In a way, the refugee crisis also accelerated the progress of the Russo-Prussian War. After replenishing his forces, Moltke hastily launched a counteroffensive. There was no other choice. If they didn’t fight now, they would have even less ability to do so later. Originally, they had hoped that the refugee crisis would slow down the Russian advance, but instead, the problem had followed them back. The Russians did not immediately launch an offensive, not only because they needed to rest their troops but also due to logistical constraints. Ivanov, a cautious commander, firmly refused to engage in battle until his supplies were fully in place. No matter how much the Prussian government tried to mobilize, their population set a hard limit. After losing most of its territory, the Kingdom of Prussia had only ten million people left, and every able-bodied man was already on the battlefield. In this regard, they were no match for the Russians. The longer the war dragged on, the more it would favor Russia. Of course, that was only from a military perspective. Economically, the Russian government was also struggling. If not for Ivanov’s firm insistence, the Russian army would have launched an attack long ago. Naturally, Moltke was unaware of these internal issues. But even if he had known, it wouldn’t have changed anything. They still had to fight. The government might be out of money, but that didn’t mean it was impossible to find more. In times of crisis, robbing Peter to pay Paul was always an option. … The Russian Empire had deep reserves. If they were willing to pay the price, they could still scrape together a few months’ worth of war funds. Meanwhile, Moltke’s efforts were not in vain. The Prussian army successively defeated the Russian Tenth Army, which was threatening Berlin, as well as the Third and Sixth Armies, which had been driving refugees forward. They also dealt a heavy blow to the Eighth and Ninth Armies stationed around Poznań. If one ignored the broader battlefield, it would be hard to believe that an army achieving such impressive victories was actually fighting for its survival. In just two months, Moltke inflicted over 500,000 casualties on the Russians. But as the price of victory, the Prussian army suffered nearly 300,000 casualties of its own. With relatively equal fighting strength between soldiers, achieving a 3:5 exchange ratio as the attacking side was tactically impeccable. However, tactical victories could not compensate for strategic failure. The Russians were not simply taking hits. Ivanov shifted the main battlefield to East Prussia, where the Russian advantage was even more pronounced. As for the Russian forces engaging Moltke, their sole task was to keep the Prussian main army pinned down. On March 18, 1880, after suffering nearly 300,000 casualties, the Battle of East Prussia ended in a Russian victory. And this was only the beginning. After losing the heavily fortified East Prussia, West Prussia also failed to stop the Russian advance, and the flames of war continued to spread into the heart of the Kingdom of Prussia. … At the Vienna Palace, Franz put down the war report and looked at the map of the Kingdom of Prussia. He knew that the Russo-Prussian War was coming to an end. Prussia had already been weakened significantly. The Rhineland had been sold to the German Federal Empire, Silesia to Austria, and Prussian Saxony had also been sold off. Now, Poznań has fallen into Russian hands. East Prussia was lost, most of West Prussia was gone, and Pomerania had become a battlefield. The foundations of the Junker aristocracy had suffered a devastating blow. Continuing the war no longer held any value for Austria. If it wasn’t stopped soon, the Russians would reach the Oder River which was something Franz had no intention of allowing. “What is the internal situation in Prussia and Russia?” If Austria wanted to intervene, it first needed to understand the state of affairs in both countries. Franz had his intelligence network, and the reports had already been gathered although they were not meant to see the light of day. An intelligence agency that frequently appeared in the public eye was no longer an intelligence agency, it would be more appropriate to call it a government department. Franz had always sought to minimize the presence of his intelligence network. Aside from a few high-ranking officials and major nobles, almost no one knew that the emperor had a secret intelligence organization at his disposal. Even for those who knew about it, few paid much attention. The organization was simply too low-key, so low-key that people tended to forget its existence. Over the years, aside from gathering intelligence, Franz had rarely activated this secret organization. Any operations that needed to be carried out were handled by the already-exposed intelligence agencies officially operating under the government. Just like the Jinyiwei (Embroidered Uniform Guard) of old, no matter how important or valuable an organization was to the state, if it threatened bureaucratic interests