After news of the Russian Embassy Incident spread, European public opinion immediately exploded. This incident was far more serious than any previous missionary case. In modern history, there had never been a case of a foreign embassy staff being “wiped out.” Suddenly, the clamor for punitive action echoed incessantly. A series of labels, such as “barbaric,” “brutal,” and “uncivilized,” were once again slapped onto the heads of the Japanese. The number of people secretly fueling this fire remains unknown, but it is clear that there are genuinely many who wish to instigate a Russo-Japanese War. Public support is crucial, but excessive support can spoil things. For the Russian government, the current level of public outrage was precisely what they didn’t want. Punishing the Japanese by sending troops sounds easy to say, but the reality of implementation is starkly different. The Trans-Siberian Railway is not yet fully operational. Launching a war hastily at this moment would be tantamount to courting death. Unlike the original timeline, the Russian government has suffered significant logistical losses in recent decades. No matter how stubborn a person is, after suffering so many setbacks, they will learn a lesson and even the Russian government is no exception. … “Since public opinion is raging so fiercely, what countermeasures does everyone propose?” Nicholas II asked, barely suppressing his fury. Having suffered such an immense loss, not only were they unable to retaliate, but they were actually forced to suppress domestic anti-Japanese, pro-war sentiment. This was practically forcing the world to re-evaluate the Tsar himself. There was no choice. At present, they truly lacked the necessary conditions to take military action against Japan. For the sake of the grand strategy, Nicholas II could only swallow his pride and endure his anger for the time being. Prime Minister Sergei Witte responded, “Your Majesty, the reasons why public opinion is raging so fiercely right now are twofold: First, the populace has been enraged by the tragedy in Japan and now needs to vent; second, there is provocation from the pro-war faction and international powers. Calming the anger of the people is simple, we only need to achieve a diplomatically satisfactory explanation from Japan. Given that the international community is currently backing us, the Japanese have no basis to refuse, so securing these terms should not be difficult. The real trouble lies with the agitation by the pro-war faction and international powers. The anti-Japanese wave among the populace is currently surging higher and higher. We can personally intervene to manage the domestic pro-war faction. Although it will be troublesome, we can certainly find a way to make them hold their tongues. However, the provocations from international powers will be very difficult to stop. The British have painstakingly tried to lure us into the Far East, even stooping to form an alliance with the Japanese. After preparing for so long, the opportunity has arrived and there is no reason for them to back down. Besides the British, we must also be wary of the Qing Dynasty, Spain, the Nordic Federation, and other nations. Although their individual motives differ, they all hope the Empire will go to war with the Japanese. What we must do now is remain calm and composed. We should first use diplomatic means to negotiate with the Japanese government and leverage the power of the international community to suppress them.” Frankly speaking, Nicholas II was never one to remain calm and composed. The sole reason he had managed to endure the situation until now was that the senior government officials were all anti-war. Even the military high command, who supported a war with Japan, did not want to launch it immediately. Since everyone wanted to tide things over, the easily swayed Nicholas II naturally followed the prevailing advice. After a moment of contemplation, Nicholas II slowly spoke, “Let the Foreign Ministry take action. Since the public opinion has already been manufactured, we cannot let it go to waste. Now is the time when European nations feel the most revulsion toward the Japanese. We must take this opportunity to completely smear their reputation. We must focus our public relations efforts particularly on Britain. Ideally, we should be able to dissolve the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, or at the very least, make the British government hesitant to act and afraid to openly support the Japanese government. Second is the Holy Roman Empire. Whether we are leveraging international pressure against Japan or preparing for future military intervention in the Far East, their strength will be indispensable.” It was clear that making this decision was extremely unwilling for Nicholas II. It must be noted that the Russian people have one major characteristic: they do not tolerate government “weakness.” The common people had no idea how difficult it would be to send troops to the Far East. In the average person’s