With a gunshot ringing out, the already chaotic scene became completely uncontrollable. “The Russians are killing people!” No one knew who shouted it, but the words instantly ignited the entire crowd. The protesters, already furious, were now fully set ablaze. Radicalism was called “radical” for a reason. The defining trait was acting purely on impulse, never weighing consequences. It did not matter where they were. All they could think of was, ‘Kill all the Russians, blood must be paid with blood!” They did not stop at shouting. They took action. The protesters toppled the embassy gate and the walls, then charged inside. Facing the surge of people, the Russian guards put up a brave fight, but one pair of fists could not beat many hands. Having rifles made no difference. This was, after all, the embassy district. Security was supposed to be handled by the Japanese government. The embassy guards carried only light weapons intended to deal with petty intruders, not to repel an assault. Once the crowd forced its way in, the outcome needed no explanation. The nearby embassies, originally watching the spectacle, had already begun lifting their cameras, frantically taking pictures of the chaos. The only regret was that the distance was too great, so the photographs lacked any clarity. All that could be seen was a mass of people storming the Russian embassy. The Japanese police officers maintaining order nearby were terrified. Creating trouble outside an embassy was one thing. Breaking in was something entirely different. From the sheer level of chaos, it was obvious the intruders were not rational. If they did something truly reckless, the consequences would be unimaginable. “Chief, what do we do now?” The middle-aged police chief glared at his subordinate, who looked frightened enough to wet himself. “What do you mean, what do we do?” he said coldly. “Remember this, Muraki. A moment ago there were rioters trying to storm the British embassy, and we were busy stopping them. As for what happened at the Russian embassy, we saw nothing.” After saying that, the middle-aged officer raised his fists and began punching and kicking his subordinate, as if recreating the scene of rioters breaking through. They were not the only ones making decisions like this. To avoid taking the blame, nearly every policeman on duty nearby had been roughed up. There was no choice. The situation had already gone out of control, far beyond what low-level officers like them could stop. If they got involved now, there was no guarantee they could regain control, but they would definitely be dragged down with it. Those with real social experience knew they had to protect themselves first. Everything else was for their superiors to deal with. After all, it was the higher-ups who had allowed the protestors to get so close to the Russian embassy. With something this big happening, someone would have to step forward and take responsibility, and that kind of responsibility was not something ordinary people could bear. As low-ranking officers, they had to know when to step aside. As long as they were not directly involved, the higher-ups would not bother with them. … Inside the government office building, Prime Minister Ōkuma Shigenobu had just finished his afternoon tea. He was staring blankly at a pile of documents when he suddenly received shocking news: rioters had attacked the Russian embassy district. “Has the situation been brought under control?” “Are there any casualties inside the Russian embassy?” … Protests were one thing, but storming the embassy district was going too far. Ordinary citizens might not understand how serious this was, but Ōkuma Shigenobu certainly did. Since Japan wanted to “leave Asia and join Europe,” it needed to understand the political rules Europeans followed, including the commonly accepted principles of “international law.” Storming the Russian embassy district might seem, on the surface, like a conflict between Japan and Russia alone, but that was not the case. If the situation was mishandled, the Japanese government would face criticism from the entire international community. International sanctions aside, even diplomatic condemnation alone would be enough to cause serious trouble for the government. Against this backdrop, whether anyone in the Russian embassy had been injured became extremely important. If it was only property damage, Japan could settle the matter with financial compensation. But if there were injuries, the Russians would never let such a perfect opportunity slip by. It must be remembered that the Russian Empire was not isolated. In addition to the Russo-Austrian alliance, it was also one of the principal members of the European Alliance. The justification was practically handed to them. The Russian government had every reason to involve its allies. International politics did not admire individual heroism. Overwhelming an opponent with superior numbers was the real norm. A staff member answered in a panic, “The situation is completely out of control. The security department has already requested military assistance, and we still have no information on whether anyone in the Russian embassy has been injured.” Hearing this, Ōkuma Shigenobu collapsed into his chair. The situation had deteriorated to the point that the military was being called in. Who would believe there were no casualties at this stage? The question was no longer how many had died, but how many people inside the Russian embassy were still alive. A diplomatic disaster was inevitable. … The