Behind the scenes, insider dealings continued, and at last the casualty report from the Continental War was released. Without a doubt, both sides suffered tremendous losses, and the war’s brutality ranks among the most severe in history. According to statistics from the Austrian government, this war directly caused a decline of 12 million in Europe’s population. Four million left as emigrants, while the rest perished in the war. Statistics: On the side of the anti-French coalition, 2.377 million soldiers were killed, along with 1.92 million civilians. Specific figures are as follows: Austria: 742,000 soldiers killed, 28,000 civilians killed (including colonial battles) German Federation: 582,000 soldiers killed, 587,000 civilians killed Belgium: 273,000 soldiers killed, 556,000 civilians killed Spain: 21,000 soldiers killed (civilian deaths negligible) Switzerland: 6,000 soldiers killed (civilian deaths negligible) Kingdom of Sardinia: 176,000 soldiers killed, 465,000 civilians killed (including guerrillas and local uprising forces)… France: 3.206 million soldiers killed, of which 1.368 million were from the colonial corps, 417,000 were Italian soldiers, and 1.421 million were from the homeland. Civilian deaths numbered 886,000, including those from the civil war. Staring at the cold rows of figures in his hand, Franz let out a heavy sigh. Aside from the slightly shorter duration, the war was no less brutal than World War I of the original timeline. The civilian casualties in particular far exceeded those of that war. Beyond the sheer expanse of the battlefields, the greater cause lay in the mass expulsions. Even though the Austrian government had immediately launched relief efforts, the death rate could not be brought down by much. The old, the weak, and the sick could not endure such ordeals. Countless people whose bodies were not strong enough fell along the way of fleeing, never even living long enough to receive aid. And the numbers he held in his hand reflected only the civilian deaths within Europe. If the colonies were added to the count, the final toll might well double. If the dead were already so numerous, then the injured needed no elaboration. Since injuries could be tallied multiple times and overlaps were impossible to avoid, accuracy was beyond reach. The Austrian government could not even be bothered to sort through it. After a long silence, Franz finally said with deep feeling, “From the way things stand now, France is finished. Unless some miracle occurs, they can forget about regaining their strength within the next thirty years.” From every angle, the plight of the French was far worse than that of the original timeline. In that war, though they too suffered enormous losses, France had been among the victors. They had enjoyed the spoils, and neither the homeland nor the colonies had been stripped away. Now things were entirely different. They had not only bled heavily but had staked and lost everything. What awaited them was a long and bitter age of repayment. Even if France wanted to emulate Germany’s rebirth from the ashes, it simply lacked the foundation for revival. The domestic economic collapse is one thing, but more crucially, they did not even have the population to sustain recovery. As the central actor in the continental war, France suffered massive population losses. Over two million were killed outright, and the number of wounded and disabled was estimated to be no less than that. Adding to this were the emigrants who left, making the total even larger. From experience, Franz could easily judge that France was facing a severe labor shortage, especially in male workers. Unless these problems were solved, France’s population would remain in negative growth for a long time to come. One only needed to look at the Russians to see the pattern. Once the largest country in Europe by birth rate, after several wars their birth rate plummeted and even entered negative growth at one point. The Russians were able to recover within just a few years because of their strong willingness to have children. The French people, however, were far less enthusiastic about raising families. If the economy failed to revive, the postwar French birth rate was likely to hit a historic low. After the First World War in the original timeline, France’s population growth was a telling reference. In twenty years, their population increased by only one million, and once immigration was excluded, the actual growth rate was negative. In the era of the second industrial revolution, nothing could be accomplished without sufficient labor. Austria was able to become the world’s leading economic power precisely because it had far more people than its competitors. If Austria had faced the same population bottleneck as France in the nineteenth century, no matter how hard Franz tried, he would never have been able to build a great empire. “France still has some foundations left. As long as the war ends, they can at least manage to hold on. Right now the worst off are Belgium and the newly independent Italian states. Their economies have completely collapsed in the war, nothing but wreckage. If not for our support, they would already be starving. Restoring their economies will be