By evening, the once chaotic embassy street had fallen silent. The protesting crowds, realizing how serious the situation had become, had long since scattered like frightened birds. The military police who rushed over to investigate had already sealed off the area. The entire embassy district was now guarded with soldiers at close intervals. The lingering smell of gunpowder in the air and the shattered remains of Russian buildings were still silently testifying to everything that had happened during the day. All entertainment venues had closed their doors, and even those who normally loved to watch from the sidelines stayed indoors, afraid of getting themselves into trouble. In contrast, the previously shuttered foreign embassies had become lively again. When facing rioters, everyone had been cautious and nervous, but when dealing with the Japanese government, their courage returned. The reputation of the military police might intimidate the Japanese public, but it could not deter diplomats from other countries. Influenced by traditional culture, the Europeans held a strong sense of shared fate. They were all diplomats. If they did not speak up now, what happened to the Russians today could very well happen to them tomorrow. All embassies unanimously condemned the atrocious behavior that had taken place earlier, and even Britain, Japan’s ally, joined in. The military police responsible for sealing off the area suffered the most. They could intimidate Japanese civilians, but they had no effect on a group of foreign diplomats who could not be scolded, criticized, or touched. Some hot-tempered diplomats even started punching and kicking the military police who tried to block their way. Many officers already had bruised faces. One had to admire the endurance of the Japanese. Even after being beaten, they continued to greet the diplomats with smiles. They had the advantage of numbers, after all. The diplomats were few. Once one group of officers finished being beaten, another group would step up to take their place. By sticking to a method of never talking back and never fighting back, they eventually wore down the diplomats’ tempers and successfully bought enough time to finish clearing the scene. … Inside the imperial palace, Emperor Meiji was so angry that he stamped his feet repeatedly. His usual calmness and royal dignity had completely vanished. There was nothing he could do. What had happened today was simply too shocking, plunging Japan into the greatest diplomatic crisis in its history. It would already have been troublesome enough if protesters had merely stormed the Russian embassy. But they had gone as far as killing all the Russian embassy staff. Faced with these troublemakers, Emperor Meiji felt utterly despairing. No matter how many objective reasons there were, the Japanese government could not avoid responsibility for such an incident. What made it even worse was that the massacre happened right under the eyes of foreign diplomatic personnel. If the situation was not handled perfectly, Japan could face a catastrophe that might destroy the entire nation. Unable to hold back his fury, Emperor Meiji practically roared, “Which imbecile planned today’s incident, and have they dragged the person out yet?” He had every reason to be furious. He had never seen such disastrous stupidity. Protests and demonstrations were one thing, and he had even hoped to pressure the Russians that way. But slaughtering the entire Russian embassy staff was completely beyond imagination. Anyone with even a minimal sense of political awareness should have understood what this meant. The massacre did not only provoke Russia. It openly challenged the international order dominated by Europe. If the exact casualty details had already been made public, the responses Japan received today would not have been a unified diplomatic protest. All foreign embassies would already be packing their belongings and preparing to leave. After thinking things through for only a moment, Emperor Meiji understood how enormous the trouble awaiting the Japanese government would be. Making an enemy of Russia was no longer the main issue. The true danger lay in the international sanctions that would certainly follow. Until all these problems were resolved, Japan would have no allies. Even the British government would not risk the anger of the entire world by supporting Japan under such circumstances. “The organizations behind this demonstration included several student groups such as the Anti-Russia Advancement Society and the Iron-Blooded Revenge Society. Their main purpose was to protest against Russia for infringing upon imperial interests. Attacking the Russian embassy was never part of the organizers’ plans. The situation spiraled out of control mainly because a bullet, whose origin is still unknown, struck one of the protesting students. Someone then shouted that the Russians had killed him, which triggered public outrage and led to the later tragedy. Based on what we know from the scene, more than a hundred people were killed in the daytime clashes and nearly a thousand were injured.” Before General Kodama Gentarō could finish speaking, Emperor Meiji impatiently cut him off and rebuked: “I am only asking you who planned this, I am not interested in hearing you defend them! No matter the reasons, since such a major incident has occurred, someone must step forward to take responsibility and provide an explanation to the international community. Or do you genuinely think the world’s governments will forget about the attack on the Russian embassy just because ordinary civilians died? Don’t forget, dozens of staff members, including the Russian Ambassador himself, are all dead! In the eyes of the entire world, those who participated in the parade and demonstration are no longer ordinary citizens, but a group of senseless rioters.” If explanations were useful, there would be no wars in this world. No matter how the conflict started, the fact remains that the Russian embassy staff were killed by Japanese demonstrators. That alone is enough. The principle that killers must face justice is unavoidable, otherwise no foreign diplomat in Japan would be able to sleep at night. “Sigh.” Kodama Gentarō could only sigh helplessly. It was not that he wanted to defend the students, but too many people were involved. If they really pursued the investigation all the way to the end, no one knew how many would be dragged down with it. Most of the participants in the demonstration were patriotic students, and what happened during the day was entirely the result of someone manipulating events from behind the scenes. If no one had guided the crowd, this