Perhaps to deliberately provoke Austria, the French did not keep their large-scale agricultural development plan a secret. Shortly after the Paris government made the decision, they publicly announced it to the world. This is understandable. At this moment, the Eighth Division of the rebel army led by Hutier and others had already expanded to eighty thousand men and was quickly approaching the one hundred thousand mark. Their combat capability aside, their destructive power had already been witnessed by the French. This ragtag force had done only two things along the way: rapidly expanding their troops and looting plantations. Hutier and his men fully embraced a strategy of bullying the weak and fearing the strong. They avoided any city where the French maintained a tight defense and specifically targeted the countryside and small towns with weaker forces. Even though most of the soldiers were armed with cold weapons, their overwhelming numerical advantage allowed them to sweep through with little resistance. In fact, in many cases they did not even need to fight. Just one look at the size of the rebel force would send the local garrisons fleeing in panic. It was not that resistance was never attempted, but the imbalance in troop numbers was too great. The French soldiers in small towns were simply too few, and the local Egyptians were unreliable. Concentrating forces to defend the major cities was the best strategy. Generally speaking, as long as the French garrison had more than a thousand troops, the Eighth Division would avoid direct conflict. There was no point in fighting to the death, since they were not trying to conquer the world. They just roamed freely, leaving the task of seizing territory to the rebel forces in the rear. With the Eighth Division darting around in all directions, the French forces in Egypt lost the opportunity to regroup and were forced to fight on their own. After all, there were very few capable French soldiers. Most of the army consisted of colonial troops who could defend cities but were only slightly stronger than the rebel forces when it came to open-field battles. With such a major disturbance unfolding, it was natural for the French government to be upset. Driven by the attitude of “if I’m suffering, you shouldn’t be doing well either,” the French openly revealed their plans. As a result, all agricultural stocks began to plummet. A group of so-called experts and scholars came out to talk down the agricultural sector, and some even claimed that a new wave of agricultural crisis was just around the corner. Well, this time they happened to be right. For quite a long period in the future, companies involved in agricultural production would struggle. Describing the situation as going from bad to worse might be more accurate. Even without this move by the French, an agricultural crisis would still have eventually erupted. With continuous advancements in fertilizer technology, overproduction of grain was an inevitable trend. Even if grain-exporting countries like Austria didn’t promote industrial fertilizer use, the grain-importing nations certainly would. Although the yield increase wouldn’t be as dramatic as in later eras, where fertilizer use could multiply production several times, an increase of a few dozen percent was still very possible. Grain production could increase significantly, but the market demand for grain couldn’t possibly surge at the same rate in a single year. Phosphate fertilizer had already been invented and was being used on a large scale. Potash fertilizer had been developed in the Royal Academy’s laboratories, but it hadn’t been promoted yet to avoid disrupting grain price stability. As for future fertilizers like ammonium-based or compound fertilizers, those were still nowhere in sight. Human demand is the driving force of technological advancement, and right now, Austria simply lacks that push. Franz wasn’t particularly enthusiastic about aggressively advancing fertilizer technologies to boost grain production, because Austria’s goal was to earn higher profits from agricultural exports. For many green food advocates of the modern age, this might be considered the golden era. Truly organic produce, free of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, could be found everywhere. Affected by France’s large-scale agricultural development plan, grain-exporting countries around the world experienced varying degrees of panic. … In Saint Petersburg, as the world’s largest exporter of raw grain, the Russian government was undoubtedly the most troubled. Alexander III had personally experienced the agricultural crisis. It was during the last crisis that the Russian government, in a state of panic, foolishly signed the infamous grain-for-loans agreement with the British. This was one of the few black marks on Alexander II’s record. Duped by the British, Russia ended up joining the pound-gold system. Even though they eventually defaulted on the debt to the British, the Russian Empire still suffered a loss of tens of millions of rubles overall, with political damage that was even harder to quantify. Having learned from that experience, Alexander III became fully aware of agriculture’s importance to Russia, and paid close attention to any changes in the international grain market. “What do you all think of the large-scale agricultural development plan the French just announced?” he asked. Minister of Agriculture Bolshak replied bitterly, “It’s absolutely disastrous. Right now, the countries and regions in Europe that heavily rely on imported grain are mainly Britain, Northern Germany, and Italy. Other grain-importing nations like Switzerland, Belgium, Spain, and Portugal also rely on imports, but their demand is very limited. All of them combined make up less than ten percent. If France’s plan for grain self-sufficiency succeeds, the international grain export market will shrink by at least one-fifth. Without that portion of the market, a new round of grain overproduction is bound to erupt in Europe. As the continent’s largest exporter of raw grain, we would inevitably suffer heavy losses if that happens, potentially triggering a new wave of bankruptcies among our farmers.” Alexander III frowned. Everyone understood the situation. What he wanted were solutions, not complaints. “Is there any way to avoid the worst-case scenario?” Alexander III asked hopefully. Unfortunately, spotting the problem was easy. Solving it was the hard part. This was a trend driven by larger