“France has surrendered!” Once the news spread, the whole of Europe erupted in excitement. Although the anti-French coalition had been advancing triumphantly all along, and many had already predicted France’s downfall, people were still stunned by this announcement. The main reason was that the French surrendered far too quickly. According to mainstream opinion, most believed that France could hold out until the end of 1892. Some optimistic voices even estimated they might last into 1893. For ordinary people, the war ending early was naturally good news. Without any need for government organization, the public spontaneously held celebrations. Except for the French, the people of Europe were all immersed in the joy of victory. At the Hofburg Palace in Vienna, Franz immediately became busy once the Continental War ended. Although contingency plans had been made in advance, politics is fluid and requires constant adjustment to real circumstances. At the very least, the messy power struggles inside France had gone far beyond Franz’s expectations. Had it not truly happened, who would have believed that a scene fit for a novel could actually occur in reality? Setting aside the documents in his hand, Franz rubbed his forehead in frustration. “Does the French revolutionary government now have the ability to control France?” “Unlikely!” Foreign Minister Wessenberg analyzed, “France’s situation is far too chaotic. The so-called French revolutionary government is merely a government in name. They do not even have firm control over Paris itself, let alone the rest of the country. Neither Napoleon III nor Napoleon IV were ordinary men. During their thirty to forty years in power, the Bonaparte dynasty firmly rooted itself in France. Although the dynasty has now been overthrown, the local officials loyal to them have not been purged. These men refuse to recognize the authority of the French government. Some regions have even raised the banner of autonomy, openly denying its legitimacy. The arrival of coalition forces on French soil has only further weakened the revolutionary government’s authority, making it even harder for them to gain control over the nation.” The revolutionary government was unable to control the entire country and could collapse at any moment, which caused the Austrian government’s carefully prepared plans to fall apart. Signing a treaty did not mean the matter was settled, what mattered most was implementation. Without question, the French revolutionary government, which lacked control over the provinces, did not have the capacity to enforce its authority. “If we withdraw our army, is it possible that a civil war will break out in France?” To be honest, Franz himself did not fully understand France. In the original timeline, France also had three major royalist factions coexisting with the revolutionaries, and none of them had the strength to overpower the others. Under normal circumstances, with such a political landscape, the slightest spark could have triggered civil war. However, in the original timeline, the French quarreled endlessly, yet managed to confine the conflict to politics rather than letting it escalate into open warfare. Over time, during those long years of disputes, the rising bourgeoisie eventually became the victors, gradually taking power and ending the old aristocratic system. Wessenberg shook his head and said, “In theory, it is possible, but the situation in France is somewhat unique. After so many years of change, the lines between the three main royalist factions are not so clear anymore. If events continue to unfold, the most likely outcome is that the royalists will overthrow the revolutionary government and then establish a new one.” Franz did not need any further explanation, he understood. The messy affairs of the nobility were tangled beyond resolution. Over the past century, the nobles of France’s three great royalist factions had intermarried countless times. They were already so intertwined that it was impossible to distinguish one from the other. In such circumstances, the identity of the royalists shifted constantly. Today they might support the Bonapartes, tomorrow the Orléans. Apart from a handful of diehard loyalists, the rest simply chose their stance according to their interests. So, when faced with a revolutionary government that was not their own, they were the first to abandon it. The bourgeoisie in the original timeline might have managed a reversal of fortunes, but that did not mean the current bourgeoisie would achieve the same. Napoleon IV’s last desperate strike before his flight had gravely weakened them, and the financial bourgeoisie in particular suffered devastating losses. Stripped of their “money power,” the bourgeoisie became little more than paper tigers. To exert real influence in politics was not something that could be done overnight. Without these troublemakers meddling, Franz himself could not clearly see what the future of France would look like. In any case, once the armistice was signed, the days of the French revolutionary government were likely numbered. Against a pack of seasoned old foxes, the fledgling revolutionaries were far too inexperienced. Chancellor Karl said, “If France cannot regain stability, then we must prepare for a long-term occupation. It is easy to imagine that for quite some time to come, France will not know peace. Uprisings will break out one after another, and France might well turn into a quagmire. For this war, we have already sacrificed too much. Now it is time for our allies to pull their weight. Taking all the benefits without lifting a hand, how can such a thing be tolerated?” That last remark was aimed squarely at the Russians. Though the Russian government had indeed made an effort, the French had surrendered too quickly, and the Russian army arrived too late. Austria had already staked heavily on securing Russia’s favor. No less than twenty percent of the war indemnities had been promised, and such a prize was never easy to claim. The Russians had contributed nothing to the war. Even if there had been a prior agreement, Austria