tragedy would never have occurred under normal circumstances. But now that it had happened, someone had to take responsibility. The groups that organized the march would naturally be the first to be blamed. After a short pause, Kodama Gentarō added, “We have already sent people to investigate the mastermind. The scene was too chaotic at the time, so we cannot determine where the bullet came from. The military police have sealed off the area, and our specialists are already present and conducting their work. According to the plan, we will disguise the site as if an accidental fire caused the deaths of the Russian embassy staff, and the demonstrators rushed in because they were trying to...” Before Kodama Gentarō could finish, Itō Hirobumi finally lost his patience. He had completely given up hope on the military’s way of thinking. “Kodama-kun, are you sure you are not joking?” It was not a joke, but the entire idea itself was laughable. Unless the Russian embassy staff had all been corpses to begin with, they would have escaped the moment a fire broke out. Even if not everyone could escape, at least the guards at the gate should have survived. Such an explanation could not fool anyone, not even for show. Claiming that the demonstrators stormed the embassy in order to “fight the fire” was even more ridiculous. There were plenty of eyewitnesses, and the Japanese government did not have the power to force the staff of the nearby embassies to lie with their eyes open. Treating the entire world like fools might still work if Japan were as powerful as the future United States. Unfortunately, Japan at this time was nothing more than a small one among nations, barely touching the threshold of the great powers and still failing to step through the door. With insufficient strength, trying to trick the world like this was nothing but the behavior of someone who had never been beaten by reality and wanted to test their luck. The truth was that Japanese and Western thinking were completely different. The civilian officials who first encountered the West could barely keep up, but the military leadership remained stuck in their traditional mindset. To the military, the incident at the Russian embassy was simply an issue between Japan and Russia, unrelated to other countries. If they wanted to play tricks, so be it. Japan’s relations with Russia were already terrible and could not get much worse. Reality, however, was far harsher. European governments loved to involve themselves in international affairs that carried no risk and offered easy prestige. Since Japan was clearly at fault, criticizing the Japanese government was a convenient opportunity no one would pass up. If a major power took the lead in pushing for sanctions, the others would happily follow and show off their so-called international influence. The confused Kodama Gentarō finally realized his mistake after enduring everyone’s criticism. He immediately backed down, showing none of the Japanese army’s famed spirit of dying before giving in. … Foreign Minister Inoue Kaoru said, “As of this moment, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has received diplomatic notes from eleven countries, including Britain and the Holy Roman Empire, demanding that we explain what happened at the Russian embassy during the day and open the site for their representatives to inspect. We have already contacted the British ambassador, but the results were extremely poor. The British are also demanding a reasonable explanation from us. The only fortunate thing is that the results have not yet been made public. If the British learn that all the staff at the Russian embassy were killed, they might not support us at all. Judging from the current situation, if we cannot give the international community a credible explanation, the Empire is very likely to face sanctions. The situation is extremely unfavorable for us. If the Russians take the opportunity to pressure us, the international community may very well side with them.” There were only problems and no solutions. This was the true condition of the Japanese government at that moment. It was not that the Foreign Ministry was not trying, but the incident was too massive and Japan was too clearly at fault. There was no room to maneuver. International politics also has its own rules. When a country with insufficient strength breaks those rules, it must accept the consequences. Prime Minister Ōkuma Shigenobu said, “The incident has already happened. We cannot avoid it. The Empire will definitely have to pay a price. What we can do now is find ways to minimize the impact of the incident and reduce the losses to the lowest possible level. The best outcome would be to identify the mastermind behind all this. If we can point to another country, our responsibility will become much lighter. Based on the situation at the scene, do the military police have any leads? Even if we cannot identify the real culprit, a suspect would also help.” Even though he knew the chances of finding the real mastermind were extremely low, Ōkuma Shigenobu could only try anything that might work. If they could not find someone to take the blame and share the pressure, the Japanese government would be crushed under it. Kodama Gentarō shook his head and said, “It is difficult. There are too many suspects. We have no evidence at all, so there is no way to accuse anyone. Even if we capture the killer, it will be hard to determine who the real mastermind is. The one behind the plan could easily disguise it as a personal grudge and murder. If we cannot prove it was a political assassination, then all responsibility will still fall on us.” From a perspective of pure self-interest, any party that wanted to provoke a war between Japan and Russia could have been the one behind the incident. Once things reached this level, the investigation could not continue downward. The most suspicious were the Japanese military, Britain, and the Holy Roman Empire. Following closely behind were Spain, the United States, and the Qing Dynasty. No matter who the real culprit was, it absolutely could not be any of the first three. Even if the suspicion was overwhelming and the evidence was convincing, it still had to be ruled out. The second group could in theory be blamed, but only if evidence existed. Simply pointing fingers without proof would convince no one. If they made accusations blindly, the blame might not land on the intended target and Japan could end up creating another enemy. That would be disastrous. Minister of War Yamagata Aritomo said, “Prime Minister, do you think the Russians would believe us even if we produced a mastermind? Given the situation