Holy Roman Empire Chapter 743 - Surging Undercurrents

        

[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]

        War is not something that can be waged on a whim. Before the troops move, supplies must come first; before war begins, diplomacy must be in place.         The fragmented political landscape of the European continent made diplomacy crucial.         Austria was not yet confident enough to take on all of Europe at once, which made diplomacy even more essential.         Austria did not need every country to support its war, ensuring that most of them did not oppose it would be enough.         The smaller nations were of little concern as most were opportunists swaying with the political winds. To them, Austria was already strong, and becoming a little stronger wouldn’t make much of a difference.         As long as their own interests weren’t harmed, even if they were displeased, they would do nothing more than issue a few verbal condemnations.         The real powers that mattered were the three major players—Britain, France, and Russia. The weaker great powers, such as Spain, the distant Nordic Federation, and the neighboring German Federal Empire, barely counted as a third of a vote.         Securing these countries’ positions was now the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ top diplomatic priority.         Foreign Minister Wessenberg analyzed the situation, “The turmoil across Europe works to our advantage.         The French government is struggling with revolution and is too preoccupied to interfere.         If we offer to withhold support for the Italian independence movement and the French revolutionaries in exchange for France turning a blind eye to our actions, the chances of success are quite high.         Spain has always followed France’s lead in international affairs. As long as the French government does not object, they are unlikely to take a stand against us.         The German Federal Empire, even if it does not openly support us, will not oppose us either. We can play the nationalist card, emphasizing the historical animosity between the Germanic people and the Ottoman Empire. It won’t be difficult to gain their support.         The Nordic Federation is too far removed from this conflict, and their interests are not directly affected. Moreover, we have guaranteed a loan for them on behalf of Russia. If they still need our security assurances for that loan, they will not take a stance against us.         The biggest challenges are Britain and Russia. Securing British support is practically impossible. We simply don’t have enough interests to trade.         Therefore, our diplomatic efforts must focus on Russia. If we are willing to make certain concessions or cede portions of Ottoman territory to the Russians, the Russian government will likely accept the deal.”         The core of diplomacy lies in interests, and now it was time for another round of interest exchange. As long as the price was high enough, there was no one who couldn’t be bought.     Staring at the Near East map on the wall, Franz pondered for a moment before making a decision.         “If the Russians are willing to send troops alongside us, then the eastern border will be set at the Aras River, and the Anatolian Plateau will serve as the dividing line in the Anatolian Peninsula.         If the Russian government is unwilling to commit troops but only offers diplomatic support, then they will receive only the territory north of the Greater Caucasus Mountains. The Anatolian Peninsula will be off the table for them.”         There was no doubt that, regardless of the division plan, Austria would claim the lion’s share of the spoils. The idea of “equally splitting the Ottoman Empire between the two powers” was no longer on the table.         Reality was harsh. Interests were always proportional to strength. The price Franz offered was based on Russia’s actual capabilities.         In particular, the first option, where both nations jointly carved up the Ottoman Empire, seemed like a fair and reasonable deal on the surface, but in reality, it harbored hidden dangers.         A closer look at the proposed borderlines made it clear: as long as Austria and Russia remained on friendly terms, there would be no issue. But if relations ever soured, Russia’s territorial holdings would be riddled with vulnerabilities.         The Russian-controlled Balkans and the Anatolian Peninsula would be completely exposed to Austria’s military might, ready to fall in an instant.         This was dictated by both geography and power dynamics. Although these territories would appear to be contiguous with the Russian Empire, that continuity was only geographical.         Mountain ranges acted as natural barriers, making rail transport unreliable, meaning Russia’s logistical supply lines would rely entirely on the Black Sea.         The moment Constantinople was lost, Austria’s navy would enter the Black Sea, cutting off Russia’s lifeline.         Even if the Russians managed to hold Constantinople, it wouldn’t matter as their Black Sea Fleet would already be crippled.         Austria could simply advance to any Black Sea coastal port, deploy a fleet of submarines into the Black Sea, and achieve the same goal.         Modern warfare is all about logistics. The moment an army loses its supply lines, it becomes worthless.         In a way, this was a massive trap. If the Russian government poured more resources into these regions, their losses would only become more devastating.         …         Paris         Ever since news spread that European nations planned to hold an international conference here to jointly curb the spread of revolutionary ideas, the situation had spiraled out of control.         Hundreds of thousands of Parisians took to the streets, protesting against the government’s collusion with international reactionary forces in a conspiracy to suppress the revolution.         The voices of the protesters echoed clearly into the halls of the Palace of Versailles. Napoleon IV, once resolute, now looked utterly exhausted, as if he had aged twenty years overnight.         There was nothing he could do. Every day, crowds gathered outside, creating a relentless psychological torment that few could endure.         Deploy troops to disperse the protesters? It was useless. As soon as one group was driven away, another would take its place.         The most difficult part was that the protests were legal. As long as the demonstrators refrained from extreme actions, the government had no grounds to suppress them.         It wasn’t that Napoleon IV was committed to following the rules, he simply lacked confidence. He feared escalating tensions and dared not give the order for a crackdown.         So far, the French government had only taken action against extreme factions that had already launched rebellions, but the protesting masses were beyond its reach and too numerous to suppress.         According to incomplete statistics, at least one-third of the French population had participated in demonstrations in recent times.         Flinging the documents in his hand to the ground, Napoleon IV roared in frustration, “Can anyone tell me when this nightmare will end?!”         The emperor’s temper was growing worse by the day. This was something everyone around him could clearly feel. But no matter how bad his mood was, government affairs still had to proceed as usual.         Foreign Minister Terence Bourquin reported, “Your Majesty, we have just received word from Vienna. Austria is planning an invasion of the Ottoman Empire.”         Napoleon IV shook his head. “My dear Foreign Minister, trivial matters like this are for you to handle. There’s no need to bother me with them.”         “Austria invading the Ottomans” had now been reduced to a trivial matter. If that was the standard, then perhaps there would be no major events left in international affairs.         Gritting his teeth, Terence Bourquin pressed on. “Your Majesty, this time is different. This is not just any war. Austria intends to swallow the entire Ottoman Empire in one bite.

