“According to the reports from our embassy in Saint Petersburg, ever since the Far Eastern conflict broke out, anti-Japanese sentiment among the Russian public has been rising nonstop. Many within the Russian government are calling for harsh measures against us, and the pro-war faction has grown louder. There is even a possibility that they may initiate a war. The international community has been remarkably cold toward the conflict between us and the Russians. Aside from the British offering lip service and verbal support, most nations are merely watching the spectacle unfold,” Inoue Kaoru spoke with helplessness. Ever since the surge of radical nationalism, being a government official in Japan has become increasingly difficult. Being the foreign minister responsible for dealing with international affairs was practically like holding a flaming coal. Radicals among the public never used their brains when looking at problems. They always acted on impulse, their ambition far outweighing their actual strength. In this environment, the foreign minister was often the scapegoat and was seen by many as equivalent to a “traitor.” It did not matter who held the position. After the Treaty of Shimonoseki was signed, even Itō Hirobumi, who had achieved great success, was almost labeled a criminal deserving the wrath of heaven. A job this challenging required a heart strong enough to withstand anything. Without it, one simply could not endure. Yet no matter how strong his inner resolve was, Inoue Kaoru still felt his scalp tingling in the face of the current international landscape. In a world dominated by two rival great powers, no matter how many skills he possessed, there was no room to use them. Since Japan had chosen to follow Britain, they could not expect any favors from the Holy Roman Empire. It was human instinct to rely on the strong, and for a sea power like Japan, siding with the greatest naval power in the world made perfect sense. The problem was the big brother they relied upon. For reasons unknown, in recent years Britain had begun to lose its edge, gradually falling behind in the global competition. First they lost the initiative in the Second Industrial Revolution. Then they lost control over the European continent. Now even the Royal Navy’s supremacy is starting to waver. The blow to Britain’s naval dominance was entirely caused by the Holy Roman Navy’s world tour. Any country that had participated in joint exercises instantly understood the gap between a super battleship and a traditional battleship. The problem was that Britain had fallen behind in this field. Their dreadnoughts had entered service, but because they were rushed into construction, they were riddled with flaws. It was just like the Holy Roman Empire’s earliest ship, the Roma. It looked imposing while sitting in port, but once you sailed it out, the shortcomings became obvious. In this situation, even though Britain technically possessed super battleships, all they could do was watch as the Holy Roman Navy stirred up waves across the world and established its prestige. In the eyes of those who understood the game, this was a sign that the Royal Navy had fallen behind, at least in terms of warship construction technology. Britain had once again been overtaken. The saying that prosperity is followed by decline was not popular in Europe, but in East Asia it was common wisdom. Even the earlier seizure of the Philippines was built upon this belief. What worried Inoue Kaoru even more was that Britain was not only falling behind in technology, economics, and military strength. Even its strongest field, diplomacy, had hit a bottleneck. If the big brother could not handle diplomacy, the little brother stood no chance. In this Eurocentric era, who would bother to care about a small island country in the Far East? To break this diplomatic deadlock, Japan launched a full-scale Westernization movement, the so-called Movement to Leave Asia and Enter Europe, and Inoue Kaoru, as foreign minister, was one of its main architects. Itō Hirobumi said, “The situation is not as serious as it seems. This is only a diplomatic dispute. Russia is not ready to start a war over something like this. The international landscape is deeply divided right now. Britain and the Holy Roman Empire stand opposed, and although Russia appears to be the third major power, their situation is far more awkward than it looks. In theory, since the Russo-Austrian alliance has lasted for decades, the Russians should be supporting the Holy Roman Empire. But the two happen to share the same continent and even share a border. Two tigers cannot share one mountain, and the European continent cannot accommodate two great powers. If the Holy Roman Empire defeats Britain, the Russian Empire will have no chance of advancing its own interests. From a strategy of befriending distant powers and attacking nearby ones, an alliance between Britain and Russia to deal with the Holy Roman Empire would be the best choice. After all, Russia and Austria rely on land power, while the British rely on sea power. Even if Britain wins global supremacy, it poses no threat to the survival of the Russian Empire. The opposite, however, is not true. But Britain and Russia have built up deep resentment over time, and it cannot simply