In Saint Petersburg, ever since receiving news that Britain and France were preparing to form an alliance, Alexander III had been unable to sit still. Originally, he had hoped to win over the French and, with the combined power of France, Russia, and Austria, strike a blow against the British. He hadn’t expected the situation to reverse so quickly. With a glimmer of hope, Alexander III asked, “Is the news confirmed?” Deep down, he desperately wished it was just a rumor. If Britain and France truly formed an alliance, the Austrian navy would be unable to compete against them. The Austrian government couldn’t possibly hold its ground at sea against a joint Anglo-French force. The ongoing arms race between Britain, France, and Austria would also come to an end. Austria’s previous promise to use the arms race to pin down the British would naturally fall apart. Although Austria never actually intended to fulfill that promise and had already prepared excuses in advance, the Russians didn’t know that. After all, the Austrian government had built up a solid reputation over the years, never once breaking an agreement. Alexander III had no reason to doubt them. Now, with the arms race over, the Russian Empire would be facing a wealthy and powerful Britain on its own. Because of the Anglo-French alliance, Austria would be tied down by France, leaving Russia to deal with Britain alone. Foreign Minister Nikolay de Giers replied, “The information has been confirmed. British Foreign Secretary George arrived in Paris over half a month ago, and the two countries are currently engaged in alliance negotiations. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already ordered our embassy in Paris to closely monitor the talks. Any updates will be reported immediately.” Prevent it? Intervene? Sabotage? None of that is possible. Britain and France are among the most powerful nations in the world and couldn’t care less about Russia’s opinion. Knowing it’s a lost cause, the Russians naturally won’t embarrass themselves by trying. Other than close monitoring, the Russian government has few options right now. After letting out a sigh, Alexander III slowly asked, “Since we can’t stop the Anglo-French alliance and have missed the best window of opportunity, do you all think we should continue the Central Asia campaign?” At its core, launching a war in Central Asia at this moment, aside from assisting their ally Afghanistan, is mostly about taking advantage of the situation. According to the original plan, the Russian government intended to reclaim the Central Asian territories during the Anglo-Franco-Austrian arms race and push the border all the way to the Afghan region. The plan did not include advancing into India. Not because the Russian government lacked ambition, but simply because the Russian Empire currently didn’t have the strength to conquer India. Minister of War Pyotr Vannovsky said, “Of course we must continue. Even if Britain and France form an alliance, the French won’t send troops to fight for the British. As long as we move fast enough and take down the Khanate of Bukhara before the British destroy Afghanistan, we’ll seize the initiative in the war. If we miss this opportunity and let the British eliminate Afghanistan, it will cost us far more to take Central Asia in the future. Besides, we need to consider our international image. We just signed an alliance with Afghanistan. If we betray them immediately, what will our other allies think?” When it comes to fighting the British Army, the Russian military remains confident. Times have changed. Although the Russian Empire suffered heavy losses in two wars with Prussia, it also forged an elite fighting force. Most importantly, it’s unlikely the British government can commit to sending a million regular troops to contest Central Asia with the Russian Empire. If they rely solely on the Indian colonial forces, they will be crushed by the Russian army. And those easy, one-sided victories are exactly the kind of wars the Russian military prefers. Alexander III nodded. The Russian Empire’s international reputation was already in poor shape, and unless absolutely necessary, he did not want to be branded a traitor to his allies. Never mind that in later years Russians often betrayed allies. At this point in time, the Russian government rarely did so. In fact, there had not been a single such betrayal in recent decades. Of course, the main reason was still that betraying an ally offered too little gain while demanding too high a cost. Overall, it simply wasn’t worth it. This time was no exception. Betraying Afghanistan would be easy, but Austria’s opinion was something they couldn’t ignore. One only had to recall how Alexander II had once gone to war with Prussia for the sake of Denmark, a Russian ally. Although the war caused serious losses, it won the Russian government a great deal of prestige. It also laid a solid foundation for the continuation of the Russo-Austrian alliance, or at least, that’s how the Russian government saw it. After all, by the early 1890s, the alliance with Austria no longer brought them much direct benefit. On the contrary, it was the Russian government that gained the most from it. Seeing the Tsar waver, the anti-war Minister of Finance Alisher Gulov hurriedly objected: “Marquis, your view is too one-sided. Central Asia is vast, and those three khanates all hold grudges against us. There’s no chance they would surrender. No matter how successful our military campaign is, it’s impossible to pacify all of Central Asia in just a few months. But the Kingdom of Afghanistan is a different story. The British need only two regiments to force the Afghan government into submission. We all know the terrain of Afghanistan. If the British seize control of the region before we do, any war that follows will be extremely difficult. If the war can’t be ended quickly, it will inevitably turn into a prolonged war of attrition. Backed by India, the British have endless manpower and financial