and couldn’t be brought under their control, the bureaucrats would find ways to dismantle it. Petty obstructions and sabotage were one thing, but the real dangers lay in false accusations, smear campaigns, and, ultimately, public pressure forcing the emperor to abandon the agency. History had taught Franz that emperors who compromised on this issue never met good ends. Whether it was Zhu Yunwen or Zhu Youjian, both were perfect cautionary tales. Public opinion manipulation and moral attacks? Fine, then he’ll just keep the intelligence agency completely hidden. In normal times, it won’t even surface. Its sole task will be to collect dirt on domestic bureaucrats and interest groups. This dirt was ammunition. When the time came, exposing it could take down a whole faction. By comparison, foreign intelligence work was merely a secondary function. Gathering basic information was fine, but the real responsibility lay with the public intelligence agencies that reported both to the emperor and the government. This was both a means of maintaining balance and a practical necessity. Intelligence work was a high-risk profession, especially for agents engaged in espionage abroad, who frequently needed the intervention of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to be rescued. Dealing with diplomats was inevitable. Beyond that, international diplomacy also required intelligence support. To ensure coordination, foreign intelligence divisions were organized under embassies. Foreign Minister Wessenberg replied, “The situation in the Kingdom of Prussia is dire. Even after expelling the refugees, the lives of ordinary citizens have been severely affected. Many are surviving on wild carrots to stave off hunger. According to reports from our embassy, just this month alone, the Prussian government has suppressed eight strikes and three uprisings. Prussia is practically a powder keg at this point. The Russian Empire is faring slightly better. Victories on the battlefield have, to some extent, concealed the crisis, but domestic labor conflicts are escalating. Over the past year, more than a hundred strikes have erupted across the empire, almost rivaling the French in this regard. During the winter that just ended, more than fifty cities, including St. Petersburg, experienced varying degrees of supply shortages. To conserve coal, residents of St. Petersburg had to share kitchens, with multiple families cooking together. In many areas, entire families were crammed into a single room just to stay warm.” The strikes in Russia did not catch Franz’s attention, primarily because France had already redefined his understanding of such matters. History had proven that the French people had a long-standing tradition of going on strikes. Even though it was still the 19th century, the citizens of France had already embraced this “meaningful activity.” Unlike later times when challengers emerged from various countries, France currently held the undisputed top position in global strike statistics, with an annual count reaching triple digits which was far ahead of any other nation. In all the years since Franz had ascended to the throne, the total number of strikes in Austria likely hadn’t even matched what France experienced in a single year. Of course, this only accounted for large-scale strikes involving at least a thousand participants. No one could track the countless small-scale strikes occurring on a daily basis. It made sense, though. France was now a fusion of French and Italian influences, both of which had rich histories of labor strikes. With such a background, it was only natural for the number of strikes to be high. Winter had passed, and public demand for essential supplies was decreasing. The Russian government had survived its most perilous period. The Prussian government, however, was in a completely different situation. The frequent uprisings by revolutionaries were clear evidence that Prussia was at its weakest. War itself was not the issue. Under the “****-ism” system, the Prussian people were not afraid of war, as long as they were fed first. Going hungry was absolutely unacceptable. Their united effort to expel the refugees earlier was no surprise. When they themselves could barely eat, who would welcome more mouths to feed? Franz asked with a hint of doubt, “Prussia has the Oder and Elbe rivers connecting it to us, and its domestic railway network is well-developed. Both water and land transport are available. There shouldn’t be a grain shortage, should there? Holz, how much food has the Prussian government purchased from us in recent months?” With sea routes cut off, Prussia could only trade with three neighboring countries—Austria, Denmark, and the German Federal Empire. Without a doubt, if the Prussian government needed to import grain, Austria would be its primary source. The other two simply didn’t have enough to sell. Agriculture Minister Holz reported, “Since Christmas, we have exported a total of 768,000 tons of agricultural products to the Kingdom of Prussia, including 200,000 tons of