The British are about to carry out reforms, and for most countries, this is truly an event worthy of universal celebration. “Reform” may not necessarily make a country stronger, but it will certainly make its government busier. The larger and older a state is, the more problems it will encounter during the process of reform. For Britain, a world power that has ruled for over a century, the issues it faces are naturally comprehensive. From the colonies to the homeland, there are too many historical problems that the government must find ways to resolve. It can be said that any single change will affect the entire system. Even if the British government only carries out partial reforms, that will still keep them busy for quite some time. History has already proven that once the British are occupied with internal matters, international disputes greatly decrease and the world becomes more harmonious. In fact, since the re-unification of the Holy Roman Empire, the frequency of British interference around the world has dropped significantly in recent years. With the Holy Roman Empire restraining them directly, most of the British government’s energy has been consumed, leaving them little time to meddle in the affairs of other nations. Now that the British government is preparing for domestic reform, it will have even less energy to cause trouble. For politicians around the world, this is great news since it means they can finally sleep peacefully for a few days. Although the world now has two major powers, only Britain has a habit of stirring up trouble. As for the other superpower, it is clearly focused on development and stability. One only needs to glance at international news to see that since the Holy Roman Empire established its dominance, it has done little besides supporting Spain in expelling the Japanese and organizing peacekeeping forces stationed in France. If not for the Habsburg double-headed eagle flag flying across the globe, people might have almost forgotten about this newly risen superpower. Of course, that only applies to ordinary people. Politicians dare not forget. The fact that it does not stir up trouble does not mean it lacks the ability to do so. Judging from how the Empire’s ambassadors constantly undermine the British, everyone knows this is not a power to provoke. Especially in the past two years, the Imperial Navy has frequently sailed its “super battleships” around the seas under the pretext of exchanging and learning experiences. It was obvious that using thousands of tons of ironclads and dreadnoughts for an “exchange of experience” was completely meaningless. If anyone claimed it was not meant as a show of power, no one would believe it. Everyone understood what was going on, but politics often requires pretending not to. When a great power comes for a “friendly exchange,” you have no choice but to play along. Fortunately, the Imperial Navy only made a brief tour to assert its presence and did not take the opportunity to engage in political blackmail, allowing everyone to breathe a collective sigh of relief. The final result, however, was that Britain’s efforts to win over allies became especially difficult. Although the Royal Navy still had the world’s largest total tonnage, it was already falling behind in the number of super battleships. There was nothing to be done since building warships takes time. The Holy Roman Empire’s first-generation super battleship Roma had already entered service in 1900, while the British had only just begun the research and development phase. After exhausting every effort, Britain’s own super battleship was finally commissioned in 1903. That was already an impressive performance. From the start of design to construction and final commissioning, the process took just over two years, fully demonstrating the strength of British shipbuilding. But that was of little use. At a pace of one ship per year, the Holy Roman Empire’s fourth super battleship had already been launched, and its entry into service within the year was virtually guaranteed. The Royal Navy’s lag was only temporary, yet the shock it caused to the world was tremendous.
A single step behind can lead to falling behind at every step. The naval technological revolution had already begun. Could the temporarily disadvantaged Royal Navy really catch up? Britain’s shipbuilding industry could easily outmatch that of every other nation in the world except the Holy Roman Empire. That was determined by the market and not by anyone’s will. The seed of doubt had been planted, and the long-standing belief in Britain’s invincibility had begun to waver. Since the outcome could no longer be predicted, no one dared to take sides hastily. It was not yet the stage of “either friend or foe,” and everyone could still afford to wait and observe the situation a little longer. While nations around the world felt relieved, Franz began to grow uneasy. The international situation had completely changed, and no one could be certain whether Britain’s reforms would succeed. In the original timeline, Campbell was elected Prime Minister in December 1905 and met his end in April 1908, serving for less than two years in total. With such a short term in office, it was clearly impossible for him to complete any major reform plans. Yet history still judged him favorably. Because of the butterfly effect, and under pressure from domestic economic decline and growing social tensions, all sectors of British society came to realize that reform was necessary. As a result, Campbell, the leader of the reformist faction, was elected in 1902. Being elected three years earlier meant that the reformists had three additional years to work with. For a nation, three years may not seem long, but it can change a great deal. Britain’s foundation remained strong. Once it resolved its internal conflicts and successfully integrated its colonies, it would still hold tremendous potential. With such a clear example before him, Franz could not be certain that the British would not attempt to follow the same path. If the British were provoked into imitating the Holy Roman Empire’s system of territorial partition, fully absorbing regions such as Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, they would once again become a true world empire. With such vast territories as a support base, even if Britain were to lose in the struggle for global dominance, it would still remain a top-tier power. The only fortunate thing was