invention of the telegraph brought people closer together. Japan had run into trouble during the day, and by evening Austria had already received the news. As for trying to block the information, that was nothing more than wishful thinking. Telegraph companies were controlled by the great powers, so they had no reason to listen to the Japanese government. Besides, cutting off telegraph lines would not help. The incident happened in the embassy district, and the various embassies were close to one another. With so many eyewitnesses, secrecy was impossible. It was not as if Japan could silence everyone involved. If staff members from multiple embassies were harmed, the treatment Japan would receive would not be any better than what its neighbor faced during 1911. TN: Probably referring to the 1911 Revolution (Xinhai Revolution) Aside from the unclear situation regarding casualties inside the Russian embassy, all other information was sent across the world through a steady stream of telegrams. Holding the telegram in his hand, Franz fell into deep thought. He had heard of the Russo-Japanese War, but he had never heard of an incident where Japanese civilians stormed foreign embassies. Had history changed, or had someone deliberately concealed the truth, or was the event simply too insignificant to leave a mark? Franz was long past the age of strong curiosity and had no interest in digging deeply into the Russo-Japanese conflict. “Has Japan’s pro-war faction been suppressed badly recently?” From a few hundred meters away, one could barely see what was happening. Any hidden gunfire would naturally go unnoticed. Without knowing that someone was stirring up trouble, the assault on the Russian embassy district was immediately labeled as a mob attack. In a purely Russo-Japanese dispute, the only group capable of doing something this foolish was the war-crazy faction of the Japanese military. Drawing from Franz’s personal experience, extreme incidents like this usually happened when the pro-war faction in the Japanese military was being suppressed and resorted to drastic action to turn the situation around. Similar events had taken place in the original timeline. For example, in a certain year when the government tried to reduce military spending, the dissatisfied Japanese military launched a coup. Frederick said, “That is correct. In recent years the Japanese government has been continuously cutting the military budget. At its peak, military spending accounted for 84.7% of their annual revenue, but it has now been reduced to 46.2%. It is said that the government still intends to keep compressing military expenditures until they drop to around 35% of total revenue. But what does that have to do with a mob storming the Russian embassy district? They surely would not launch an attack just because they were unhappy about reduced military spending proportions, would they?” The proportion of military spending within total financial revenue has always been high, which is a characteristic of the era. The more economically backward a country is, the higher its military expenditure tends to be as a share of government spending. Countries that can keep military spending below 40% are usually those that have already begun industrializing, and countries that can keep it below 25% can generally be considered developed. From the military budget ratio, it is clear that Japan’s economy has improved in recent years. Otherwise, the proportion of military spending would never have fallen. Maintaining an army is extremely expensive. As military technology advances, the routine maintenance cost of the armed forces has steadily increased. With no changes to the size of the military, annual military expenses can only rise, never fall. If one wants to reduce its share of total government spending, annual revenue must grow faster than military maintenance costs. During the gold standard era, seigniorage revenue was nothing like what it became in later times and could never serve as the backbone of government finance. Government revenue grew mainly through increased tax income brought about by economic development. “In other countries something like this would be impossible, but in Japan nothing is certain. We cannot judge Japan by ordinary logic. With the influence of Bushido and the rise of militarist thinking, the Japanese military has been on a radical and irreversible path from the beginning. Of course, this may be only one of many factors behind the assault on the Russian embassy. The direct spark was most likely the recent conflict in the Far East. When facing the Russian Empire, the Japanese government lacks confidence. The government may be willing to make concessions for the sake of domestic stability and long-term development, but that does not mean that radical groups in society will also consider the bigger picture. There are too many people in the world who refuse to think before acting, and if nationalism or extremism is added to the mix, the result becomes even more irrational. With a little provocation, there is nothing they would not dare to do. It is not only possible for them to storm the Russian embassy, but even slaughtering all of its staff is not beyond imagination.” With the original timeline as a reference, what Franz considered normal was a complete shock to Frederick’s worldview. Storming an embassy district was already horrifying enough. If the protesters went so far as to slaughter the embassy staff, then there would be nothing left to discuss. It would be war, plain and