Influenced by France’s large-scale agricultural development plan, British experts and scholars also began promoting a “food self-sufficiency strategy,” suggesting that the government establish grain depots for Britain in its overseas colonies. Unlike the French, the British had far more options. With the advantage of the Royal Navy, Britain essentially had no real concern about food security. Whether it was the Confederate States of North America, or Argentina and Brazil in South America, can all serve as Britain’s granaries. Even newly developed regions like New Zealand, Australia, and Canada held the potential to become imperial granaries. If all else failed, squeezing a bit more out of India would still do the job. After all, the population of the British Isles was not that large. Domestic production could already supply about 70 percent of its food needs. Feeding the remaining few million people was not a problem for John Bull. Even with Britain’s high level of food security, that did not stop the experts and scholars from talking big. As long as the money was in place, there was nothing they could not come up with. Thanks to the power of the pound, experts quickly compiled a long list of justifications. Even the shameful Irish Potato Famine was dragged out as a talking point. Before the government had time to react, public panic had already set in. It is unclear which unscrupulous capitalists started spreading the rumor that Russia and Austria had suffered droughts and that the autumn grain harvest would be a complete failure. As absurd as these rumors were, people believed them. And not just one or two, because grain prices really did start to rise. As a lawyer, Bill had far more insight than the average person and wasn’t influenced by the rumors or rushing to stockpile grain. “Sir, recently there’s been a frenzy of rumors spreading that Eastern Europe is suffering from a drought, and that both Russia and Austria will have a complete failure of their autumn grain harvest. Food prices in London have already seen a slight increase. To reduce expenses, I suggest you stockpile some grain now. If your funds allow, you could even store more and sell it off after prices surge,” his butler advised. But Bill’s judgment wasn’t swayed. What kind of drought could possibly wipe out the entire grain yield of both Russia and Austria? It was only June. The crops had only just been planted. There was still a long time to go before the autumn harvest. Even if not a single drop of rain had fallen in the first half of the year, as long as there was enough rainfall in the coming months, most of the crops could still be salvaged. If there really had been total crop failure in both Russia and Austria, international grain prices would’ve already skyrocketed. A slight increase? If prices didn’t rise three to five times over, the capitalists wouldn’t be doing their job properly. Bill chuckled and said, “These are all just rumors. Only ignorant fools would believe them. If Russia and Austria really had a complete crop failure, they would’ve already stopped exporting grain. Without their grain, the international grain market would collapse. The most sensitive futures markets haven’t reacted at all so what is there to worry about?” That was a fact. The futures market truly was the most sensitive. Even the slightest sign of a drop in grain production would usually be enough for speculators to stir up a frenzy. “Yes, sir. I also believe it’s impossible for Russia and Austria to have a total crop failure, but it’s quite possible they are experiencing a drought. Just yesterday, the London Daily reprinted a drought response plan from Austria’s Ministry of Agriculture. If there wasn’t a drought, that kind of plan wouldn’t exist in the first place. Given the London Daily’s credibility, they probably wouldn’t lie about something like this. The reason the futures market hasn’t reacted might be because the speculators are deliberately hiding the news.” After hearing the butler’s explanation, Bill was partially convinced. After all, the futures market was heavily manipulated by big players and price rises and drops often weren’t driven by real market forces. After a moment of hesitation, Bill made a decision: “Alright, go ahead and purchase a batch of grain. But don’t buy it from the retail shops. I’ll contact the wholesalers directly.” … Acting on the principle of “better safe than sorry,” many people made similar decisions. After all, grain is a basic necessity. Even if prices didn’t go up later, it could still be consumed slowly over time. It was certainly better than being unprepared and having to scramble for food once prices skyrocketed. Fueled by this wave of panic buying, grain prices in London kept rising steadily. The higher the prices climbed, the more people joined in the rush to stock up. At 10 Downing Street, the intensifying grain-buying frenzy was making Prime Minister Gladstone increasingly uneasy. After all, food is the foundation of the people, a universal truth throughout history and across the world. If just a rumor could push up grain prices in Britain, it was enough to show that the country’s food security might not be as solid as it appeared. Gladstone asked, “What do you all make of the recent public push for food self-sufficiency and the steady rise in domestic grain prices?” What did they make of it? They just sat and watched. Everyone present understood that it all boiled down to the French launching their large-scale agricultural development initiative, and a group of people trying to profit from it by manipulating public opinion and creating artificial panic. Minister of Agriculture Henry Chaplin said, “The government has already launched efforts to refute the rumors, but so far the results have been limited. Once the autumn harvest comes to market, domestic grain prices will stabilize. This recent fluctuation also indirectly proves that our food security is more vulnerable to external factors than we had imagined. Fortunately, it was