be resolved. The two sides lack even the most basic trust, so they have no foundation for forming an alliance. At this stage, no matter which side Russia supports, it goes against its own interests, yet it still has to pick a side. Otherwise, Britain and Austria will never feel at ease. This is a major problem, and until it is resolved, the Russian government will avoid creating more trouble. Besides, Russia’s strength in the Far East is not enough to start a war. Once a war breaks out, their logistics alone would be enough to grind them down.” After listening to Itō Hirobumi’s explanation, the Emperor Meiji’s expression clearly relaxed. Because of the butterfly effect, Japan this time was not as fortunate as it had been in the original timeline. Although Japan gained a great deal from the war against the Qing Dynasty, the added financial burden of the costly Philippine War and the much larger navy compared with the same period in history made matters worse. All of these required money. The war indemnities Japan seized were used to fill these two enormous holes, so the funds available for domestic development naturally decreased, and the nation’s overall strength was weaker than it had been historically. The most direct impact was on the government’s finances. Achieving a balanced budget was unthinkable, and avoiding financial collapse itself felt like a blessing from the eight million gods. Confronting the Russians would not only bring military pressure but even greater financial pressure. From this perspective, Japan and Russia were similar, both being poor countries with emptier wallets than their faces. Prime Minister Ōkuma Shigenobu said, “Itō, what you said holds true under normal circumstances, but do not forget that the Russian Empire often behaves abnormally. I have studied Russian history, and many decisions made by the Russian government were made without any real thought. The most famous example is Peter III. Because of his personal preferences, he abandoned his alliance and aided Prussia, directly cutting off the Russian Empire’s path to westward expansion. There are many lesser known examples as well. Several modern Russian wars can hardly be described as rational. Even Nicholas the Great, whom the Russians hold in high regard, launched the Near East War blindly. Although he ultimately seized the Constantinople region and appeared to have won, the price Russia paid shows that it was a mutually destructive conflict. What Russia gained was only prestige. His successor Alexander II was not much different. Without carefully weighing the pros and cons, he rashly went to war with Prussia. He did indeed win, but the cost was that the Russian Empire fell from the ranks of top powers into the second tier… In short, we cannot judge the decisions made by the Russian government using common sense; otherwise, we will suffer a major loss.” One does not feel shocked until the analysis is laid out. When faced with a competitor who consistently refuses to play by ordinary rules, anyone would feel their scalp tingle. In truth, the method of inferring behavior purely from national interests does not fully hold. While nations do prioritize interests, the rulers are still human. And as long as they are human, they cannot be absolutely rational. Many times, the personal preferences and impressions of politicians can influence government decisions, especially in feudal monarchies. There is no doubt that the Russian Empire was a typical feudal monarchy. Even Alexander II’s reforms could not change this fundamental nature. It cannot be said that national decisions were dictated entirely by the will of the monarch, but the monarch’s personal feelings had undeniable influence over state policy. The most typical example was that nearly all high-ranking officials in the Russian Empire were anti-Japanese. It was rare to even find a pro-Japanese faction inside the Russian government. There was no other reason than the two scars on Nicholas II’s body. On that basis alone, people naturally harbored hostility toward the Japanese Empire. This was also considered political correctness. If someone attempted to assassinate the monarch you served, remaining indifferent would make it impossible to survive politically. You reap what you sow. Whether they liked it or not, the Japanese government had to pay for its earlier mistake. Of course, the ministers also had deeper concerns. It seemed that over the past several decades, every major strategic misstep by the Russian government had conveniently allowed Austria to pick up the gains. They could not help but think further. A single coincidence was understandable, but two or three consecutive coincidences were simply too coincidental. However, no matter what suspicions they had, there was not much they could do for the moment. If they could see these problems, others could see them as well. The upper ranks of the Russian government had also noticed these issues. Otherwise, it would be impossible to explain why every new Tsar, once ascending the throne, made it a priority to try to break free from dependence on Austria. No one likes being led by the nose, least of all the proud and unruly Russian Bear. But reality and ideals were far apart. For Russia to cut itself free from Austria entirely would