Although the British government did not directly follow suit, the fact that they entered a state of heated parliamentary debate still scared a lot of people. Anyone with a bit of political insight could see clearly who this was targeting. If Austria were to lose both the British and French grain consumption markets, its total exports would plummet by one-sixth. Russia, whose economy is dominated by agriculture, would fare even worse. Even managing to keep half of its trade exports would be considered a blessing from God. Under such fierce market competition, Russia’s backward agricultural productivity, burdened by high production costs, would completely lose its competitiveness. To make matters worse, the Russian government didn’t even dare to promote new agricultural technologies, because increased production doesn’t necessarily mean increased profits. If the grain can’t be sold, then higher yields are meaningless. They didn’t even dare to pursue industrial upgrades, much like Austria during its last agricultural crisis. Due to domestic economic limitations, even Franz had to take a cautious approach in developing animal husbandry, fearing another wave of overproduction. Austria’s recent boom in livestock farming only started in the last 2–3 years, largely thanks to economic growth and increased consumer purchasing power. First comes market demand, then comes production. That sequence can’t be reversed, otherwise, it would lead to major issues. The Russian government was panicking, and the Austrian government was also anxious. However, while the Russians were genuinely panicked, the Austrian government was mostly putting on a show. Their diplomatic rhetoric was thunderous, and their actions appeared swift and fierce, but the actual results were minimal, giving the impression that they were floundering. For example, after the French announced their large-scale agricultural development plan, the Austrian government declared a suspension of agricultural processing enterprise licensing. Upon learning that the British Parliament had begun debating whether to follow suit, the Austrian government issued another agricultural transition notice, advising the public to reduce grain cultivation areas in response to the agricultural crisis. The direct side effect of this was a sharp drop in the stock prices of domestic agricultural companies. Even some food production enterprises that were not directly affected saw collateral damage. Of course, the economic crisis had only recently ended, so stock prices were already low, and there wasn’t much further to fall. To put it plainly, the French had merely announced a plan. Even the French government itself wasn’t clear on how it would be implemented. Capitalists were unwilling to invest, so the government had to step in for this unprofitable venture, which was not nearly as easy as it sounded. No one had any experience with how to execute such a strategy. If the government sent officials to manage it directly, administrative costs would skyrocket, and corruption would become a serious issue. If, in the end, they ended up producing overpriced grain that ordinary people couldn’t afford, then it would be a huge problem. On the surface, contracting it out to capitalists seemed simple, but the problem was that the integrity of capitalists was far from reassuring. They could easily set up a shell project to scam government subsidies, then import cheap foreign grain to fill the gap, leaving the French government to foot the bill. Regulation sounded easy enough, but the farms were to be built in the colonies. Although the French government had direct administrative control, the distance meant the central government’s influence was inevitably weak. Aside from administrative issues, the indigenous populations in the colonies were also a major headache. French Africa was not the same as Austrian Africa; most of the land already belonged to someone. Avoiding them wasn’t realistic either. They couldn’t just put all the farms in uninhabited deserts, right? Even by the 21st century, desert agriculture was still in the research stage. At this point in time, the French certainly couldn’t bend the rules of nature. Forcible eviction wasn’t an option either. One wrong move and the colonies could be engulfed in rebellion. After the Egyptian uprising, the French government had to proceed with caution. Indigenous rebels were manageable, but rebels backed by foreign powers were a different story. If there were a few more incidents like the Egyptian uprising, the French government wouldn’t have the money to pursue the grand farm plan. With so many problems to consider, one misstep could turn France’s grand farm plan into a laughingstock. As for the British, it was even more difficult. Anyone with some understanding of Parliament knew that if they could reach a consensus within a year or two, it would already be considered an exceptional achievement. For a grand strategy like this, it was entirely possible that the debate could drag on for three to five years. Especially since all the major grain-producing countries had already mobilized their resources to lobby the British Parliament. Many people were still hoping for a reversal. Some even believed that Britain and France were merely holding out for better terms, using the “food self-sufficiency plan” as a bargaining chip to pressure Russia and Austria into making concessions in international politics. This view had quite a few supporters, both inside Britain and France. Many believed it to be the case. At the Vienna Palace, with news of the Anglo-French “food self-sufficiency plan” spreading, Franz also began to feel the pressure. From the public to within the government, there was growing support for resolving the conflict through negotiations with Britain and France. After all, this was a confidential plan. Except for a few top officials, most people knew nothing about it. Reactions like this were almost inevitable. As a result, on August 16, 1885, the Austrian government officially contacted the British and French ambassadors to Austria for a round of in-depth communication. After the Austrian government intentionally hinted at a slight willingness to compromise, Britain and France, thinking they had found Austria’s weak spot, naturally made excessive demands. And that was the end of that. The negotiations failed to progress. While the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs kept up appearances with great effort, in actual talks they remained firm and unyielding. Franz asked in disbelief, “The Russians want to withdraw from the free trade system? Is the news confirmed?” France had already left the free trade system. The United States had also pulled out. If Russia left as well, it would likely signal the end of the entire system. Foreign Minister Wessenberg nodded and said, “To be precise, the Russians are only showing signs of withdrawing. It’s also possible that the Russian government is just putting up a front. Yesterday afternoon, Alexander III summoned the British ambassador to Russia for a discussion about Britain’s food self-sufficiency plan, which ended in an