that England’s population was insufficient to digest such an enormous realm in the short term. Otherwise, Franz would have had no choice but to act in advance. … Frederick said, “Father, this is the new economic development plan drafted by the cabinet. Based on the previous five-year plan, it adds a new Western Economic Revitalization Program, which aims to invest heavily in developing the Ruhr Industrial Zone. I have studied it carefully. The Ruhr region is indeed well-suited for industrial development, especially in heavy industry. It not only has convenient transportation but also lies close to sources of raw materials. Once developed, it will become the industrial center of the western part of the Empire, playing a very important role in promoting the economic growth of the western regions. Most importantly, our heavy industries are too scattered across the Empire. Due to the distribution of industrial raw materials, there are more than a dozen heavy industrial centers throughout the nation, yet not a single true core. Before the Empire’s rise, such a dispersed layout helped enhance national security, so it could not be considered a mistake. But the situation is now different. We no longer have any enemies left on the European continent, so it is entirely possible to establish a core area to further boost domestic economic growth.” In the past, the idea of “revitalizing the western economy” would have been a joke. It has long been a clear feature of Europe that Western Europe has the most developed economy, Central Europe comes next, followed by Northern and Southern Europe, while Eastern Europe consistently ranks at the bottom. However, since the revival of the Holy Roman Empire, this situation has fundamentally changed. Eastern Europe remains at the bottom, and Northern Europe has seen little change, but the economies of Western Europe have been in steady decline in recent years. In contrast, the central and southern regions of Europe have become the most economically advanced areas in the world. Of course, the prosperity of Southern Europe applies only to certain regions. The Italian economy still shows little progress, and Spain fares even worse. There is still no clear consensus on whether these two should be classified as Southern European or Western European countries. The only thing that can be said for certain is that including them in Southern Europe lowers the regional economic average, while placing them in Western Europe raises it by a few points. The main reason lies in the aftermath of war. A single continental war destroyed France, once the economic pillar of Western Europe, and even the western territories of the Holy Roman Empire suffered heavy losses from the conflict. As for Britain, it is not a continental nation and is therefore excluded altogether. In order to marginalize the British, both the Imperial government and its media—whether in official documents, broadcasts, or newspapers—tacitly treat Britain as if it no longer belongs to Europe. After the Continental War ended, the Austrian government launched a Western Reconstruction Program. It was merely a reconstruction effort at first, not yet true development. The newly acquired western territories, limited by their small populations, showed little economic progress and became a drag on the rest of the Empire. It was not that the Austrian government made no effort to change this situation. The problem was that it had been busy rebuilding postwar infrastructure. As for developing the economy, that could only come after addressing population issues. Although the Holy Roman Empire had a large population overall, the Empire itself was vast, and manpower was spread thin. A large nation naturally has many “key projects.” In comparison, the western territories under reconstruction did not hold a high position within the Empire’s economic strategy. They could not compare with the African Circular Railway, nor with the petrochemical industry in the Middle East, and even less with the automobile and aviation industries at home. With a low strategic priority and a shortage of people, the western territories received only limited resource allocation. Encouraging migration there was unrealistic because too many other regions were competing for settlers. Located near the border, the western territories simply lacked appeal. To ordinary citizens, moving west and living next to the French was a daunting challenge. Who could say when another war might break out? In a sense, this was also the fault of the Austrian government, which deliberately downplayed reports on France’s domestic situation. Even when newspapers occasionally mentioned it, they did so in the mildest possible terms. Most people had no idea that the once-mighty French Empire had become a plucked phoenix. When a new cabinet took office, it was pressured by the “achievements” of its predecessors and dared not easily change course. As a result, progress stalled for years, and only now had they found an opportunity to act. The distribution of heavy industry across the Holy Roman Empire was indeed too scattered. It was not that Franz refused to centralize it, but that centralization was simply impossible. Many regions were suitable for developing heavy industry, but various natural and structural factors limited their potential. Take the steel industry as an example. The Empire had seven steel centers producing over one million tons annually, and even more that produced over half a million tons. Yet despite having so many centers, not a single one produced more than five million tons a year. In this era, such production capacity was still respectable. But in later times, even a small township enterprise could easily surpass it. It was not that the steel companies lacked effort; the real issue was the overwhelming influence of natural conditions. As production capacity increased, so did costs, and many steel centers had already reached the limits of existing technology. Given the Holy Roman Empire’s current level of development, its annual steel output of 28.78 million tons was clearly insufficient to meet demand. According to economic experts, within the next twenty years the Empire’s demand for steel would rise to 50 million tons. In theory, if the potential of all existing steel centers were fully developed, that demand could be met without further expansion. But theory is only theory. Society continues to advance, and the demand for steel grows with it.
