For Austria, the greatest significance of the Treaty of Vienna did not lie in restraining France but in clearing the final obstacle to German unification. Russia, Spain, and Prussia had all been bought off. As for the Netherlands, Portugal, and the Nordic Federation, even if they wished to oppose it, they had to consider whether they were strong enough to withstand retaliation. With the continental nations offering no opposition, overseas countries were even less of a concern. In this era, only European great powers interfered in overseas affairs, and never had overseas nations meddled in European matters. Unable to find like-minded supporters, the British were also helpless. Diplomatic protests had no effect, and they certainly could not resort to armed intervention. With no other choice, the British government was forced to compromise. In exchange for recognizing Austria’s annexation of the German Federation, the Austrian government agreed to acknowledge Britain’s annexation of French Indochina. Of course, everyone knew that such recognition made little difference. Britain could not stop the Austro-German union, and Austria could do nothing about Britain’s annexation of French Indochina. Mutual recognition was nothing more than a way to preserve appearances. On June 12, 1892, under the witness of the international community, Austria and the German states jointly signed the Treaty of the Holy Roman Empire. Almost at the same time, the Parliament of the German Federation announced the dissolution of the North German Empire. In the afternoon, George I issued an abdication proclamation. As witnesses of history, people saw in a single day the fall of one nation and the rebirth of another, a shock that was undoubtedly immense. Anyone with a bit of political sense knew that the times had changed. The European continent had once again returned to the era of the Holy Roman Empire, and the international order shifted from three great powers to a dual balance of strength. Fortunately, the conflict between Britain and Austria did not intensify. Otherwise, simply choosing sides would have been enough to drive people to despair. Yet everyone understood that this stability was only temporary. For world hegemony, a rupture between Britain and Austria was only a matter of time. … Night fell, and sighs drifted out from the Japanese embassy in Vienna. “If one does not step outside, one never realizes how swiftly the world changes. As the Chinese say, thirty years the river flows east, thirty years it flows west. And yet, how little time has passed, and already the once all-powerful French Empire has collapsed so suddenly. We thought our own pace of development was fast enough, yet compared with the great powers we remain far behind. It seems reform cannot be allowed to stall. When this war is over, we must press on and deepen our institutional reforms, striving to catch up as soon as possible.” It was Itō Hirobumi. Once his sighs had passed, his resolve quickly returned. Yet the shadow of worry lingering between his brows refused to fade. Political speculation has always been a venture of high returns and high risks. The Japanese government had miscalculated in its earlier maneuvering, failing to switch sides in time, and now it had to bear the consequences. Fortunately, it had not waged everything. By keeping a reserve hand, it had avoided leaping directly onto the French vessel. Otherwise, Japan too would now be sinking with the great ship. “Reform? But is not Austria the most conservative country in Europe? Apart from the Russian Empire, none is more so.” Saigō Tsugumichi asked in puzzlement. That was indeed the impression held by the world. Compared with France, the vanguard of so-called liberty, Austria could well be called conservative. Yet now liberty has been defeated by conservatism. Many began to wonder whether France had not gone too far in its pursuit of liberty. The newspapers had already laid bare the causes and consequences of the Continental War. Everyone knew that France had been driven forward by capitalists and the banner of public opinion, until in the end it marched onto a road from which there was no return. Itō Hirobumi disagreed, “Where do you see Austria being conservative? Aside from the absence of a bunch of loudmouths, the lack of constant strikes and demonstrations, and no election manifestos plastered everywhere, what exactly are they missing?” Thanks to the strict enforcement of the press law, newspapers had to take responsibility for the authenticity of their content, and the trend of society being manipulated by money was reversed. In this context, criticism was fine, but it had to be grounded in reality. Articles filled with baseless accusations were simply not published by any paper. Strikes and demonstrations still existed, but not as frequently as in France, and they certainly never occurred in Vienna. After all, the factories had been relocated, so where would a workers’ movement even come from? Because the colonies had long been recruiting immigrants, Austrian capitalists even had to compete with the colonies for manpower, so they did not dare excessively exploit the workers. Negative cases were not unheard of. For example, in one factory, due to severe labor disputes, the workers collectively walked off the job, leaving no one to fulfill