“Have we figured out the Austrians’ real intentions?” Prime Minister Gladstone asked. After Prussia announced a debt extension, the British government immediately suspected Austria. Upon investigation, they quickly uncovered the role the Austrian government had played. There was no way to keep such matters secret. Without Austria stepping in to fan the flames, the Prussian government wouldn’t have had the courage to act. Foreign Secretary Granville George Leveson-Gower said, “On the surface, it appears that the Austrians aim to drive a wedge between us and Prussia, and in that, they have already succeeded. Our intelligence agents have discovered a recent surge in Austria’s railway transportation volume. A deeper investigation revealed that large quantities of strategic materials are being gathered at the ports. It seems Austria is preparing for war, but since their military has shown no unusual movements, their target is unlikely to be France.” After the outbreak of the revolution in Paris, the British government closely monitored Austria’s actions, wary that any misstep could disrupt Europe’s balance.
From a strategic standpoint, France and Austria had long been rivals for dominance over the continent. Now that France was in turmoil, Austria had every reason to take advantage of the situation. However, France was no pushover. Even amid internal strife, it was not to be trifled with. Without thorough preparations, Austria would never act recklessly. Glancing at a world map, Gladstone nodded thoughtfully and said, “Without military mobilization, Austria’s target this time must not be very strong. The Vienna System has just been established. Austria would not undermine it by contradicting itself. This war is likely to take place outside Europe. The Far East, South America, the Near East, or perhaps a struggle over African colonies—where do you think the Austrians plan to strike?” Colonial Secretary Primrose analyzed, “The chances of it being in the Far East are low. Austria's strength in that region is limited, and it is not their strategic focus. South America is also unlikely. The Panamanian independence movement is progressing smoothly. Unless Austria plans to swallow the Republic of Colombia in one go, there is no need for them to increase their involvement. The Near East and the struggle for African colonies are both possibilities. The Ottoman Empire has been a long-standing enemy of the Habsburg dynasty, and Franz has publicly stated multiple times that he wants to destroy it… Austria and France’s colonial interests are both concentrated on the African continent. The two nations have long been wary of each other’s strength, and geographic constraints have so far prevented large-scale conflict. However, the Austrian government does have the motive to take advantage of France’s crisis. I believe Austria is more likely to make a move on Egypt. Attacking the Ottoman Empire can be done at any time, but the opportunity to seize the Suez Canal may only come once. France has been aggressive in its foreign policy, making many enemies in colonial disputes. Now that civil war has broken out, many countries, including us, are looking to take advantage of the situation. The only reason war hasn’t erupted yet is the lack of a leading force. If Austria takes the initiative, a grand scramble for France’s colonial holdings will begin. If France loses its overseas colonies, then even if it manages to end its civil war, the balance of power will shift. With Austria gaining and France losing, it will be difficult for France to pose any real threat to Austria in the future.” The Austro-French joint administration of the Suez Canal was a temporary arrangement. It never meant that either side had given up on monopolizing it. Times have changed. Austria now has the strength to dominate the Suez Canal. If they take Egypt, their Austro-African colonial territories will be fully connected, leaving them with nothing to fear from potential rivals. Foreign Secretary George countered, “I hold the exact opposite view. Given the current international situation, the likelihood of Austria making a move on Egypt is extremely low.” He then picked up a pointer, walked over to the world map hanging on the wall, and gestured, “This is Austria. Just by looking at the map, you can see how poor its strategic position is. It is practically surrounded by powerful enemies. In recent years, the Austrian government has successfully crippled the Ottoman Empire through a combination of diplomatic maneuvering and military strikes. They also took advantage of the Russo-Prussian War to ruin Prussia and severely weaken Russia. Only now has the situation started to stabilize. In the short term, seizing Egypt and dealing a blow to the French Empire may seem beneficial, but doing so would damage Franco-Austrian relations. Once the French civil war ends, France will become Austria’s greatest enemy. History could repeat itself, with France and the Ottomans forming an anti-Habsburg alliance once again. Driven by their own interests, the Russians would likely join in as well. Under these circumstances, Austria would struggle to find allies. Even the German states that lean pro-Austria would likely turn toward the anti-Habsburg coalition instead.” George drew a circle on the map with his pointer and tapped it firmly. “Surrounded by enemies… If war breaks out, Austria will be forced to fight on multiple fronts. No matter how strong its economy and military are, it won’t be able to sustain such a burden. From a long-term perspective, maintaining friendly relations with France and taking the opportunity to destroy the Ottoman Empire, thereby securing a stable rear, is what Austria needs most.” Strategic realities dictated by geography cannot be deceived. The map was there for all to see with the truth obvious at a glance. For a country located in the heart of Europe, Austria’s resurgence was already a miracle. And behind this miracle was a series of masterful diplomatic maneuvers—maintaining friendly ties with multiple nations to create the conditions for its revival. Needless to say, now that Austria’s plan had been uncovered, it had to be disrupted. Otherwise, they would be failing to live up to their reputation as the ultimate “troublemaker” of Europe. … The British were still one step too slow. The success of the Paris revolution emboldened Austria, and the Austrian government had already decided to take swift action rather than wait for diplomatic efforts to bear fruit. Franz asked, “Have we found a justification for war?” At this point, the key factor restraining Austria from launching a war was no longer