The end of the Continental War not only meant that Austria had secured continental hegemony, but also that the sword hanging over its head no longer existed. One only needs to look at the Draft Treaty on the Handling of France to see that Austria had fed its allies well this time, while also creating plenty of hatred in the process. It is easy to imagine how poor Franco-Austrian relations will be from here on. But that is a minor issue, since the hostility will be shared among many countries. What has been swallowed cannot be spat out. At this stage, if France wishes to rise again, it must first ask whether its neighbors will even allow it. Times have changed. Before the war, France could look down on its neighbors, but after the war, the situation is completely different. Spain may be in decline, but its size alone makes it formidable. Now that it has recovered the fertile region of Roussillon, its strength will only grow. The recently restored Kingdom of Sardinia cannot be counted on just yet, but it has considerable potential for development. Moreover, in any anti-French cause, it will have the backing of the Italian states. Having suffered one unpleasant experience already, they certainly would not want a second. Belgium, gravely weakened, may no longer have much strength, but its hatred of France runs deep, making it a natural vanguard in any anti-French movement. Then there is mountainous Switzerland. Its national power may not be impressive, but everyone knows the reputation of Swiss mercenaries. They are no easy foe to deal with. For France to stage a comeback, whichever direction it attempts to break through, the task would be nearly impossible. Especially with Austria watching closely, even the slightest movement could spark yet another anti-French war. According to the analysis of Austria’s strategists, the combined strength of Spain, Switzerland, Belgium, and Sardinia after the war is already on par with France. As long as France cannot defeat them one by one, the blockade around it will remain unbreakable. With the threat on the Western Front gone, the European continent could now enjoy peace. So long as Austria refrains from stirring up trouble, no one else will be capable of doing so. As a pacifist, Franz resolved that in the years to come he would stir up less trouble and content himself with staying at home to till the fields. Of course, that was only for show. The truth was that Austria had eaten too much and now needed time to digest. War is a gold-devouring beast. Though Austria’s victory seemed almost effortless, in reality the Austrian government was buried under a mountain of debt. To sustain the war, Austria had not only emptied its treasury but had also borrowed eight hundred million guilders from the banks, and on top of that had launched three rounds of war bonds among the people, raising a total of seven hundred and sixty million guilders. If it were only a matter of adding a few billion in debt, Franz would not be so troubled. The Austrian government’s finances were sound enough, and such a burden could be carried. The problem lay elsewhere. With the union of Austria and Germany already under way, most regions required little from Austria, but the rebuilding of the Rhineland would demand a great deal of money. On this issue, there was no use expecting the German Federation to contribute. They too were drowning in debt. Not long ago they had even fallen into a public servants’ strike over unpaid wages, while that rubber-stamp emperor in Hanover had long since abandoned his duties. By prior agreement, once the Vienna Congress concluded, George I was to announce the dissolution of the Federation and renounce his throne. Since it no longer concerned him, he simply let matters fall apart. In the end it was Franz, unable to watch idly, who provided funds to keep the government functioning. The true losers were the creditors of the German Federation. With their debtor gone and no successor to shoulder the debt, their claims vanished into thin air. The governments of the German states below would never acknowledge the debt, and Franz had no intention of recognizing it either. No matter what court the case was brought before, no one could claim that the Holy Roman Empire was the legal successor of the German Federation. Debts might be denied, but territory had to be accepted. The Rhineland had been directly administered by the Federal government, belonging to no single state, and after the union it naturally fell under Austria’s direct rule. There was no escaping it. As a central territory, the costs of reconstruction would fall squarely upon the central government. At most, the states might contribute a little humanitarian aid, but in law they bore no responsibility. The resettlement of several million people returning home, from food and clothing to housing and employment, all had to be managed by the Austrian government. The thought alone was enough to make one’s scalp tingle. By comparison, the development of newly occupied territories hardly counted for much. Though costly as well, there were no deadlines. Once the locals were repatriated, the lands became a wilderness, and the Austrian government could choose to develop them whenever it pleased. Yet even beyond these expenses lay a deeper pit. The Austrian army had paid a heavy price in the war, and compensating the wounded and bereaved was itself a staggering burden. By now the Austrian government had already distributed four hundred and sixty million guilders in pensions, and that was far from the end. To surpass one billion was only a matter of time. Everything depended on how much the system of military land grants could offset. If too many soldiers chose to take cash instead, the Austrian treasury would be staring at the brink of bankruptcy. When all was tallied together, the ultimate cost to the Austrian government of this war could not possibly be less than fifty billion guilders. The direct economic losses alone reached seven billion, while the indirect damage had surpassed fifteen billion. Purely in financial terms, demanding tens of billions of guilders from France was no injustice at all. Yet reality was merciless. However high the reparations were set, a debtor could only pay out what lay within his purse. If not for the vast colonial gains, the removal of obstacles to German unification, and the firm establishment of Austria’s dominance over the continent, this war would have left the Austrian government stripped bare. In that sense, Franz could not help but thank the French for their deep reserves of wealth. Compared to the First World War of the other timeline, even Britain and France, though victors, had been left bankrupt. With that bitter example in mind, Franz finally understood why Britain and France had clung to appeasement before the Second World War. It was not that their politicians failed to recognize the danger, but rather that their countries could no longer afford to fight. “Peace is won on the battlefield.” That saying found its truest meaning here. No matter what others might think, Austria could no longer afford to fight. Fortunately the war had lasted only a single year. Had it dragged on for three or five, the very foundations of the empire would have been shaken. That thought led Franz to admire the Russian government. The Near East War, the Prusso-Russian War, the Anglo-Russian War—ever