simple. No great power would tolerate such provocation, and certainly not the hot-tempered Russians. Still, Frederick had seen enough storms in his life. After his initial disbelief, he quickly regained his composure and said slowly, “If they really kill all the staff of the Russian embassy, then a war between Japan and Russia becomes unavoidable. But since the Trans-Siberian Railway is not yet completed, the Russians probably will not act immediately. Judging from the construction progress, the main line should be completed next year, while the branch lines will take another three to five years. If nothing unexpected happens, the Russo-Japanese War should break out within the next five to ten years. So perhaps we can…” Before Frederick could finish, Franz cut him off saying, “That is only the ideal window for Russia to start the war. But the outbreak of a war is never decided by one side alone. If you were Emperor Meiji, would you wait until the Russians were fully prepared and then fight them passively?” This misunderstanding came from flawed assumptions. The power gap between Japan and Russia was enormous. Without the limitations of transportation, even combining the strength of three or five Japans would not be enough to resist the Russians. If racial prejudice against non-white peoples were also taken into account, the perceived gap in strength would be even larger. The Philippine War provided a clear comparison. Spain, exhausted and fighting far from home, could still fight Japan to a standstill. Had distance not limited their ability to project power, Japan would have already been defeated. As for Spain’s use of French mercenaries, everyone simply ignored it. Europe had a long tradition of employing mercenaries, and the ability to hire them was itself a sign of strength. In the eyes of many, when the power gap is too great, a weaker country that actively starts a war is essentially courting death. In contrast, a country that fights passively can still win international sympathy and invite major powers to mediate. Both may lose in the end, but they would receive completely different treatment. The former might lose everything, perhaps even face national destruction. The latter, although defeated, would still have a chance to survive. After all, the international community would not watch the Russians expand endlessly. Intervention would be inevitable. … While Franz and his son were considering how to profit from a future Russo-Japanese War, the Russian government also received the disastrous news from the Far East. However, the information did not come from their own embassy. It was forwarded by the Austrian government. Allies could always help with such small matters. If they had not confirmed multiple times that their embassy in Tokyo had lost all contact, Nicholas II would have thought it was April Fool’s Day. That tiny Japan dared to provoke the mighty Russian Empire again and again. It was as if they believed Russia’s sword had grown dull. After receiving the news, Nicholas II immediately summoned the high-ranking officials for an emergency meeting. Something like this could not go unanswered. If Russia did not retaliate, how would it maintain its prestige on the international stage? Prime Minister Sergei Witte said, “Your Majesty, the Japanese must be punished for their provocation. They must understand that the Russian Empire is not to be trifled with. But the Trans-Siberian Railway is not yet completed, and our forces in the Far East are limited. It would be difficult to deliver a decisive blow. Instead of a weak and meaningless retaliation, it would be better to wait. Once we are fully prepared, we can destroy Japan completely and finally settle this insult.” Count Sergei Witte was a rational prime minister. Anger was one thing, but launching a war in a fit of rage was absolutely unacceptable. Past failures were lessons to be remembered. In recent years, the Russian Empire had suffered greatly from rushing into wars because of anger. It was time to learn from those mistakes. Deep down, Witte had already made up his mind. No matter how much Japan provoked them, Russia must endure until the Trans-Siberian Railway was fully completed. He was not the only rational one. Most of the current high-ranking members of the Russian government were holdovers from Alexander III’s administration, and they were almost entirely composed of cautious pragmatists. Konstantin Pobedonostsev, Director of the Holy Synod (or Orthodox Church Administration) said, “The prime minister is right. This is not the time to take military action. When facing a clown like Japan, we either do nothing or we strike in a way that wipes them out completely. Only then can we truly intimidate them. Since Japan is an island nation, destroying them would require overwhelming naval power. With the current strength of the Imperial Navy, that is clearly beyond our reach. In this matter, we can learn from the Austrians and create a comprehensive twenty year development plan. Once we are fully prepared, we can wipe out these Japanese monkeys.” It was clear that Pobedonostsev had mastered the essence of patience and slow, steady strategy. He opened by proposing a twenty year plan to destroy Japan. Given the Russian Empire’s deep resources, if it truly devoted itself to developing quietly for twenty years, Japan would be finished beyond any doubt. Not only Japan. Even the British Empire might struggle to suppress a fully industrialized Russian Empire.
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