The world doesn’t stop for anyone. So, even with the president in the hospital, it didn’t affect the normal proceedings of the conference. Without Robert, there could still be a Libert or a Lambert. Pull any random delegate from the French mission and the script would continue just the same. Although the cameras recorded everything that happened in the hall, finding the culprit was impossible. Every person who took action was a delegate from one country or another, each protected by diplomatic immunity. More than twenty nations were involved. Even if someone wanted to pursue responsibility, it simply could not be done. Ignoring the French protests, the delegates who had resorted to violence were escorted out of the chamber, and with that the matter was considered closed. … “No, this treaty is far too harsh. It has already exceeded what France can bear. We demand revisions. We can accept the cession of certain colonies, but the clauses regarding the loss of our homeland must be struck out. We can accept reparations, but the sum must be reduced. We can accept the punishment of war criminals, but the list of names is inaccurate and must be redetermined…” With Robert gone, the French delegation’s behavior became much more measured. It was clear that aside from the scapegoat president, the French government had sent in a professional negotiating team. “Mr. James, one must always pay for one’s mistakes. Your country started this mad war. Do you still think you can shirk responsibility now?” In international negotiations, the interests of small countries were always the easiest to sacrifice. Even though the anti-French coalition had already reached a consensus, until the treaty was formally signed, everything was still subject to reversal. Belgium paid a heavy price in this war, but the spoils it gained were also considerable. In order to quickly secure these benefits in the treaty, Prime Minister Jules, as Belgium’s representative, had no choice but to take the lead. James shook his head and replied solemnly, “No, I am only stating a fact. Eighty billion guilders in war reparations, calculated at an interest rate of five per thousand, means that just the monthly interest alone amounts to four hundred million guilders. Not only now, but even before the war, France’s annual revenue was less than four hundred million guilders. Selling all of France would still not be enough. Sir, what do you expect us to use to repay this? No great nation can tolerate its territory being divided, and France is no exception. We cannot accept any clause that demands ceding our homeland. If you insist on seizing land, then peace will never return to the European continent.” “I can understand, but is this a threat?” Jules retorted sharply. Today was not like the past. The hatred between Belgium and France had already sunk deep into the bone. Offending the French was no longer a problem. On the contrary, not seizing the chance to weaken France was the real danger. James repeated with firm conviction, “No, I am only stating a fact!” Though the words carried the tone of a threat, openly admitting it was impossible. Acting rashly might indeed cause trouble for the anti-French alliance, but the one who would suffer the most would still be France. If the alliance was provoked into taking harsher measures, then France truly would have no future. The only thing France could rely on now was the anti-French alliance’s desire to cut its losses. At this stage of the war, continuing would bring no greater gains. Knowing when to stop was the only way to maximize benefits. If France truly ceased to exist, not only would there be no hope of collecting war reparations, but the anti-French coalition itself would come to an end. Without the alliance, Austria’s dream of dominating the European continent would not be nearly so easy to realize. With the French threat gone, Switzerland, Belgium, Spain, and the Italian states would hardly remain so obedient. In a sense, Austria was simply replicating the strategy America would later use after the Second World War: binding the European nations to itself through the looming shadow of the Soviet Union, and once its hegemony was secure, casting the Soviets aside with a single kick. It was a blatant conspiracy. None of France’s neighbors lacked the desire to carve her up, yet limited by their own strength, they could not devour her whole. In such a situation, they were compelled to rely on Austria. Sensing that the scene might spiral out of control, Wessenberg spoke slowly, “Mr. James, if you cannot pay or cannot accept the terms, that is your country’s problem. The devastation wrought by war is this great, and the responsibility should be borne by you. Of course, we will take reality into account and set a reasonable standard for compensation. The world is moving forward, and our vision must look ahead. Being unable to pay now does not mean being unable to pay in the future. Since the dawn of the industrial age, human wealth has grown at a geometric pace. Eighty billion guilders is indeed a vast sum, but I believe in your nation’s capacity.” Bargaining