The British are taking action, but other countries aren’t idle either, especially the four nations at the center of the whirlpool—Prussia, Russia, Poland, and the Ottoman Empire—who are working hard on diplomacy. In order to gain diplomatic support from European countries, the diplomats from these four nations have been as busy as bees, constantly shuttling between embassies. In contrast, the three countries also at the center of the whirlpool—France, Austria, and the German Federal Empire—seem to be asleep, with no visible movement. Hümmel knew that things were not as simple as they appeared. It wasn’t that they didn’t want to act, but rather that they couldn’t. The best strategy for Austria was to remain unchanged amid all the changes. He understood why the French were staying quiet as well. Thanks to the legacy of Napoleon’s formidable reputation, European countries remain highly vigilant of France to this day. In this situation, no matter how the French government played its diplomatic cards, European nations would not let down their guard against them. To annex the Rhineland, aside from Monaco, which is controlled by the French, any country on the European continent would oppose them. Small countries might be coerced or tempted to remain neutral, but what about the major powers? Even if France wanted to make a deal, it couldn’t afford the price. Since it was doomed to be a futile effort, why waste energy? What puzzled Hümmel was the German Federal Empire’s inaction. If they wanted to seize the Rhineland from under everyone’s noses, they would need European support. Were they simply leaving everything to the British, just waiting to reap the benefits? Do they think John Bull is doing charity work? Without sufficient interests at stake, why would Britain help for free? The German Federal Empire couldn’t possibly have no interest in the Rhineland. Securing it would greatly boost their heavy industry. To have no action at all, and trusting the British to handle it so confidently, weren’t they afraid of being betrayed by John Bull? After all, many countries had their eyes on the Rhineland. Besides the French, Belgium was another competitor. Normally, Belgium was too weak, only daring to think about it secretly. But with the backing of the great powers, the situation might change. The German Federal Empire could offer to buy the Rhineland, and Belgium could do the same. For the Kingdom of Prussia, it would be more beneficial to give the Rhineland to Belgium than to let it fall into the hands of the German Federal Empire. Belgium is also a little brother of the British. While giving the Rhineland to Belgium wasn’t the best option, as long as it didn’t fall into French hands, the British government could still accept it. Knowing that there were competitors, the German Federal Empire’s blind trust in the British meant there had to be some hidden secrets. Hümmel ordered, “Holst, send a telegram to Austria immediately, instructing the intelligence agency to find out the details of any secret dealings between Britain and Germany as soon as possible.” “Yes, Your Excellency!” replied Secretary Holst. ... The London Conference officially commenced on July 20, 1874. At the conference, Polish Foreign Minister Walery Wróblewski passionately condemned Russia’s invasion of Poland and presented three proposals to the international assembly: First: Condemn and sanction Russia for its invasion of Poland; Second: Demand the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Poland; Third: Require the Russian government to compensate the Kingdom of Poland for its war damages. Unsurprisingly, the Polish proposals received broad diplomatic support from the European nations, with many condemning Russia’s atrocities. Perhaps to further trouble Russia or for some other strategic calculation, British Foreign Minister Maclean, who chaired the conference, suggested a vote on the matter. The result was, of course, overwhelmingly one-sided. Out of the 16 nations participating in the conference: Britain, France, Austria, Russia, Prussia, Poland, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, Belgium, Greece, Monaco, Montenegro, the Nordic countries, and the Ottoman Empire—13 voted in favor of the Polish proposals. Austria and Montenegro abstained, while the sole vote against came from Russia itself. It was almost like a veto, as Russia’s opposition rendered the resolution null and void. Hümmel was puzzled. He had no idea what the British were playing at. This international conference had no binding power, and no related treaties had been signed between the countries. Other than embarrassing the Russian delegation, the vote had no real effect. Verbal support for Poland was easy, but expecting any country to send troops to intervene in this Russo-Polish War was unrealistic. Everyone might as well go home and rest! Hümmel didn’t doubt Britain’s ability to bluff, and if the British government were willing to spend big, they could probably persuade Prussia to fight. But for other nations? That was out of the question. Clearly, Britain had no intention of backing Prussia in a war. The costs and returns simply didn’t match up. If Russia were defeated, the Prussian government would likely default on its debts, and all of Britain’s investments would go down the drain. It wasn’t that the Prussian government wanted to default, but at that point, they really couldn’t pay back the money. War is a financial black hole, and from the last Russo-Prussian War, the Prussian government had repaid less than a third of its debt. If another war came, how could they pay? Even if they won the