be like chopping off a limb, and they simply could not bring themselves to make that decision. Since they could not separate, the only option was to be extremely cautious in policymaking and avoid being subtly misled. After all, such influence operated behind the scenes, and the Austrian government had done nothing openly. Even if Russia fell into a trap, the Russian government could only swallow the bitterness. Admitting it to the outside world was impossible. Once the truth was exposed, it would only prove their own incompetence. … Both governments were trying to find ways to avoid war, and the Japanese government had only done slightly more by strengthening its defenses against Russia. But the situation among the public was completely different. Anti-Japanese sentiment was surging across the Russian Empire, and anti-Russian sentiment in Japan was just as intense. Outside, a dense and angry crowd filled the streets, making the staff of the Russian embassy in Japan too frightened to even go out and buy groceries. The furious shouting never stopped, roaring from morning until night, driving Minister Frotoryak into a rage. “Connect me to the Japanese Foreign Ministry.” A staff member whispered, “Minister, the phone line has been cut. Should we send a telegram instead?” It was clear that Minister Frotoryak held great authority inside the embassy, and none of the staff dared irritate him. Frotoryak roared, “Then what are you standing here for? Hurry up and send it!” Right after shouting, he realized he had misspoken. If they were to send a telegram, he needed to provide the content first. Since he had said nothing yet, of course the staff were waiting. “I am sorry, Frank. I did not mean it. I was simply blinded by anger at the Japanese just now. With such a commotion outside, I do not believe for a moment that the Japanese government is unaware. They clearly know someone is causing trouble and refuse to stop it. This is a provocation against the great Russian Empire. Tell the guards to stay ready. If anyone dares cross the line, do not show any mercy.” There was no doubt the last sentence was only spoken in anger. If the guards had really dared to open fire, they would have done so already. After a pause, Frotoryak continued, “Report our situation to the government back home and invite the other embassies in Japan to join us in pressuring the Japanese government. Notify the Japanese Foreign Ministry and demand that they disperse the rioters within two hours, otherwise…” He did not actually know what the “otherwise” was supposed to mean. Diplomatic intimidation had to be directed at the right target. It was not that Japan could never be intimidated, but the real issue was that Russia simply did not have enough power in the Far East to frighten them. If a stern diplomatic note came from the Holy Roman Empire or from Britain, it might have carried some real weight, but coming from the Russian Empire, it fell a little short. Even so, Ambassador Frotoryak was not too worried. This was the embassy district, and the Russian embassy was not the only one here. The British and Holy Roman embassies were only a few hundred meters away. With the chaos outside making such a racket, they were not the only ones suffering. The neighbors were having just as hard a time. If the crowds had been gathering just for the spectacle, the commotion had gone on long enough. Even just for the sake of getting a decent night’s sleep, the other embassies would put pressure on the Japanese government. Japan never lacked extremists. Ordinary Japanese people could hardly tell the difference between Europeans. They would simply lump all white foreigners together and protest against them as one group. If things escalated, none of the embassies would have any peace. Cases of mistaken identity were extremely common. A loud “bang” broke the air. “What was that sound?” Frotoryak was certain it was not a gunshot. Bullets did not sound like that when fired, and he had enough experience to know. Besides, the embassy guards were not fools. No matter how much they disliked the Japanese, they understood exactly where they were. If hundreds or thousands of Russian troops had been stationed here, then there would be nothing to discuss. They could simply fight back. Unfortunately, the embassy only had a little more than a dozen guards. Compared with the sea of protesters outside, they were insignificant. Even with rifles, there was nothing they could do. Under someone’s roof, one had to bow their head. When the gap in strength was that large, even burning anger had to be swallowed first. “The glass broke. Someone threw a rock into the embassy.” That was only the beginning. People were easily influenced by others. Once someone took the lead in doing something, there would never be a shortage of imitators. Soon, the sounds of smashing echoed endlessly. The stones flying through the air not only shattered windows but could also injure people. The situation was sliding into chaos. The crowd’s frenzy had been ignited, and their courage was growing bolder. No one noticed that just a few hundred meters away, a dark rifle barrel was quietly aimed at the protesters. “Aim for the one holding the flag. Make sure the shot is clear.”
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