resources to wear us down. In recent years, while the empire’s finances have improved, it’s only a temporary reprieve. An agricultural crisis is looming. Based on the intelligence we’ve collected, the Ministry of Finance estimates that grain export revenues will fall by 11% this year, and even more next year. Now that the British are no longer burdened by an arms race, our empire simply can’t compete with them financially. If we insist on continuing a war with no clear end in sight, the only result will be a mountain of debt. Given the current complexity of the international situation, the Ministry of Finance recommends resolving the Central Asian conflict through diplomatic means and doing our best to maintain the status quo.” There was no way around it. The three Central Asian khanates had once been vassals of the Russian government. But Russia’s ambitions had been too great as they wanted to swallow them whole. During the First Russo-Prussian War, the British had successfully turned them against Russia. Some things simply couldn’t be undone. Once they became traitors, there was no going back. They were destined to fight the Russians to the bitter end. This meant that Central Asia couldn’t be conquered in a single campaign. And with British support behind the scenes, the possibility of a drawn-out war was very high. In contrast, no one had much faith in the Afghan government. As a semi-slave, semi-feudal agrarian state, how could it possibly go toe-to-toe with the British? Using their usual tactics, the British would likely apply both diplomatic and military pressure to force the Afghan government to compromise, and there was a high chance it would work. There had already been many similar successes. In fact, in the original timeline, the Afghan government had also chosen to compromise. But the British had been too greedy and tried to swallow the country whole in one go. Unsurprisingly, the British army easily defeated the Afghan government. Only then did they realize that an Afghanistan without a functioning government was even more dangerous. This was something both the Americans and Soviets would later confirm firsthand. Defeating Afghanistan was easy. The real challenge was ruling it. But for now, that hasn’t been proven yet. All anyone saw was the Afghan government’s current strength, and two regular British regiments were more than enough to deal with it. Military matters were still considered a minor concern. As long as there was money, the Russian government feared nothing. If you open a history book, you’ll find that financial strength was always the weakest point of the Russian Empire. Except for a brief special period, the Russian government was constantly short of money. Because agricultural taxes could be paid in kind, grain exports became the most important source of revenue for the Russian government, accounting for more than half of the country’s total export trade. This agricultural crisis was essentially a struggle among the top three powers, and Russia, as the fourth-largest exporter of raw grain in Europe, was caught in the crossfire through no fault of its own. The decline in grain export revenue didn’t mean the total export volume dropped, but rather that international grain prices had fallen. No matter how you look at it, the British food self-sufficiency program and the French large-scale agricultural development plan had achieved some results. Although the total annual grain imports of the two countries only dropped by a negligible 1-2%, the impact on the international grain market was still significant. With the market experiencing an overall surplus, raw grain prices naturally plummeted. As grain prices fell, the Russian government’s coffers inevitably suffered. Without money, it’s impossible to wage war. Against this backdrop, the Minister of Finance, who controlled the government’s purse strings, passively became the leader of the anti-war faction in the Russian government. But the Minister of War, Pyotr Vannovsky, was unmoved and said, “If the government’s finances are worsening, that’s even more reason to go to war. As long as our plan proceeds smoothly, and we seize Central Asia first, then move on to conquer India, all our problems will be solved. Launching this war may cause temporary financial strain, but the Ministry of Finance can find ways to raise funds. If we don’t fight this war, we’ll never escape our financial troubles.” No doubt about it, the wealth Britain looted from India each year exceeded the entire financial revenue of the Russian government. If Russia really managed to seize India, the financial difficulties facing the Tsarist regime could indeed be resolved. Perhaps because of the setbacks experienced during westward expansion, no one wanted a repeat of that experience. Most of the Russian military supported the idea of marching south to take India. This view also had supporters within the Russian government. After all, executing a southern strategy to seize India meant facing only one enemy—the British. In contrast, pursuing a western strategy into Europe meant going up against all the European powers. If they faced the British and failed, the cost would be relatively limited. No matter how powerful the British might be, they couldn’t possibly push all the way from Central Asia into Siberia. Russia would have plenty of chances to regroup and strike back. But advancing into continental Europe was a different matter. If something went wrong and they were attacked by a coalition of European nations, the consequences would be far more serious. At best, they would suffer heavy losses and end up severely weakened. At worst, it could even lead to the collapse of the empire. In this sense, the Russo-Prussian wars were meaningful for Europe. They served as a wake-up call for the greedy polar bear and made an outstanding contribution to the peace and stability of the European world.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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