view, the difficulty of attacking Japan was comparable to simply crushing a bug. Now that they had been provoked by a mere bug, the government was not immediately sending troops for retaliation but instead playing these so-called “diplomatic games.” This was nothing short of a national disgrace. In reality, the situation was even more serious. Military enthusiasts among the populace had already helped the Russian government draft comprehensive battle plans. It didn’t matter if the Navy was weak; they could just bring in allies to form a coalition army, replicating the strategy used a few years ago against the Qing Dynasty. As for whether other countries were willing to commit troops, that was the Foreign Ministry’s job and failure to secure them simply meant they were incompetent. Their conviction was further reinforced, especially after the media published news that Germany’s East Indies Fleet and Britain’s Far East Fleet were both sailing toward the Sea of Japan. Amidst the massive civilian outcry for war, the choice to temporarily endure was a major blow to Nicholas II’s own prestige as monarch. For Nicholas II himself, the situation was now one where he had to “endure anger for the time being,” only to then “grow increasingly enraged the more he thought about it.” … Inside the Palace of Vienna, watching the snowflakes flutter down across the sky, Franz sighed helplessly. It was going to be yet another cold winter. Perhaps it was due to his advancing age, but in recent years, Franz had grown increasingly dissatisfied with Vienna’s winters. The Holy Roman Empire possesses many cities where it feels like spring all year round, but unfortunately, none of them are close to Vienna. Simply leaving to escape the cold for the winter is a hassle. Frankly speaking, after the Holy Roman Empire developed to its current state, Vienna could no longer truly be considered the center of the Empire. If one ignores the scale and looks solely at the map, Vienna could even be counted as a border city. Despite all these flaws, it still does not change the fact that Vienna is the capital of the Holy Roman Empire. Relocating the capital is simply impossible. In fact, after the unification of the Holy Roman Empire, the issue of moving the capital was brought up, and it even sparked a major debate at one point. Alas, everything fears comparison. While Vienna has its flaws, the other cities in the Holy Roman Empire have even greater shortcomings. A city that is optimal in every respect exists only in dreams. After comprehensively weighing historical, political, cultural, economic, and strategic factors, Vienna remains the most suitable city to be the capital of the Holy Roman Empire. Since there was no better choice, Franz naturally wouldn’t engage in pointless upheaval. In fact, even if a better option existed, Franz still wouldn’t move out of his old nest. The Habsburg Dynasty has managed affairs here for several centuries and possesses a profoundly deep popular base, something no other city can rival. As for winter, well, if it’s cold, let it be cold. Happiness is all relative. Compared to their neighbors, the Russian Empire and the Nordic Federation, every winter in Vienna is a warm winter. Worst case, he will simply spend next winter somewhere else. His son is grown up now, and as a semi-retired Emperor, he has the freedom to wander around. … Frederick spoke, “Father, the Russian government’s delegation has already departed from Saint Petersburg. It seems the Russians are going to give up on military retaliation.” One has to admit that the Russian Bear of this era was straightforward. Anyone who understands them slightly can deduce their decisions from their actions. While you can’t guarantee 100% accuracy, guessing with high certainty is not a problem. If you swapped them with the British, however, it would be impossible to judge. The British can talk and laugh with you one moment, and march troops against you the next. Looking at his son, whose head was dusted with snowflakes, Franz nodded and said, “They are likely waiting for the Trans-Siberian Railway to open. Without that railway, sending troops to the Far East is almost impossible. However, the Russians’ current plan is likely to fail. Just because they want to wait does not mean the Japanese are willing to wait as well. This embassy incident has pushed both Japan and Russia onto the edge of a cliff. When enemies meet on a narrow road, the brave one prevails. War is already inevitable. From the current situation, neither Japan nor Russia is prepared for war, so a conflict is unlikely to break out in the short term. The next step is to see which of them is faster. The side that completes its war preparations first will gain a tremendous advantage in the ensuing war.” Frankly speaking, Franz was very surprised by the restraint shown by the Russian government. Since when was Nicholas II able to remain so composed? Following the Russian government’s usual practices, when an incident like this occurred, they would usually