Kabul has been filled with tension every day since the arrival of the Russian and British representatives. Just moments ago, the Russian delegate even delivered a public anti-British speech, drawing waves of applause from the citizens of Kabul. By contrast, the British delegation had kept a much lower profile. As the head of the delegation, Walters was well aware of how unwelcome they were. In just two short weeks, they had already suffered three terrorist attacks and been besieged twice. If the Afghan government had not dispatched troops to protect them out of concern for their safety, the British delegation might have been completely wiped out. Although they had come to stir up matters, Walters had no intention of throwing his life away. After witnessing the enthusiasm of the Afghan populace, he had kept mostly to himself. A young officer said indignantly, “Mr. Walters, the Russians are delivering anti-British speeches again. This is a provocation against Britain, and we must make them pay for it.” Placing a hand on the young officer’s shoulder, Walters said earnestly, “Henry, calm down. This is Afghanistan. Any rash action on our part will play right into the Russians’ schemes. Do not forget our mission here. Until the Afghan government clearly states its position, we should focus on winning them over. War is the last resort. If our only goal were to provoke a war, we could do that at any time. There is no need to go to all this trouble.” This was the honest truth. A man’s life is his own. On someone else’s turf, if you do not keep a low profile, you will die in vain. In fact, the British government had tried to win over Afghanistan many times already, but because of hatred and issues of trust, they had never succeeded. Of course, the colonizers had played a part in this as well. Repeated probes and tests had made the Afghan government highly wary of them. As the Russians shifted their strategic focus southward, Afghanistan’s strategic position had become even more important. This current effort to win them over was essentially a final ultimatum. What appeared to be a negotiation was, in reality, an attempt to pressure Afghanistan into choosing sides once again. The young officer Henry shook his head. “I hope your plan works, but I am not optimistic.
Anti-British sentiment among the Afghan populace is too strong. Even if the government is willing to compromise, a treaty on paper will not have much effect.” In this era where the weak were prey to the strong, hard power came first. Although the British delegation seemed to be at a disadvantage, in the actual negotiations they held the initiative. Ultimately, this was because Britain’s strength was formidable. British India was right next door to Afghanistan, whereas the Russians were separated by Persia and the Central Asian khanates. With confidence, Walters said, “Do not worry. The conditions we are offering this time are not excessive. The right to station troops is only to help them resist a Russian invasion. The Afghan government knows what choice it should make.” … In the royal palace, Lieutenant General Stolyetov had just completed the exchange of treaties with the Emir, ruler of Afghanistan. The treaty was not long, containing only 11 articles. However, with this single sheet of paper listing 11 provisions, Afghanistan was placed under the protection of the Russian Empire. The main contents were as follows: the Russian Empire would support the Emir’s rule, help the Afghan government defeat both internal and external enemies, mediate Afghanistan’s relations with third countries, and guarantee the security of Afghanistan’s territorial sovereignty. There were no excessive demands. All that was required was that, at critical moments, Afghanistan would stand on the side of the Russian Empire. Compared to the British demand for the right to station troops, the Russian protection treaty clearly gave the Emir greater peace of mind. The person responsible for witnessing this historic event was Redmond, the Austrian ambassador to Persia. For a small country like Afghanistan, which had no substantial dealings with Austria, the Austrian government did not consider it worth assigning a dedicated diplomatic envoy. Naturally, no ambassador was stationed there. When issues arose that needed to be handled, the nearest ambassador, in this case the one in Persia, took on the task. This was characteristic of the era. Compared to arbitrarily appointing a merchant as an envoy, this arrangement was already fairly formal. In a sense, Ambassador Redmond’s stance also influenced the Emir’s judgment. The tangled affairs between the Russian and Austrian alliance were known only to the upper echelons of both governments. The citizens of the two countries, let alone outsiders, had no idea. For a closed-off country like Afghanistan, Russia and Austria appeared to be the model of close allies. Their friendship, which had begun during the wars against France, had stood the test of time up to the present day. By clinging to Russia’s leg, Afghanistan was effectively also clinging to the leg of the Russo-Austrian alliance. Individually, they might not surpass Britain, but together they would certainly be no weaker. Ambassador Redmond spoke insincerely, “Congratulations to both of you. A new chapter in Central Asian history has begun. I believe that with the help of the Russian Empire, Afghanistan will soon become strong. To celebrate this great moment, the Austrian Empire is willing to sponsor, free of charge, ten thousand rifles for the Afghan government, along with a quantity of ammunition.” There was nothing surprising about this. Austrian arms had