As expected, after Austria took the blame, relations between France and Austria deteriorated rapidly, with their foreign ministries engaging in daily verbal clashes. For a while, Europe was shrouded in uncertainty. Britain and Russia were at odds over the Central Asian issue, and now France and Austria had become entangled over Central Europe. Rounded up, this basically meant the Anglo-French alliance and the Russo-Austrian alliance were pitted against each other. The continent was being divided into two camps. This was clearly a prelude to a European war. The most anxious parties were Belgium and Germany. Due to France’s aggressive stance, they had already been forced to take sides. While it seemed Austria stepped in to rescue them from a difficult situation, in reality it had pushed them into opposition against France. Originally, France, Belgium, and Germany had a chance to reach an agreement on coal exports, which could have prevented the conflict from escalating. Unfortunately, Austria’s interference ruined any chance of de-escalation. Because of their interests, French capitalists would not tolerate government concessions. Meanwhile, nationalism had already risen in Belgium and Germany, making it equally impossible for them to back down. The problem had entered a vicious cycle. No matter how it was handled, it could not satisfy all parties. The conflict was only temporarily suppressed, merely accumulating energy for an eventual eruption. … In Afghanistan, the British army, which had been sweeping through the region, finally ran into trouble. No one knew exactly when it started, but guerrilla fighters began emerging in Afghanistan, constantly attacking British supply lines. Especially in the past month, not only had the supply convoys been ambushed, but even the main forces had been attacked dozens of times. Each individual attack did not cause significant losses, but the frequency of attacks made things unbearable. Now, the British army no longer dared to move in small groups. Any unit smaller than a company was likely to be ambushed if it ventured out. The numbers were shocking. In just the past month, 112 British soldiers had been killed and 313 wounded by Afghan guerrilla attacks. These figures did not even include Indian troops. If all were counted, the British had lost the equivalent of a full regiment in just one month. This casualty figure rivaled those from battles against the Afghan government forces, and on a daily basis, was even slightly higher. Faced with the steadily rising death toll, Lieutenant General Patrick was close to a breakdown. He had no idea how to report this to the country. Kabul, British Headquarters A middle-aged officer with a bandaged arm furiously proposed, “Commander, the guerrillas are too arrogant. We must take the initiative to attack.” Unsurprisingly, this officer had been injured during a guerrilla assault. Typically, officers of his rank were well protected and rarely at risk. Unfortunately, luck had not been on Makau’s side. A homemade Afghan artillery shell had struck his temporary command post, and a piece of shrapnel had hit his arm. Compared to the other officers who were killed on the spot, he was undoubtedly lucky to be the only survivor. Lieutenant General Patrick nodded and said slowly, “Colonel Makau, calm down. Everyone understands the importance of eliminating the guerrillas. But we have launched dozens of offensives and failed to achieve the desired results. The enemy refuses to engage us in open battle. Every time a large-scale sweep begins, they retreat into the mountains. Once we withdraw, they return like a persistent rash. We turn around, and they disappear again. Unless we find a weakness in the guerrillas, no matter how many times we go on the offensive, it will all be in vain. According to news from Central Asia, our allies, the three Central Asian khanates, probably won’t last. By the end of the year, we’ll likely be neighbors with the Russians. Before that happens, we must eliminate these underground pests. If they link up with the Russians, it will be a massive headache.” In fact, Patrick hadn’t even said everything. The problem in Afghanistan was not just the guerrillas. The greater threat was the religious zealots. They were the main force behind the attacks, operating with the backing of local religious groups, and their favorite targets were isolated British soldiers. As newcomers, the British had yet to fully grasp the complexities of the situation, so most of the blame had been placed on the guerrillas. Of course, this wasn’t entirely wrong. After all, both groups were essentially part of the same Afghan resistance movement. Their nominal leader was the Emir, even though this unfortunate king was hiding deep in the mountains, afraid to show his face. Another officer proposed, “I think we should focus on capturing the Afghan king. Without the Emir as their figurehead, the resistance will fall apart.” Colonel Makau disagreed, “Give me a break, Hades. The Afghans hate us to the core. We have no foundation here. Who knows where the Emir’s rat hole is? Are we supposed to comb through every mountain and valley? Besides, the Afghan resistance is already fragmented. Whether or not they have a leader makes little difference. Just look at how often they attack us. There are many raids, but the number of fighters per attack is always small. Since the fall of the Afghan government forces, has anyone seen a resistance force with more than three thousand men? They’re all scattered bands of fighters. They can’t hold a proper front line and can only launch sneak attacks from the shadows.” That was the crux of the problem. While the resistance fighters were disorganized, they were slippery and hard to catch. Hades sneered, “So what? Even rats need food. We can seal off the mountains and starve them out. If push comes to shove, we can burn the forests. Just set everything on fire. If that doesn’t work, we can impose heavy taxes on the locals so they can’t support the guerrillas. We could even apply collective punishment. If anyone is found collaborating with the guerrillas, everyone within five miles gets executed. I don’t believe that after conquering Afghanistan, we still can’t wipe out these guerrillas.” It sounded good in theory, but implementation would be difficult. A full blockade required massive troop deployment. Afghanistan had vast mountainous terrain, which a few infantry divisions couldn’t possibly seal off. Burning forests seemed simple, but not every mountain burns easily, and large amounts of fuel would be needed. Heavy taxes were even more impractical. A local government would need to be established first. If British soldiers tried collecting taxes themselves, the locals would likely all join the guerrillas. The only method with real deterrent power was collective punishment, but even that would be difficult to enforce and might backfire, driving more people into the resistance. Seeing no objections, and after weighing the pros and cons, Lieutenant General Patrick slowly said, “If no one has a better idea, then let’s give it a try. I’ll request reinforcements from home, but we all need to stick to the same story. Guerrillas alone won’t get the British government’s attention.” Shifting blame was a skill that bureaucrats mastered without being taught. If Afghan guerrillas weren’t enough to spark concern, the blame would have to fall on the Russians. After a bit of exaggeration and embellishment, what had originally been guerrilla attacks against British troops were now attributed to the Russian army. … No one knew how the Russians felt about the blame suddenly placed on them, but the British government in London was furious. If the Russians had been acting covertly, that would be one thing. But such blatant attacks on British forces violated all the rules. Upon receiving the reports, Prime Minister Gladstone immediately roared, “The Russians are provoking Britain. We must retaliate.” He did not question the authenticity of the frontline reports. Was Prime Minister Gladstone a fool? Not at all. Feigning ignorance while knowing the truth was a basic political skill. Gladstone knew full well that the Russians couldn’t possibly have flown all the way to Afghanistan, but he still had to play along. Otherwise, the losses suffered by the British army couldn’t be explained to the public. Even though the military bore the primary responsibility, the Cabinet would not escape blame either. The proud British public could tolerate losing tens of thousands of men in wars with other major powers, but they could not accept losing over a thousand soldiers to native guerrillas. This burden had to be placed on the Russians to minimize the political fallout. It would also make Parliament more willing to approve funding and send reinforcements to Afghanistan. As for wrongfully blaming the Russians, that wasn’t a concern. Britain and Russia were destined to be enemies in Central Asia anyway. How much worse could relations really get?
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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