Since the defeat in the Russo-Prussian War, the University of Berlin had become the cradle of German nationalism, with a steady stream of radical ideas emerging. Due to the war loss, the Kingdom of Prussia had accumulated massive debt. To repay it, the Prussian government had been suffocating under financial pressure and had no resources left to develop the economy. The heavy burden on people’s livelihoods and growing dissatisfaction with society naturally accelerated the spread of radical thought. After joining the German Federation, Prussia received some economic aid from the central government, which brought slight improvement to its domestic economy. However, all of that was now over. With the signing of the coal export treaty with France, the era of the German Federation profiting from high-priced coal came to an end, and the central government’s fiscal revenue sharply declined. Without that stream of income, and with the member states unwilling to pay taxes to the central government, the Federation itself had fallen into a financial crisis and no longer had the ability to assist the Kingdom of Prussia. Against this backdrop, the most intense reactions came from the Kingdom of Prussia, second only to the coal-rich Rhineland region. From the start, the Prussian government had firmly opposed the negotiations with France, but its influence within the Federation was weak. That they had even been granted a seat in the imperial parliament was already the result of years of diplomatic effort. They had no real decision-making power. The weaker side could not overcome the stronger. The Prussian government could only passively accept the outcome. While the government accepted the reality, the public could no longer hold back. Just like in every other part of the German Federation, anti-French protests of varying scale erupted. At the University of Berlin, a group of young students was engaged in an intense discussion. It was clear from their words that they were planning a boycott against the French. … A young student stepped onto the podium and said, “Fellow classmates, the current protests and demonstrations are completely ineffective. The French don’t see them, and our weak government doesn’t dare to stand up to them. If we want to change this situation, we must take more active measures to let those damned French know we are not to be trifled with.” The anti-French demonstrations did have some effect. Domestic newspapers and magazines had all stopped covering entertainment news to support the patriotic movement organized by the students. Workers, the middle class, capitalists, and even government employees had joined the protest movement. In some of the smaller states, even monarchs had come out to show support by appearing in the protest crowds. The influence was undeniable, but unfortunately, the results were lacking. The French had not chosen to back down, and the German federal government didn’t dare tear up the treaty. “Fritz, what do you mean by more active measures? Are you talking about surrounding the French embassy? It’s useless. The decaying central government has already dispatched troops to seal off the embassy district. We can’t even get close! Petitioning the government is even more pointless. The Prussian government has always opposed compromising with the French. In fact, aside from Hanover, none of the member states support giving in to France.” As for the governments of the member states, of course they would oppose any decision that would earn them criticism. Apart from Hanover, which as the central government had no choice but to take responsibility, all the others stayed as far away from the matter as possible. The fact that the Imperial Parliament did not veto the treaty shows that compromise was the collective will of many member states. Hanover simply ended up taking the blame. Even the newly ascended Wilhelm II issued a strongly worded statement condemning both the French and the central government. In the structure of the German Federal Empire, the central government had no power over the princes of the member states, so a verbal lashing meant little. Prussia had previously cooperated with the central government only to gain economic assistance. That was also part of Prussia’s agreement with Hanover to form the bicameral empire. Now that the promised aid had failed to arrive, Wilhelm II choosing to merely issue some light criticism was already a show of restraint. Fritz shook his head and said, “Of course not. The central government is too weak. Hanover has colluded with Britain and France to sell out the interests of the empire. This is not something that petitions can resolve. To change the current situation, the best way is to make the French see our determination and force them to back down. Although we have called on the public to boycott French goods, that is still not enough. If we want the French to compromise, we need to do even more. I did a rough calculation. The total annual trade volume between the German Federal Empire and France is around 67 million guilders. Coal exports alone account for one quarter of that. If the French want to plunder our cheap coal, then we must ensure they can’t buy a single piece. British coal alone isn’t enough to meet France’s needs. As long as we can cut off all trade between our two countries, the French will have no choice but to give in.” This is a fact. Once the German