“Hmph!” “The Austrians are counting on the fact that we dare not…” The words reached his lips, but Nicholas II swallowed them back. There was no helping it. The Russian government truly did not dare to tear up the alliance. As long as the treaty still existed, there were restraints. At most, the Austrian government would play tricks behind the scenes. In public, it would not move openly against the Russian Empire. Once the alliance was gone, it would no longer be a matter of restricting strategic materials, but of openly supporting independence movements. “Dismembering the Russian Empire” was a shared dream of European politicians, and Austria was no exception. Domestic rebels were already troublesome enough. If a world hegemon were to openly back them, the situation would become even harder to contain. Nicholas II’s strategic vision was mediocre, but he was thoroughly familiar with the rules of political games. He knew how to use those rules in ways most favorable to the Russian Empire. “Enough. Since the Austrians are evading responsibility, we will set these foreign affairs aside for now. Once we catch our breath, there will be time to settle accounts with them later. As allies, if we request assistance from them, the Austrian government cannot possibly make no response at all, can it?” Endurance was unavoidable. Although the Russian Bear was accustomed to acting rashly, that did not mean it was incapable of restraint. At present, so many countries were undermining Russia that it was obvious the Russian government had offended almost everyone. Even if the Austrian government were willing to support Russia, there was little it could actually do. For the Austrian government, Russia was an ally, but so were the other European countries. Since this was infighting among allies, the only option was to muddle through and smooth things over. Nicholas II harbored no illusions that the Austrian government would truly rein in the other states. What he primarily wanted was the lifting of the materials “embargo.” Since that goal had not been achieved, he would settle for the next best option and seek direct assistance from the Austrian government instead. Allies had obligations to help one another. Although asking the Holy Roman Empire to send troops to suppress rebellions was somewhat humiliating, compared with stabilizing the situation as quickly as possible, pride was truly insignificant. Foreign Minister Mikhailovich reported, “The Holy Roman government has agreed to provide us with military aid: thirty thousand rifles, one thousand machine guns, five hundred artillery pieces, and one hundred tanks. As for our request for troops to help suppress the rebellions, they rejected it on the grounds of ‘non-interference in allied internal affairs.’ However, they have promised to guarantee the logistical supply of our forces on the Indian front. Once the world war ends, they will immediately resume full material exports.” The quantity of weapons sounded impressive, yet one critical thing was missing: ammunition. Weapons without sufficient ammunition were nothing more than clubs once they reached the soldiers’ hands. If they wanted to be even more unscrupulous, they could simply delay delivery a little, or play games with the delivery location. In that case, Russia might not even get those “clubs.” For example, they could claim the weapons were being delivered to Russian forces on the Indian front. “Non-interference in internal affairs” sounded noble enough, as if the Holy Roman government were respecting the sovereignty of its allies. But that only raised a glaring question. If they truly did not want to interfere, then why provide weapons at all? What angered people most was that, as the central authority, the Holy Roman government had clearly failed to rein in its subordinates. The main force backing the Polish independence movement was none other than the Kingdom of Prussia. In fact, this was not the first time Prussia had pulled something like this. Ever since Prussia rejoined the Holy Roman Empire, it had grown increasingly bold. At first, it maintained secret contacts with Polish independence groups. Later on, it openly sheltered the so-called “remnants of the United Prussian-Polish Commonwealth.” Among the current Polish rebel forces, all mid to high-ranking officers had served in the Prussian army, while more than half of the junior officers also came from Prussian military backgrounds. The chaos in Warsaw now was less a Polish independence uprising than a continuation of a Russo–Prussian War by other means. Without at least tacit approval from the Holy Roman government, how could Prussia possibly dare to go this far? If one argued that Prussia and Poland shared historical ties, then Prussia’s support for Polish independence could barely be justified. But what about backing Lithuanian independence? What was that supposed to be? Money, manpower, materiel—none of it came free. This was not about looking down on Prussia, but with their financial situation, it simply could not afford such large-scale