fight first, regardless of the consequences. It wasn’t just the Russian government as most great powers, upon encountering such a situation, would first consider war, or how best to wage it. The Holy Roman Empire was no exception. If the victims of the tragedy had been his own diplomats, Franz would also have been unable to resist launching a retaliatory war. Of course, the prerequisite is that the war must be winnable. If he truly encountered an opponent he couldn’t handle, he would still admit defeat when necessary. Frederick asked, dumbfounded, “The Japanese dare to proactively provoke war? That’s impossible, isn’t it? This incident was entirely their fault. If they actively start a war and lose, the Russians could then colonize Japan legitimately. The disparity in strength between Japan and Russia is vast. Even if the Japanese government manages to gain a short-term advantage, once the Trans-Siberian Railway is operational and Russian reinforcements arrive, they only have one path and that is defeat.” Not only did he think so, hardly anyone in all of Europe believed Japan had the courage to provoke war. “Why wouldn’t they dare?” Franz retorted. “It has reached this stage now and everyone knows that the Russo-Japanese War will break out sooner or later. What does the Japanese government have left to fear? By attacking before the Trans-Siberian Railway is operational, they still have some hope of winning. The longer they wait, the lower their chances of victory become. Furthermore, they have the British cheering them on from behind. The British government has been preparing for so long, precisely because they want to exhaust Russian strength in the Far East and relieve military pressure on India, correct? As long as the Japanese government reacts quickly enough, they can preemptively seize control of the Far East region before the Trans-Siberian Railway is completed. After that, it becomes a simple matter of the British government providing the money and the Japanese government providing the manpower. They can slowly wear down the Russians using the advantages of time and location. The Japanese population is certainly large enough, and their army’s combat effectiveness is decent enough. As long as British support keeps flowing, they could hold out for eight or even ten years. Regardless of the final outcome, the Russians will be severely weakened, and the ensuing problems will even affect the Russian-Austrian Alliance.” It wasn’t that Franz was being pessimistic, the truth was that the Russian-Austrian Alliance had developed fissures long ago. It had only persisted until now due to the Austrian government’s concerted efforts to bridge the gap. Outsiders couldn’t see it, but as an insider, Franz was very clear: the contradictions between Russia and Austria were rapidly accumulating. This involved not only political imbalance, as the Russian government’s sense of crisis grew, but also intensifying friction in economic trade. As vested interests of the Russian-Austrian Alliance, Russia’s old aristocracy, who earned money through farming and mining, might not have many complaints. However, Russia's emerging national bourgeoisie and intellectual class were extremely dissatisfied with the current status quo. In the view of these “enlightened individuals,” if Russia did not break away from its current position as a raw material supplier and a goods market, the Russian Empire would eventually be reduced to an economic colony. To change all this, they first had to break the economic dependence on the Holy Roman Empire. This included withdrawing from the free trade system and implementing tariff barriers. If possible, it would even be best to completely wipe out the national debt, lest the heavy repayment burden impede the modernization of the Russian Empire. Although this group of people doesn’t hold much influence in the Russian government, it is always easier to cause trouble than to achieve success. As for the consequences of taking such actions, Franz did not believe that a bunch of idealists would care, nor did he believe a group of profit-seeking capitalists would worry about it. In fact, the situation was even worse than that. The calls within the Holy Roman Empire to oppose the Russian-Austrian Alliance were also increasing daily. The military aristocracy and farm owners dependent on the agricultural industry chain were also highly dissatisfied with the large volume of imported Russian agricultural products. In the past, the Russian Empire was sufficiently powerful, and the Empire also needed an ally to deal with France in the west. For the sake of the greater good, everyone could grudgingly accept the situation. With the conclusion of the European War, the Holy Roman Empire immediately soared to success, and strategically, the necessity of the Russian Empire had been infinitely reduced. Against this backdrop, people naturally felt no enthusiasm for economic policies that favored the Russian Empire. The Austro-Russian Alliance has lasted this long, in