Plans can never keep up with changes. Franz had originally intended to set a trap for the Russians, but just as he began to take action, the plan collapsed. An economic crisis had arrived. It was true that the Holy Roman Empire suffered the greatest losses when the free trade system collapsed, but the first to fall was France. There was simply no helping it. First France was battered by the European War, and then it was devastated once more by the Russians. Even a country as large and wealthy as France had been tormented to the point of losing all resistance. After the Russian army withdrew, and with assistance from the Austrian government, the French economy began a slow recovery. Everything seemed to be moving in a positive direction, yet its enormous debts weighed it down and prevented the economy from regaining healthy momentum. Aside from creating jobs and meeting basic needs, nearly all the benefits of recovery were diverted as reparations into the pockets of the anti-French coalition. After the collapse of the free trade system, every European country suffered economic setbacks, and France was naturally no exception. Without a strong economic buffer, its fragile economy was crushed by the first wave of impact and plunged into crisis. Under the free trade system, the European economies had become deeply intertwined, and such connections could not be severed overnight. Once the French economy faltered, other European countries were inevitably dragged down as well. Before Franz could even react, the economic crisis had already swept across the continent. Economic crises always arrive with overproduction and unsold goods, and this case was no different. With everyone worrying about products piling up in warehouses, driving up the prices of strategic materials became nothing more than a dream. It is hard to say whether Russia and Japan were fortunate or unfortunate. Under the shadow of the economic crisis, the financial problems that both Japan and Russia once faced were no longer real obstacles. Benefits always come with drawbacks. In order to divert attention away from their domestic crises, both Britain and the Holy Roman Empire would support Japan and Russia in fighting to the bitter end. This also meant that the war between Japan and Russia would be more brutal than ever. It just so happened that both Japan and Russia had the capacity to suffer heavy losses. In theory, as long as they received enough money and supplies, the two countries could keep fighting indefinitely. When the war would end depended entirely on when their determination began to fade. Of course, it was likely that before either side reached its limit, the sponsors behind them would be the first to retreat. After all, the Japanese and Russian governments had no choice but to continue, while the British and the Austrian governments had to remain clear headed and weigh the costs and benefits. Franz tapped his fingers lightly on the arm of his grand chair as he sank into deep thought. Unlike Japan, which had no problem bowing and scraping before Britain, the Russian government next door was notorious for being an incorrigible rascal. Lending money to them almost guaranteed that it would never be repaid. Russia and Austria were allies, and supporting an ally was a duty that could not be avoided. So money would still need to be lent, but the Austrian government also had to maintain a clear line for limiting losses. They could not pour resources in without restraint. Finding the right balance was extremely difficult. Even after ruling for so many years, Franz could not make this decision lightly. Money itself was not the real issue. The key concern was that the state did not belong to the emperor alone, and even an emperor had to consider the reaction of the nation. As allies, people understood why the government needed to support the Russian government. But the degree of support that citizens were willing to tolerate varied, and everyone had their own expectations. Once the government crossed the majority’s threshold, internal backlash would follow. A capable monarch had to take such concerns into account. This was not something only the Holy Roman Empire had to face. The British government had even more issues to consider. The Russo-Austrian alliance had lasted for generations, and many within the Holy Roman Empire remained firmly pro Russian. Most ordinary people still had a fairly good impression of the Russians. Britain was different. What was the Anglo-Japanese Alliance supposed to be? At least ninety nine percent of the British public would never willingly admit that they were allied with Japan. The reason was simple. They felt that forming an alliance with what they saw as a Far Eastern native state was humiliating and unworthy of the prestige of the British world empire. Japan’s recent chaotic actions only made things worse. They had exposed what many British people viewed as a “barbaric” image, which was something the proud British public could not accept. But just as truth lies in the hands of a few, real power also lies in the hands of a few. Public opposition made no difference. The Anglo-Japanese Alliance would continue. After a long moment of silence, Franz spoke slowly, “Prepare for war.” Frederick’s expression changed immediately. At this moment, those words did not carry their ordinary meaning. They signaled that the decisive battle between Austria and Britain would come earlier than planned. According to the original plan, the showdown with Britain was supposed to take place ten years later, and the war between Japan and Russia was merely a rehearsal for the future world war. “Why move it ahead?” Frederick blurted out. Fortunately, they were alone. Otherwise, he would not have been the only one asking “why.” Compared to Britain, the Holy Roman Empire held a clear advantage in long term development potential. The longer the decisive moment was delayed, the more the situation would favor the Holy Roman Empire. If Britain had been operating under the same logic as Japan, they would have already taken the risk and struck first. In truth, the struggle for supremacy between Britain and the Holy Roman Empire had not erupted earlier precisely because British politicians had remained rational. They knew very well that time worked against them. But there was nothing they could do. The Holy Roman Empire had already become too powerful. At best, Britain could only keep them contained within the Mediterranean. The Redcoats had no courage to land on the continent. For the politicians, it made no sense to take such a risk. If they could not secure final victory yet still had to bear the risk of defeat, the gamble was not worth it. In politics there are no