unpleasant standoff. This morning, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a formal note to Britain, warning the British government not to play with fire, and accusing the British food self-sufficiency plan of severely undermining the free trade system. If the British do not abandon the plan, the Russian Empire will impose trade sanctions on Britain.” Undermining the free trade system might be true to some extent, but it all depends on one’s perspective. Theoretically, as long as the British are not raising tariffs or using administrative means to suppress competitors, but instead pursuing food self-sufficiency through fair competition, then they are still aligned with the spirit of free trade. Of course, criticizing the British government for funding agriculture and interfering in the normal development of the market, thereby violating the principle of “freedom,” is also a reasonable argument. After all, Britain prides itself on “absolute freedom,” so it should be held accountable for its own claims. But on this issue, only the Russians really have room to speak. Austria has no leg to stand on. Franz has never commented on the matter, not because he hasn’t noticed it, but because Austria has gone even further. State-owned farms? Austria has plenty of those. Do people really think that during the last agricultural crisis, Austria’s grain production capacity declined rapidly just because the public voluntarily reduced the area planted with grain? That would be far too naive. Even with tens of millions of farmers, under the government’s call to reduce production, at most only one-tenth of them actually cut back a portion of their output. The rest simply continued with business as usual. It wasn’t a matter of obedience. The key issue was that if they didn’t grow grain, what else could they grow? Cash crops sound simple in theory, but in practice they require skill. You can’t just scatter seeds and expect a harvest. Grain prices might fall, but if it can’t be sold, at least it can be eaten or used to feed livestock. Cash crops, on the other hand, if misjudged and left unsold, would just rot in the fields. Government promotion mostly focused on vegetable cultivation near cities. Remote mountainous areas were entirely overlooked. This wasn’t about willingness. The issue was that Austria operated under a market economy, not a planned economy. The government had no way of knowing the exact market demand for each type of cash crop. Rather than handing over such decisions to bureaucrats and causing widespread resentment, Franz preferred to let the people continue growing grain. At worst, capacity adjustments could be handled by state-owned farms. If truly uncertain about what to grow, they could simply leave the land fallow for a few years. After thinking it over for a moment, Franz asked, “How likely are the British to compromise?” After all the effort put into coaxing Britain to the edge of the cliff, with just one final push needed to send them over, Franz didn’t want to see them pulled back at the last moment. One thing was certain. As long as Britain launched its food self-sufficiency plan, it would be entering a long-term cycle of losses, suffering even more than the French. Bound by the free trade system, Britain had to treat all imported grain equally and maintain the current near-zero tariffs. This meant Britain couldn’t just support a smaller ally to serve as its grain depot and push Austrian agricultural products out of the market. Establishing farms in the colonies might seem easy for the British, but in reality, the costs were far from low. First, there was the population issue. Places like Australia, New Zealand, and Canada were classic examples of vast land with sparse populations. Even with mechanized agriculture, a large labor force was still necessary. At the very least, before irrigation projects and road improvements were in place, labor demands would be high. If labor had to be recruited domestically, the cost alone would make the British government flinch. Once those costs were factored into grain production, the price would be astronomical. Without protective barriers, the more grain was grown, the more money would be lost. After a few years of this, the British public would likely realize there was no profit in grain cultivation. When the opposition party came to power, they would cut the losses and abandon the plan, leaving behind a trail of unfinished projects to showcase the incompetence of the previous administration. Of course, India had a large population and fertile land, which made it ideal for agriculture. The problem was that it had too many people. Developing agriculture there would already be a struggle just to feed the locals. Chances were, the grain would be eaten up before it could even be sent to Britain. Prioritizing domestic needs wasn’t impossible, but when people were starving, they were likely to rebel. The last time cotton was planted, it triggered a major uprising. Now, with Russia and Austria as new neighbors in the region, the British government absolutely couldn’t afford to stir up more trouble. After a moment of contemplation, Wessenberg slowly replied, “Fifty-fifty, I’d say. The Russian market may look big, but in reality, its purchasing power is extremely limited. And of that limited market, we occupy nearly seventy percent, leaving the British with just scraps. Even if they lose access to the Russian market, Britain’s total export trade would only drop by one or two percent at most. That kind of fluctuation is still within Britain’s capacity to endure. But the British government is not enthusiastic about the food self-sufficiency plan. Gladstone handed the decision to Parliament, and the Cabinet hasn’t even stated a position. That says it all.” This answer was essentially meaningless. A fifty-fifty chance wasn’t really analysis or judgment, it was more like gambling. It had to be admitted that the Russians’ methods, though crude, were quite effective. The Russian government had already managed to sway the British toward possibly giving up. Under normal circumstances, if Austria applied a bit more pressure, Parliament might just reject or indefinitely shelve the proposal, and the whole issue would blow over. Several plans flashed through Franz’s mind, but he rejected them all. “At this point, it’s no longer appropriate for us to act further. Now we just have to watch the French perform. Surely Napoleon IV won’t pass up this opportunity.” The moment he said it, Franz felt something was off. At some point, Austria had begun cooperating with its enemies more than with its allies. Whether this was a collapse of morality or a distortion of human nature was a question worth pondering. But one thing was certain, this was not the right way to operate. If things kept going this way, Franz would start to doubt whether he could even distinguish between friend and foe anymore. “There are no eternal enemies between nations, only eternal interests.” Franz’s actions now fully embodied that principle. *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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