now, there is no possibility of easing tensions between us and Russia. Even if the Russian government manages to endure without reacting, once the Trans-Siberian Railway is completed, the Russians will advance eastward anyway. A war will be unavoidable. Rather than waiting for the Russians to arrive and fighting passively, it would be better to start preparing now and strike before the Trans-Siberian Railway is completed. As for the international impact, things have reached this point already, so at most we will need to apologize, compensate the families of the dead, and assure all countries that such an incident will never happen again. If negotiations work, we negotiate. If they do not, then at worst we accept sanctions. As long as the Empire adopts a humble attitude, the European powers will not send troops over this matter. You can rest assured that such sanctions will not last long. Once our war with Russia begins, the British will find ways to help lift the blockade, and the Holy Roman Empire is unlikely to stop them. Even if we are blockaded, we can rely on smuggling. Unless the powers send fleets to our doorstep to conduct anti-smuggling operations, any blockade will exist in name only. The capitalists will always find ways around it. The only real difficulty will be securing grain and other essential bulk goods, but as long as the country stands united, we will survive this short period of hardship soon enough.” Politics is complex and ever changing, and different perspectives lead to different conclusions. What civilian officials see as a disastrous diplomatic crisis appears to the pro-war faction as an opportunity. At this moment, the Japanese government is like someone forced into a corner with no way out. Once the final layer of illusion was torn apart, every hope held by the peace faction disappeared completely. Everyone realized that the war between Japan and Russia could no longer be avoided, and the only question left was when it would break out. The atmosphere in the room grew even heavier. Since the matter concerned the fate of the nation, no one dared make a decision lightly. After a long silence, Itō Hirobumi finally broke his silence and said, “A war between Japan and Russia is indeed unavoidable, but now is not the time. The Russians need to wait for their railway to be completed, and the Empire also needs time to prepare. In our current condition, we simply do not have the capacity to fight a major war. Furthermore, there is an ambitious schemer behind all of this who intentionally provoked the incident, someone who is impossible to guard against. If we do not drag this person out into the open, who knows what kind of trouble they will cause next. The Empire cannot withstand more of their mischief.” As he spoke, Itō Hirobumi cast a meaningful glance at the military representatives, as if warning them not to play with fire. He was not the only one who felt suspicious of them. Even Emperor Meiji’s gaze toward the military generals had changed, as though searching for something. No one enjoys being suspected, yet the generals had no way to defend themselves. Not only the civilians doubted them, they were doubting one another as well. The entire situation felt far too similar to the army’s usual style. The radical groups that organized the demonstration were closely connected to the military, and even if the gunshot that triggered the chaos was not orchestrated by them, the violent assault on the Russian embassy and the annihilation of the Russian diplomats were still tied to them in one way or another. Everyone in the room was intelligent enough to understand that without someone leading the crowd, even a gunshot would not have caused the situation to spiral out of control so quickly. Setting everything else aside, the direction the bullet came from should at least be identified first. People did not think at all, they shouted slogans and charged straight into the Russian embassy. At that very moment, the police also happened to be reassigned elsewhere. This was far too coincidental. When too many coincidences appear together, they stop being coincidences. Since the shooter had not been caught, everyone’s imagination only grew wider. Other international forces might have had the ability to orchestrate the gunshot, but controlling the demonstrators was simply unrealistic. The fanatics of nationalist radical groups were extreme patriots. Winning them over was never easy. They were able to prepare in advance, pick the exact time and place to lie in wait, and no one would believe that they did all this without prior planning. They received information beforehand, fired the shot, and escaped without leaving a trace. This was not something an ordinary person could accomplish. Whether foreign powers could do this was uncertain, but everyone was sure that the Japanese military could. In their hearts, the officials’ wariness toward the military rose several levels. Emperor Meiji said, “Itō-kun is correct. The mastermind must be found, otherwise the Empire will never see peace. The military police are to arrest the organizers of this demonstration at once and investigate the instigators behind them. Schools are to strengthen control and disband these illegal groups. In addition, increase security forces around the embassy district and prohibit any demonstrations from approaching the area.” He did not say it outright, but from Emperor Meiji’s expression, everyone could see that his suspicion was aimed at the military. Explaining was impossible anyway. The Japanese military itself was divided into numerous factions, filled with all sorts of strange groups. Even the military itself might not even fully understand them all. A few lunatics appearing occasionally was completely normal. When Tsar Nicholas visited Japan in the past, he had even been attacked by a guard assigned by the Japanese government. The military leadership was also troubled by the rise of extremism within the ranks. They had been trying to solve it for years, but with little success. Guaranteeing the behavior of such people would have been nothing but reckless. No one knew what kind of absurd acts they might commit. In fact, at the beginning, some members of the military suggested sending several warriors to the embassy district to commit seppuku as an apology to satisfy the international community. Some officers in the army even volunteered themselves, prepared to die for the Empire. Fortunately, Yamagata Aritomo understood Western culture and stopped them in time. Otherwise, such an act would not have been seen as self-sacrifice but as pouring oil on the fire.
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