war and gained substantial spoils, those spoils wouldn’t be in cash. Most would be in the form of immovable assets and land, which couldn’t be quickly converted into wealth. In fact, due to the war, more funds would be needed to develop the newly occupied territories. For a long time, these new lands would contribute negatively to the treasury. Unless the British were willing to extend more loans, allowing the Prussian government to take on new debt to pay off old debt, the cash-strapped Kingdom of Prussia was bound to default. ... At the Vienna Palace, after receiving news of what happened at the London Conference, Franz’s face changed dramatically. The seemingly unremarkable vote actually concealed murderous intent. The Russians didn’t feel the impact because they were already isolated. Defying the European nations wouldn’t worsen their situation any further. But for any other country, things would be different. Ignoring the stance of European nations requires the capability to do so. There are only two countries on the European continent that do not fear antagonizing everyone. One is the Russian Empire, which is not burdened by debt and holds a geographical advantage. Its vast territory and harsh winters make the Russian Empire virtually unbeatable. The other is Britain, isolated across the sea. No matter how much other nations may dislike them, the English Channel and the strength of the Royal Navy ensure that no one can really do anything to them. For other European countries, trying to survive on the continent means they cannot afford to make enemies of everyone. Every time a nation opposes the rest of Europe, it moves one step closer to a crisis. Napoleon’s experience taught everyone this lesson: without a superior strategic position or the strength to take on all of Europe, it’s better not to play hero. Franz was certain that this British move wasn’t aimed at Russia. The declining Russian Empire wasn’t worth their trouble anymore. Apart from France and Austria, there was no third party worth the British scheming against. Now that the French government was still in internal strife, the possibility of causing trouble in the short term was small, so it was most likely aimed at Austria. Franz asked, “The British have made their move. What do you think our response should be?” Prime Minister Felix replied, “Your Majesty, it depends on what the British want. At the moment, there are few areas where we can be targeted, and even fewer where the British have something to gain. If they’re making moves now, they’re either trying to disrupt our German unification strategy or sabotage our eastern expansion plans. If it’s the former, they will likely start with the German Federal Empire. Nominally, our German unification strategy only has this last link left. However, the German Federal Empire is severely divided internally. Although it looks powerful, the strength it can exert is very limited. Even if they manage to unify the empire, they won’t win over the public in the short term. Trying to follow the Kingdom of Prussia’s path and escape the influence of German nationalism will not be a quick process. If the British are targeting the latter, then they’re likely trying to protect the Ottoman Empire. This doesn’t conflict with our strategic goals. After all, our plan is complete, and the Near East War already needs an excuse to stop. Right now, Britain’s primary goal is still to prevent France from gaining the Rhineland. Any action against us would be secondary. With the Anglo-French-Austrian alliance still in place, the British probably won’t go too far.” Was it really that simple? Franz doubted it. He didn’t believe the British would lay so much groundwork only to have such modest ambitions. Foreign Minister Weissenberg said, “I recall that two days ago, our embassy in London sent a telegram mentioning the German Federal Empire’s strange behavior, and we asked our intelligence organization to investigate any secret deals between Britain and the German Federal Empire. Given the current situation, it’s likely that there is indeed a secret deal between Britain and the German Federal Empire that is unfavorable to us. To avoid drawing our attention, the German Federal Empire has likely chosen to remain inactive. Of course, there’s a slim chance that the British are using this as a smokescreen, and the German federal government is merely playing along to mislead us. Breaking the deadlock is very simple. The German Federal Empire believes that annexing the Rhineland is a sure thing, so we just need to muddy the waters. Didn’t the Belgians previously express their intention to purchase the Rhineland? Let’s stir things up by pushing them into action. With an additional competitor for the purchase, I’m sure the Prussians will be pleased.” Even without knowing the British plan, Franz knew it was always a good idea to disrupt their preparations and muddy the waters. If Belgium stepped up, the British government would have to make a choice. It could only support one of its “little brothers,” and whichever one was abandoned would inevitably suffer damage to its relationship with Britain. After some thought, Franz made his decision, “Let’s encourage Belgium to act. But that pressure alone isn’t enough. At this point, secrecy is pointless. France and Prussia have probably already guessed Britain’s plan. Let’s be straightforward and inform them that we’ve allied with Britain to support the German Federal Empire in acquiring the Rhineland. Let Prussia and France get involved too. Let’s flip the table directly.”
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