the international situation. With a single gunshot in Paris, the revolutionary wave in Europe had surged once more. No one dared to risk global condemnation by starting a war just to defend the Ottoman Empire. Nor was Austria’s strength in question. After suffering two defeats in the Near East Wars, the Ottoman Empire was already severely weakened. Now, everything was in place and only a “casus belli” was missing. And in the search for this justifiable pretext, Franz was practically tearing his hair out. Foreign Minister Wessenberg reported, “We have obtained evidence of the Ottoman government’s massacre of Armenians. Among the victims are 1,867 imperial citizens.” As he spoke, Wessenberg pulled a thick stack of photographs from an envelope, displaying images of Ottoman soldiers carrying out the killings. Had Franz not recognized some of the scenes after flipping through a few images, he might have believed them himself. The photographs were undoubtedly real. Given the state of photography technology at the time, fabricating such images was simply not feasible. There was just a slight issue with the timeline, the events may have happened a few years earlier than claimed. But the exact timing wasn’t important. As long as the content of the photographs was real, that was enough. After a brief moment of hesitation, Franz picked out the most striking image, the one showing a Gatling gun mowing down refugees and said, “Don’t release any images that have already been published in the newspapers.” Wessenberg, maintaining a calm expression, replied, “Rest assured, Your Majesty, none of these photos have been published before. If they seem familiar, it’s likely because the scenes resemble others, but they are in fact different.” Franz nodded. He trusted the expertise of professionals. The task of manufacturing a justification for war had been given to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs rather than the military precisely because of their expertise. Otherwise, the military might have come up with weak excuses like “missing soldiers” or “a sunken ship”—flimsy pretexts that wouldn’t hold up. Forget about convincing the international community, even Austria’s own people wouldn’t believe such nonsense. By contrast, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ claim that over a thousand imperial citizens had been massacred was far more compelling. The truth hardly mattered. The dead couldn’t argue. If the Austrian government declared them Austrian citizens, then they were Austrian citizens, adjusting their nationality was just a bureaucratic formality. Was the number too high? That didn’t matter either. The large figure was deliberate, meant to divert attention. By shifting public focus to the scale of the deaths, people would subconsciously accept the underlying claim that Austrians had indeed been killed in the Ottoman Empire. And if the numbers later proved inconvenient, they could always be adjusted after the war. The victims could be reclassified as “pending immigration applicants,” the death toll lowered, and blame pushed onto “irresponsible media” for reporting inaccuracies. Until the dust settled, the Austrian government would avoid committing to any official casualty figures. Let the outside world speculate however they wanted as it was of no consequence. … On April 20, 1882, while Europe was still immersed in the aftermath of the Paris Revolution, a shocking news report published by the Balkan Daily shattered the political landscape: “Ottoman Empire Massacres Austrian Citizens!” The bold red number “1867” caught the attention of countless onlookers. Soon, multiple newspapers followed up with their own reports, though the death toll varied widely. Some claimed the number had exceeded ten thousand, while others reported as few as two deaths, arguing that those individuals had merely been caught in the crossfire during the Ottoman Empire’s suppression of ethnic minorities. The exact number didn’t matter, what mattered was that the Austrians were furious. The gruesome photographs, drenched in bloodshed, struck a deep emotional chord with the public. People from all walks of life demanded government action to punish the Ottoman Empire. In response, on April 22, 1882, the Austrian government formally issued a diplomatic note to the Ottoman Empire, calling for negotiations regarding the massacre. The Ottoman government, knowing nothing about the alleged incident, was completely dumbfounded when it received Austria’s diplomatic communique. It took them a moment to process the situation before realizing that something was terribly wrong. Since Austria had fabricated the crisis to begin with, the negotiations were never meant to succeed. On April 24, 1882, Austria unilaterally declared the negotiations had failed. The official reason? Austria had demanded the right to send an investigative team into Ottoman territory to conduct an on-site investigation, a request the Ottoman government rejected. In reality, ethnic massacres had indeed taken place. Not long ago, several Armenian villages had been destroyed amid domestic ethnic conflicts. But that wasn’t the main reason for the Ottoman refusal. If they could prove that no Austrian citizens had been killed, these incidents would have been a minor issue. At worst, they would endure another wave of European condemnation, something they were already used to. The issue was that, along with sending an investigative team, Austria also demanded military protection and not just a small detachment, but a full infantry division. That was simply unacceptable. The Russo-Prussian War had already demonstrated the effectiveness of airship transport. If Austria were to deploy an entire infantry division deep into Ottoman territory, it would be nothing short of an invasion. Naturally, the real reason for the Ottoman rejection was completely ignored by the Austrian press. To the Austrian media, the Ottoman Empire was full of savages. Of course, the investigative team needed military protection! Too many troops? It was just one infantry division! If the Ottoman government had nothing to hide, then why would they be so afraid? Both sides were operating on entirely different wavelengths, leading them to completely different conclusions. After the negotiations collapsed, calls for retaliation in Austria surged. The pro-war faction gradually overpowered the anti-war voices, and the atmosphere of war grew stronger by the day.
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And here I thought we were getting 1,121 chapters all at once when reading the title. /j
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