Ever since receiving news that the French government intended to launch a “Colonial Agricultural Development Plan,” the Austrian government had been on edge. To this day, agriculture remained Austria’s most important pillar industry, employing the largest portion of its population. The global grain market had limited capacity. If Austria hadn’t convened the International Agricultural Summit and taken the lead in forming the International Agricultural Export Alliance, where major grain-producing countries coordinated export volumes and jointly set grain prices to avoid vicious competition, none of them would be enjoying their current prosperity. However, all of this was built on the premise of a basic balance between supply and demand. Any single country increasing its grain production capacity could trigger market turbulence. Franz asked, “How much suitable agricultural land do the French have in their colonies?” Minister of Colonies Stephen replied, “According to data gathered by the Ministry of Colonies, in French Africa alone there are over a million square kilometers of land available for development, with about 500,000 square kilometers of fertile soil suitable for agriculture. The main areas are: 210,000 square kilometers in French Algeria, 120,000 in French Morocco, 40,000 in French Tunisia, and 60,000 in French Egypt…” The natural environment and territorial boundaries of this era were different from those of later times, so discrepancies in arable land area were to be expected. For instance, Tunisia was divided between the British and French; Morocco was under the influence of Britain, France, and Spain; and French Egypt even included half of Sudan. Upon hearing this, everyone’s expressions grew even more serious. With such vast territories, even if only a third or even a fifth of these regions were developed, France could still achieve self-sufficiency. The Desert Empire wasn’t entirely desert. Just within French Africa alone, there was already so much fertile land. If one were to include France’s other overseas colonies, the total could likely double. In Franz’s eyes, the Indochina Peninsula was also well-suited for agricultural development. Although it was farther away, the French had tariff barriers in place. With so much land, even developing just a portion of it could deal a devastating blow to the international grain market. The French wouldn’t even need to compete for international markets. Simply achieving self-sufficiency at home would be enough to cause the collapse of global grain prices. The Austrian government understood this, but there was nothing they could do. The French were developing their own land, and Austria had no grounds to interfere. After a moment of thought, Franz spoke slowly: “It’s only a matter of time. No great power is willing to remain strategically dependent on others. The French are no exception. Even if investing in colonial farms isn’t profitable, as long as they can achieve food self-sufficiency and reduce foreign exchange outflows, it’s economically worthwhile. Right now, the only thing that can stop the French is the French themselves. Agricultural investments do not yield returns in a short period. Land reclamation, irrigation works, road construction… All of these require massive upfront investment. No one wants to take on a losing venture. Capitalists certainly won’t be eager to invest, so the colonial agricultural development plan will have to be funded by the French government. Given the current situation, the French government is far from wealthy. It cannot easily come up with money for agricultural development, so their investment in agriculture will remain limited in the short term. At least for the next 35 years, we don’t have to worry about a collapse in the international grain market. That amount of time is enough to accomplish many things.” Land reclamation is not something that can be done just by talking about it. Perhaps opening up a patch of farmland seems simple at first. Just burn away the trees and weeds, level the soil, and it’s ready. But aside from a few areas with favorable natural conditions and sufficient water sources, most regions require the construction of irrigation systems. Even when the crops are successfully grown, that is not the end of the process. If they cannot be transported and sold, then even piles of grain have no actual value. Taking all factors into account, seeing results in three to five years would already be considered optimistic. Most likely, only the coastal regions will show some progress. As for the inland areas, it might take eight to ten years, and even then, full development is not guaranteed. Having a buffer period did not bring much comfort. The crisis would still come, and it was only a matter of when. Foreign Minister Wessenberg suggested, “This is no longer an issue for us alone. Perhaps leaking the information would be more effective. If we can bring all the member states of the Agricultural Export Alliance together to put pressure on the French, we might achieve some unexpected results.” There was no doubt that Austria and Russia would take the lead in applying pressure. The other alliance members would likely play a supporting role and offer vocal support. If France could be forced to back down, that would be ideal for everyone. However, the chances were slim. If the French were so quick to compromise, they would not be able to maintain their standing on the European continent. Chancellor Karl shook his head and said, “There is no need. This kind of thing cannot be kept secret. As soon as the French launch their colonial agricultural development plan, everyone will know. If international grain prices were to collapse immediately, then yes, we would indeed be the biggest victims. But do we not have a few years of buffer time? Although domestic grain production is still increasing, the rate of growth is less than 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, the rate of increase in domestic grain consumption has reached as high as 4.7 percent. If it were not for the launch of the Near East Development Plan, and the continued