only a rumor this time. If Russia and Austria had truly experienced a severe drought, the consequences would have been serious. From a security standpoint, the French plan for food self-sufficiency is definitely something worth emulating.” Whether or not it would turn a profit was another matter entirely. Once a self-sufficiency program was launched, the Ministry of Agriculture’s influence within the government would increase significantly. As one of the beneficiaries, Henry Chaplin had no reason to oppose it. Chancellor of the Exchequer Hugh Childers warned, “We are not the same as the French. What works in France may not work in Britain. France is no longer part of the free trade system. Their plan for food self-sufficiency can rely on tariff barriers for protection, so the investment is relatively secure. Given the current situation, it’s inevitable that international grain prices will fall, and the future market competition will be fierce. If we blindly follow suit, we would be directly competing with all the major grain-producing countries. It’s possible that we wouldn’t even be able to sell grain at the cost of production. From an economic perspective, this is a guaranteed loss. The current domestic market turmoil is only temporary. It will settle down soon enough. There are simply too many places Britain can import food from. With the Royal Navy at our disposal, there’s no need to worry about any kind of blockade.” While enjoying the benefits brought by the free trade system, Britain must also be bound by it. In normal times, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing. After all, Britain mainly imports industrial raw materials and food, which are essentials that don’t require tariff protection. But achieving food self-sufficiency is a different matter. That would mean directly competing with major grain-exporting countries or, in other words, engaging in a price war. It doesn’t take much thought to realize that growing food in the colonies would result in higher production costs than in other exporting nations. Selling at a loss just for the sake of appearances might earn Britain the label of being food self-sufficient, but in terms of real national strength, it wouldn’t contribute much to the growth of the British Empire. Foreign Secretary George countered, “Economically, we might lose money, but politically, it’s a different story. From France’s actions, it’s clear that they are gradually losing their ability to counterbalance Austria. Now, the balance of power on the continent is starting to shift. France’s agricultural development plan may appear to be just about securing its own food supply, but in reality, it’s a retaliatory move against Austria. If we follow suit, the international grain market would shrink by half. As a result, countries reliant on grain exports would suffer greatly. As the world’s largest agricultural exporter, Austria would bear the brunt of the impact. This would help restore balance between French and Austrian power.” “Suppress whoever becomes strong”—this has been the unchanging foreign policy of the British government for centuries, and now it’s Austria’s turn. The more factors there were to consider, the harder it became for Prime Minister Gladstone to make a decision. This wasn’t just about money, it also involved the shifting political landscape of Europe. After hesitating for a moment, Gladstone asked, “What about the Russians’ reaction? Has the Foreign Office taken that into account?” This wasn’t about suppressing just one power, but two major powers at once. If Russia and Austria banded together, they would become an unstoppable force on the continent. If pushed too far, they might redirect their crisis through war and march straight toward India. By then, things would truly spiral out of control. Foreign Secretary George shook his head. “The Russo-Austrian Alliance has lasted for three generations. For nearly a century, their interests are already deeply intertwined. We’ve put in great effort trying to split them, but even now, the two countries still stand side by side. If you want to know how skilled the Habsburgs are in diplomacy, just read a history book. Franz is one of the most capable monarchs of their lineage. Isolating Austria is simply unrealistic. The Russo-Austrian Alliance won’t fall apart anytime soon. Ever since Russia began expanding into Central Asia, they’ve been our enemy. Whether we offend them more at this point doesn’t really matter. In fact, if the international grain market shrinks, Russia and Austria might even fall out over competing interests. And even if the alliance becomes stronger, the situation won’t be much worse than it already is.” Threaten India? Would Russia and Austria stop being a threat to India just because no action was taken? As far as George was concerned, any powerful nation close to India was a potential risk. That’s just how strong the crisis awareness of maritime powers is. Better to deal with a weakened Russia and Austria than to face them at full strength. As long as Austria, the financial backer, ran out of money, then impoverished Russia wouldn’t be able to stir up much trouble either. And as for Austria, wasn’t France still keeping them in check? France’s economy might not be impressive, but no one doubted the combat strength of the French military. If it weren’t for them standing in the way, the British would have lost sleep long ago. Austria now was far more formidable than the German Empire of the same historical period. After hesitating for a while, the politically astute Gladstone decided to pass the buck. “The agricultural self-sufficiency plan involves investments of tens of millions of pounds. It would be too rash for just the few of us to make a decision. Have the Ministry of Agriculture prepare a proposal and submit it to Parliament for review. Let’s hear what the members of parliament have to say first.” *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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