forces, not something that could be reversed by individual willpower. Bolshak shook his head and said, “The contraction of the international market isn’t something the Ministry of Agriculture can influence. If possible, it would be best to use diplomatic means to get the French to abandon their large-scale agricultural development plan.” The Ministry of Agriculture was passing the buck as they had no way to deal with the agricultural crisis and could only pin its hopes on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “That’s impossible! The French have already withdrawn from the free trade system. Even if international grain prices crash completely, they can use tariff barriers to shield their domestic market from the impact. By achieving grain self-sufficiency, the French government could save a large amount of foreign exchange every year and even reverse its current trade deficit. I honestly can’t think of a reason why they would give that up. Rather than hoping the French lose their minds and abandon the plan, we should start thinking now about how to reduce our own grain production capacity or expand market demand.” Faced with the responsibility pushed onto him, Foreign Minister Oscar Jimenez fired back without hesitation. France’s colonial agricultural development plan not only targeted its rivals on the European continent, Russia and Austria, but also promised substantial economic gains. The French government had every reason to go through with it. It wasn’t just about pressure from Russia. Even if all the European countries applied pressure together, the French still would not back down. Agriculture Minister Bolshak firmly rejected the idea and stated, “We have a domestic agricultural population of fifty to sixty million people. Getting that many people to reduce production capacity is simply impossible. As for expanding the market, that is a joke. Do you think our domestic grain demand hasn’t already increased? But even as the market has expanded, our grain production capacity has also increased at the same time. In fact, it is growing even faster. And this is under the condition that our agricultural production technology is still outdated. If we adopted the latest techniques, our domestic grain capacity could increase by another third. The only reason we haven’t promoted new technology already is because there would be no market to absorb the surplus grain.” Harsh as the words were, Alexander III knew they were true. Cutting capacity or expanding the market simply was not realistic. “If the French plan succeeds, Austria will also suffer major losses. What is the Austrian government planning to do?” Alexander III asked with interest. There was no shame in learning from others if you could not solve something yourself. The worst-case scenario would be that even they did not have a solution either. After a brief moment of hesitation, Bolshak replied, “Your Majesty, Austria’s situation is different from ours.” Although both countries are major grain exporters, Austria mainly exports processed grain products and by-products, which gives them a stronger ability to withstand risks. As early as 1884, Austria’s exports of agricultural by-products and grain-related industrial products already accounted for 47.9 percent of its total agricultural exports. That percentage has continued to grow. A sharp drop in grain prices does not greatly affect products like canned goods, biscuits, snacks, or industrial chemical products. In fact, since production costs decrease, profits may even increase. The only part directly impacted would be the sale of finished grain products, such as flour or potato starch. When grain prices fall and affect the retail market, there’s still a buffer period where processing companies can lower the purchase price of raw grain, passing the risk on to others...” Seeing the Tsar’s face grow darker and darker, Bolshak’s voice gradually faded, until he finally fell silent. Alexander III’s displeasure was understandable. He had assumed that Austria would also suffer alongside them, only to realize they had already prepared an escape plan. Once Austrian companies lowered their purchase prices, most of the losses would land on the Russian Empire, and they would have no choice but to accept it. After all, during an agricultural crisis, just being able to sell anything at all would already count as good luck. If not, the grain would just pile up in warehouses, waiting to rot. Sensing the tension in the room, Minister of Finance Alisher Gulov deliberately changed the subject: “No matter how much they shift the losses, Austrian agriculture will still be impacted, it’s just a matter of to what degree. Given the scale of Austria’s agriculture, even a one-percent drop would be enough to make the Austrian government feel the pain. If an agricultural crisis breaks out, no matter how well-developed their industrial chain is, they’ll still suffer significant losses. The Austrian government will not sit by and do nothing. The fact that we haven’t seen any movement yet likely means they’ve been caught off guard by the French initiative and don’t yet know how to respond.” Upon hearing this explanation, Alexander III’s expression eased slightly. Misery loves company, and being the only one to suffer would’ve been unbearable. “Have the Ministry of Foreign Affairs closely monitor Austria’s actions. Report to me immediately if there are any developments.” ... Alexander III didn’t have to wait long. On June 11, 1885, Austria extended invitations to Russia, Denmark, Argentina, the Confederate States of America, Brazil, and other agricultural export nations to attend the Third Agricultural Summit, to be held in Vienna the following March. This news made many people breathe a sigh of relief. Any movement was better than none at all. The French large-scale agricultural development strategy was, for now, merely a plan. More precisely, an intention, without even a concrete blueprint yet. Actual implementation would take far more than a day or two. For instance, just the site selection alone couldn’t be resolved in one or two months. Once the agricultural experts finalize the site selection and complete the preliminary design and planning, there likely won’t be enough time left to level the land before the year ends. There was still plenty of time, so there was no need to panic. It would be years before this truly became a threat. *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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