The British government had run into trouble, but the outside world naturally knew nothing about it. In those days there were no satellites and no convenient online communication. Being able to roughly estimate a country’s industrial capacity was already impressive. Meanwhile, understanding the exact situation of every specialized sector was simply impossible. Even intelligence gathering had to start from within the British government itself. If the British government had not compiled statistics in advance, it was even less likely that anyone else could help gather such data. With such a major issue happening, strict secrecy was inevitable. Permanent secrecy was unrealistic, but keeping the news contained for a short period was still achievable. While the British were waving money around and buying everything in sight, the Russo-Japanese War had entered its most intense phase. Perhaps it was because they had learned from previous wars, or perhaps simply because the Russian navy was too weak, this time the Russian government behaved unusually rationally and refrained from launching yet another long range expedition. Of course, their official explanation was that they would settle accounts with the Japanese once the warships ordered from the Holy Roman Empire entered service. Whether anyone believed this or not did not matter as the Russians certainly believed it. The Russian army shed its usual reckless image and focused entirely on defense in the Far East. They relied on fortifications and strongpoints to slow the advance of the Japanese army and win time for the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railway. A decisive battle was out of the question. No matter how aggressively the Japanese provoked them, the Russians stayed inside their defenses. The Russian Empire had no shortage of land. Trading space for time was something the Russian government was not afraid of in the slightest. Unlike the original timeline, the butterfly effect caused by Franz had pushed everyone’s tactics to the level of the First World War. Machine guns, trenches, and mortars, these cheap, simple, and effective methods, had already become widespread in the Russian army. If not for their lagging logistics, the Russians might not have been forced into retreat at all. Everyone knew that when the Russian Bear fought in earnest, it was nothing to be trifled with. The Russian army’s stubborn defense made life miserable for the attacking Japanese forces. Anyone with basic military knowledge understood that attacking always resulted in far heavier casualties than defending. Even though Japanese officers and soldiers were more willing to risk their lives, that did not change the reality of higher casualties. In just half a year, total casualties on both sides surpassed three hundred thousand. Japanese forces suffered ninety-eight thousand dead and one hundred twelve thousand wounded. Russian forces suffered fifty-three thousand dead and sixty-four thousand wounded. In a certain sense, the Russo-Japanese War set a new record in modern warfare. It was extremely rare for the numbers of dead and wounded to be so close. Judging from the casualty figures alone, it looked as if the Russians had gained a major advantage, but in reality this was not the case. Although the Russians enjoyed the benefits of defending, they had to retreat repeatedly, during which another twenty thousand Russian soldiers were captured and thirty thousand went missing. Including these numbers, both countries ended up severely weakened. Neither side benefited. … In St. Petersburg, ever since the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese War, Nicholas II’s nerves had been stretched tight. As the first foreign war following his accession, the outcome of the conflict did not only affect the future strategy of the Russian Empire but also Nicholas II’s own prestige as monarch. Unlike his father and grandfather, who had been strong political figures, Nicholas II had only average talent in domestic governance. Of course, this was not his fault. During his youth he was physically weak and indecisive, and Alexander III never seriously considered making him the heir. Nicholas himself had not prepared to inherit the throne. After all, Alexander III had four sons and many options. Yet plans could not keep up with reality. Two of his brothers died young, and another let himself be swept away by love and made an unsuitable marriage. Before he could fully grasp what was happening, Nicholas had become the sole heir. To prevent the throne from passing out of the family line, he was pushed into the role and forced to accept the crown. Reality proved that a melon forced off the vine was never sweet. Although he was assisted by the old ministers left behind by Alexander III, the administrative efficiency of the Russian government still dropped noticeably after Nicholas II took the throne. After the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese War, this problem became even more glaring. Many times, the government planned one thing, only for the execution to turn into something entirely different. Because he lacked strong political skill, Nicholas II suffered a severe blow to his reputation shortly after taking the throne. Although he worked hard in later years to repair his image, the decline in his prestige as monarch could not be reversed. To change this situation, Nicholas II urgently needed a military victory to raise his standing in the eyes of his people and strengthen his control over the government. He could think whatever he wanted, but reality had a habit of slapping him in the face. The Japanese army, which he had assumed would collapse at the slightest pressure, displayed astonishing resilience on the Far Eastern battlefield. They did not halt their advance despite heavy casualties. Even that was not the biggest problem. If the Japanese were willing to throw lives into the fight, Nicholas II was not the least bit intimidated. After all, the Russian Empire had far more manpower than Japan. If the war turned into a contest of lives, Russia’s chances of winning were high, supported by a population three times larger. Unfortunately, wars are never decided solely by numbers. As the war dragged on, the situation gradually shifted in an unfavorable direction for Russia. Setting down the telegram, Nicholas II spoke coldly, “Lieutenant General Kuropatkin reports that strategic supplies in the Far East are running critically low. At the current rate of consumption and replenishment, our stockpiled supplies in the region will be completely exhausted in six months at most. How far along is the Trans-Siberian Railway, and can it be completed before our supplies run out?” Modern warfare is driven by logistics. The more advanced the equipment and the greater the firepower, the more dependent an army becomes on its supply lines. Compared with the original timeline, the Russian army’s equipment was much more advanced, and accordingly its logistical needs were far greater. Because the Russian government had failed to anticipate Japan launching a surprise attack without declaration of war, strategic supplies in the Far East were severely inadequate. And this was already with the Russians fighting a defensive war. If they attempted a full offensive, the rate of consumption would be even higher. Even with the homeland working at full capacity to deliver replacement supplies, the stockpile could last only six months. Clearly, the reserves had already reached a dangerous level. By this point in the war, no one was still shouting the slogan about riding into Tokyo within three months. Facts had already proven that the Japanese were not soft targets. Anyone with clear eyes could see that it was impossible to end the war within six months. Prime Minister Sergei Witte said, “We have already done everything possible to shorten the construction schedule, but completing the railway within six months still faces tremendous difficulties. The main problem is the climate. The weather in Siberia is simply too harsh. For now, we can barely manage continuous day and night construction, but once winter arrives, many areas will not even have the most basic conditions needed for work.” This was not an excuse. The Siberian winter truly was unsuitable for railway construction. Even if the lives of the French laborers were treated as expendable, the most basic quality of the railway still had to be ensured. No one expected the railway to last for decades like an ordinary line, but at the very least, it needed to hold up until the end of the war. Even such a modest requirement was not easy to meet. Precision was needed not only in the construction process but also in the materials used. To give a simple example, even the rails and sleepers had to be made from frost resistant materials. Otherwise, in temperatures dropping to minus fifty or sixty degrees, ordinary tracks would not survive.
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