Having both become scapegoats, the Russo-Austrian Alliance might as well be renamed the Scapegoat Alliance. Still, even among scapegoats, there are differences. Austria jumped in willingly to take the blame. French Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Austria is spreading rumors and smearing the image of France. We demand economic compensation. Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: That’s not true. We are simply stating the facts so the people of Europe can understand the truth… The Russian government, on the other hand, was a different case. This was truly a case of sitting at home and having a pot fall from the sky. Austria becoming the scapegoat was mutually beneficial, a calculated political move between France and Austria. But the blame thrown by the British was of a completely different nature. Dispatching troops to attack British forces stationed in Afghanistan was basically an act of war. Though Russia did not fear a war with Britain, they certainly had no desire to take the blame for free. With no benefit to gain, the Russians naturally refused to accept the burden. St. Petersburg Foreign Minister Nikolay de Giers stated, “Your Majesty, the situation is now clear. After the British army occupied the Afghan region, they met fierce resistance from the local population and suffered heavy losses. The British government is accusing us of launching a surprise attack on their troops in Afghanistan simply to avoid taking responsibility for the heavy losses on the front line and to appease the people in their country.” What would a war between Britain and Russia mean? One glance at the map shows it would not really amount to much. Aside from a potential war in Central Asia, the two sides had little chance of clashing elsewhere. In theory, the Royal Navy could blockade the Russian Empire’s coastline, but in practice, this was unfeasible. Russia’s shipbuilding industry wasn’t well-developed, and domestic ocean shipping companies were extremely rare. Most of the overseas trade shipping business was handled by international shipping companies. This included British shipping companies, which took a considerable share of the pie. The Royal Navy can’t impose an embargo and then detain its own ships, right? To put it bluntly, Russia’s main ports were located on the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. Even if the Royal Navy blockaded the entrances, ships could still claim to be trading with the Nordic Federation or Austria. With no satellite surveillance in this age, who could really know the true origin and destination of these vessels? Arbitrarily seizing ships would only cause international disputes. Upon hearing this, Minister of War Ivanov spoke furiously, “Your Majesty, the British are continuously testing the empire’s bottom line. We cannot continue to tolerate this. We must respond with the strongest possible measures to show the world that the great Russian Empire is not to be trifled with!” This call for toughness was not without reason. In fact, under Marshal Ivanov’s leadership, the Russian military had been relatively restrained. Had the British government not exposed the weakness of its armed forces through this blame-shifting behavior, Ivanov would never have stepped forward to push for war now. Tsar Alexander III hesitated. However, a tsar who fears war is not a qualified tsar. Loving peace is just a matter of interest. Now that the British had exposed their weaknesses, not taking advantage of the opportunity would be completely illogical. But was Britain really that weak? Alexander III had his doubts. He knew very well that colonial troops in India did not represent the true strength of the British military. The forces that attacked Afghanistan were mostly Indian colonial troops, with fewer than one-fifth being reinforcements from Britain itself. Seeing the tsar’s hesitation, Ivanov continued to persuade him, “Your Majesty, the British have long been strong on the outside but weak on the inside. They’ve made no progress for years. The British army’s combat power is probably worse than it was during the First Near East War. The Anglo-Afghan War proves this, and even the earlier South African War is evidence. Back then, Britain deployed its main forces, yet they could not even defeat Austria’s hastily gathered militias. That alone speaks volumes about the British army’s strength. Now is the best time. The three khanates in Central Asia have already been crippled, and soon we will be on Afghanistan’s doorstep. Though the British have occupied the area, their foundation there is weak, and they are constantly harassed by guerrilla fighters. We can take advantage of the situation and seize Afghanistan, laying the groundwork for a southern push into India.” The law of the jungle defined this era. The Russian government’s initial goal had only been to take Central Asia. Since Afghanistan had fallen into British hands, the military no longer had expectations for it and planned to wait for another opportunity. However, plans never keep up with changes. When it became clear that the British forces in Afghanistan were weak and unable to handle even guerrilla resistance, Marshal Ivanov changed his mind immediately. “If Heaven grants and you do not take, you will be punished.” Missing an opportunity like this would be nothing short of a crime. As the leader of the military, turning away such an easy target, a “soft persimmon” handed to them, would mean they’d have to go looking for a “hard bone to chew” instead, right? Foreign Minister Nikolay de Giers added, “Not long ago, we had a secret discussion with the French. The French government does not oppose our entry into the Indian Ocean. If we have a fallout with Britain now, France will not intervene, and Austria will support us. All diplomatic obstacles have been cleared. The only issue left is the military. As long as the army is confident of victory, the southern strategy can be launched.” Hearing this, Alexander III was shocked, “The French sold out their ally that quickly?” Then he realized the French government might not want to abandon their ally, but they couldn’t help Britain right now anyway. Due to issues in Central Europe, France and Austria were already at odds. If France sent troops to help Britain now, they would be handing Austria an opportunity. “What about finances?” Traditionally, the Ministry of Finance would always object before any war broke out. This wasn’t because the Minister of Finance lacked vision, but because the Russian government was poor. If they didn’t raise concerns in advance, what if the war ran out of funds halfway through? No one wanted to take the blame, so the Minister of Finance often led the anti-war faction. If they raised the financial concern ahead of time, then should the war stall due to lack of funds, it wouldn’t be the ministry’s fault. So it was rare for the Ministry of Finance to not object, which was why Alexander III was so surprised. Finance Minister Alisher Gulov replied with a smile, “There are indeed some financial difficulties, but through the efforts of my colleagues, we have raised a sum for our war funds. Last month, we signed a loan agreement worth 50 million guilders with the Austrian National Bank. In addition, we reached a deal with French financial groups to issue 270 million francs in bonds, using industrial raw materials as collateral. As long as our total deployed troops do not exceed 500,000 and the war lasts less than a year, the finances can hold.” (In this context, Pound vs. Guilder and Franc.) In fact, it wasn’t just the military that wanted to seize India. The Ministry of Finance was equally eager. Thanks to the sale of spoils from the Third Near East War and profits from helping Austria resettle immigrants, the Russian government had offset nearly 30% of its debt. Combined with gradual repayments over the years, the government’s total debt had dropped by nearly 40%. Aside from the reduced debt pressure, Russia’s economy has also made some progress in recent years. Even if it was slow as a snail, it was still moving forward. Through domestic funds and foreign loans, they had gathered enough money to fund a 500,000-strong army for one year of war. Alexander III was surprised again, “The French are willing to issue bonds for us?” His shock was understandable. Due to trust issues, Russian government bonds could only be sold domestically. Even in allied Austria, they struggled to sell. No matter how close the relationship or how high the interest, once burned, financial institutions were reluctant to return. In contrast, France had looser financial regulations. Bonds were considered high-risk investments, and any default was borne by the buyer, not the issuer. Capitalists, after all, would do anything for enough profit. What shocked Alexander III was that the French government had not intervened. After all, Britain and France were allies, and helping Russia issue bonds was essentially stabbing an ally in the back. Finance Minister Alisher Gulov nodded, “Yes, the French government did not intervene! However, the interest and fees are very high, the bond amount is limited, and it must be done through private enterprise fundraising.” To the Russian government, the process didn’t matter. The result was what counted. As long as they got the money, it didn’t matter whether it came from corporate or state bonds.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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