        If they succeed, they will essentially recreate the Eastern Roman Empire—minus Constantinople. The consequences for us will be severe.”         The consequences would indeed be severe. If Austria truly annexed the Ottoman Empire, the impact would be far more terrifying than a so-called “revival of the Eastern Roman Empire.”         At least in history, the Eastern Roman Empire had never extended into Central Europe, nor had it possessed a globe-spanning colonial empire.         Napoleon IV let out a bitter chuckle and shook his head. “Even if that’s the case, what do you expect me to do about it? In our current state, do you really think we have the ability to intervene?         Why don’t you go outside and tell the people: ‘To save the Ottoman Empire, we must send troops to fight Austria’ and see how they react?         As for Austria growing too powerful... let the damned British worry about that!”         Terence Bourquin hesitated for a moment but ultimately held his tongue. He still valued his life and had no desire to invite trouble.         In Paris, where anti-war and revolutionary sentiments ran high, if the government dared to send troops to help the Ottomans fight a war, it would be nothing short of forcing the people into revolution.         Since there was nothing they could do, they might as well let go. After enduring repeated harsh lessons from reality, Napoleon IV had matured, he had learned to be pragmatic.         …         As the days passed, the Paris International Conference drew closer, and tensions in the city continued to rise.         By evening, in a modest farmhouse on the outskirts of Paris, dozens of people had gathered.         A middle-aged man with a thick beard was the first to speak. “From the current situation, it seems the Bonaparte government has no intention of compromising.         If the Paris International Conference proceeds smoothly and allows these European monarchs to unite, our chances of revolution will only become slimmer.”         A scholarly-looking young man suddenly slammed the table. “We can’t wait any longer! Revolutionary ideas have already taken root in the hearts of the people. The citizens have suffered under the Bonaparte dynasty for too long! The time for revolution has come!”         Sensing the tension in the room, the meeting’s organizer quickly stepped in to calm him down. “Loff, speak properly. There’s no need to get so agitated.         We’re not fully prepared yet. Aside from having some influence within the National Guard, we haven’t had enough time to infiltrate the rest of the military.         Without the army’s support, attempting a revolution is nearly impossible.”         As harsh as it may be, this was the reality. Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun. Without military support, attempting an armed revolution to seize power was nothing more than a fantasy.         Young Nov countered, “Monsieur Favreau, you misunderstand the situation.         Revolutionary waves don’t come easily. The last time a revolutionary tide swept across Europe was in 1848.         If we miss this opportunity, no one knows when the next wave will arrive.         Without a favorable broader environment, no matter how well-prepared we are, we won’t be able to resist the counterattack from the coalition of monarchs.         At this point, we have no choice but to take the risk. If we wait until the Paris International Conference concludes and the monarchist alliance is solidified, it will be too late to act.”

[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]