While increasing its stockpile of weapons and equipment, Austria also ramped up investment in the development of new military technologies. For example: tanks that move as slowly as turtles, airplanes with a range of just over 300 kilometers, and oversized, clunky artillery—all of these needed improvement. In fact, with the continual advancement of technology, the outcome of war is increasingly determined by weaponry and logistics. Preparing for war isn’t just about stockpiling arms and ammunition; other strategic materials must also be kept in step. This involves a wide range of areas, as many materials are dual-use suitable for both military and civilian purposes and their production isn’t limited to state-owned enterprises. The vast majority comes from private industry. To avoid arousing external suspicion and exposing the government’s strategic plans, massively expanding the stockpile of materials is out of the question. But this concern should really be the enemy’s problem. After all, Austria has a well-developed industrial chain and can supply its own raw materials. If war breaks out, Austria can ramp up production much faster than its rivals. Preparations are one thing, but no one knows exactly when the war will actually begin. The Austrian government is beginning to prepare for war largely based on an analysis of international trends and the growing possibility of a continental conflict. From the current situation, whoever fires the first shot will immediately push the fence-sitting states of Central Europe into the opposing camp. Don’t be fooled by Belgium’s current pro-Austrian stance, or the friendliness shown by countries like the Netherlands and Switzerland toward Austria. This is all based on the overarching premise that the French government is being aggressively overbearing. In the original timeline, during the era of Napoleon III, France had ambitions to annex Belgium and repeatedly interfered in Belgian internal affairs, placing the two nations at odds. By the time of World War I, Belgium ended up siding with the Entente powers, but this was more out of necessity than the result of masterful British or French diplomacy, as outsiders liked to claim. If the German Empire hadn’t marched through Belgium to attack France, why would the Belgians have entered the war? Wouldn’t staying neutral have been better? The Belgians weren’t stupid. Joining a world war as a tiny country was essentially becoming cannon fodder, with little to gain. Maybe Belgium alone isn’t worth much mention. But what if you added the North German Federation? Franz knew all too well the nature of those petty German principalities. Just look at the Austro-Prussian War in the original timeline. Everyone had agreed to stand together against Prussia, but in the end, it was just Austria and Prussia facing off one-on-one. What should have been a balanced fight turned into a battle where Austria found itself at a major disadvantage due to these states dragging their feet. If you expect them to fight to the death, the enemy would have to be knocking at their door. Otherwise, those guys are only good for chanting slogans and keeping up appearances. … Ever since Austria’s attempt to form an anti-French alliance was thwarted, the mood within the French government had shifted. People suddenly realized that the dark cloud hanging over France had vanished. This sudden change left many feeling unprepared. With the help of capital interests stirring the pot, the voices of the pro-war faction grew louder. External developments also influenced Napoleon IV’s judgment. “It seems Austria isn’t as formidable as we thought. Without British support, the Austrian government can’t form an anti-French containment.” A shift in perspective naturally led to changes in political decisions. Napoleon IV had become less concerned with Austrian affairs. Palace of Versailles After skimming through the documents in his hands, Napoleon IV asked uncertainly, “Have you made the necessary preparations to restart the international coal price negotiations?” To hinder France’s economic development, Britain and Austria had spearheaded the formation of an international coal export alliance to control global coal prices. As a result, the price of imported coal in France was at least fifty percent higher than in Britain and Austria. With higher energy costs, the cost of industrial production naturally increased. This directly caused many French industrial and commercial products to lose their competitiveness on the international market. Despite trying every possible method, the French government and the business community had still failed to dismantle the international coal export alliance. Because the International Coal Export Alliance held control over France’s energy supply, it often tried to interfere with French industry and commerce. There are two sides to everything. Faced with soaring energy prices, France was the first to sound the alarm for energy conservation. For steam engines and boilers of the same output, French products typically consumed several percent less coal. In some cases, particularly efficient models could save between twenty to thirty percent. In addition to reduced coal consumption, the French also developed several coal substitutes, such as charcoal. In most applications, French boilers and steam engines could operate on charcoal, and some machines could even burn firewood directly. Of course, these technological innovations were not all-powerful. Alternatives remained just that, alternatives, and there was still a noticeable gap between them and the original standard. As a result, French industrial and commercial products inevitably suffered slight shortcomings in quality and had to be used with some compromise. The most typical example was steel. Overall, the quality of