After receiving the news from the Far East, Saint Petersburg was thrown into turmoil, and Nicholas II was pushed to the brink of exploding in anger. The exact cause no longer mattered. In his eyes, the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese clash in the Far East meant only one thing: Japan was provoking Russia. The old score had yet to be settled, and now the Japanese dared to stir up trouble again. This was absolutely intolerable. If not for the fact that the Trans-Siberian Railway was still incomplete and logistical pressure severely limited any military operation, Nicholas II would have already marched out to destroy Japan. Of course, that was nothing more than a thought. With the international landscape as tangled as it was, only a fool would rashly ignite a war. The Russian government indeed planned to push eastward, but when to move and under what conditions required careful judgment. “Once bitten, twice shy.” Over the past decades, the Russian Empire had suffered enough defeats. After swallowing loss after loss, the Russian authorities finally gained some wisdom. One moment they advanced south, the next they advanced east. Their strategic direction seemed ever shifting, but this too was a kind of political insight. Under the shadow of the British government and the Holy Roman Empire struggling for dominance, the Russian Empire, despite being the third strongest power in the world, felt no joy at the thought of reaping profits. What it felt instead was deep, suffocating anxiety. There was no helping it. Russia was too weak to compete for world hegemony. Yet it was also too strong to quietly hide in the shadows and wait to pick up the scraps. Although relations between Russia and Austria were outwardly good, suspicion and mistrust still lingered between their governments. If even the Austrian government did not feel at ease with Russia, there was no need to mention the British government at all. In a sense, the better the Russian Empire performed now, the more it invited the wariness of both superpowers. Nicholas II might have been indecisive by nature, but he was far from a fool. With the elder ministers left behind by Alexander III still holding the line, the Russian government had not yet slipped into chaos. Getting involved in the struggle for hegemony between the Holy Roman Empire and the British government could indeed bring short-term gains. Yet once those two powers decided the final victor, the Russian Empire would be the next to suffer. Given Russia’s sheer size, any victor would view it with deep suspicion. Suppression would be unavoidable. Remaining neutral was impossible as well. Russia’s strength was enough to influence the outcome of the entire contest. Neither Austria nor Britain would allow such an unstable factor to stand on the sidelines. This was naturally not the situation the Russian government wanted. The ideal outcome was for Britain and the Holy Roman Empire to destroy each other, allowing Russia to rise in the chaos and take its place at the top. Clearly, that was nothing more than wishful thinking. Both powers had their own undeniable advantages. Expecting them to perish together in a head-on clash was almost impossible. From the Russian government’s perspective, there was only one realistic path. Before the battle for global supremacy erupted, they had to seize as many benefits as possible and strengthen themselves. Whether pushing south toward India or advancing east into East Asia, completing either grand strategy would allow Russia to shed its old skin and once again stand at the summit of the world. Unfortunately, achieving either goal was exceedingly difficult. The Russian government had already tried both and failed each time. More than a decade ago, in the Anglo-Russian War, they had personally experienced the true strength of the British Empire. With endless Indian cannon fodder forming the heart of the British forces, even Russia’s hardened troops felt chills down their spines. Of course, this was not enough to make the Tsar give up on India. The enemy’s troops were numerous, yet their combat effectiveness was unimpressive. Such soft targets were exactly the kind the Russian military loved to bully. What truly frightened the Russian government was the overwhelming national power of the British Empire. As long as the British government refused to give up, they could drag the fight out indefinitely. After all, the British did not have many things in abundance across their colonies, but population was never one of their shortages. Even if the ratio became five to one or ten to one, the British government could still afford to lose people. A population base of five hundred million was Britain’s greatest source of confidence. If the war dragged on, it would be the Russian Empire that collapsed first. Even the support of the Holy Roman Empire would be useless. In the face of national interest, allies were never reliable. No one could guarantee that the Austrian government would not stab Russia in the back at the most critical moment. The southward strategy had stalled, and the eastward strategy was not any easier. The enemies were not particularly strong, but the logistics were abysmal. Back during the multinational siege against the Qing Dynasty, the Russian government had already experienced firsthand the crushing pressure of logistics. The homeland could barely sustain the supply of several tens of thousands of troops and had been forced to purchase provisions from nearby Japan. Once the eastward expansion plan officially began, the problem would grow far beyond a few divisions. Without at least a million troops, the so-called Yellow Russia Plan was nothing more than a dream. Tens of thousands of soldiers could be supplied through local purchases, but no one in their right mind would trust the logistics of a million-man army to a foreign supplier. Even if the Russian government