London The emergence of the Anti-Ottoman Coalition completely shattered the British government’s previous plans. At this point, Prime Minister Gladstone was no longer concerned with saving the Ottomans but rather with how to ensure the security of India. “What’s the situation in France?” Foreign Secretary George shook his head. “It’s a complete disaster. That empire is as fragile as paper, ready to collapse at the slightest pressure. The bourgeois revolutionaries, the republicans, the social revolutionaries, the Orléanist restorationists, the Bourbon restorationists, the Italian independence movement… It’s unimaginable how a single country could have so many anti-government factions. How did the Bonaparte dynasty even manage to hold on this long?” Looking at the deeply worried British Foreign Secretary, one might find it hard to believe that most of these chaotic factions had, at some point, received financial support from the British government. After years of relentless effort, these investments were finally bearing fruit. But unfortunately, at the worst possible time, producing nothing but unintended consequences. There was no point in pointing fingers since everyone played the same game. While the British government supported anti-government groups in France, the French government was similarly funding anti-British organizations. Gladstone nodded grimly. “The French have certainly been a bit too restless. The Pandora’s box that Napoleon himself opened has, at last, come back to haunt his empire.” After speaking, Gladstone suddenly realized something was off. It seemed that Britain had also shot itself in the foot. Without their generous support, the French revolutionary factions wouldn’t have grown so powerful, and the current civil war in France wouldn’t have happened. If France hadn’t fallen into civil war, Austria would never have dared to launch a war without securing its western front. Realizing this, Gladstone let out a bitter sigh. “It seems that both we and the French have been played by Austria. We’ve been led by the nose right into this situation.” Foreign Secretary George waved his hand dismissively. “Prime Minister, you’re being too pessimistic. The way things have unfolded is nothing more than a coincidence. Austrian influence may be at play here, but there’s no way they could have predicted that France would collapse so easily.” From a strategic standpoint, Austria had indeed become the biggest winner. At first glance, Britain appeared to be at a disadvantage, but in reality, it had also gained significantly. Whether through short-selling the franc, dumping goods to crush competitors, or seizing French overseas interests, Britain had won on multiple fronts. The only miscalculation was underestimating France’s internal contradictions. France’s internal turmoil was caused by multiple factors.Britain and Austria undermining its financial system and flooding its markets with cheap goods were merely catalysts for a crisis that was already brewing. During the early stages of the Industrial Revolution, France quickly achieved industrialization thanks to its abundant capital. However, as industrialization progressed, the country faced a growing shortage of raw materials. To sustain industrial production, France had no choice but to import large quantities of resources. Due to its reliance on imported raw materials, the cost of industrial production in France remained high. This wasn’t a major issue when the economy operated within a closed system, but after joining the free trade system, the situation became increasingly challenging. To gain a competitive edge in the market, capitalists sought every possible way to reduce industrial production costs. One of which was the intensified exploitation of the working class. Where there is oppression, there is resistance. The brutal exploitation by capitalists directly led to the rise of the French labor movement. Beyond internal factors, France’s annexation of the Italian territories further intensified social and economic tensions. With the formation of Greater France, the domestic market expanded significantly. However, this also led to increased demand for industrial raw materials and heightened employment pressure. Due to economic disparities, wages in the annexed Italian territories were significantly lower than in France. As a result, large numbers of Italian workers migrated to mainland France in search of employment. While this influx of labor contributed to the growth of French industry and commerce, it also emboldened capitalists to exploit workers even more ruthlessly. During the era of Napoleon III, France’s industrial sector was still relatively small, and the demand for raw materials was not yet overwhelming. As a result, French industry and commerce did not bear excessively high production costs, and the economy flourished. By the time of Napoleon IV, France’s total industrial output had increased, but so had industrial costs, leading to declining corporate profits. The situation worsened after France joined the free trade system, where market competition became more brutal, and labor disputes intensified. Despite the looming crisis, the instability remained largely confined to the lower classes. Capitalist control over the media ensured that labor conflicts were either downplayed or deliberately misrepresented, hiding the crisis in blind spots beyond the ruling class’s view. Before the revolution erupted, France’s economy still appeared prosperous on the surface, leaving the British government unaware that the empire was already weak at its core. Influenced by long-standing perceptions of France’s strength, geopolitical considerations, and the assertiveness of the French government, the British government ultimately concluded that France remained its greatest threat. Naturally, the greatest threat had to be met with the most forceful suppression. Austria also regarded France as its primary adversary, and as a result, France—caught in the middle—found itself crushed under the joint suppression of the world’s two most powerful nations. A series of coordinated blows shattered its once-mighty facade. As internal conflicts escalated, France spiraled completely out of control. This was the shared failure of successive governments. Realizing this, Gladstone swiftly shifted away from this sensitive topic. “What’s done is done. There’s no point in dwelling on it,” he said, “The key issue now is figuring out how to help Napoleon IV stabilize the situation, restore France’s strength, and