the orders, and the owner nearly went mad under the pressure of penalty clauses. As for “election manifestos” flooding the streets, that was out of the question. Austrian law explicitly prohibited them. Putting up such posters was like pasting oneself into jail, so naturally no one did it. In Itō Hirobumi’s eyes, this was a sign of order. Cultural differences between East and West aside, Japan placed particular emphasis on rules. Especially when paired with Austria’s present prosperity and flourishing strength, these advantages were further magnified. Being skilled at learning from others, Itō Hirobumi naturally wanted to draw lessons from it. After pondering for a moment, Saigō Tsugumichi nodded thoughtfully. Austria was now vast in territory, rich in resources, advanced in industry, prosperous in economy, strong in its military, and stable in politics. Specifically speaking, what could be said to be “lacking”? This was a question that hardly anyone could answer. If one had to point out a shortcoming, it was only that the navy was not the best in the world. This cannot be regarded as a weakness. It was not that Austria lacked the ability to build a navy. Compared with the Royal Navy, the only difference lay in numbers and experience. These could be remedied as numbers could be bought with money and experience could be accumulated with time. There was no qualitative gap between them, and the difference between the first and the second was not unbridgeable. For Japan, however, the thought of possessing the world’s second-largest navy was beyond imagination. No matter what, it could never be said that Austria lacked a navy. After a long pause, Saigō Tsugumichi slowly said, “Itō-kun, are you intending to revive the Vienna route?” At the start of the Meiji Restoration, Japan had studied several European nations, which produced multiple reform models. Among them was the so-called Vienna route, modeled after Austria. Yet, for various reasons, it was eventually discarded. The Meiji Restoration instead drew mainly from Britain, France, and Prussia, and from that blend, Japan forged its own path of development. In the original course of history, Japan’s reforms, apart from politics, could largely be considered successful. Now things were different. With the successive defeats of Prussia and France, doubts arose within Japan about the soundness of this path. Itō Hirobumi waved his hand and said, “No. Austria’s path of development cannot be replicated. We do not have the deep foundations they possessed. Even if we wished to imitate them, it would be impossible. Remember, even in its weakest days, Austria remained one of the four great powers of the world. After Emperor Franz ascended the throne and settled internal troubles, he immediately threw the nation into the colonial tide. Austria opened territories in Africa, the Americas, and the East Indies (Southeast Asia). As its strength grew, it turned back and swallowed the Ottoman Empire. Only then was today’s Austrian Empire forged.” In a sense, Japan’s strategy was also an imitation of Austria’s. Unfortunately, their luck was ill-fated. Just as they stepped beyond their borders, they stumbled into a formidable opponent. In the past, when European nations fought over colonies, once a territory was seized, as long as one displayed enough strength to make the cost of resistance unbearable, matters could usually be resolved at the negotiating table. It was rare for anyone to fight to the bitter end. Judging from the current situation, even if Spain managed to retake the Philippine Islands, the price would be a terrible one. The risks were enormous, and the gains would never match the sacrifice. By all logic, this should have been the time to move negotiations forward. As long as Japan was willing to pay a certain price, the matter could have been settled. Regrettably, none of this experience applied now. It was one thing to lose to a European power, but to lose to Japan? That was something Spain could never stomach. All the more so since the defeat of France had roused Spanish nationalism to feverish heights, with cries for vengeance rising to the heavens. With the spoils gained from the war against France, Spain quickly assembled an expeditionary fleet and now possessed the means for revenge. To run into such an iron wall at the very first step dealt Japan’s government a blow like no other. To continue following Austria’s colonial path was something Itō Hirobumi no longer dared even to dream of. If given the choice, he would have much preferred to pack up and return home, to cease the pace of expansion, to settle down and quietly cultivate the land while slowly building up national strength. Japan lacked resources, and if it relied solely on farming, its development would surely be slow. Yet at least it would be safe. Rapid expansion might bring swift gains, but it also brought swift destruction. Prussia in recent years, and now France, stood as cautionary tales of those who had fallen upon the road of ambition. Saigō Tsugumichi said quietly, “It is true, there is no way for us to copy them. Our foundation is far too weak. If it were our old neighbor across the water, perhaps they might have some chance of success. But enough of that. We should focus on the present. The Anti-French Coalition has proposed that the warships