The situation escalated too quickly, catching European leaders off guard. The negotiations breaking down so fast was completely unexpected! Under normal circumstances, wouldn’t there be months of heated arguments first? Only after making full preparations for war and stirring up public sentiment would things truly fall apart. Mediation was a must. Even if only for the sake of maintaining a presence, statements had to be made. Before April had even ended, the Austrian government received diplomatic notes from more than a dozen countries, all urging restraint and peace. Perhaps moved by this display of sincerity, the Austrian government made a concession and decided to restart the second round of negotiations on April 29, 1882. However, the international mediation proposed by various nations was politely declined. … Due to the rising tensions in the Near East, even Sir Gladstone, known as Britain’s greatest prime minister, could no longer remain calm. Gladstone said, “Gentlemen, the situation is already clear. The Austrian government is determined to go to war and the massacre incident is merely their excuse. From Britain’s standpoint, I do not wish to see anything that disrupts stability in the Near East. Unfortunately, France is in the midst of a civil war, so even if we wanted to intervene, we are unable to. What we need to discuss today is this: If the situation in the Near East undergoes a major shift, how can we ensure that Britain’s interests remain unaffected?” Foreign Secretary George stated, “Being affected is inevitable. At the very least, our interests in the Ottoman Empire are bound to be lost. If we simply want to make up for the losses caused by the war, we could negotiate a trade of interests with Austria. However, I do not recommend this approach. Given the current situation, the Ottomans’ defeat is only a matter of time. What happens next is far less certain. If the Austrians merely want to strike the Ottomans to divert domestic tensions, that’s one thing. But if Austria outright annexes the Ottoman Empire, the threat to us will be far too great.” After speaking, George stood up, walked to the hanging map, and pointed with his pipe. “There will only be Persia left between us and India.” This was a reality that had to be faced. The Ottoman Empire was in decline, but Persia was in an even worse state. Expecting Persia to stop Austria was completely unrealistic. To say that “the Austrian government has no interest in India,” perhaps only Franz would believe that. The British government certainly wouldn’t. Back when Austria extended its influence to the Persian Gulf, the British government was already alarmed. The only reason they weren’t overly concerned was because the sea still separated them, and they had full confidence in the Royal Navy. But now, things are different. If Austria continues expanding unchecked, they will soon become neighbors on land. And they certainly can’t expect the Redcoats to single-handedly dominate the battlefield and intimidate their enemies, can they? Colonial Secretary Primrose complained, “This is an absolute disaster. Given the current situation, the Austrian government is clearly set on annexing the Ottoman Empire. There is no need to doubt their ambition. If we want to avoid a war to defend India, we must stop the Austrians from advancing beyond Mesopotamia.” The harsh reality mirrored Primrose’s mood. As Colonial Secretary, any issue related to India’s security could result in an irreparable political disaster for him. Foreign Secretary George decisively added, “No, this is nothing. The worst is yet to come! If the Austrians don’t act alone and instead invite the Russians to carve up the Ottoman Empire with them, we will be facing threats from two great powers at once. Given the Austrian government’s usual conduct, the likelihood of this happening is very high. In fact, with the plan to divide India still on the table, an Austro-Russian alliance could continue.” If Britain were attacked on land by both Austria and Russia, there would be nothing more to discuss. No country in the world could withstand such a blow, no matter how long Britain had been entrenched in India. Faced with this terrifying prospect, Gladstone declared without hesitation, “Immediately halt support for the French revolutionaries and help Napoleon IV stabilize his domestic situation as quickly as possible.” Britain needed allies and never before had allies been more crucial than this exact moment. If the dreaded Austro-Russian combination emerged, Britain would not be able to hold the line without a buffer. Foreign Secretary George added, “The French alone won’t be enough. We must find more allies. The Nordic Federation could be brought in, and perhaps it is time we accelerate the establishment of a North German state.” The aftershocks of the Russo-Prussian War had erupted. Without Prussia as Britain’s precious hired thug, France alone could no longer hold the balance. … One crisis had barely settled when another erupted. Inspired by the revolutionary wave sweeping across Europe, Ottoman nationalism also began to