One wave had not yet settled when another arose. Just as the naval arms race among Britain, France, and Austria was reaching its climax, fresh turmoil broke out in Central Asia. On July 11, 1887, the British Viceroy of India, Lytton, suddenly notified the Afghan government that a delegation would be sent to visit Kabul. A weasel paying New Year’s greetings to a chicken clearly had no good intentions. Although many years had passed since the last Anglo-Afghan War, British colonial activities in Afghanistan had never ceased, and there had never been any real friendship between the two countries. Anti-British sentiment among the Afghan population had always run deep. Considering the potential threats to the delegation’s safety and Russia’s likely reaction, Abdur Rahman Khan, the Emir of Afghanistan, politely declined the British request to avoid trouble. However, Viceroy Lytton was not one to concede easily. He repeatedly pressed the request, showing no intention of giving up until Afghanistan agreed. Unable to withstand Britain’s persistence, in September, the Emir was forced to agree to the British demand. Since the British were coming, the Russians naturally could not sit idly by while their ally was pressured. The Russian government quickly sent a delegation as well. What happened afterward, Franz was not entirely sure, but in any case, Britain and Russia began their struggle for influence over Afghanistan. Franz asked, “What kind of support do the Russians want from us?” Austria was thousands of miles away from Afghanistan, with the Persian Empire lying in between. The Austrian government did not like to meddle in distant affairs. In places where there were no tangible interests and where Austria could not easily project its power, naturally there would be no Austrian influence. In the Afghan region, the only two powers with real influence were Britain and Russia. Given this context, it seemed rather strange that the Russian government would want Austria’s support. Foreign Minister Wessenberg replied, “The Russians hope that we can help divert Britain’s attention. Ideally, we should find something to keep the British government busy.” Carefully recalling the Anglo-Russian struggle over Afghanistan in the original timeline, Franz finally noticed something unusual—the Second Anglo-Afghan War had not occurred. Realizing something was off, Franz motioned for everyone to take a break and quickly went into a secret chamber to retrieve the memoirs he had written at the start of his journey through time. He began to review them carefully. Soon, he pieced together the causes and consequences. Due to the impact of the Russo-Prussian War, the Russians had been too preoccupied in recent years to pursue expansion into Central Asia. With no threat from Russia and considering the heavy losses Britain had suffered in the First Anglo-Afghan War, the British naturally had little desire to seize Afghanistan. Moreover, the “Anglo-Boer War” that had erupted between Britain and Austria over the struggle for South Africa had also played a key role. After spending over a hundred million pounds and ending up empty-handed, the outcome directly influenced the British government’s colonial policy. Given these various factors, Afghanistan, which offered little strategic or economic benefit, had fortunately escaped disaster. Now, however, the Russians were making a comeback, once again shifting their expansionist ambitions toward Central Asia. A pro-Russian small country like Afghanistan had become an eyesore. Returning to the meeting room, Franz picked up his teacup, took a sip, and slowly said, “What do you think about us finding a way to provoke a Second Anglo-Afghan War?” This sudden and unexpected shift left everyone exchanging bewildered glances. None of them had any idea what scheme the Emperor had in mind. Seeing that no one had caught on, Franz instructed an attendant, “Bring over the map of Central Asia.” … “Look here at Afghanistan. To the north it borders the Central Asian Khanates, to the south British India, to the east the Far Eastern Empire, and to the west Persia. You could say it is the heart of Asia. Whoever controls this region holds strategic initiative over Central Asia, West Asia, and South Asia, making it vitally important to both Britain and Russia. In recent years, while the Russians were preoccupied with European affairs and had no time for Central Asia, the British naturally could afford to slowly and steadily infiltrate the Afghan region. Now that the Russians have shifted their focus back to Central Asia, a pro-Russian Afghanistan becomes a dilemma for Britain. If the Russians act a little more aggressively and their diplomatic attempts to draw Afghanistan into their orbit fail, do you think the British will feel at ease?” Chancellor Karl responded, “Your Majesty, it will not be difficult for the Russians to provoke the British or to disrupt Britain’s plan to win over Afghanistan. But right now, we are in a critical stage of the arms race. No matter how important the Afghan region may be, it cannot compare to the importance of British naval supremacy. Even if the British government feels the pressure, they won’t dare to start a Second Anglo-Afghan War before the arms race has concluded.” This was the most practical issue. Faced with two challengers, France