Forming an alliance is not something that can be done on a whim. It requires careful weighing of the pros and cons, especially when the potential ally is Britain. This is not the first time France and Britain have formed an alliance. Based on past experiences, the outcomes have never been ideal. Napoleon IV was not fooled by Britain’s flowery rhetoric. No matter how sweetly they talk, nothing counts unless it becomes reality. As long as Britain supports France’s expansion into Central Europe once the alliance is formed, Napoleon IV finds it hard to believe such a windfall would land in his lap for no reason. At the same time, because the offer is so tempting, he is reluctant to reject it outright. Prime Minister Terence Bourquin said, “Your Majesty, the British proposal may look favorable on the surface, but it is full of hidden dangers. On paper, they support our expansion into Central Europe, but in reality they just want us to help contain Austria. Given the current international situation, if we make any move into Central Europe, we will immediately be met with hostility from the rest of Europe. It could even trigger a new round of continental war. If things spiral out of control, I have no faith in the British. Knowing how they operate, even if they don’t stab us in the back, the fact that they won’t add insult to injury would already be generous.” That is the truth. The anti-French coalition only exists in name, and that’s only because France has not posed a significant threat to the rest of Europe. Once they bare their fangs and make the rest of Europe feel threatened, this nominal alliance will quickly turn into a real one. Counting on the British to challenge the European continent side by side with France is even less reliable than having France go it alone. At least when fighting alone, there’s no risk of being stabbed in the back by an ally. Minister of War, Lusquinye Hafize, said, “Prime Minister, everything has two sides. While the British may not have good intentions, if we can make proper use of them, we can still secure considerable benefits for France. There may be many European countries, but most are small. Only a few are truly worth our attention. Aside from the three major powers—Russia, Austria, and Britain—the rest, such as Spain, the Nordic Federation, and the German Federal Empire, barely amount to half a great power when combined. Spain is already our ally and won’t obstruct our eastward expansion. The Nordic Federation is far off in the Baltic and has no conflicting interests with us, making them a potential partner. If Britain can use us to pin down Austria, then why can’t we use them to pin down the Russians? As long as Britain and Russia are truly locked in conflict in Central Asia, Austria alone will be powerless to stop us from annexing all territories west of the Rhine. At worst, we can agree with Austria to divide the region at the Rhine. Given the Habsburgs’ usual approach, they likely won’t go to the bitter end with us. If we can take the Rhineland and Belgium, we will have filled one of our most critical resource gaps.” Ambition certainly exists. It’s just that France’s pro-war faction was born at the wrong time and never had the opportunity to act. They waited and waited, and finally, a turning point has arrived. In the eyes of the French military, this isn’t simply a matter of Britain and Russia checking each other; it’s clearly an opportunity to prepare for a decisive showdown with Austria. With the Habsburg dynasty still standing, France’s claim to continental supremacy can never be fully realized. Only a war can truly determine who is superior. Of course, now isn’t the time to speak openly about such matters. It wouldn’t be good to frighten His Majesty the Emperor, especially since Austria still appears formidable and has a talent for building alliances. If a full-scale war broke out immediately, even though the military is confident, many within the government remain skeptical. Lusquinye Hafize, however, is politically astute. To minimize resistance, he avoided mentioning a showdown with Austria. He even shifted the narrative, turning the idea of war into a proposal to jointly divide the German region with Austria. This not only downplayed the risks but also won the support of domestic capitalists. Minister of the Economy Ezra objected, saying, “No, now is not the time to march east. Our large-scale agricultural development project is still underway. If war breaks out and interrupts it, all our previous investments will go to waste. The German Federal Empire isn’t as weak as everyone assumes. They’ve stationed seventy thousand troops in the Rhineland. Add to that Belgium’s fifty thousand troops, and their total forces reach one hundred and twenty thousand. If the war drags on for one or two months, Austrian reinforcements will arrive. Everyone saw the Russo-Prussian War. Times have changed. When two great powers clash now, it’s a matter of mobilizing over a million troops. Once war begins, there’s no way to determine a winner quickly. Austria also has allies to help share the burden. Meanwhile, we would be fighting alone. The British cannot be relied upon. Hoping the Austrian government will simply compromise is pure fantasy. If they sit back and allow us to annex the territory west of the Rhine, what right would the Habsburgs have to continue ruling the German region?” The Minister of the Economy’s concerns were exactly why everyone was hesitant. Pinning their hopes on Austria compromising was never a reliable plan. Everyone had confidence in France when it came to dealing with any single enemy. The problem was that the enemies weren’t planning to fight one-on-one. These days, most countries on the European continent could put up a strong fight. Even a tiny country like Belgium could raise an army of over a hundred thousand troops. The larger Nordic Federation, if it could manage its internal affairs properly, could potentially mobilize a million. As for Austria, it went without saying. They could easily raise several million troops. If other countries joined the fray, the number of enemies France would face could reach astronomical figures. No matter how capable the French army was, it couldn’t survive being overwhelmed by sheer numbers. And even the French military’s strength was now in doubt. Their performance in overseas colonies had already caused many in the government to question their actual combat capability. Being able to win a one-on-one