everlasting powers. As long as a government can preserve Britain’s glory during its own term, that is enough. Fame belongs to oneself, and the troubles are left for the next administration. Those with a conscience, or with a strong sense of patriotism, simply try to cause difficulties for the Holy Roman Empire in other ways. They would never personally commit to a direct confrontation. One British government after another acted in this same manner, and with the Austrian government deliberately cooperating, the current situation gradually took shape. If nothing unexpected happened, this state of affairs could have continued for decades, until Britain declined on its own. From this perspective, the original plan to challenge Britain’s hegemony ten years later was already considered bold. To advance the decisive showdown even further was something else entirely. Such an aggressive approach did not align with Franz’s usual steadiness. He rose, walked to the window, and leaned forward to look outside. Franz spoke slowly, “This is a rare opportunity. Based on the current situation, after the war between Japan and Russia, the Russian Empire will suffer disastrous losses. Adding the difficulties we have arranged for them, the Russian government will struggle even to preserve its rule. Once the threat from the east disappears, that will be the best moment for our decisive battle with Britain. Even if our navy cannot defeat theirs outright, we only need to drag the British into a prolonged conflict. If it lasts three to five years, Britain will collapse under the strain. In recent years, the British government has been drawing allies from across the world. The United States has already taken their side, several American states show signs of leaning toward them, and even within Europe, there are countries that appear tempted. These nations may not be strong enough to change the overall situation, but trouble is still trouble. If Britain loses its mind and keeps exporting technology, arming these countries, then even if we win global hegemony, it will be difficult to control the world afterward. The United States in particular already has some industrial foundation. With British support on top of that, they might become our future rival in the Americas. For the Empire, the future brings both advantages and uncertainties, and the longer we wait, the more variables can appear. Nothing in this world is perfect. Rather than wait for an unpredictable future, it is better to act now.” Alright, Franz admitted that he had lost his nerve. The truth cannot be hidden forever, and the fact that the Austrian government had dealt a heavy blow to the Russian government would eventually come to light. No matter which government ended up controlling Russian politics in the future, the Russo-Austrian alliance would not survive. If Russia broke apart, that would be one thing. But if a Soviet Union emerged ahead of time, it would be a real problem. Of course, with the Holy Roman Empire’s current strength there was no need to fear a newly formed Soviet Union. The real issue was Britain. With the British ability to manipulate others, persuading a war-torn and resentful Russia to join an anti-Holy Roman Empire coalition was almost guaranteed. Instead of sitting back and waiting for that to happen, it was better to strike first. Since a conflict was inevitable, they might as well prevent the British from linking everyone together. The Russo-Japanese War conveniently provided a cover for Austrian preparations. By the time Russia and Japan had exhausted each other, the Holy Roman Empire’s buildup would also be nearly complete, allowing them to catch Britain off guard. Once the Holy Roman Empire became the sole global hegemon, the blow dealt to the Russian government would no longer matter. Regardless of who ruled Russia afterward, they would pretend not to know anything. In politics, strength always determines everything. As long as one is powerful enough, no problem is truly a problem. … The Austrian government acted with its usual efficiency. Following Franz’s order, the preparations for war quickly accelerated. All the preparations were labeled as “aid to Russia”, making it appear as though Austria was fully supporting the Russian government. Following the principle that a performance should look convincing from start to finish, on March 12, 1904, the Holy Roman financial consortium signed the “War Loan Basket Agreement” with the Russian government. The treaty included a war loan of three hundred million guilders and the sale of an additional five hundred million in war bonds, expected to raise a total of eight hundred million for the Russian government over the next three years. Once the news spread, Europe immediately erupted in shock. This enormous loan not only shattered the world record for a single borrowing, but also publicly demonstrated Austria’s determination to support Russia. Just a week before the agreement was signed, the Holy Roman embassy in Tokyo had announced its withdrawal, and when these events were viewed together, it was clearly more than simple support for Russia. It was not that people were overly imaginative. The real issue was that the actions of the Austrian government were simply too unexpected. Everything they did was telling the world that the Russo-Japanese War was merely an extension of the struggle between the Holy Roman Empire and British hegemony. The shocks did not stop all at once. Before anyone could finish discussing the situation, on April 14, 1904, Russia and Austria signed the “Naval Development Memorandum.” According to the agreement, over the next two years the Holy Roman Empire would build eight super battleships, twenty-four destroyers, sixteen cruisers, and more for the Russian government. Even if only half of these were completed, the Russian navy would become the third strongest naval force in the world. People without military knowledge were amazed at the grand scale of the Russo-Austrian plan. Those who understood military affairs were puzzled by a single question: how could the Russian government afford to maintain so many ships? No one had an answer. Even within the Russian government, many officials were confused. Those in the know would never step forward to explain. The treaty had already been signed. The official explanation to the outside world was that this fleet was being organized to sail across the ocean and attack Japan. … In Tokyo, the Japanese government, one of the parties directly involved, was completely stunned. Emperor Meiji asked, “Can someone tell me what exactly happened in Europe? Why are the Austrians doing this?” They had seen allies support each other before, but never like this. Throwing