managed to defeat many competitors and become the mainstream of army equipment on the international arms market by relying on this strategy of initial trials. Typically, a batch of reasonably good retired rifles would first be donated. Once people had used them, the matching weapons and equipment would gradually be promoted. Even if the sales pitch failed, ammunition could still be sold. In recent years, this approach had gone even further and expanded into naval ships. As the arms race continued, similar donation practices would only keep increasing. Hearing this good news, the Emir said with delight, “Thank you for your country’s generosity. This is the best gift I have ever received.” This was a genuine statement. In the geographically isolated Afghanistan, obtaining weapons and equipment required many middlemen, and by the time they reached the local area, even the cheapest weapons had turned into outrageously expensive goods. The asymmetry of information meant that the assessment of the value of weapons and equipment was also different. For rifles produced in large-scale Austrian industrial factories, the average cost per rifle was less than one guilder, and the retail price on the market would not exceed three guilders. However, by the time these rifles reached Afghanistan, their prices had multiplied several times over, and anyone who wanted to buy them had to place an order in advance. Redmond smiled and said, “No need to be so polite. We are all friends here. Austria has always been generous toward friends.” Seeing that Lieutenant General Stolyetov’s expression had grown slightly strained, Ambassador Redmond did not continue with the topic. Afghanistan was under Russia’s wing, and Austria promoting arms sales here was clearly overstepping boundaries. However, in order to present a united front to the outside world and demonstrate that the Russo-Austrian alliance was unbreakable, Stolyetov’s displeasure only flashed across his face briefly. He deliberately pretended not to mind. Naturally, the three of them then enjoyed a pleasant conversation and even had dinner together before going their separate ways. … Late that night, upon returning to his residence, Redmond began to feel a headache coming on.
Provoking an Anglo-Afghan war was no simple task. The key to deciding this war did not lie with Afghanistan, but with the British government. No matter how much encouragement was given to the Emir, they would never take the initiative to provoke the British themselves. For an Anglo-Afghan war to break out, there was only one possible outcome: the British government would have to send troops and attack first. Redmond was self-aware enough to know that he did not have the ability to make decisions for the British government. Whether or not to send someone to eliminate the British mission was a question worth considering. It was not that he had any moral qualms about assassination. The key issue was that Austria did not have enough power in the region, and the Afghan government had already dispatched troops to protect the targets. Ordinary assassins could not get close at all. Taking action rashly, success aside, if any traces were left behind and someone caught hold of evidence, it would cause major trouble. The orders from home were very clear. A scapegoat had to be found before making a move. Actions that would backfire could not be taken. To provoke the British, Redmond had already done quite a few things. For example, he had encouraged the younger faction of the Russian delegation to give anti-British speeches. But the British had exercised restraint and kept a low profile. It was out of the question to encourage the Russians to assassinate the British delegates. No one was a fool. Anti-British speeches could be explained as stirring public opinion and contributing to the larger negotiation effort. Assassinating the British delegates, however, would be an outright act of war. Such a major act was something no one would dare to take responsibility for. A young man proposed, “Your Excellency, why not bribe the local religious groups? They are the ones who oppose the British the most. They have already sent people to attack the British delegates before, but…” Hearing news of the local anti-British factions, Ambassador Redmond immediately became alert and asked urgently, “But what?” The young man replied, “It is just that they oppose all Western powers, including us.” Redmond immediately felt relieved. Opposition to Western powers was not a real concern, since Austria had no intention of expanding into Afghanistan. In a sense, religious extremists were actually useful. Only these people would act without considering the consequences and would dare to do anything. After pausing for a moment, Redmond slowly said, “Send someone to make secret contact with them. It cannot be anyone from our side, and our identity must not be revealed. As long as they are willing to take action, they can name their price. We can offer both money and weapons. The money should not exceed fifty thousand guilders, and the weapons should not exceed five thousand quick-firing rifles. Agree to it all directly.” It was not that higher terms could not be offered. The main issue was that too high a price would arouse suspicion. However, Redmond had not yet realized that even this offer was already eye-catching enough.
The money might still be acceptable, but the key issue was the guns. There was no faction within Afghanistan that would be willing to hand over that much weaponry just to hire assassins. *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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