undergo a round of maintenance before delivery. It will take a month. If nothing goes wrong, the Spanish expeditionary fleet will also depart within a month. To hope that the ships might be returned home before the war begins is nearly impossible.” Itō Hirobumi nodded and said, “That was expected. As a member of the Anti-French Coalition, Spain must be granted at least this much courtesy. Even if the Alliance did not delay us, it would still be difficult to spirit the ships home ahead of them. Here, look at today’s paper. The Suez Canal has reopened. With the fall of France, its ownership passed entirely into Austria’s hands. According to the Austrian-Spanish Port Agreement signed more than thirty years ago, Spanish warships may use Austrian ports as stopovers, so naturally they will have no trouble passing through the Suez. For us, that door is closed. Not only did we lean toward France in our earlier statements, but even if we trace matters back decades, relations between us and Austria have always been distant. As for the warships, our only hope now lies with Britain. Fortunately, they too have quarrels with Spain and would be glad to see the Spaniards stumble.” The coolness of Austro-Japanese relations rested on two points. First, Japan’s reforms had taken Britain, France, and Prussia as models, and its trade flowed primarily toward those three powers, leaving little exchange with Austria. Second, when Franz first took the throne, he had not yet mastered his temper and made no effort to conceal his lack of interest in Japan. Without strong economic interests to bind them, relations between the two countries never deepened. The Emperor’s indifference set the tone, and no Austrian official was willing to waste effort on a nation seen as inessential. At that time Austria was far from the great power it had become, and after receiving such a cold reception, the Japanese government saw no reason to pursue closer ties. Neglect in ordinary times meant that when the critical moment arrived, there was no goodwill to draw upon. Were it not for Britain’s concern that a revived Spain might threaten the Strait of Gibraltar by reclaiming Roussillon, Japan would have faced true disaster. Hearing that there was now a way to secure the ships, Saigo let out a long breath of relief. Unable to hold back, he said, “Excellent. With Britain’s support, defeating Spain will not be so difficult.” Having clashed with the Spaniards once before, the Japanese Navy still carried a certain psychological advantage. The only real concern was the overwhelming gap in strength between the two fleets. Itō Hirobumi replied with a bitter smile, “It will not be that simple. Spain is a member of the Anti-French Coalition. Even after the war is over, bonds of fraternity will still remain. If Britain intervenes in the conflict, the coalition cannot simply stand aside, and Britain will never risk turning hostile to the coalition merely for our sake. In order not to provoke them, the support Britain offers us will surely be limited. To win this war, we must rely on our own strength.” Once again it was clear that success for a nation depended greatly on choosing the right allies. Britain was the perfect example of unreliability. Itō Hirobumi had not forgotten how France was sold out in the Continental War just recently. At the outbreak of that war Britain and France had been allies. The British government did indeed side with the French, yet they never ceased to seize every chance to profit from the chaos. Outwardly they supported France, but in truth they strove to preserve the balance of power, hoping that Austria and France might wear each other down. But plans never keep pace with reality. The British government had not expected Austria to conceal its true strength, only to strike a mortal blow at France at the decisive moment. As soon as it became clear that France’s fate was sealed, Britain’s first reaction was not to lend its ally a hand, but to tear up the treaty unilaterally and add to the calamity. This was hardly an isolated case. Belgium too had once followed Britain’s lead, only to be betrayed and driven into Austria’s embrace. If Britain could betray her allies, how much easier would it be to betray Japan, which was not even counted as one? Yet knowing this made no difference. Itō Hirobumi had no choice, nor did the Japanese government. Spain was always the weakest among the great powers, but it remained as a great power, and its international influence was formidable. Apart from Britain, no nation was willing to risk angering Spain at this moment by selling warships to Japan. The tragedy was that without securing a fresh batch of warships from Britain, there would be no hope of fighting the coming battles at all. Saigō Tsugumichi sat silent for a long while before speaking slowly. “Even so, Britain’s support is still better than none. So long as we win this war, we can agree to whatever conditions they set for now. Everything can be settled again after the fighting is over.” The two men exchanged a long glance and dropped the heavy subject. What followed was far too dangerous to speak aloud. Should even a whisper leak out, Japan itself might be ruined. Some matters had to remain unsaid.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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