was inevitable. Everyone knew France could not possibly shoulder reparations of eighty billion guilders. Without a devaluation of the guilder, no nation on earth could withstand such a burden. The so-called future repayment would not be a problem if interest were not calculated. Unfortunately, this is compound interest, and the accumulated rate is astonishing. Annual revenue is tied to economic development, and if we want to outrun the interest, the growth rate of the economy cannot fall below seven percent. The Second Industrial Revolution is still ongoing, and the economic growth rate of each country is not satisfactory. With enough effort, seven percent is not impossible, but there is also something in this world called an “economic crisis.” When people lose hope, they fall into despair. The same applies to nations. Spending a lifetime working for others with no return in sight will make anyone weary. If they want the French to work hard to repay their debts, they must leave them with hope. That is why debt is negotiable, but ceding territory is out of the question. Once territory has been devoured by other countries, there is no way to make them spit it out again at the negotiating table. James bowed politely and said with self-deprecation, “Thank you for your trust, but you have overestimated us far too much. If France were really that powerful, I would not be standing here. The French colonial empire has already collapsed, Italy has gained independence, our homeland has been devastated by war, and our economy is on the brink of collapse. Now France’s overall national strength is less than one-third of what it was before the war. The mess at home alone is enough to keep us occupied. If within twenty years we can restore the economy to pre-war levels, that will be by the grace of God. Numbers do not lie. France’s current annual revenue does not exceed 50 million guilders. It is not enough even to cover domestic expenditure, so with what can we pay reparations? No matter how large the indemnities are, if they cannot be collected, they remain nothing more than an empty number without the slightest value.” The tone was sincere, and the content was nothing but hard facts. France was indeed a complete mess at the moment. A makeshift government filled with all sorts of people, starving citizens waiting to be fed, local powerholders opposing the revolutionary government, the million-strong anti-French coalition army, and the enormous indemnity under negotiation all stood as problems before the current French government. Any one of these issues going wrong could lead to the collapse of the newborn French revolutionary government. In fact, if it were not for the coalition armies suppressing unrest in the provinces, France would have already fallen into chaos. A chaotic France was certainly not in anyone’s interest. Not only would indemnities never be collected, but more importantly, chaos meant unpredictability. Turmoil did not necessarily produce heroes, but it certainly produced warlords. If another military genius like Napoleon were to appear, then Europe would once again face a continental war. “Mr. James, we have taken all of these problems into consideration. After the war, your country only needs to make a one-time payment of 30 million guilders. The rest of the debt will be paid in installments. Starting in 1893, your country will pay 10 million guilders annually. In 1896, the annual indemnity will increase by 1.5 million guilders. In 1901, it will increase again by 3 million guilders annually...” With indemnities increasing year by year, when the debt could finally be settled was a question only God could answer. As for Wessenberg, the man who proposed this plan, he certainly had no idea. The only advantage of the arrangement was that the indemnity remained within the French government’s capacity to bear. As long as the French government practiced frugality, such as downsizing the army and cutting administrative expenses, it would be able to pay. Perhaps realizing the dreadful consequences, James hastily protested, “No, with such a payment scheme, even after a hundred years we would still not be able to clear this debt. The responsibility of our generation must not be forced upon the next. They have no obligation to shoulder a burden that does not rightfully belong to them.” … Since the grand play had already begun, it had to continue. In the face of interests, both the French representatives and those of the anti-French coalition argued their positions fiercely. As the debates grew heated, the other attending delegates gradually assumed the role of mediators, doing their utmost to ease the tensions between the parties. One could only say that everyone was an outstanding actor. Even without a script, they were able to respond to each line perfectly. The quarrels dragged on for more than a month without reaching any agreement, until the scapegoat, President Robert, was discharged from the hospital. Only then did this war of words come to a close. Throwing the draft treaty of the anti-French coalition to the floor, Robert asked with