growth of our future grain output, then within ten years, our production would only be enough to meet domestic needs. Currently, most of the processed grain we export is made from raw grain imported from Russia. If we face another round of grain overproduction, we can simply lower the purchase price of raw grain to pass on the losses. A strong Russian Empire is not in our interest. This is a perfect opportunity to use the French to disrupt Russia’s development. If possible, it would be best to drag the British into it as well. If both Britain and France implement food self-sufficiency plans, the global grain import market could shrink by half. This would give everyone a clear experience of how powerful an agricultural crisis can be.” The rapid increase in grain consumption was caused by multiple factors. The most direct reason was population growth, which naturally raised food demand. Another reason was the steadily rising standard of living. As people’s lifestyles improved, so did their consumption levels. The most typical example was the rapid increase in meat consumption. As a result, the amount of grain used for animal feed also grew rapidly, with an annual growth rate of over 5 percent. Lastly, there has also been an increase in industrial use of grain. Various sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, alcohol production, and starch processing are all showing a continuous rise in demand for grain. A surge in demand does not automatically mean that production capacity can grow just as quickly. In fact, since the agricultural crisis broke out, the Austrian government has been actively encouraging the cultivation of cash crops. It is not that Franz does not understand the importance of grain, but rather that Austria truly does not lack grain. If production keeps increasing, it will only lead to low grain prices hurting farmers, or in some cases, grain rotting in the fields due to oversupply. If the Agricultural Export Alliance had not been established, the agricultural crisis would likely still be ongoing, with everyone dumping milk into the rivers together. Of course, winning over the Russians was also part of the reason. More than 90% of the grain exported by the Russian Empire each year flows into Austria. Nearly half of that grain is processed and then sold back to Russia. The continuation of the Austro-Russian alliance and the friendly relations between their peoples are essentially rooted in shared interests. Generally speaking, alliances based on mutual benefit tend to be the most stable. However, the relationship between Austria and Russia is an exception. If one day Russia completes its industrial revolution and develops its domestic processing industries, this grain-based chain of interest will be broken. But that is a concern for the future. In the short term, there is no need to worry. Given the underdeveloped infrastructure, the nobles under the Russian government still preferred to be landowners and mine bosses, with guaranteed profits regardless of drought or flood. They had little interest in high-risk industries. Franz understood that these were only surface-level reasons. Ten years from now, the Near East Development Plan would be close to completion, and Austria would have firmly established its strength in a meaningful way. By that time, the process of German unification would also need to be brought onto the agenda. The Austrian government would not take the initiative to stir up trouble and draw hostility. Austria still did not have the strength to take on the whole of Europe alone, so it was very necessary to sow discord among the European powers. Although France’s colonial development plan did harm Austria’s interests, it was still an acceptable loss when compared to the broader national strategy. By guiding the situation and encouraging Britain to get involved, it would appear that Britain and France had achieved food self-sufficiency and were no longer subject to strategic vulnerabilities. In reality, this also put them in direct opposition to Russia. Touching Russia’s vital interests and affecting tens of millions of people would make it impossible for the Russian government to align itself with Britain and France, even if it wanted to. The Russian public would never agree to it. The chances of losing in a one-against-three situation were too high. But in a one-against-two, two-against-two, or even one-on-one scenario, the odds of victory would be much better. As a mature monarch, Franz still believed that if war could be avoided, then it was best not to go to war at all. “The Chancellor is right. If the French want to develop their colonies, we simply cannot stop them, and there is no need to try. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should put on a show, make it clear to the outside world that we are deeply dissatisfied, and ideally make the British believe that the French have struck us at our soft spot. We should lure the British government into joining, artificially creating a severe agricultural crisis that would pave the way for our next strategic move.” An agricultural crisis is no small matter. If it truly happens, the grain-exporting countries would suffer significant losses, but even Britain and France, as participants, would definitely not come out unscathed. The French would be in a better position. With tariff barriers in place, the French government would not allow domestic grain prices to collapse. The British, on the other hand, would face real trouble. Free trade has always been a double-edged sword. While enjoying the benefits it brings, they must also bear the negative consequences. Given the British style of governance, if an agricultural crisis breaks out, all the early investments would go to waste, and Parliament would likely order the government to cut its losses. Losing money is one thing, but the real issue would be political instability. This would delay the British government’s decision-making, which would be extremely favorable for Austria’s upcoming plans. *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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