operations on its own. And Prussia was not the only one stirring trouble. There was also Sweden backing Finnish independence, Greece supporting Bulgarian independence, and others backing Ukrainian independence… Piece by piece, incident after incident, all signs ultimately pointed back to the Holy Roman government. Given the current international situation, there was only one power capable of orchestrating so many countries to stab the Russian Empire in the back at the same time. Apart from the Holy Roman Empire, there was no second candidate. Fully aware of who was pulling the strings, Nicholas II still chose to seek assistance from the Holy Roman Empire. In essence, this was a political signal: Russia could no longer afford to play this game. It was an admission of who the world’s true boss was, and a plea for them to stop tormenting their lesser ally. Unfortunately, politics was not a game. Bowing one’s head in surrender did not mean the matter was over. The response from the Holy Roman Empire fell far short of what the Russian government had hoped for. This world war was the final great division of the world. Unless the Holy Roman Empire itself fell, there would never be another opportunity like it. To say that strategic material exports to Russia would only resume after the war was effectively to declare outright that this round of world division had nothing to do with the Russian Empire. For the Russian government, this was nothing short of a catastrophe. Russia had paid dearly for this world war. Even after civil war erupted, Russian forces at the front had not been withdrawn. Of course, even if they wanted to pull those troops back, they could not. No matter how one looked at it, more than a million Russian soldiers had fought and bled in this war, making undeniable contributions to the world conflict. Yet when it came to dividing the spoils, contributions alone were not enough. Strength mattered just as much. A Russia torn by civil war clearly lacked the ability to compete with other powers for the prizes. In the end, how much Russia could obtain would depend entirely on the Holy Roman government’s sense of decency. Without even thinking about it, one could guess that even if Russia received a share, it would amount to nothing more than scraps. And yet Nicholas II could not refuse. If he did, life for the Russian Empire would only become even more painful. There were only so many spoils to go around. The fewer the claimants, the larger each share became. Removing the Russian Empire, that massive giant, was especially good news for the others. The Holy Roman government had already made it clear that it was abandoning India. What remained was Europe tearing itself apart over the rest. Once Russia was kicked out, everyone else could eat their fill. In the past, no one would have dared to offend the Russian Empire. But now the stakes were enormous, so enormous that they were enough to drive entire nations mad. Coupled with the Holy Roman Empire’s subtle but unmistakable hints, the ambitions of every country were inflamed. If the Russian government did not agree now, then the hunt for the bear would truly begin. … Political struggles are ultimately settled by hard power. With the main body of the Russian army tied down at the front, the troops sent to suppress domestic uprisings were all newly formed units. Rabble fighting rabble meant both sides were evenly matched in the worst possible way, and the pacification campaigns dragged on without results. The Russian forces on the Indian front were still holding up. Fighting alongside their allies, they had the Austrian government backing them, so at least food and basic supplies were not an immediate concern. The troops in the Far East were far less fortunate. As French laborers rose in revolt across Siberia, all the supplies stockpiled by the Russian government along the routes were seized and turned into provisions for the rebels. Cut off from domestic supply lines, the Russian forces in the Far East could rely only on smuggling to stay alive. Even though the smugglers in the region were doing everything they could, the Qing Empire itself was an agricultural country. As long as you had money, essentials like grain, cloth, tents, and cotton uniforms could still be bought. Medicines, weapons and ammunition, aircraft parts, and other specialized supplies were another matter entirely. After the various powers imposed a blockade on Russia, the major international arms dealers vanished overnight. This completely severed the Russian army’s ability to acquire large quantities of weapons and ammunition through smuggling. Every bullet fired was one less in reserve, forcing the troops to count every shot. Aircraft and airships were in an even worse position. Aircraft parts of that era had extremely short service lives and usually needed replacement after only a few sorties. Lacking sufficient spare parts, the Russian air forces in the Far East were forced to drastically reduce their missions. After struggling on for a while, they were ultimately grounded. The