was foolish enough to buy from Japan, the Japanese would never sell. Once Russia implemented its eastward strategy, the Russian Empire and Japan would inevitably become enemies. As long as the Tsar wished to expand eastward, the only two independent states in the Far East would naturally stand against Russia. Having many enemies was not the issue. The Russian government was not easily intimidated. The real problem lay in overwhelming logistical pressure. Even if the Trans-Siberian Railway were already completed and fully operational, a single-track line could never sustain the supply chain of a million-man army. That was pure fantasy. If Russia could not advance in one decisive strike, then it would have to adopt a gradual, piecemeal approach instead. Unfortunately, the Russian government had barely taken its first step when Japan immediately moved to strike it down. It was even more troublesome that with the Russian Empire’s limited ability to project power in the Far East, it could not do anything about the Japanese for now. There was even a risk that Japan might threaten Russia instead. Neither side was an easy target, yet Russia could not immediately devour either one. The greedy Russian government naturally did not want to give up on any of them. The outside world believed that the Russian government was wavering strategically, but the Russians themselves did not see it that way. From another perspective, it could be called a “flexible diplomatic strategy.” They were simply waiting for a major shift in the international situation. Once that happened, the Russian Empire could seize the chance to move south or east, or even launch both strategies at the same time. The moment they were waiting for was the hegemonic war between Britain and the Holy Roman Empire. As long as the two major powers started fighting, the Russian Empire would be free to act. It was obvious that Nicholas II, born with a sense of divine entitlement, was not someone who could tolerate setbacks. Russia had suffered losses in the previous conflict, and he was already unable to hold back. Prime Minister Sergei Witte said, “Your Majesty, please calm yourself. We will settle accounts with the Japanese sooner or later. There is no need to argue with a country that is destined to fall. On the surface, it looks like we suffered this time, but if you look at it from another angle, a bad situation can also turn into a good one. The Austrian government has always opposed our eastward expansion. In recent years, our expansion in the east has already created friction between our two countries. The current situation is the best opportunity to repair that relationship. We can use this chance to send a message to the outside world and tell the Austrians that our eastward strategy has suffered a setback. If necessary, we can even pretend to give up the Far East entirely to mislead other countries and cover our eastward plans. As for the conflict with Japan, there is no need to rush. We can delay it until the Trans-Siberian Railway is completed, and only then decide how to handle it.” Saving face is never as important as securing real benefits. The Russian Empire was perfectly capable of bending when necessary. For the sake of national interest, Sergei Witte did not mind swallowing his pride first. As for destroying Japan, that was not something said casually. Not long after Nicholas II took the throne, the Russian government had already drawn up a detailed plan for eliminating Japan. Of course, plans were always just plans. Every country had plenty of strategic proposals, some realistic and some entirely unrealistic. In a sense, the strategic plans of various national think tanks were nothing more than competitions in imagination. Feasibility did not matter. What mattered was who could come up with the wildest ideas. Even if only one tenth of these grand strategies could be achieved, any country that managed that much would become the leader of the world. Compared with insane plans like conquering the entire world or landing on the sun, wiping out Japan was practically trivial. Among all the Russian Empire’s strategic plans, it was definitely one of the most feasible. After hearing the prime minister’s advice, Nicholas II felt much better. After all, he was a monarch with dignity and status. He could not afford to quarrel with a “dying country.” “Very well,” he said. “Let them enjoy themselves for a few more days. Later, we will settle both the new and the old debts together.” It was obvious that Nicholas II still had not let go of his anger. Once the time was right, he would certainly make trouble for Japan. But that did not matter. Everyone present also held no affection for the Japanese. They simply could not act yet because their own strength was insufficient. Once the conditions were right, none of them would hesitate to let Japan experience what the “bear’s roar” truly meant. When it came to holding grudges, Russians were definitely among the best in the world. Foreign Minister Mikhailovich reported, “Your Majesty, we have uncovered the real reason why the Americans are helping us build the Trans-Siberian Railway. Based on the intelligence we gathered from various sources and after deep analysis, we can confirm that Britain is involved. The Foreign Ministry believes that the British are intentionally pushing us eastward in order to reduce their military pressure in India. This also explains why the Americans insisted on constructing only a single-track line instead of a double-track one.” Anyone who can play the political game is no fool. Although the efficiency of the Russian government was a little low, the abilities of its senior officials were certainly not. The Trans-Siberian Railway project had been underway for several years, yet the Russian government still had not stopped investigating the Americans’ true intentions. Facts proved that persistence paid off. No