The British Far Eastern Fleet was in utter misery. As fellow losers in the Battle of Malacca, the Japanese Navy was naturally faring no better. The naval foundation accumulated over thirty years since the Meiji Restoration was largely wiped out in a single blow. Japan’s so-called status as the foremost naval power in East Asia instantly became a laughingstock. For the newly risen Japanese nationalism, the defeat at Malacca was simply unacceptable. As news of the defeat spread, cries of “Heavenly punishment for traitors of the nation” echoed across the Japanese archipelago. The navy, once hailed as the “hope of the nation,” overnight became a group of state criminals despised by all. The island nation’s tendency toward extremism was fully laid bare. At the Imperial Palace, ever since news of the defeat at Malacca arrived, Emperor Meiji convened imperial conferences one after another. There was no choice but to be anxious. A failed gamble always carries a price, and the defeat at Malacca directly pushed Japan into a dangerous position. Prime Minister Katsura Taro said, “The rescue ships have been returning one after another. Due to encounters with the Spanish Navy, we even lost two rescue vessels, and the remaining warships are unlikely to make it back. When combined with the battle reports released by Austria, it can be basically confirmed that Admiral Itō Sukeyuki died in the line of duty. According to intelligence from Cam Ranh Bay, the British Far Eastern Fleet also suffered catastrophic losses. There is no longer a single main warship of over ten thousand tons visible in the harbor. The situation in the Far East has completely collapsed, and for a long time to come, we will have to face enemy threats at sea.” Regardless of whether Itō Sukeyuki truly died in battle, he had to be declared as having sacrificed himself for the nation. Otherwise, there would be no way to appease public opinion at home. Ordinary citizens did not care about the reasons for defeat. Losing on the battlefield meant incompetence, worthlessness, and treason. Only death in battle could slightly ease some of the public’s anger, although the label of “useless” was unavoidable. By comparison, whether Itō Sukeyuki actually died was a minor issue. The most pressing problem was the complete deterioration of the Far Eastern situation. For an island nation, losing control of the sea was nothing short of fatal, especially with the Russo-Japanese War already raging at full intensity. Once the Holy Roman Navy advances eastward, not only will the Japanese forces at the front be finished, but even the Japanese home islands will be placed in danger. Itō Hirobumi said, “The outcome of the Battle of Malacca has already proven the gap in strength between us and the top-tier great powers. To make up for these gaps would require decades of effort, something that is simply impossible in the short term. Yet what we lack most right now is time. The situation in Europe is equally tense. The Holy Roman Empire is striking on all fronts, and the British are already stretched to their limits. The Royal Navy is not omnipotent. In the short term, the British are unlikely to be able to divert sufficient warships to reinforce the Far East. As for the other allies within the alliance, everyone understands the reality. Only the United States has any real strength, and even then, the rest are not even as capable as we are. Although the US government has also entered the war, its control over the individual states is very limited. At present, the western states are openly anti-war. Expecting them to dispatch troops to support us is unrealistic in the near term. For now, we can only rely on ourselves. However, the Imperial Navy has been severely weakened. The enemy could blockade the Sea of Japan at any moment. From a military standpoint, there is simply no fight to be had. Our only option is to seek a breakthrough through diplomacy.” It was not that Itō Hirobumi lacked resolve. The reality was that fighting was no longer feasible. If the navy could not hold, Japan would be reduced to an isolated island nation. Once maritime transport was cut off, the Japanese forces at the front would quickly collapse due to the loss of logistical support. At that point, the Holy Roman Navy would only need to ferry the Russian forces in the Far East onto the islands. The only remaining hope was that the Holy Roman Navy had also suffered serious losses at Malacca and would be unable to advance eastward in the short term. However, the probability of this was extremely low. According to intelligence reports, the enemy did not engage them in direct naval battles at all, instead keeping them at arm’s length while using air power as the primary offensive force. Foreign Minister Inoue Kaoru said, “Itō-kun, seeking a breakthrough in diplomacy is equally fraught with difficulty, and one could even say it is impossible. The relationship between the Empire and the Holy Roman government has never been good. Although we have consistently tried to repair it, Emperor Franz harbors far too deep a prejudice against the Empire. No matter how hard we try, it is all in vain. Over the years, the Austrians have caused trouble for the Empire more than once. Had we not handled matters properly, conflict would likely have erupted long ago. In addition, our enmity with Spain and Russia is another major obstacle. They are all important members of the Continental Alliance. At present, they would sooner add insult to injury than allow us to withdraw unscathed.” The ability to bend and endure has been an important factor in Japan’s rise, but when confronted with strongman politics, this approach simply does not work. No matter how much