians know we lent our naval construction funds to them, so we are unable to continue the arms race.” Everyone’s eyes lit up. Although it was a bit underhanded, it was indeed an effective solution. The Russian government’s finances were limited. If the Central Asian war ended quickly, that would be one thing. But if the war dragged on, the Russians would inevitably seek loans from Austria. By then, Austria’s financial sector could refuse them directly. The Austrian government, in the name of friendship between the two countries, would instead lend them the naval construction funds to continue the war. Perfect. Seeing everyone had agreed on the course of action, Franz smiled slightly and said, “Then it is settled. The Ministry of Finance will handle giving an explanation to the Russians. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will secretly contact the French and help facilitate this great Central Asian brawl, weakening both Britain and Russia as much as possible.” … Austria was taking action, and the British were not sitting idle either. Both were driven by necessity. Confronting three major powers simultaneously placed enormous pressure on the British government. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. While this does not always apply in international struggles, it can be effective in isolated incidents. Britain’s maritime civilization had instilled a strong sense of crisis awareness. Realizing they were facing off against Russia, France, and Austria at the same time, the British government began seeking solutions. Russia and Austria had been allied for many years, so winning Austria’s support was unrealistic. The British government instead set its sights on France. On March 1, 1888, British Foreign Secretary George visited Paris. The British government had very high hopes, and Sir George publicly stated that this was a journey to thaw Anglo-French relations. Napoleon IV himself was not pleased with the arrival of these unexpected guests. The reason for this was evident by simply looking at the nearby Palace of Versailles. Damaged by the Paris Revolution, Versailles had only been restored to 70% currently. The remaining sections were still under construction. The British had been the culprits behind the Paris Revolution. Even after the uprising had been suppressed, many of the revolutionary leaders had been spirited away by the British. With national grudges and personal hatred combined, it was natural that Napoleon IV harbored no goodwill toward the British. More precisely, he disliked both the British and Austrians, whom he saw as the two hidden culprits. For the customary welcoming banquet, Napoleon IV was absent without offering any justification. This was likely the first time since the era of Napoleon III that a French emperor had so openly snubbed the British. In addition to worsening diplomatic relations, there had also been a shift in the balance of power between Britain and France. As the world’s leading land power and the second-largest naval power, France no longer recognized Britain’s hegemonic status. This was especially true among France’s younger generation, including Napoleon IV himself. They felt no reverence toward the British, only an eager desire to challenge them. This perfectly illustrated the saying: whoever is the world’s hegemon will inevitably have the most enemies. … At the Palace of Versailles, with a sullen expression, Napoleon IV asked, “The British have come to us on their own. What do you all think they want from us?” Though there was clear displeasure toward the British, diplomatic engagements still had to proceed normally. Whether or not an agreement could be reached ultimately depended on interests, not personal feelings. Foreign Minister Émile Flourens said, “Your Majesty, the British are in a panic. The Russians are eager to make moves in Central Asia, and a major war is on the verge of breaking out. Behind them, there is also the shadow of Austria. If the situation spirals out of control, it is very likely that Russia and Austria will jointly expand toward India. If they cannot find someone to pin down Austria, the British will have to face both Russia and Austria alone. Even if they win in the end, the losses would be enormous, and they might even lose India.” Colonial disputes are not just about surface-level victories or defeats; the governance of colonies must also be considered. Especially in a densely populated region like India, once nationalist ideas take root, the cost of ruling would be unimaginable. Great power competition has no scruples. Even actions that harm others without benefiting oneself are common. Prime Minister Terence Bourquin sneered and said, “That is simply Britain’s problem. Even if Russia and Austria join forces, they cannot swallow India. The British have been entrenched in India for many years. Even if they can no longer hold it, they could instigate local independence. The Austrians probably do not harbor such fantasies, but as for the Russians, it is uncertain. After all, they have the Yellow Russia Plan. India should be easier to take than the Far Eastern Empire, and given the Russian government’s greed, they will not give up any opportunity. Because of the Russo-Austrian alliance, even if Austria does not act itself, it will not stop Russia from expanding into India. This is also our opportunity. We can sit back and watch the tigers fight, and perhaps we might even pick up some spoils. What we need to do now is compare the offers from each side and choose the one that maximizes our benefits.” Terence Bourquin’s opinion could be said to represent the mainstream view within the French government. Everyone indeed resented the British, but they would not turn their backs on profit. As long as the British offered a high enough price, anything was possible. After hesitating for a moment, Napoleon IV nodded in agreement with this viewpoint. Still, the trace of concern between his brows revealed that he was not entirely willing. There was no helping it. Between nations, interests always came first.
[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]
Comments
Post a Comment