surge. After the “massacre incident” broke out, Ottoman nationalists felt their dignity had been insulted, believing that Austria was interfering in their internal affairs. At a critical moment when Austria and the Ottomans were restarting negotiations, a massive anti-imperialist movement erupted in the Ottoman Empire. Encouraged by the patriotic youths, crowds in Ankara gathered in the embassy district, holding banners and protesting. This, in itself, wasn’t a big problem. Major powers were used to being protested against and this was part of the routine. After experiencing it enough times, it hardly fazed them anymore. The real issue was that during the protest, an unexpected incident occurred. The Greek ambassador Sextus was beaten to death by the demonstrators. Now, things have escalated significantly. Even Franz was bewildered. What did this have to do with the Greeks? Surely, no one would claim that Greek imperialism had invaded the Ottoman Empire and demand blood for blood? Assuming the worst intentions, Franz had every reason to suspect that Austrian agents were behind this, but there was no evidence. More news soon arrived, unraveling the mystery for everyone. It was said that while the Greek ambassador Sextus was returning from an outing, his carriage accidentally ran over a child crossing the street. This enraged the already fervent Ottoman crowd, and the situation quickly escalated into violence. If the great powers could not be provoked, did that mean even a small country like Greece was untouchable? By the time the Ottoman police arrived at the scene, the unfortunate Sextus, along with his coachman and bodyguards, had already met their fate and been sent to see God. The brutal killing of a foreign ambassador meant that no matter how the Ottoman government tried to explain, it was useless. Initially, the Ottoman authorities had been preparing to hold Sextus accountable for the carriage accident. But since the person responsible was now dead, there was no one left to bear responsibility. At this point, the narrative had completely changed. Now, Greece had become the victim, and naturally, they refused to acknowledge the carriage accident as the cause. The Greek government firmly insisted that Sextus had been brutally murdered by the barbaric Ottomans and demanded that the Ottoman government hand over all suspects for an investigation by Greek authorities. And yes, they meant all. The Greek government declared that every protester present that day was a suspect and demanded that the Ottoman government surrender them all for questioning. This was impossible. Over ten thousand people had participated in the protest that day. No matter how much the Ottoman government wanted to calm things down, there was no way they could hand over that many people. … After understanding the cause and effect of the situation, Franz chuckled and said, “So, the Greeks are trying to take advantage of the situation.” The “ambassador assassination case” had given the Greek government the perfect opportunity to intervene. Austria needed a justifiable reason for war, and by tying the Greek ambassador’s murder to the “massacre incident,” it would undoubtedly make Austria’s case more convincing. At this point, the Ottoman government had no chance of clearing its name. There might have been some exaggeration in the “massacre incident,” but in the “ambassador assassination case,” a foreign ambassador had actually died. Foreign Minister Wessenberg replied, “Yes. Not long after the incident, the Greek government reached out to us, expressing their willingness to join forces in punishing the barbaric Ottoman Empire. The Greeks have shown a cooperative attitude, but their ambitions are quite large. They are not only interested in the Aegean islands but also want a share of the Anatolian Peninsula.” As a nation burdened by its historical legacy, Greece’s great power aspirations were inevitable. Unfortunately, Greece had terrible luck. Every single one of its neighbors was powerful enough to crush them. No matter how ambitious they were, they had no choice but to hold back. The Ottoman Empire was their only real opportunity for territorial expansion. If they missed this chance, they would have to go home and keep dreaming. Franz, appearing indifferent, said, “The world is fair. Rewards and efforts must always be proportional. If the Greeks want a share of the Anatolian Peninsula, let them prove their strength first. Tell the Greeks that in this war, spoils will be distributed based on contributions. If they want more land, they must make greater contributions on the battlefield.” There was no doubt that “distribution based on contributions’ was a trap. Battlefield contributions required strength, and even a weakened Ottoman Empire was still beyond Greece’s capability. With their meager resources, if they couldn’t control their greed, they might lose everything. In this harsh world, power always determined how spoils were divided. Hoping for fairness was even less reliable than hoping for Austria’s moral integrity.
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