deep frustration, “Mr. James, is this the result you have achieved after all these days?” There was almost no change in the territorial cessions. The colonies were certainly all lost, and the land to be ceded from the homeland had not shrunk in the slightest. The only meaningful adjustment was a reduction in reparations. From 80 billion down to 40 billion, it seemed like the amount was halved, but in essence, nothing had changed. The French revolutionary government still could not afford to pay. Compared with the initial draft, the greatest change was in the list of war criminals. At last, the main leaders of the revolutionary party were removed and replaced with the senior figures of the government-in-exile. Unfortunately, this carried no real significance. The government-in-exile had long fled far away. Apart from Napoleon IV who still showed himself in public, the rest had already assumed new identities and could not be brought back. The revolutionary government had only just seized power. No matter how blame was shifted, it was impossible to make them bear responsibility for war crimes. The anti-French coalition also abided by rules. Even if the revolutionary leaders were brought before a war tribunal, they would eventually be acquitted. The revolutionaries managed to escape, but not all of their backers did. The consortia, arms dealers, bankers, and other great capitalists, who had already been struck hard once by Napoleon IV, were once again targeted by the anti-French coalition. All in all, they were not really wronged. This war had indeed been stirred up by them. To brand them as war criminals was perfectly justifiable. Although they had dragged the French government down during the war and, in doing so, rendered outstanding service to the Anti-French Coalition’s victory, they had simply grown too fat. Napoleon IV only seized the cash they had on hand, but the vast mines, factories, and estates still remained in their possession. This small circle of men controlled at least half the wealth of France. The member states of the Anti-French Coalition were nearly penniless. Faced with such immense riches, how could anyone willingly let them slip away? Taking everything outright was impossible, but demanding a share to cover the losses of war was entirely reasonable. The coalition troops stationed in France acted quickly. Except for a few lucky ones who managed to escape, the rest of them had merely left the wolf’s den only to fall into the tiger’s jaws. Before them lay only two paths: either pay a handsome ransom to buy back their lives, or face trial before a war tribunal. To politicians, the value of these financiers had already plummeted from the very moment the revolution succeeded. If the Anti-French Coalition could rid them of such men, many would secretly rejoice. After all, the pie that was France had grown much smaller. Unless these vested interests were eliminated, how could the newcomers ever rise? Of course, President Robert did not share this view. To him, it was nothing less than selling out his own comrades, a thoroughly dishonorable act. James disagreed, “Mr. President, no one wants things to reach this point, but we must face reality. The Anti-French Coalition has issued a final ultimatum. If we refuse to sign the treaty, then the revolutionary government has no value in existing. They will impose military rule over France and take over the functions of government. At the conference, the Russian delegate even proposed partition and occupation. If it comes to that, France will become their colony.” “No value in existing” did not necessarily mean dissolution, but if France were truly partitioned and occupied, then the French revolutionary government would become a stumbling block. A stumbling block would have to be kicked aside, and revolutionaries who rose up by rebellion would never let them be. If they were not eliminated, no one could sleep soundly. When the butcher’s knife was raised, the French revolutionary government could no longer stand firm. Apart from President Robert, who was destined to take the blame, the others were already prepared to compromise first. President Robert, whose resolve was weak, wavered once more and asked anxiously, “Will the Parliament agree?” As a president who believed he was chosen through democratic election, Robert held the Parliament in high regard. That they had chosen a president so deeply concerned for the country was, to him, proof enough of the worth of the French Parliament. Facing Robert’s worried expression, James could not help but feel some pity. But in the end, reason prevailed over sentiment. Better another than himself, someone had to bear the blame. “Mr. President, while you were injured, the Parliament already sent a telegram. I only withheld it to let you recover in peace. The Anti-French Coalition’s troops are running rampant in the country, and the people are suffering terribly. The pressure inside France is immense, and the most urgent matter now is to send those occupation forces away.”
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]
Comments
Post a Comment