Even the current estimate of 50 million tons was not set in stone. After all, the Holy Roman Empire was vast, and its potential needs were unimaginable. Judging from past experience, as long as the Empire did not decline, its future demand for steel would inevitably reach the hundreds of millions of tons. It was only a matter of time. Still, the future remains the future, and one must focus on the present. After taking the document and glancing through it, Franz slowly said, “This plan is too aggressive. I do not doubt that the Ruhr region can become a steel center producing ten million tons a year, but we must not forget that true production capacity is determined by the economic market, not by the government. The world economy is indeed booming right now, but we should not forget that Britain’s economy is already showing signs of trouble. The British government is currently implementing reforms. What if it withdraws from the free trade system? Once Britain erects trade barriers, many other countries will surely follow. Our exports will inevitably be affected. If this leads to an economic crisis, I would not be surprised. Can the market’s demand for steel remain this high in the short term? If we are unlucky and our new steel centers begin production just as another global economic crisis erupts, what then?” It was not that Franz was being overly cautious. The reality was that economic crises in the capitalist world had become far too common, occurring roughly once every ten years. It had already been several years since the last one. Starting construction on a major steel complex now meant that by the time it was completed and put into operation, even if it did not coincide directly with a crisis, it would likely be right on the edge of one. When massive overcapacity eventually erupted, the domestic steel industry would be thrown into chaos, with countless enterprises collapsing under the pressure. What made it worse was that most of the Holy Roman Empire’s steel industry was either government-funded or controlled by royal conglomerates. Private capital rarely touched such high-investment, long-term ventures. Destroying one’s own industries with one’s own projects would be sheer folly. Even if such development were necessary, it should proceed gradually. For example, starting with an output of one million tons and increasing capacity in step with market demand. In this respect, the current cabinet had not shown the same level of prudence as its predecessor. If the goal were merely political achievements, the previous administration could have easily done it already. The fact that they did not had proven their restraint. Building a steel center was not a difficult task. Once the basic conditions were in place, all that was needed was to pour in enough money. Even though the current cabinet’s judgment seemed less refined, Franz did not intend to replace them. Geniuses were always few, and most people were simply average. The fact that this government had maintained stability for years, continuing the previous administration’s policies without major upheaval, already showed that it was steady and reliable. Although its outlook was not entirely comprehensive, the plan itself was not fundamentally wrong. If the project were divided into stages and the construction pace slowed down, there would be no real problem. Ironically, the biggest issue with this plan lay in its “efficiency.” The Austrian government intended to complete it within five years. Upon hearing Franz’s explanation, Frederick was taken aback and reacted, “Britain withdrawing from the free trade system? That’s impossible! The free trade system was Britain’s own proposal, and when the treaties were signed, the British government made public commitments before the entire world.” As the times progressed, the economies of the capitalist world became increasingly interconnected. If Britain were to withdraw from the free trade system, the global economy would undoubtedly experience turbulence. Given John Bull’s usual tendency to harm others even at his own expense, once the British decided to withdraw, they would almost certainly take measures to bring down the entire system rather than allow the Holy Roman Empire to continue enjoying the benefits of the free trade era. Such a blow would have a major impact on the Holy Roman Empire’s economy, causing a sharp contraction in market demand for steel. In this context, launching a new steel complex with an annual capacity of ten million tons was clearly ill-timed. Franz rolled his eyes and explained, “There’s no such thing as impossible. For the British, credibility doesn’t mean much. Once they realize that something no longer serves their interests, tearing up the free trade agreement becomes inevitable. The only reason they haven’t done it yet is because of ongoing internal struggles. For a long time, Britain has been the greatest beneficiary of the free trade system, and thus an entrenched interest group has formed around it. Now that the system has turned disadvantageous to them, these vested interests naturally oppose any attempt to leave. If you’ve been following the London newspapers, you should have noticed the growing debates about free trade, with supporters and opponents already at each other’s throats. Public argument is only the beginning. It won’t be long before Parliament itself takes up the issue. Campbell’s campaign manifesto even mentioned the question of free trade. Although he didn’t openly call for its abolition, his speeches hinted at providing export subsidies for certain industries. All of these are signals. As Britain’s economy continues to deteriorate, those vested interest groups won’t be able to hold out much longer. If the British government doesn’t want to see its domestic manufacturing sector completely crushed by ours, it’s only a matter of time before they adopt trade barriers. For Campbell, withdrawing from the free trade system is far easier than carrying out internal reforms. Judging by the current situation, this will happen within two years. We should start preparing now, so we aren’t caught off guard when Britain makes its move.” Discussing an issue for two years may seem excessive, but for the British Parliament, it was standard procedure. Withdrawing from the free trade system was a monumental decision, one that concerned the very fate of Britain itself. Careful deliberation was only natural. Compared with the forty-five-year-long Brexit debate of later generations, reaching a decision within two years could actually be considered remarkably efficient.
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