flour, 300,000 tons of potatoes, 120,000 tons of corn, 20,000 tons of soybeans, and 30,000 tons of meat products…” Seeing that potato exports had surpassed flour, Franz immediately recognized it as a sign of Prussia’s economic collapse. Only when they were truly at their limit would they resort to large-scale purchases of the cheaper potatoes. Franz sighed and said, “Even at a time like this, some people are still hoarding goods. Wilhelm I’s control over the country is truly lacking. They deserved to lose this war. Have the Foreign Ministry step in to mediate. The Kingdom of Prussia is on the verge of collapse, and the Russians have taken about as much as they can. I believe they won’t reject our offer for peace talks. Try to arrange for this international conference to be held in Vienna. Right now, we need to show everyone the efforts the Austrian government is making to maintain the territorial integrity of Germany.” The actual outcome didn’t matter. As long as people saw Austria’s diplomatic efforts, that was enough. War was a high-risk endeavor, and as the losing side, the Prussian government would undoubtedly pay a heavy price this time. That was exactly what Franz wanted. Without a sense of crisis, how could the various German states truly recognize Austria’s importance? The once-arrogant Kingdom of Prussia would serve as the perfect cautionary tale, awakening a sense of urgency among the German people and embedding the idea of a grand unification into their hearts. That meant the Austrian government would not step in to clean up Prussia’s mess. They would have to pay their own debts, and a harsh armistice treaty was inevitable. Foreign Minister Wessenberg asked with uncertainty, “Your Majesty, isn’t it a bit too soon to sideline the British?” The British government had been calling for mediation for months, but without any tangible results. If the Austrian government were to step in now and succeed immediately, it would be a major embarrassment for the British. This wasn’t just a matter of face, it was about international influence. One could imagine that after the Vienna Conference, Britain’s prestige in Europe would plummet to an all-time low. Franz shook his head and replied, “This was bound to happen sooner or later. An opportunity like this has presented itself. If we don’t take the chance to weaken Britain now, who knows when the next one will come? Don’t you think it would be rather amusing to let the nations of Europe believe that Britain is in decline? That Napoleon IV, who has been biding his time for so many years, should finally have his moment in the spotlight. If this drags on any longer, he might just go mad from frustration. Keep in mind, the British government has been planning to merge Prussia and the German Federal Empire to establish a North German state to oppose us. If they dare to go that far, then a little counterattack from us is hardly excessive, don’t you think?” It’s not that Franz underestimated Napoleon IV, the main issue was that France’s internal situation was truly poor. Compared to Napoleon III, his control over the nation was much weaker. In recent years, France has fallen behind, not just due to objective resource shortages, but also directly related to changes in government economic policies. Sometimes, the more you do, the more mistakes you make. Is developing North Africa good? Having an additional resource base and market for goods would certainly be beneficial, but only if development is actually feasible. The government’s policies all look good on paper, with many borrowing from Austria’s successful experiences, but the crucial difference lies in the national conditions. First, the French government lacks execution capability. Napoleon IV doesn’t command the absolute authority of having “the final word,” and the French cabinet lacks efficient coordination abilities. This is the pit left by Napoleon III. While he cleared obstacles for Napoleon IV’s rise to power, the price he paid was escalated internal political struggles. Due to Napoleon IV’s insufficient prestige, to maintain control of the government, he can only play a balancing game within the government. Internal fighting has consumed a large portion of the French government’s energy. Secondly, there’s the issue of cultural tradition. Whether French or Italian, influenced by maritime civilization, they are passionate about commerce but have no love for farming. Even after relocating people to the colonies, they prefer to stay in cities. Very few of them are willing to settle down and cultivate the land. Capitalists clearly lack interest in remote colonies. Even when they do invest in colonies, they prefer mining, the kind of business that yields massive returns on investment. Occasionally, there are a few who run plantations, but they are as rare as national treasures and far too few in number. People have become restless, all chasing after overnight wealth, unwilling to strive bit by bit. Hard work and prosperity have no market in France. The broader social environment is not something an