As the situation on the Afghan battlefield continued to deteriorate, high-level British officials began to change their views. Secretary of War Edward Stanhope stated, “The Russians are making rapid advances in Afghanistan entirely because of the support they’re receiving from France and Austria. The enemy we’re facing is not just the Russian Empire. It is a triple alliance where the Russians provide the troops, and France and Austria supply the money and materials. Though Britain is powerful, we don’t have the strength to confront three major European powers at once. If we want to win this war, we must cut off French and Austrian support for the Russian government.” After defeats on the front lines, some explanation is always needed at home. Besides, Edward Stanhope wasn’t exaggerating. The Russian victories would be impossible without help from France and Austria. More precisely, Austria’s support is crucial. France is also backing Russia, but their actions are more restrained due to the Anglo-French alliance. From the War Department’s perspective, the goal of expanding the army has already been achieved. Now, the top priority is finding a way to win the war. Edward Stanhope knows British military strength well and realizes there’s no short-term chance of turning the tide through direct military action. The best way to win is to cut off foreign aid to the Russians. Without financial and material support from France and Austria, Russia alone wouldn’t be able to sustain the war for more than a year or so. The Russian government’s finances would collapse under the pressure. Whether through defeating Russia head-on or prolonged war of attrition, the goal is to win the war. Edward Stanhope is a pragmatist and is not too concerned about the methods. Foreign Secretary George explained, “The Foreign Office is already working on this, but the results have been disappointing. France and Austria support the Russians mainly to drain our strength so they can benefit from the aftermath. Every time we try to stir up conflicts, the governments of these three nations shut them down. In the short term, cutting off French and Austrian aid to Russia is very difficult.” Britain’s current disadvantage is actually a consequence of its long-term foreign policy. France and Austria both harbor resentment toward Britain, and supporting Russia is their way of getting revenge. Even without direct benefits, they would still back the Russians. International relations may be based on interests, but people bear grudges too. Take France for example. Under normal circumstances, Russian bonds would have no market at all, but the French still bought them. Many of the buyers weren’t just speculators. They wanted revenge. It was a way to vent their anger toward Britain. As the advertisements say, “Every franc used to buy bonds becomes a bullet aimed at the British.” Austria was similar. In recent years, they had been suppressed by Britain and had achieved little overseas. The Austrian government had long wanted to retaliate. Beyond revenge, using Russia to drain Britain’s strength brought plenty of benefits. If Britain were to lose the war and India became a battlefield, the mighty British Empire, the empire on which the sun never sets, would finally begin to set. The Royal Navy’s dominance depends on financial support. If India is ruined, Britain won’t be able to maintain naval supremacy relying only on the British Isles and other colonies. When hatred aligns with interest, you get the current situation. France and Austria see backing the Russian attack on Afghanistan as a means to knock Britain off its pedestal as world hegemon. Chancellor of the Exchequer Childers shook his head: “It’s not that serious. The French are still our allies. A full anti-British alliance will not happen. Just look at the level of support. Only a small faction within the French government is backing the Russians, not the official position of the state. Austria isn’t foolish either. If Russia takes India, Austria will face more pressure on its eastern front. Their support for Russia has clear limits. Unless something unexpected happens, Austrian support will end once Russia wins in Afghanistan.” If France, Austria, and Russia truly allied, even the neutral countries would inevitably side with them. A united European continent would spell the end of British hegemony. Britain’s long-standing strategy of sowing discord among European powers stems from this one goal of preventing the unification or alliance of continental Europe that might threaten British interests. Thanks to centuries of effort and lingering historical grievances, Europe is already full of internal divisions. France and Austria may be supporting Russia now, but that doesn’t erase the inherent competition between them and Russia. The mere contest for continental dominance is enough to prevent real cooperation among the three. From a purely developmental perspective, Russia’s potential far exceeds that of any European country. Even Austria, without first annexing the Ottoman Empire, can’t truly match Russia. Once Russia fixes its economic shortcomings, it could quickly rise and become one of the world’s strongest nations. From this perspective, France and Austria have no real reason to let Russia keep growing unchecked. Especially Austria. Being Russia’s neighbor makes future conflict almost inevitable. Edward Stanhope nodded in agreement and said, “Your analysis is logical. But we absolutely cannot allow Russia to win the Afghan war, not even temporarily. Politically, that is unacceptable. If we want to win quickly, we must force France and Austria to abandon support for the Russian regime. Otherwise, even if reinforcements defeat the Russians, it’s meaningless. Russia will just keep sending troops. It will be like the Crimean War all over again. As long as the resources are there, the Tsar will always have more soldiers. The War Department recommends inciting France to expand into Central Europe or encouraging Austria to unify the German states to inflame tensions between France and Austria and spark a continental war.” This may not be the ideal solution, but it is the most effective one. Simply trying to provoke conflict among European nations will not work. Their leaders are not fools. The best way to trick someone is through self-interest. If the benefits are great enough, a conspiracy becomes an open strategy. It may be obvious, but it is still irresistible. Foreign Secretary George warned, “Allowing France and Austria to pursue their ambitions might solve our current problems, but what about the consequences? Once one of them wins, we will have a new continental hegemon. If France wins, we might still be able to rally Europe into a new anti-French coalition. But if Austria wins, we do not have the means to create an anti-Austrian alliance.” Strength matters in geopolitics, but other factors must also be considered. European states are not mindless pawns and will not simply follow blindly. If France expands into Central Europe, it will trigger fears of a second Napoleon. With the right framing, other nations could be rallied to oppose them. But if Austria wins and unifies Germany, that is a different story. After all, the Holy Roman Empire did exist. A restored version would not be seen as an invasion. As long as the Austrian emperor spares the smaller German states, the rest of Europe will not feel too threatened. To the small nations, it doesn’t matter who becomes the continental leader. None of them will hold that title. As long as their own interests are not harmed, they will not fight back. Edward Stanhope smiled and said, “You worry too much. France and Austria are both powerful countries. Neither will easily win. Once this war begins, it will drag on for years. Regardless of who wins or loses, both will suffer greatly. The winner might claim the title of continental hegemon, but the loser will not be destroyed. If we intervene at the right moment, even the defeated side will remain a major power in Europe. Fueled by hatred, the rivalry will continue for a long time. If France wins, the continental balance becomes Russia and Austria versus France. If Austria wins, it becomes France and Russia against Austria. After hundreds of thousands or even millions of casualties, all they will gain is a hollow title of continental dominance. There are no real winners. Besides, do you not think France and Austria are becoming too powerful? If this continues, even the Royal Navy might be at risk.” This is also why both France and Austria are being cautious. Beating your opponent is one thing. Destroying them completely is another. Neither side can fully conquer the other. Even if a government is toppled, a new one will emerge. The rivalry will not disappear. Unless they resort to ethnic cleansing to solve the problem permanently. Unfortunately, it is already the 19th century. Such actions might still happen in the colonies, but on the European continent, other nations would surely intervene. Neither France nor Austria has the power to fight all of Europe on their own. Naturally, they must be cautious. Otherwise, both will suffer, and only the bystanders will benefit.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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