ease the pressure we are about to face.” Chancellor of the Exchequer Hugh Childers analyzed, “To stabilize France’s situation, we must first stabilize its economy. This will be extremely difficult. Our own domestic economy is in poor shape, and the government cannot simply stop capitalists from engaging in dumping. The revolution in Paris has terrified the French bourgeoisie, and Napoleon IV has already secured the support of domestic financial groups. Right now, money is not his problem.” France’s economic crisis was largely caused by Britain and Austria transferring their industrial overcapacity. The quickest short-term solution for France would be to protect its domestic market. However, this directly contradicts the principles of the free trade agreement, which lies at the core of Anglo-Austrian economic interests. The British government had no intention of making sacrifices for France and would never allow such a breach to go unchecked. If France were to unilaterally violate the agreement without consequences, other nations facing similar difficulties might follow suit. Decades of British efforts to establish the free trade system would collapse overnight. Napoleon IV had refrained from announcing France’s withdrawal from the free trade system precisely to avoid provoking Britain and Austria and losing international support. Gladstone fell into deep thought. This was indeed a dilemma. If the British government relented, the French would undoubtedly impose trade barriers. The result? A worsening economic crisis at home, increased domestic turmoil, and angry capitalists who would not hesitate to overthrow the government. After a brief moment of hesitation, Gladstone made his choice. He had to put Britain first. As Prime Minister, his duty was to the British people. “Increase our diplomatic support and leverage our influence to rally more people behind Napoleon IV. If possible, we should first deal with the Orléans and Bourbon dynasties. As long as they refrain from taking action, the French military will remain intact, and this rebellion can be quelled quickly.” There was no other choice. Even though Napoleon III had sought to purge the military of officers loyal to the previous dynasties after coming to power, influence is not something that can be completely eradicated. The Paris revolution had not been suppressed because certain factions within the French army were deliberately holding back. Many troops would arrive at the battlefield only to put on a show of effort without real commitment. George nodded. “The Foreign Office has already made contact with both the Orléans and Bourbon dynasties. This is not the outcome they wanted either. We are planning to arrange a meeting between representatives of all three royal houses in the near future to mediate their differences as much as possible.” France’s situation was dire. Both the Orléans and Bourbon dynasties were at a disadvantage in this round of power struggles. Even if the Bonaparte regime collapsed, neither of them was in a position to restore their rule. In Eastern countries, rival royal families would have already fought to the death, leaving no room for compromise. However, Europe—especially France—was different. The three royal houses each represented the interests of distinct noble factions, effectively serving as figureheads for competing interest groups. The House of Orléans had not exterminated the Bonaparte-aligned nobility, and when Napoleon III took power, he likewise refrained from executing Orléanist nobles en masse. Under the tradition of rarely executing nobles, so-called “purges” were nothing more than sending political losers back home. Once home, many of these defeated figures still remained immensely wealthy and retained significant local influence. No one was willing to be permanently sidelined. These disillusioned nobles became the financial backers of restoration efforts, while the ones actually carrying out these attempts were those whose families had fallen into decline due to losing in power struggles. For them, the best way to return to the center of power and restore their family’s former glory was through royal restoration. With wealthy sponsors in place and individuals eager to fight for their cause, it was no surprise that France’s royalist factions remained a persistent force. Once out of power, these royal houses retained only their influence. They lacked the actual means to command loyalist forces. Aside from Napoleon III, who was an exception, the Orléans and Bourbon dynasties had not been particularly active in leading restoration efforts. Mediating these conflicts was, in reality, just a matter of redistributing interests. As long as the powerful factions behind the scenes could reach a compromise, the push for restoration could be postponed. … The actions of the British did not affect the operations of the Anti-Turkish Coalition. Under the leadership of the Austrian government, Austria, Russia, Montenegro, and Greece held an Anti-Turkish Conference in Vienna. After a brief exchange, the representatives of the four nations unanimously agreed that only by overthrowing the barbaric and brutal Ottoman government could the Ottoman people be brought into civilized society. On May 16, 1882, the representatives of the four countries formally signed the Anti-Turkish Alliance in Vienna, making the overthrow of the Ottoman government and the destruction of the Ottoman Empire their ultimate mission. The day after the alliance was signed, the Austrian government officially declared war on the Ottoman Empire, citing the Ottomans’ refusal to hand over the culprits as justification. Within the following week, Greece, Montenegro, and the Russian Empire each declared war on the Ottoman Empire for their own respective reasons, marking the full outbreak of the Third Near East War. Gaining several allies had both advantages and disadvantages. The most immediate impact was the need for Austria to adjust its war strategy. The war had erupted too suddenly, and Russia, Montenegro, and Greece were all unprepared. Austria could supply them with resources, but mobilizing their armies would still take time. To avoid the embarrassing situation where Austrian forces would be fighting on the front lines while its allies merely cheered from the rear, Franz decisively ordered the military to delay the offensive. A bizarre situation unfolded. Although the Near East War had officially begun, only the Austrian navy was taking action.
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