Russian army may have remained brave, but under such logistical constraints, flesh and blood could only go so far against machine guns and artillery. After suffering a horrific eighty thousand casualties, on October 24, 1905, the Japanese army captured Vladivostok. Nearly fifty thousand Russian defenders, having exhausted their ammunition, were forced to lay down their arms and surrender. A month earlier, the Port Arthur fortress had already fallen. Although the Japanese paid a heavy price, the situation in the Far East was completely reversed. Over the course of the past year, the Russian government lost a total of up to five hundred thousand troops in the Far East. What remained now was fewer than two hundred thousand men. Even if the Trans-Siberian Railway were immediately restored to full operation, an army that had lost so much manpower and so many strategic positions had no chance of turning the tide. … Japan had won the Russo-Japanese War, yet the faces of everyone in the Japanese government were still grim. During the fighting, all they had focused on was smashing the Russian forces in the Far East and fulfilling their tacit understanding with the Holy Roman government. Casualties had barely been considered. But now that the war was over and the losses were being tallied, the staggering numbers left everyone shaken. As the victor, Japan had actually suffered even heavier losses than the Russians. A total of 380,000 soldiers had been killed, and 760,000 wounded. (Author’s Note: wounded soldiers who later recovered and returned to service are counted repeatedly.) There was no helping it. They were the attacking side. In the later stages, the Russian army lacked weapons and ammunition, but they never lacked food. Dragging things out served no purpose. The only option was to force a breakthrough with frontal assaults. What made it even more tragic was that after the Battle of Malacca, Japan’s trade routes with Europe were completely cut off. All weapons and ammunition had to be produced domestically. Ordinary firearms could barely be supplied, but advanced equipment like aircraft and tanks quickly became expendable resources. Lacking sufficient heavy firepower, the Japanese army often had no choice but to fill the gaps with human lives. Worse still, bushido spirit was in full sway. The prevailing mindset in the military was to fight to the death. Once the battle started, no one bothered to think. They fought bravely, yes, but the price paid was terrifying. In the heat of battle, no one paid attention. Only when the final accounting was done did the reality hit home. Just from the casualty figures alone, it was obvious that the Japanese Empire had suffered a disastrous loss. Defeating Russia was true enough, but compared to the price paid, it was a net loss by any measure. The navy was ruined, the army crippled, the treasury so empty it could starve mice. Across the country, white mourning banners were everywhere. And in the end, the reward was a cold, brutal label: “a defeated nation.” Fulfilling the agreement did not mean the matter was settled. If Japan wanted to truly end the war, it would have to pay even more. Moreover, the so-called agreement with the Holy Roman Empire had only ever existed through hints and tacit understanding. There was no written document, no concrete promise, nothing at all. How things would ultimately turn out depended entirely on the Holy Roman government’s sense of decency. If Japan and Russia had not become mortal enemies with no room for reconciliation, the Japanese government would never have dared to go this far. Even the usually calm and seasoned Itō Hirobumi had lost his composure. He had weathered many storms, but never a wave so enormous that it threatened to capsize Japan itself. The core problem was the “heavy losses.” At this moment, the Japanese Empire was at its weakest, with no leverage to negotiate terms. Itō Hirobumi did not dare gamble that the enemy would refrain from sending an expeditionary force. Against the Japan of today, no expedition was even necessary. All it would take was a naval blockade of the coastline. As an island nation, Japan would immediately be pushed into a desperate situation. “Everyone, please be at ease,” Itō Hirobumi said, forcing calm into his voice. “There is an old saying from the Far Eastern lands next door: a setback may be a blessing in disguise. It perfectly describes our situation. The Oceanic Alliance has collapsed. As one of the defeated parties in this war, the Empire was bound to pay a painful price. Otherwise, the victors would feel dissatisfied. That price has already been paid. The Continental Alliance is not united either. It is no secret that the European powers are jointly suppressing Russia. We have simply done what they wanted done, but could not do openly themselves. They should be thanking us, not deliberately making things difficult for us.” Itō Hirobumi finished his explanation, doing his best to project composure.
[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]
Comments
Post a Comment