Federation stops exporting coal to France, the French truly will not be able to find adequate alternatives in the short term. Currently, the main coal-producing countries in Europe are Britain, Germany, Russia, and Austria. Russian coal, once transported, is astronomically priced. Meanwhile, Austria exports very little coal. Although Britain exports a large amount of coal, the sudden increase in demand from the market cannot be met in just a day or two. An expanded France consumes a staggering amount of coal every day. If there is a supply shortage, France’s economy will immediately run into problems. But it would not be just the French economy that suffers. The German Federation would not come out unscathed either. Cutting off trade between the two countries would result in severe losses for the German Federation. Countless businesses would go bankrupt, and millions could potentially lose their jobs. Hearing this reckless plan, the more rational Hans exclaimed, “Fritz, your plan is insane. If we go through with this, the French will lose their minds!” To nationalist students, losses like these were considered minor issues. Most of them came from well-off families and had not yet faced the harsh realities of society. They did not understand how devastating economic losses could be and focused mainly on how the French would respond. Despite their loud slogans and bravado, their claim of not fearing the French was mostly talk. If the French really did attack, most would panic. Fritz sneered and said, “If we want to defend national sovereignty, how can we not take risks? Even if the French really do attack, so what? His Majesty Franz has already publicly promised to protect our country’s security. Everyone knows full well how trustworthy he is. If we unite the strength of all the German states, we do not fear the French. In fact, we might even be stronger than they are. The only ones afraid now are the corrupt central government officials, who fear that a war might lead to German unification and the loss of their own power.” Looking at the crowd, now stirred up with emotion, Hans began to doubt himself. Perhaps war was not as frightening as it seemed. Although the French were powerful, the German Federation and Austria were not weak. The gap in military effectiveness was something no one could truly judge until the fighting began. But when it came to fundamentals, Germany and Austria together looked very impressive. Their population was twice that of France. Their total economic output was 2.7 times that of France. Their heavy industry was also four times stronger. In fact, the steel production of the North German Federation alone was equal to that of France, and in terms of raw steel output, it even exceeded France’s. Setting aside all other factors and looking purely at the numbers, there was really no reason to be afraid. Even if the French army had overwhelming combat strength, it could be countered with sheer numbers. The Prusso-Russian War had already shown that if the numbers were large enough, even high-quality troops could be overwhelmed. From beginning to end, everyone simply assumed Franz’s position, tacitly believing he would fight for the unification of the German states. … Cutting off trade between the two countries was easier said than done. At the very least, the students at the University of Berlin did not yet have the ability to make it happen. A massive mobilization campaign began in Prussia and quickly spread throughout the German states. Once too many people got involved, secrecy became impossible. News of the student movement soon landed on the desks of the various state leaders. Upon receiving this news, Wilhelm II, who was at the heart of the storm, was completely bewildered. Trouble had arrived. This was not an easy choice. The young students dared to take risks, but that did not mean the rulers were willing to bet everything they had. Having personally experienced the defeat in the Prusso-Russian War, Wilhelm II no longer had the arrogance of his counterpart in the original timeline. The Kingdom of Prussia now was no longer the high-and-mighty Second Empire. If France could be pressured into compromise without a war, that would obviously be the best outcome. But what if things got out of control? If war broke out, as a member of the German Federation, the Kingdom of Prussia would not be able to stay out of it. If they lost, the already shaky Hohenzollern dynasty would collapse entirely. Even if they won, the victory would only benefit others. If not for the certainty that Austria was unprepared for war, Wilhelm II might have suspected the Habsburgs of plotting something. Of course, Wilhelm II had another option, which was to immediately stop the student mobilization and prevent a nationwide anti-French movement from erupting. However, doing so would damage his royal prestige and might even be seen by nationalists as a betrayal, weakening the foundations of his rule. George I found himself equally lost. As the central government of the German Federation, he was taking nearly all the political heat. At times, George I truly wanted to just charge forward recklessly. If he won, he would be emperor of the empire; if he lost, he’d still be king of his own state. Either way, it might be better than suffering all this humiliation.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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