money around would have been understandable since Austria was wealthy. But handing over the most advanced warships as a bundled package was going too far. As for Russia launching an expedition to Japan, that was believable. With the Trans-Siberian Railway still incomplete, the best way for the Tsar to secure victory was to strike from the sea. Unlike in the original timeline, Russia now had an ally supporting it, and there would be no shortage of supplies and maintenance along the way. The risks of sending a fleet across the ocean were much smaller. But to deal with the Japanese navy’s few outdated ships, there was absolutely no need for such a massive undertaking. Never mind eight super battleships. As long as two super battleships led the fleet, combined with Russia’s current naval strength, they would already have enough to complete the expedition. Itō Hirobumi said, “Your Majesty, with the Russian Empire’s financial capacity, it is absolutely impossible for them to maintain such a massive fleet. Even if they are buying warships for the sake of the war, given the close relationship between Russia and Austria, they could simply purchase ships already in service with the Holy Roman Empire. There is no need to waste time ordering entirely new vessels. There are only two countries in the world with the resources to purchase such a large number of ships at once. If the order is genuine, then these ships were most likely purchased by the Holy Roman Empire, and the intended target is probably Britain. Using the Russians as a cover is most likely just a way to conceal their true intentions. Given the strength of the Holy Roman Navy, adding these new ships would close the gap between them and the Royal Navy, perhaps even giving them an advantage. But some things still do not make sense. If the Holy Roman Empire wanted to catch the British off guard, they could have ordered the ships in secret. Their colonies are vast, and it would not be impossible to build shipyards in hidden ports. With all this fuss, British attention is focused on them. The moment they start constructing the shipyards, Britain will respond immediately and deny them any opportunity to gain the upper hand. From this perspective, the Russo-Austrian naval agreement is likely a bluff meant to pressure us and lure us into making mistakes. But this also contains major contradictions. Even if we did take the bait, our empire could never build so many warships…” Itō’s own reasoning undermined itself, leaving him frustrated. But he had a responsibility to the Empire of Japan, so he had no choice but to speak honestly. Explaining it only made Emperor Meiji even more confused. The only certain point was that among Itō Hirobumi’s theories, at least one must be correct. As for which one reflected the truth, that was impossible to determine. The issue concerned the future of the nation, so no one dared to make decisions based on guesswork. Foreign Minister Inoue Kaoru said, “We have already been in contact with the British, but they also cannot determine the true intentions of Russia and Austria. Their investigation is still ongoing. However, the loan contract has been verified. The Russian government really has borrowed a massive sum from the Holy Roman Empire, and the first installment of thirty million guilders has already been transferred into their accounts. The war bonds issued by Russia have also appeared in financial markets across Europe. Perhaps because the interest rate was raised, the sales performance of the bonds has been quite good.” This was a depressing topic. The fact that Russian war bonds were selling well meant that Japanese war bonds were selling poorly. After all, buying war bonds was like placing a bet. Only the winner would honor them. Anyone who invested in the losing side’s bonds might as well have thrown their money into a river. No matter how one looked at it, Russia’s influence in Europe far surpassed Japan’s. Setting aside personal feelings, speculators still believed that Russia had a higher chance of winning. In the original timeline, Japanese war bonds had also been difficult to sell. In the end, it was Jewish capital that bought them up in large quantities as part of their effort to counter Russia. There was also another theory. Some believed that the British and American governments had hinted to Jewish financiers to buy the bonds. The truth no longer mattered. What mattered was that, in the early stages of the war, Japanese war bonds truly did not receive a warm welcome in the capital markets. As for Russia’s poor financial reputation, that was not a real obstacle. The financiers were not the ones buying the bonds. They were simply earning fees. The ones left holding the risk were ordinary investors. Seasoned investors might already be wary of Russia, but new investors knew nothing. With no internet and newspapers shaping public opinion, whatever narrative was pushed was what people believed. Hearing that the British had begun an investigation, Emperor Meiji finally felt some relief. The scale of the Holy Roman Empire’s support for Russia was truly shocking. The Holy Roman Empire was offering a level of assistance that the British Empire could never match. Japan had multiple backers behind the scenes, but in this timeline the United States was little more than a symbolic partner. A divided America was not simply a matter of three minus one equals two. After losing the fertile South, the Union federal government had far less authority over the states. Even the choice of capital showed this weakness. A strong central government would never place itself right in the enemy’s line of fire. This situation had emerged because the states could not reach an agreement on relocating the capital, so they maintained the status quo. Although they were part of the same country, the interests of the states differed. When laws were created, each state focused on its own needs, rarely considering the bigger picture. Each had its own administration. Without unity, economic development inevitably suffered. In the original timeline, these issues persisted well into the twenty-first century and were never fully resolved. In this alternate timeline, the problems were even more severe. The present day United States had no way to print dollars to compensate states harmed during policymaking. The federal government could barely intervene at all. In the end, the only country truly capable of spending large sums was Britain. The United States was essentially brought along to make up the numbers. At most it could help sell some war bonds. Expecting any greater support would be a fantasy.
[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]
Comments
Post a Comment