matter how tightly the British and American governments tried to conceal the matter, they still left clues during their dealings. At first, the Russians did not notice anything, but over time, once everyone had time to think, the irregularities became obvious. This was not a criminal case, so they did not need concrete evidence. As long as they could show that the British had both the motive and the capability to plot behind the scenes, that alone was enough to conclude that the British government was responsible. Nicholas II slapped the table and said coldly, “So it really is like this. In the face of national interest, friendship truly means nothing. But that does not matter. Let us treat it as mutual exploitation. We intended to build the Trans-Siberian Railway anyway. With American help, we saved some money. As for the remaining costs, we will not pay them. I am sure the British have already settled the bill for us.” He spoke lightly, yet his tense expression revealed that he was far from calm. Since the trail led to Britain, the upcoming eastward expansion had to be considered even more carefully. Nicholas II did not believe the British would spend so much effort simply to lure the Russian Empire eastward. Although the Trans-Siberian Railway was a single-track line and its transport capacity was limited, nothing prevented it from being upgraded into a double-track line later. Since a railway already existed, adding another line beside it would be far easier than constructing from the ground up. At the very least, transportation would no longer be a problem. Once the railway upgrade was completed, the logistical obstacle that had restricted the Russian Empire’s eastward expansion would finally be resolved. If Russia could commit its full national strength, those two independent Far Eastern countries were in no position to block it, unless they could join forces. Clearly, that was impossible. Ever since the first shot of the Sino-Japanese War, the relationship between the two countries had been doomed to remain tense. As long as the Russian government applied its foreign policy with care and expanded at a steady pace, nothing would go wrong. The fact that Britain could hold back the Russian army in India, where it had operated for over a century, did not mean it could obstruct Russia in the Far East. After thinking for a moment, Nicholas II sensed a problem. There was no way the British truly intended to help Russia carry out the “Yellow Russia Plan.” The conflict between Britain and Russia had a long history. Stabbing each other in the back was normal, while helping the other side grow stronger would only empower a future enemy. What exactly the problem was, Nicholas II could not yet identify. But the Russian government became noticeably more cautious when dealing with Far Eastern affairs. … The events unfolding in Saint Petersburg were completely unknown to the Japanese government. It was not that their intelligence services were inactive. The simple truth was that the physical differences between Russians and Japanese made infiltration impossible. At present, Japan’s intelligence gathering on the Russian Empire relied solely on newspapers, radio broadcasts, and gossip overheard in taverns. Buying informants or infiltrating deep into the Russian government was something they could imagine, but in reality, it was completely unworkable. It was not that the Russian government was good at keeping secrets. On the contrary, its secrecy was among the worst in the world and could be described as a giant sieve. The real reason Japan’s intelligence services failed to achieve anything was simple: they were poor. Without money, nothing could be done. Ever since the Russo-Japanese tensions flared up and the situation in the Far East grew tense, the Japanese government had been in a state of panic. After all, they were facing the Russian Empire, the so-called “European steamroller,” one of the world’s top great powers. Although Russia had fallen behind the times in recent decades, it was still not something a newly risen Japan could casually provoke. The Philippine War was the best example. Even Spain, the weakest of the great powers, managed to fight Japan to a draw across thousands of miles of ocean. Against a far stronger Russia, the conclusion was obvious. When it came to facing Russians, none of Japan’s senior officials had confidence. This was not cowardice. They were simply being honest with themselves. Forget the propaganda about “shattering the myth of white invincibility” after the Japanese–Spanish War. The Japanese government knew very well that it had been a disastrous defeat. The only real gain was the rapid expansion of the Japanese Navy. Unfortunately, that opportunity came with serious problems. The fleet grew too large, and ever since the Sino-Japanese War, the government had struggled with how to afford its upkeep. With that painful lesson in mind, Japan’s leaders remained deeply wary of fighting any European power. If they won, they had to worry about the coalition of European nations interfering and denying them their gains. If they lost, the result would be even worse. They could fall back to the pre-Meiji Restoration era, or worse, end up colonized. Whether the war was won or lost, Japan was destined to be the loser the moment it began. If the ending was bound to be a tragedy, why start a war at all? Military hardliners had not yet seized power. The civilian political faction led by Itō Hirobumi still firmly controlled the government. Apart from a somewhat intense martial spirit, Japan was still a fairly normal country. Only the young mid-level and lower-level officers were full of enthusiasm, brimming with youthful arrogance and ambition. As for the government’s top leadership, they had absolutely no interest in war, at least not any time soon.
[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]
Comments
Post a Comment