could still delay its obligations, pushing the payment of indemnities to the very end. Unless the Russian government was willing to wait a century or two, there was no way it could refuse Austria’s perfectly reasonable demand. For the Austrian government, stationing troops in France was a thankless burden, but in the eyes of the Russians, it was another matter entirely. If word of this spread, many Russian soldiers would surely clamor to enlist. It might be a little dangerous, yes, but the rewards were considerable! Compared to the frozen wastelands of the Russian Empire, France was a land of wealth. Skimming even a little profit there was far better than gnawing on husks and chaff at home. Franz agreed and said, “The Foreign Ministry will open talks with our allies. We’ll organize a peacekeeping force and decide troop assignments according to the situation. Aside from the grievously weakened Belgians and the German Federation, who may choose freely whether to send forces, every other nation that wishes to claim a share of the spoils must contribute troops to the peacekeeping effort. And the French navy must also be dealt with. No doubt the British are already anxious. If we delay any further, the British government may do something foolish again. Divide the French fleet into one large share and several smaller lots. Bundle the capital ships with the auxiliaries and auction them off together. Invite the world’s powers to bid, and we’ll join the competition as well. If the British want this fleet so badly, let them pay for it!” Franz had made up his mind. Since enmity between France and Austria was already sealed, he might as well see the matter through to the end. Exploiting France’s postwar instability, he would dispatch peacekeepers to drain the government’s resources further. Without money, how could they hope to build an army? And without a strong army, what chance did they have of rising again? … All across Europe, celebrations rang out in honor of victory in the war against France. Only Downing Street remained untouched by festivity. Watching the parade in the distance, its banners fluttering in triumph, Gladstone found the sight especially grating. The British government had indeed spoken highly of the campaign against France, but that was mere political necessity. It did not mean they were willing to accept the outcome. Politicians and the common people rarely spoke the same language. The government feared that France’s defeat might upset the balance of power on the continent, while the British people longed to see the French brought low. As for the consequences of France’s fall, the people viewed them with easy optimism. With their greatest enemy gone, wasn’t that cause enough for celebration? A new threat? Nonsense. No one truly felt it. In all the long centuries past, Austria had never once posed a danger to Britain. Even when the Habsburgs had ruled Spain, they had been too preoccupied with civil strife at home to trouble themselves with the island across the sea. Was Austria so fearsome? Was it more fearsome than France? Napoleon himself, for all his vaunted power, had been crushed. Austria had not united the continent under its banner. Why, then, should there be panic? Drawing the curtains and sinking back into his chair, Prime Minister Gladstone let out a weary sigh, “It seems the French tragedy was destined from the beginning. Too many longed for their misfortune, and too few were willing to stand at their side. To be frank, if France’s defeat had not shattered Europe’s balance, I might have joined the celebrations myself.” Yet beneath that sigh lay a trace of sorrow, the grief of the fox at the hare’s death. France had few friends, but Britain’s fortunes were little better. Without the British Channel’s protection, Britain’s fate might not differ much from France’s. And now, even that narrow strip of sea no longer felt entirely secure. After venting his frustration, Gladstone asked, “Well then, how is it? Will the anti-French coalition accept our mediation in this war?” George shook his head and said, “Unfortunately, both Russia and Austria have explicitly refused. You know as well as I do that the remaining countries are fence-sitters. There is no chance they would confront Austria, the new hegemon, over this matter.” Gladstone almost roared, “Have the Russians gone mad? If Austria is not kept in check soon, the future of the European continent will have nothing to do with them!” George countered, “Prime Minister, do you still believe Russia’s strategic focus lies in Europe?” It was a painful question. From the actions of the Russian government, it was already evident that Russia’s strategic priorities had shifted to the Indian subcontinent, though most preferred not to admit it. After a moment of silence, Gladstone took a sip of coffee and slowly said, “Then it seems all of our previous plans have failed.” In Europe, Britain sought to curb Austria. In Asia, it contended with Russia over India. Britain now found itself struggling alone against two great powers at the same time. Against this backdrop, the notion of provoking conflict between Russia and Austria was little more than a joke. By force of circumstance, Britain had become the very factor holding the Russo-Austrian alliance together. George shrugged, “It is not a complete failure. Austria has not seized the French warships outright, but instead plans to auction them. Perhaps it is due to financial strain, being unable to maintain so many ships; perhaps internal quarrels over the spoils; or perhaps a wish to avoid another naval arms race with us. In any case, our objective has been half achieved. It is said that the anti-French coalition intends to invite all independent nations of the world to take part in the auction. If we wish to prevent Austria from acquiring the French warships, we had best join as well. But there is a risk. If Austria truly cannot afford to keep so many ships, and we enter the bidding, we may simply be taking the burden off their hands.”
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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