Japan humbled itself or released gestures of goodwill, Franz pretended not to see them. Whenever an opportunity arose, he made things difficult for Japan. In a certain sense, the Japanese Navy’s decisive southward advance was something it was forced into. The Continental Alliance is full of enemies. If Japan did not align itself with the British, then with whom was it supposed to align? Unfortunately, Britain declined too quickly. Before Japan could truly rise, Britain was already approaching its twilight. Influenced by the narrow thinking of a volcanic island nation, the Japanese were particularly prone to extremes, and even the highest levels of government were no exception. A single defeat in the Battle of Malacca Strait was enough to make the Japanese government lose confidence in the Oceanic Alliance’s ability to win the war. One must understand that many other member states of the Oceanic Alliance were not so pessimistic. In their view, even if the Alliance could not win the war, it would not be difficult to end it in a dignified manner. No one was foolish. If defeat were absolutely certain, who would continue to accompany the British in this game? Politics is, after all, the most realistic of pursuits. Politicians think first and foremost of interests, and once they realize that success is impossible, alliances become nothing more than scraps of paper. After letting out a sigh, Itō Hirobumi said slowly, “It is not that serious. The Holy Roman government will first and foremost consider its interests. Although Russia and Austria appear to be allies at present, once the Holy Roman Empire wins the war, the situation will fundamentally change. Without a common enemy, all that will remain between Russia and Austria are interests and conflicts. There is an inherent strategic contradiction between the world’s number one power and the world’s number two power, especially when they also share a long border, which only multiplies the hidden frictions. Given the greed of the Russian government, they have never passed up any opportunity for expansion. Personally, I suspect that after the war, India will become the focal point of contradictions between Russia and Austria. If the Russians were to take half of India, could the Holy Roman Empire really tolerate them taking the Far East as well? At that point, it would either have to enter the field and fight personally, or support a proxy. As long as the Holy Roman government still cares about appearances, it would be impossible for it to turn on its own allies immediately after defeating Britain. The Qing Dynasty is incompetent and simply cannot be propped up. Under such circumstances, the Empire becomes their only choice. Of course, unlike the British, the Holy Roman Empire itself is the world’s strongest land power, so its need for us is not that great, and our expectations must therefore be lower.” It was clear that Itō Hirobumi himself lacked complete confidence. A conjecture was, after all, only a conjecture. Eastern and Western modes of thinking differed, and no one truly knew what the Holy Roman government had in mind. Acting as a henchman was not difficult, and one who delivered himself to the door would not be refused. The problem was that there were two kinds of henchman: those cultivated for long-term use, and those treated as disposable cannon fodder. What Japan needed was to become the former, one that could receive sustained support, rather than the latter, reduced to something akin to toilet paper to be disposed of once used. … After the thunderous explosions, raging flames erupted below. The fire released boundless heat, bringing a perverse warmth to the cold winter. For the people of London, however, this was a kind of warmth they would rather never have, especially in a winter that was already unusually harsh. After days of continuous fighting, the British Air Force had seen through the true intentions of the Holy Roman air force and no longer scrambled blindly to intercept. In order to preserve its remaining strength, the British Air Force initiated a strategic redeployment, retreating to Scotland, beyond the effective reach of the Holy Roman air force. With no air cover remaining, the skies over London completely fell under Holy Roman control, and the pattern of bombing gradually changed. Napalm bombs, which scatter a layer of flaming gel after detonation, releasing temperatures of around 1,000 degrees Celsius and clinging to other objects to burn for extended periods, quickly stood out among the various types of munitions and became the Holy Roman air force’s favorite. In a place like London, where smog was particularly heavy, the flames produced after a napalm explosion also served to mark targets. The only drawback was that the thick smoke from burning buildings could likewise impair pilots’ visibility. That, however, was a minor issue. Wherever there was smoke, there was no need to bother. Bomb the places where no smoke was rising. It amounted to a different kind of carpet bombing. In the original timeline, napalm bombs failed to shine during the First World War, primarily due to shortages of raw materials, as they required large quantities of natural rubber. Natural rubber, as a strategic resource, had limited production capacity and, moreover, was a crop that took years to cultivate, making rapid expansion of output impossible. With insufficient production and numerous competing demands, there was naturally no way to allocate large amounts of natural rubber to bomb manufacturing. Now, the situation was different. Driven by the butterfly effect, the automotive and electrical industries had erupted ahead of schedule, and the market for natural rubber had long since