since his accession, the Russian Empire had scarcely known peace, fighting a major conflict nearly every decade. Despite so many wars, the Russian government had endured. Its grip on power had not been loosened, and its internal divisions were even fewer than in the other timeline. Of course, this easing of domestic tensions had come at a heavy cost. Russia’s population was twenty million fewer than its historical counterpart, and its industrial output fell far short of what it should have been. Only its territory and agriculture had outpaced the other timeline. National strength had declined, yet political stability had grown. It should have been a contradiction, even a joke, and yet it had happened. A closer look at history revealed that this was not the first time. After every dynastic change, mass deaths had followed, and with fewer people, social tensions eased. As long as the ruling class did not court disaster, prosperity often followed. The Russian Empire’s case was not so different. Having survived its most perilous wars, the Tsarist regime stood victorious, and it was now reaping the fruits of that victory. Seen in this light, the ceaseless wars of medieval Europe had not been waged only because the nobility was belligerent. It was not impossible that war had also been used as a tool to reduce population. … One wave had barely subsided when another quickly arose. While the Anti-French Coalition was still basking in the glory of victory, the British did not remain idle. Seizing the moment when France, defeated, had no strength to watch over its overseas territories, they boldly sent troops into French Indochina. No, perhaps it was too early to call it an invasion. The British produced a treaty of colonial transfer signed with the Bonaparte dynasty. If the contents were genuine, then it was nothing more than an ordinary colonial transaction. There was no doubt that after such a disastrous defeat on the continent, the French colonial governments overseas had no will to resist the British. Upon seeing the treaty of transfer, whether true or false, one by one these colonial administrations surrendered. Or rather, they carried out the formal handover of territory. Though the British took control of the colonies, the French forces stationed there were neither disarmed nor placed in prisoner camps. Yet Britain’s swift gains overseas brought little comfort to the British government. As the date of the Congress of Vienna drew nearer, the smile on Gladstone’s face grew thinner. No matter how much was seized abroad, it amounted only to scraps left over. These were spoils gathered in places where the Anti-French Coalition’s power did not reach, a windfall that carried no real weight. Such gains held no meaning for the current balance of power. Isolated Britain became even more isolated. Its former allies and subordinates were all gone. The overwhelming advantage of the Coalition meant that no matter how Britain tried to woo them, not a single European state stood by their side. Gladstone had once intended to stir trouble at the Congress of Vienna, but that ambition had withered. The international situation could not have been clearer. As long as the Anti-French Coalition remained united, Britain would have no voice on the continent. Foreign Secretary George said, “According to the report from our embassy in Vienna, the closed-door meeting of the Anti-French Coalition has concluded. The exact contents remain unknown for now, but they have already begun expelling the French. Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, Spain, Sardinia, and other countries have all taken action, driving out French citizens along the border regions. Our preliminary assessment suggests that the Anti-French Alliance has reached an agreement to partition France. These expulsions are most likely preparations for the coming annexations. Since the French army had previously carried out similar measures in the German territories, the coalition is now enacting its revenge, and we cannot justly condemn them on moral grounds.” In this era there was no talk of compassion. Blood for blood was the rule of the age. The war on the Continent was one of French aggression, and so the retaliation of the Anti-French Coalition was only natural. More importantly, the Coalition was overwhelmingly powerful. Almost every European country belonged to it, while a handful of neutral states had quietly taken sides as well. With the entire Continent united in its stance, Britain’s lofty position was gone. Direct opposition to the Coalition was out of the question, and the British government faltered. Upon receiving this grim news, Gladstone furrowed his brow even deeper and said, “Find out the treaty’s terms at all costs. Until then, do not be hasty in declaring our position. The Foreign Office must continue to engage with Russia and Spain. A too-powerful Austria runs counter to their interests. Encourage them to fight for their share of the spoils.” This was an open stratagem. Every European great power nursed a dream of continental hegemony, and Russia and Spain were no exceptions. Austria had already become the greatest stumbling block on their path to dominance, and if the chance arose, they would certainly not hesitate to kick it aside. George shook his head and replied, “Prime Minister, that is impossible. Spain has already declined, and now they are still busy counterattacking in the Philippines. At this moment they need Austria’s support, so it is simply impossible for them to turn hostile. The Russians are indeed ambitious, but their path westward has already been blocked. Without sufficient certainty, they will not turn against Austria.” A “potential” competitor is only “potential.” Spain is too weak and has no capital to contend for hegemony; the Russians do have strength, but the Russian government is not foolish. It is easy to seize spoils, the problem is whether they can digest them. Whether it is partitioning France’s homeland or fighting for overseas colonies, all requires the backing of a strong navy. This is precisely what the Russian Empire lacks. To fall out with allies over things they cannot obtain would only happen if their brains had been muddled. Gladstone slammed the table and angrily said, “Impossible or not, it must be done! The anti-French coalition is too powerful. We cannot confront them directly, we can only try to undermine them from within. If we cannot persuade Russia and Spain to oppose Austria, then we must find a way to join the alliance. In short, Britain must not be isolated in Europe.” If you cannot defeat them, then join them, this has long been Britain’s traditional skill. Back when France and Austria were allies, once Britain joined, the two countries soon grew estranged. If international relations scholars were to study this period of history, they would find a clear turning point in Franco-Austrian relations. Before the Triple Alliance was established, the two countries could be said to be in a honeymoon phase. After the alliance was formed, their conflicts intensified, ultimately leading to its collapse. From this perspective, Britain also played an inglorious role in this continental war, only misjudging the balance of power, which caused everything to blow up in their face later on.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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