as difficult as fighting another continental war.” It was clear that Chancellor Karl was now deeply troubled. During wartime, having more allies was naturally an advantage. Charging forward together was far better than fighting alone. But once the war was over, the situation became completely different. After all, they had shared the same trenches, fought side by side, and bled together. If a smaller ally could not make it on their own and came seeking help, refusing to lend a hand would seem heartless. Lending a hand was not the problem, the real issue was that one helping hand was nowhere near enough. The scars left by the war were too great. Whether Belgium or the Italian states, all were now destitute. When would they ever achieve self-sufficiency? No one could give a clear answer. In any case, it was impossible to expect recovery within just a few years. As the greatest victor of the war, the world only saw Austria’s glory, but few realized how empty the Austrian government’s coffers had become. The war had ended, yet Austria’s debt was still climbing sharply. Domestic recovery required money, rebuilding the Rhineland required money, unifying the German states required money, and supporting their smaller allies required money as well. Were it not for Austria holding the title of “hegemon,” which raised investor confidence in its government to unprecedented levels, the Austrian authorities would already be on the verge of a financial crisis. Franz rubbed his forehead and said, “We cannot simply hand out money anymore. The war is over so they must learn to stand on their own. Once the Vienna Conference concludes, we will lay the facts before them. If they want funding, it must follow market rules. We can issue bonds for them, or on their behalf, but the interest must be set by the market.” In truth, Austrian aid had never been entirely free. Yet compared with the capital markets, the funds provided by the Austrian government had always represented the height of generosity. “Interest-free loans,” and without any strings attached… Nowhere else in the world could one find such a benevolent creditor. But such generosity had its limits. During the war, in order to weaken France, the Austrian government had been willing to act with “kindness.” Now that the war was over, that kindness had been exhausted. To be frank, if not for the excessive printing of banknotes in the past, and concerns about other nations’ ability to repay, Austria might well have continued granting interest-free loans without issue. After all, what Austria had lent out was only banknotes, not gold. Once other nations had accepted Austrian currency, their postwar reconstruction would inevitably depend on Austria. Through trade, most of that money would flow back again, fueling Austria’s own economic growth. The Austrian government did not truly lose out. The pity was that, during the war, the government had already set the printing presses running. Now, with Austrian currency circulating in excess, the market was showing signs of saturation. If things continued in this way, it would clearly be unsustainable. A single misstep could trigger inflation in an instant. To stabilize prices and maintain the value of the currency, the government was forced to think of ways to pull excess notes back from circulation, such as issuing bonds. Against this backdrop, Austria’s debts were naturally mounting day by day. Yet compared with the dominance of Austrian currency, that price was hardly worth mentioning. After all, there was still a rival, the British pound, and Austria had not yet reached the point where it could act without restraint. Minister of Economics Reinhardt reminded him, “Your Majesty, the latest intelligence is highly unusual. Because of the war, the outside world doubts the ability of Belgium and the Italian states to repay their debts. On top of this, the recent French default and the German Federation’s default have shaken the capital markets even further. The market is cautious, almost to the point of paralysis. Unless we provide them with credit guarantees, they will not be able to secure financing at all. The risks are enormous. Based on the data we have gathered, the likelihood of Belgium and the Italian states defaulting stands at ninety percent.” Even though Franz had been mentally prepared, knowing that this was a high-risk gamble, hearing “ninety percent chance of default” still gave him a jolt. Not even gamblers played odds like these. No wonder the capital markets would not touch it. If Austria offered guarantees, the risk of default was already as high as ninety percent. Were it left to ordinary financial institutions, the risk would be nothing short of certain. After a moment of hesitation, Franz decided to shoulder the risk regardless. They were allies, and the Austrian government could not simply watch them collapse. If these smaller states were left to ruin, then propping them up again later would be even harder. And who could guarantee that a new government would still pursue a pro-Austrian policy? If Britain managed to lure them away, Austria’s losses would be immeasurable.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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