been opened. The Holy Roman Empire alone consumed millions of tons of natural rubber every year. Where there was demand, there was production, and rubber output surged accordingly. After the outbreak of war, the economy shifted into a wartime footing. Squeezing out tens of thousands of tons of natural rubber for bomb production posed no real difficulty for the Holy Roman Empire. And so came the raging inferno of the present moment. Unlike the earlier bombings that ended with a single explosion, the blazing fires now produced a far greater visual impact. More and more British civilians developed strong resentment toward this war. Even when Edward VII personally delivered a radio address calling on the people to take up arms and defend the nation, he could not stem the rising tide of anti-war sentiment. After the air force abandoned air defense duties, criticism intensified across all sectors of society. For a time, the Campbell Cabinet seemed to become the sinner of Britain itself. Campbell, after all, was not Churchill. His personal sense of restraint was far stronger, and he could not simply ignore public opinion. After exhaling a puff of cigar smoke, Prime Minister Campbell asked, “When will the air force be able to sortie again?” “I am sorry, Prime Minister. In the previous engagements, the air force has suffered severe losses. In the short term, we do not have the capability to fight again.” It was clear that Prime Minister Campbell’s expectations had already dropped considerably. He was no longer demanding that the air force defeat the enemy, but merely that it be able to “go into action.” Unfortunately, reality was cruel. Even this modest request was rejected by Air Secretary Attilio. There was no alternative. At present, fighting was simply impossible. Over the past month, the British Air Force had lost more than a thousand aircraft, with over eight hundred pilots killed in action. Although Britain’s aviation industry ranked second only to that of the Holy Roman Empire, replacing more than a thousand aircraft within a single month was still unattainable. This was especially true since domestic factories had become priority targets of enemy bombing, further delaying production. Aircraft could not be replaced in time, and pilot training was even slower. One could not possibly train pilots for only ten days or half a month and then send them straight into combat. Home Secretary Azevedo said, “The political pressure is enormous. Public dissatisfaction with the air force’s inaction is extremely strong. If we do not do something soon…” “Sir, we have already taken action. Half a month ago, we carried out an air raid on Paris. Last week, we bombed Madrid. Yesterday, we even struck Norden. The Royal Air Force has already used the maximum force available to retaliate against the enemy, but this still cannot change the disparity in overall strength between the two sides. We need more pilots and more advanced aircraft, and all of that takes time. Until these problems are resolved, the air force should not engage the enemy in a decisive battle. No one can guarantee that the enemy will not forcibly attempt a landing. The air force must preserve a certain level of strength in order to deliver a fatal blow at a critical moment.” Although unwilling to accept it, everyone had to admit that Attilio was right. The Royal Navy was no longer capable of guaranteeing the security of the English Channel. The Battle of Malacca had already demonstrated that in near coastal operations, an air force could massacre a navy. Without air power, once the enemy launched a forced landing, Britain would not even be able to intercept it. If the enemy were allowed to land successfully, there would be nothing more to discuss. The subsequent fighting would be impossible. Expecting the redcoats to defend the British Isles hardly inspired any confidence. Foreign Secretary Adam said, “The issue of pilots need not worry us too much. The Foreign Office has already reached agreements with our allies. Over the next six months, we will gradually bring in one thousand pilots from various countries. Three hundred pilots will arrive as early as next week. In addition, the two hundred fighter aircraft we purchased from the United States will also arrive next week. If their performance meets our requirements, a continuous stream of aircraft will be shipped from the Americas in the future. While this will not completely resolve the air force’s difficulties, it should at least ease the pressure.” It was a rare piece of good news. The furrows on everyone’s brows finally showed signs of easing. Only Chancellor of the Exchequer Asquith remained grim and deeply troubled. “It is not that simple. I do not know whether you have noticed, but industrial raw material prices have risen again recently. Factories undertaking government orders have already sent representatives to the Logistics Office to demand renegotiation of prices. The reports have reached the Treasury. I had people look into it, and since the outbreak of the war, domestic prices across the board have risen. Raw materials related to strategic industries have seen particularly sharp increases, with some materials even becoming unavailable. Because of the war, Far Eastern shipping routes have been completely cut off. Indian Ocean routes have been lengthened by more than ten thousand nautical miles. Routes to the Americas have been less affected, but the frequency of accidents involving merchant vessels has clearly increased. This is only the beginning. The difficulties we will face next will only grow. The Royal Navy will have to provide escort protection for merchant ships…”
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