individual can change. If one cannot change society, then one can only change oneself. If Napoleon IV remained mediocre, it would be fine. With France’s strong foundation, maintaining its status as a great power won’t be a problem. But if he has grand ambitions, then tragedy awaits. When ambition exceeds capability, a harsh lesson from society is inevitable. Seeing Franz’s expression, Wessenberg hesitated to speak. He wanted to say: The British plans were all tacitly allowed by Austria. To establish North Germany, Hanover and Prussia alone are not enough. It is also necessary to win over other German states. With too many participants involved, keeping it a secret is nothing more than a joke. Perhaps the British have yet to realize the problem. After all, the British government has been very cautious this time, targeting states that have relatively distant ties with Austria. At this stage of the plan, the total number of people in the know probably doesn’t exceed thirty, all of whom are absolute high-level figures in their respective countries, making betrayal unlikely. In theory, as the rulers of their nations, it is impossible for them to betray their own country. However, there are always exceptions. If someone realizes that the prospects for North Germany are not promising and wants to secure an alternative path for themselves, then there’s nothing that can be done. Had this been the peak period of a Prussian-German unification, Franz would have certainly tried to stop it. However, at this point, whether Prussia and Germany merge is no longer important. The damage inflicted on the Kingdom of Prussia by this war has been enormous. It has lost vast territories and populations while being burdened with massive debts. It was a complete mess. If North Germany is formed, the central government will have no energy to focus on anything else. Their priority will be figuring out how to keep the Kingdom of Prussia from collapsing. This is no joke. In the aftermath of the war, Prussia is left with countless widows and orphans, its economy is in ruins, and without an injection of funds, it will implode on its own. At this point, they cannot rely on the British as Britain is not in the business of charity. If anyone truly believes that Britain’s efforts in promoting North Germany are out of goodwill, they shouldn’t even bother thinking about it. Apart from the need to counterbalance Austria, the bigger concern is likely ensuring that the Kingdom of Prussia can properly service its debts. The former is merely a slogan, while the latter is what domestic interest groups truly care about. Just thinking about the massive debt burden of the Prussian government made Franz hesitate. This time, it was truly unaffordable. British debts, debts to other countries, domestic debts, compensation for fallen soldiers, post-war reconstruction costs, and possibly even a war indemnity to Russia. “The North German Empire”—what a grand-sounding name. But first, they had to help the Prussian government pay off its debts. Otherwise, on what basis would the Kingdom of Prussia even qualify to join as a small ally? One billion guilders? That doesn’t even seem enough to cover Britain’s share of the debt. 2 billion guilders? Still seems like a bottomless pit. 3 billion guilders? Maybe that would be enough, but who really knows until the dust settles? What does 3 billion guilders even mean? The new Holy Roman Empire’s central government currently has an annual financial revenue of less than 200 million guilders that even fifteen years of tax revenue wouldn’t be enough to fill this massive hole. Of course, these 3 billion guilders wouldn’t have to be paid all at once. The figure also includes accumulated interest, representing the total amount that would need to be repaid over time. If we’re talking about the principal amount, then forget about the yet-to-be-established North Germany, even the Austrian government wouldn’t be capable of taking over such a burden. Even if the debt could be repaid in installments, the Prussian government still wouldn’t have the means to handle such an enormous financial obligation. This is where some fine maneuvering would be required. Franz had a pretty good idea of what the Prussian government would do next. First, they would have to throw away their dignity and go all-in on printing money, using inflation to wipe out domestic debts. As for international loans, they would try to wear down creditors over time, negotiating for partial interest forgiveness—ideally paying only the principal. Issued bonds would all be deferred, with repayment postponed until funds became available. Even if they managed to cut the debt in half, the Prussian government still wouldn’t be able to pay it off. At that point, the central government would have to step in and shoulder part of the burden. The question is: would the other German states be willing to foot the bill for Prussia? When their own interests are at stake, what does the North German Empire even mean to them?
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