fight was meaningless. Once a continental war broke out, France would be facing enemies with at least twice their numbers—possibly even three or four times more. Foreign Minister Émile Flourens interrupted, “Gentlemen, you’re going too far. You’re making it sound like just because we form an alliance with the British, we’re automatically going to launch a continental war. In reality, these are two entirely separate issues. What we’re discussing now is simply whether or not to ally with the British. As for expanding into Central Europe, that’s something for the future. Personally, I support an alliance with Britain. For France to break free from its isolation, it needs more allies. Maybe the British are acting with ulterior motives. Maybe they’re only proposing an alliance to ease the pressure they’re facing from Russia and Austria in Central Asia. But aside from the British, we don’t have any better options. We’re not expecting Britain to actually support our expansion into Central Europe. As long as they don’t join an anti-French coalition when we head east, that’s already good enough. Besides, forming an alliance with Britain doesn’t mean we’re obligated to follow their lead. Austria has no real interests in Central Asia. Its involvement is purely because of its alliance with Russia, and they’re not likely to go to war with Britain just for Russia’s sake. Britain wants us to contain Austria, so we just make a symbolic gesture. After all, Austria is also hoping to provoke a war between Britain and Russia. We can absolutely cooperate on that front.” The reality is harsh, but it must be faced. France is indeed powerful—but so powerful that it has no friends. Maybe Britain’s promises won’t come true, but just having them as an ally will greatly improve France’s diplomatic position. At its core, this is about mutual need. As long as neither side drags the other down, that’s already enough to justify the alliance. … At the Schönbrunn Palace in Vienna, ever since receiving news that Britain and France were considering forming an alliance, Franz had been deeply unsettled. While it appeared that Europe was dividing into two opposing blocs, geography alone meant that Russia could remain sheltered in the rear, while Austria would be forced to bear the brunt of pressure from two great powers on its own. The threat on land was not yet fully apparent. France still held the military edge, and Britain’s land forces could largely be ignored. But at sea, it was a different matter. Just as the Austrian navy was nearing the capability to pose a serious threat to the Royal Navy, the Anglo-French alliance meant Austria would once again have to keep its head down. This meant that in overseas competition, Austria would once more be at a disadvantage, unable to match Britain and France. And that wasn’t all. Franz had thought further. As Austria and France both continued to grow stronger, Britain was clearly beginning to feel the pressure. Under such circumstances, it wasn’t out of the question that Britain might scheme to provoke a war between Austria and France, using conflict to weaken both potential enemies. The Anglo-Russian rivalry, while it seemed like mutual containment, might just as easily serve to create conditions for a fallout between Austria and France. Don’t be fooled by the intensity of the Anglo-Russian standoff. Even if the two nations truly went to war, they could still unite later if the continental situation spun out of control. If Britain did manage to spark a war between Austria and France, and the two sides wore each other down, the British government could then bring in Russia to intervene, preventing either side from securing a decisive victory. If Franz were in Britain’s position, he admitted he might do the same. After all, if Austria and France were allowed to continue growing unchecked, there would be little room left for Britain to influence the continent in the future. Still, speculation remained just that—speculation. Until something actually happened, Franz dared not jump to conclusions. The French weren’t fools. With a third-party power poised to take advantage, rushing into a decisive war with Austria clearly did not serve their interests. Austria was no different. Unless they completely lost their minds, the Austrian government wasn’t about to recklessly launch an attack against the French. … Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “After multiple verifications, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed that Britain and France are in the process of negotiating an alliance. The specific details of the negotiations are unknown, but it is certain that there is likely content aimed directly at us. Despite the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ repeated attempts to disrupt the Anglo-French alliance, we have had little success. Even when we proposed a reorganization of the Triple Alliance, both Britain and France rejected it.” If they cannot stop it, then they must find a way to join the alliance and split it from within. This diplomatic tactic, which has always worked in the past, will not be effective here. However, this also confirms the reality that the Anglo-French alliance is aimed at Austria. Chancellor Karl said, “If we can’t stop the Anglo-French alliance, then the importance of the Russo-Austrian alliance has greatly increased. From now on, it will not only be the Russians who need us, but we will also need them. In the upcoming Central Asian war, we will have to put significant effort into supporting the Russian government. The four great powers of Europe are now split into two opposing alliances. I fear that for a long time, international relations will remain in turmoil. If tensions escalate and a spark ignites, it could even lead to a new round of continental warfare. From now on, we must prepare for the worst.” There is no choice; the international situation is not subject to personal will. Despite Franz’s efforts to avoid it, the situation has still developed into a confrontation between two great alliances. In some ways, this result is not so bad. A 2v2 scenario is better than a 1v3. The first to feel the impact of the Anglo-French alliance are the Russians. As British and French relations with Russia worsen, the Russo-Austrian alliance becomes even more solidified, ensuring Austria’s security on the Eastern front.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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