France and Russia had secret dealings, and Britain and Austria were also in contact. Everyone was aware of it but pretended not to see. If they took it too seriously, they’d end up with no friends. By the late 19th century, international relations had become a tangled mess. France and Austria were opposed to each other on the issue of Central Europe, yet when it came to Central Asia, they were aligned. Although their motives differed, both countries shared the same goal and that was to provoke a war between Britain and Russia and weaken their respective rivals. On the flip side, Britain and Russia were no different. They were on the verge of conflict in Central Asia, yet their positions on Central Europe were nearly the same, to let France and Austria fight it out and make sure neither side became dominant. … London Although it was well known that France and Russia had long been flirting behind the scenes, the news that the French were issuing bonds for the Russians still triggered strong dissatisfaction in the British government. Prime Minister Gladstone frowned and asked, “At a time like this, issuing bonds for the Russians, what are the French trying to do?” The timing was too sensitive. Issuing bonds for the Russians a bit earlier or later wouldn’t have raised much concern, but doing it precisely when Britain and Russia had turned hostile made the provocation too obvious. Foreign Secretary George explained, “This is the French getting revenge. We promised to support their expansion into Central Europe, but when the French tried to pursue coal resources in both Germany and Italy, the government chose to remain neutral.” Was it really just “neutral”? The answer was no. If the British government hadn’t fanned the flames or covertly hindered the French, the anti-French sentiment in Europe wouldn’t have erupted so easily. Perhaps from the British perspective, not coming out openly against France already counted as strong support. However, secretly encouraging Germany and Italy while sending vague warnings to the French government, such underhanded tactics were simply habitual behavior and hardly noteworthy. With allies like this, it would be surprising if the French government didn’t react strongly. They were using each other from the start, and neither side ever truly saw the other as an ally. So it’s no surprise that they would secretly stab each other in the back. From the beginning, the British had set the French up. Supporting France’s “expansion of influence” did not mean supporting territorial expansion. These were two entirely different concepts. Maybe during negotiations, diplomats had been deliberately vague or made verbal promises to deceive. But nothing in writing ever supported France expanding its territory in Central Europe. The French Empire was already very powerful. If allowed to continue expanding and patching up its final weaknesses, another round of explosive growth in strength could occur. With only the English Channel separating them, letting France grow stronger would leave Britain sleepless. Prime Minister Gladstone rubbed his forehead. He had nothing to retort. From Britain’s standpoint, undermining the French was perfectly reasonable. The Anglo-French rivalry had lasted for centuries. A single alliance treaty could not dissolve that history. Curbing France’s growth had always been a top priority for the British government. While Russia and Austria were also enemies, the threat didn’t feel as direct due to distance. If not for the Russian government eyeing Central Asia and threatening India’s security, the two countries might never have clashed directly. After a moment’s hesitation, Gladstone gave some instructions, “Find a way to give the French something to do. We can’t let them sit idle, or they’ll cause us trouble. At the same time, they need to be tied up with Austria.” Meeting both goals meant turning France and Austria against each other. Sowing discord had always been a British specialty. Given the current state of Franco-Austrian relations, there wasn’t even a need to stir things further, just aggravating existing tensions would suffice. After weighing the situation, Foreign Secretary George nodded and replied, “No problem. The Foreign Office will find something for them soon enough. But doing this will completely push Germany and Italy into Austria’s camp. With the Habsburgs’ ability to draw allies, the French may suffer.” The entire conflict between France and Austria stemmed from the interests of Belgium and Germany. Once tensions escalated, those two nations at the center of the storm would not escape involvement. Due to the French government’s overreach, their international reputation had already taken another hit. As their neighbors, Belgium and Germany couldn’t help but feel alarmed. Under these circumstances, if Europe grew tense, even if Austria did nothing, the other powers would still push Austria to counteract the French. In a confrontation short of open war, France would suffer due to its relative isolation. If it came to actual war, George couldn’t predict the outcome. France had a strong reputation, while Austria had solid strength and potential allies. Gladstone sneered, “If we don’t let them suffer a bit, how will they realize how important we are? They just signed the alliance treaty, and already they’re stretching their hands toward Central Europe, without even choosing the right time. The French have had it too easy these past few years. It’s made them arrogant and overconfident.” Compared to the British government, Franz was far more concerned about the warming of Franco-Russian relations. It was due to geography. Austria was sandwiched between France and Russia. If those two grew closer, Austria would face enormous strategic danger. With painful historical lessons in mind, Franz chose to lie low and pretend nothing was happening for the moment. He didn’t cut off loans to Russia or retaliate against the Tsar’s double-dealing. He even suppressed voices within the government advocating a tougher stance. “The Russian issue will be set aside for now. No matter what the Russian government has done, for now, we act as if nothing happened. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs can appropriately express dissatisfaction, but all other matters will wait until after the Anglo-Russian war breaks out.” There would be settling of scores, but only after the fact. If Austria retaliated now and made trouble for Russia, how would the Russian government have the confidence to contest Afghanistan with Britain? If Russia lost the war, the consequences would be disastrous. They might even lose all the national momentum they had gathered in recent years. Though the Russian Empire appeared powerful, previous wars had left it severely weakened. Millions of young men lost and such damage couldn’t be undone overnight. Looking at Russia’s population growth rate over the past 30 years made it clear how devastating the wars had been. After the second Russo-Prussian War, Russia experienced years of population decline. Only recently had it stopped shrinking. In this context, if another 1 to 2 million men were lost in Central Asia and the war was lost, the Tsarist regime’s foundation could be shaken. Of course, if Russia won, none of this would matter. Victory could suppress all dissent, and taking Afghanistan would unify the Russian leadership around the conquest of India. The issue was that while conquering Afghanistan might be easy, holding it would not be. Unless they copied Austria’s method of relocating native populations, they would face endless guerrilla warfare and British pressure. Austria just needed to give Russia a little push at the right moment. It might be a little underhanded to sabotage an ally like this, but it was Russia that first got cozy with France. … Minister of Agriculture Holz reported, “Your Majesty, based on the Ministry’s data, both Britain and France have made progress in their grain self-sufficiency plans. Especially the French. After replacing colonial officials, agriculture in French Africa has rapidly developed. If nothing goes wrong, France’s staple grain shortfall this year will fall below 1.8 million tons. They may soon become self-sufficient. However, most of their African farms are still operating at a loss and depend on government subsidies.” This outcome didn’t surprise Franz. France’s food shortages mainly came from the Italian territories. The French mainland could feed itself. To reduce foreign currency outflows, France had established farms in Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia in recent years to cover its shortfall. Becoming self-sufficient was inevitable. As for the high operating costs, that was to be expected. Few regions in French Africa were suitable for agriculture. Many of those places already had owners, surely they couldn’t just drive all of them out, could they? It’s worth noting that many of the landowners there had long since become French colonizers. Aside from seizing some land from the indigenous people, most of the farms were developed directly by the French government. Many of these farms were not in the best natural conditions, just barely adequate. If the irrigation infrastructure were fully developed, the subsequent problems would not be too serious. But all of this takes time and cannot be resolved in the short term. In the meantime, these farms had to rely on the weather, so naturally, grain yields could not be very high. On top of that, bureaucratic management added a lot of extra costs, so running at a loss was actually the norm. Franz nodded and said, “The timing is just about right. Promoting potash fertilizer will take time anyway, so there is no need to keep hiding it.” At this point, promoting chemical fertilizers would certainly not hurt Austria the most. Due to falling international grain prices in recent years, Austria had been gradually reducing its staple crop planting area. Other than meeting domestic consumption needs, there was already very little export. Domestic food processing companies had even begun heavily importing Russian grain. In a sense, under the backdrop of declining global grain prices, the slight recovery in Russia’s economy was largely due to Austria’s grain production cuts. But those good days were about to come to an end. No matter how much production was cut, Austria’s agricultural scale remained substantial. Even if the potash fertilizers at present were not as effective as those in later times, a 5% increase in grain output would still produce enough food to feed six or seven million people. This increase in output would certainly need to be absorbed by the market. However, with Britain and France pursuing self-sufficiency, the international grain market was not expanding; in fact, it was gradually shrinking. As Austria’s grain output increased, it would naturally prioritize its own needs, making it much harder for Russian grain to find buyers. In reality, things might turn out even worse. The use of potash fertilizer could not remain a secret, and other European countries would quickly follow suit. As grain production capacity rose across the continent, the international grain market would shrink rapidly, and prices would continue to fall. In a sense, this was a move that would smash the pot for everyone. Austria could still try to increase its domestic grain consumption to weather the agricultural crisis, but the Russians would be out of luck. As soon as the Anglo-Russian war ends, an agricultural crisis happening immediately afterward meant the Russian government would have to tighten its belt for many years to come. Franz could swear to God that this mutually destructive tactic was not originally aimed at an ally. The original plan had been to wait until Britain and France completed their food self-sufficiency programs, then crash the market and drag everyone into an era of grain price competition. Unfortunately, plans could not keep up with changes. By the time it was implemented, it suddenly became clear that the Russian Empire was actually the biggest victim. The reason was simple: Britain, France, and Austria were all industrial countries with domestic industrial chains for support, while only the Russian government remained heavily dependent on agriculture.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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