part, due to the Austrian government’s policy of economic support. The foreign exchange revenue generated annually by exports of grain and minerals accounts for 94.6% of the Russian Empire’s total foreign exchange income, with the vast majority of these raw materials heading to the Holy Roman Empire. If this income stream were cut off, the bankruptcy of the Russian government would only be a matter of time and they wouldn’t even have room to struggle. The alliance would naturally fail to sustain itself. These are not people without a say. If Franz hadn’t used the need to bait them with the goal of competing for world hegemony, things would have already spiraled out of control below. Given the current situation, once Britain declines, the Austro-Russian Alliance will have more or less reached its end. Ultimately, this all stems from a conflict of interests. The very existence of the Austro-Russian Alliance damages their interests, so they naturally look for ways to kick it aside. The ability to endure for the sake of Imperial interests for a few years demonstrates a remarkably broad perspective. Moving forward, even God couldn’t stop them. Of course, once that stage is reached, the mission of the Austro-Russian Alliance will also be complete and it truly would be time to discard it. Evidently, this is only the ideal scenario. The Russians are not fools. The Russian government long ago realized the danger, which is precisely why Nicholas II seeks to escape dependence on the Holy Roman Empire. Since they are destined to be abandoned in the future, the Russian government is naturally making preparations. For instance, the Southern Strategy and the Eastern Strategy are the Russians’ proposed solutions. In short, the key was to ensure the Russian Empire had sufficient funds. The Russian Empire, with money in its pockets, was fearless. Even if they couldn’t deal with the Holy Roman Empire, self-preservation was absolutely certain. The British are currently calculating to heighten the Russian government’s sense of crisis, forcing the Russians to defect and align with them. This is not impossible. Although the British market cannot compare to the Holy Roman Empire, there is still hope of absorbing half of Russia’s grain and mineral export share. Lending another sum of money to the Russian government would allow them to weather the short-term shock. As for the potential after-effects, the British government probably wouldn’t worry too much on behalf of the Russians. As if lost in thought, after a long while, Frederick coldly stated, “Once the British fall, the Russians will be our biggest competitor. The Austro-Russian Alliance has, after all, lasted for so many years. Without sufficient reason, it’s not easy for us to move against them. If the Russian government insists on maintaining the alliance, we won’t even be able to overtly suppress them. For the sake of the Empire’s reputation, we can only let the Russians decline prematurely. Anyway, they are no longer needed in the coming struggle for hegemony.” This is not just “maturity,” but “ruthlessness.” In Franz’s view, Frederick’s ability to make such a decision was a sign of moving towards maturity. For a ruler, if you’re not ruthless, you can’t stand firm. The Austro-Russian Alliance has continued for many years. Although there have been no shortage of opponents in both countries, the friendship between the people is genuinely deep. Not to mention anything else, intermarriage alone is countless. Through past cultural exchange and commercial trade, people from the aristocracy in the upper class to ordinary citizens in both Russia and Austria have formed numerous kinship ties. If they were to attack an ally without cause, it would be difficult to justify to their own people, and the damage to international reputation would be even greater. Since they couldn’t act themselves, they could only use an indirect approach—using others to do the dirty work. The British want to pull the Russians over, but the prerequisite is that the Russian Empire still retains a certain level of strength. If the Russians are ruined, then pulling them over would be useless. “The Trans-Siberian Railway has not yet been completed. The strength the Russians can deploy in the Far East is limited, and even if they lose the war, the loss will be limited. Once the railway is open, the Russians can go all out, and the Japanese forces will be seriously insufficient. Even with British support, they cannot compensate for the disparity in strength between the two nations. After all, we and the Russians are still allies, and essential support will be indispensable. At the very least, we must provide loans, sell weapons, equipment, and strategic materials.” The precondition for killing with a borrowed knife is that the knife must be sharp enough. Clearly, Japan is still not sharp enough. Seriously wounding the Russians might be possible, but dreaming of crippling the Russian Empire is just that—a dream.
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