and Austria, no matter how bold the British were, they would have to prioritize their concerns. Franz nodded and said, “That is correct. Under normal circumstances, the British would not launch a Second Anglo-Afghan War in the middle of an arms race. I am not expecting the war to break out immediately either. If we can delay it long enough, we can still achieve our objective. What we need to do now is to encourage the Russians and reassure the Russian government that this arms race will last for several years, so they can feel confident in confronting the British boldly. If necessary, our Foreign Ministry can directly bolster the confidence of the Afghan government, for example by supplying them with some firearms and ammunition. With two great powers standing behind them, it should be enough to intimidate others. And if that is still not enough, we might as well send someone to assassinate the British envoy to further inflame tensions between both sides.” Things like principles and integrity could be discarded at critical moments. Franz had even considered assassination as a method of creating conflict. Of course, if such an assassination took place, Austria would not take the blame. Either the Afghans would carry it out themselves, or the Russians would bear the responsibility. In any case, it would have nothing to do with Austria. Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “Your Majesty, Afghanistan is already effectively surrounded by the British on all sides. Once war breaks out, neither we nor the Russians will be able to reach them in time. Without our support, Afghanistan alone would likely not be able to hold out for long. If the British take control of Afghanistan, it will be far more difficult for the Russians to push southward in the future than it is now.” It had to be admitted that the international situation facing Afghanistan was truly dire at the moment. In the south, it directly bordered the British; in the north, the Central Asian khanates were British clients; in the west, Persia was also pro-British, or rather, was forced to be pro-British; the east was relatively safe for now, but even that route was not easy. Once war broke out, Afghanistan would immediately fall into an isolated and helpless position. Even if there was international aid, it would be extremely difficult to get it through. As an agricultural country, losing international assistance would make the prospect of resisting the British incredibly slim. Yet Afghanistan’s strategic location was extremely important. If the British managed to occupy and consolidate their control here, with the advantage of its easily defensible terrain, it would be difficult for Russia to push south in the future. The British might even be able to turn the tables and support their allies in Central Asia, creating trouble for the Russian government. Franz shook his head and said, “As long as we want to provide them support, we can definitely get supplies through. At worst, we can send airships to airdrop supplies to them. If the range is not enough, they can land in Persia on the return trip. Even if the Persian government leans towards the British, in this matter they will have no choice but to turn a blind eye. Do not underestimate Afghanistan. As long as they have enough weapons, they can give the British a massive headache, and the conflict certainly will not end quickly. Even if the situation truly spirals out of control and the British do take Afghanistan, we can still support Russia to advance through Central Asia and push back. As long as we do not give the British time to consolidate their hold, I believe the Russians are still capable of defeating them.” This was the honest truth. Franz genuinely had confidence in Afghanistan. The title “Graveyard of Empires” was not an empty one. Even if they could not win outright, the Afghan people could outlast their enemies. If the cities fell, there were still the towns; if the towns fell, there were still the mountains and forests. As long as the people were alive, the fight would not end. In the original timeline, several major empires had suffered crushing defeats in Afghanistan, all worn down by the heavy cost of prolonged military campaigns. Unless the British resorted to massacres and immediately carried out genocide, it would be very difficult for them to claim victory. By comparison, Franz’s confidence in the Russians was not as high. The main reason was that the three major wars of recent decades had drained the vitality of the Russian Empire. If nothing else, just looking at the population, the Russian Empire had 30 million fewer people than it did in the same historical period, and the proportion of young and able-bodied men was at least 5% lower than in actual history. Though the Russian Empire appeared strong, in reality it was in its weakest state. A short-term offensive might be feasible, but it truly could not sustain a prolonged war. If the British were willing to pay any price and used their Indian troops to grind down Russian forces in a war of attrition, the Russian government might genuinely not be able to hold out. Franz’s lack of confidence in Russia did not mean others felt the same; the cabinet had been convinced. *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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