French steel was the poorest, even worse than that of Russia. Minister of the Economy Ezra said firmly, “Your Majesty, please rest assured. For the sake of healthy domestic economic development, the Ministry of the Economy will do everything in its power to lower international coal trade prices.” Foreign Minister Émile Flourens echoed the sentiment: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will fully support the efforts of the Ministry of the Economy. We have already begun lobbying the British. From what we can see, the British Coal Export Association is showing signs of compromise. As long as the British soften their stance, we can pressure Belgium and the North German Federation to follow suit.” The conflict was simply a matter of interest. If the original purpose of the International Coal Export Alliance was to suppress the French economy, now it was purely about profit. In a sense, coal was a necessity. No matter how hard the French tried to find substitutes, they still needed to import large quantities. Given this situation, suppliers naturally sought to raise prices in order to reap huge profits. Convincing the British to ease their stance was simple, just throw money at the problem. As long as they could be compensated through other channels for the profits they would lose in coal exports, the issue could be resolved easily. As for the coal suppliers in Belgium and the North German Federation, they were simply out of luck. Their countries were too weak to influence the outcome. Napoleon IV fell into deep thought. On the surface, this was merely a negotiation over coal prices, but in reality, it was a probe of the international community. If the plan succeeded without triggering a strong international backlash, then the French government would no longer need to act so cautiously in the future. “Since you’re all prepared, then go ahead and restart the negotiations. But be careful with your methods, don’t cause a major incident.” It was clear that Napoleon IV did not entirely trust his bureaucrats. This had much to do with the structure of France’s political system. The Ministry of the Economy was by far the most heavily influenced by capital interests, and officials’ political achievements were tied to those interests from the start. If not warned in advance, these people might act entirely according to the will of profit, and it was not impossible they could even provoke a war. France was not yet ready for war. Napoleon IV was not delusional, he did not believe that France, in its current state, could challenge the world. … At the headquarters of the British Coal Association in London, a group of business tycoons were in the middle of a heated debate. An elderly, portly man said excitedly, “Gentlemen, our chance to make a fortune has arrived. The French have proposed that if we break away from the International Coal Export Alliance and lower coal prices by one-fifth, they will reduce tariffs on certain goods. This tariff reduction is not for all companies, but exclusively for the industries owned by members of our coal association. Let us rejoice!” Applause broke out as many in the room were overwhelmed with excitement at the prospect of great profits. The ability to export goods to the French market at lower tariffs than domestic competitors was a clearly advantageous opportunity. But while some were elated, others were dismayed. Not everyone stood to gain. The small coal mine owners were the biggest losers. With limited capital, they lacked the means to diversify into multiple industries. For them, selling coal at high prices was the best way to maximize profit. A partial tariff reduction was meaningless to them since they had no other goods to sell. In contrast, large financial groups stood to gain the most and could rake in substantial profits. As the representative of the small coal mine owners in the association, Mihajlović immediately objected: “No! France is Britain’s greatest enemy. Any relaxation of pressure on France is a betrayal of Britain. Those fools in the government have already rushed into an alliance with the French. Are we now supposed to compromise for the sake of a few insignificant profits?” The elderly man smiled and said, “Mihajlović, don’t forget we are capitalists. When money is handed to us, there is no reason not to take it. Suppressing France is the government’s business. Your concern is just about protecting your own interests, but you really do not need to worry. Even if you don’t have other industries, we can cooperate! I believe everyone here wouldn’t mind helping you fill the gaps in your industries. If that really does not work, you can always choose to sell your coal mines. Don’t worry, everyone will offer a good price. In any case, we won’t let you suffer losses.” Mihajlović’s face changed drastically. This was desperation showing. Before this, although the profits from coal mines were decent, the small mine owners only had poor-quality mines that the big financial groups didn’t care for. Now things were different. Controlling the coal mines meant controlling coal exports. Holding those shares allowed negotiations with the French to obtain tariff benefits and push other industrial goods onto the market. It’s not that Britain lacks markets as that’s impossible. Any industrial power always needs more markets. British financial groups had long envied the French market, but the French government knew it couldn’t compete and relied on tariff barriers. Now that a crack had finally opened, everyone naturally wanted to rush in. As for the consequences of lower coal export prices, what did that have to do with them? As long as they could make money, who cared what would happen in the future?
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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