Tokyo After receiving news that Austria had intervened in Philippine affairs, Emperor Meiji urgently convened an imperial conference late into the night. There was no other choice. Such was the deterrent power of a top-tier great power. Like most ordinary people of the time, Emperor Meiji also suffered from a fear of the Western world. Even just confronting Spain made him feel anxious. Now that Austria had joined the picture, things were truly becoming unmanageable. Although the southward strategy had so far progressed smoothly and the Spanish had proven even more inept than expected, with the Japanese army occupying nearly half of the Philippines in just over a month, the results, while impressive, were only surface-level. The reality was that Japan’s swift advances had merely caught Spain off guard. In terms of overall national strength, Spain still surpassed Japan. No matter how successful the Meiji Restoration had been, it had only been ongoing for a little over twenty years. It could not compare to the century-long accumulation of power held by the old European empires. That said, the Japanese government had its own advantages. Japan was closer to the battlefield, its military was more capable, and its morale significantly higher. Having a military edge did not guarantee a total victory. As the first non-Western nation to challenge a white power, Japan had fallen completely behind on the political and diplomatic fronts. It was fighting alone, with not even a single voice of support. In many ways, it was more isolated than even France. In contrast, Spain could at least count on sympathy from the European world. Foreign intervention had become the greatest risk in the southward campaign. Even a small movement from Austria, however trivial it might appear, could not be taken lightly by Emperor Meiji. Itō Hirobumi analyzed the situation and said, “Your Majesty, there is no need to worry. Austria is currently preoccupied with the continental war and likely has no serious intention of intervening in Philippine matters. Our southward advance is under the banner of British and French invitation. It is natural for the Austrians to be cautious. It just so happened that the overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia sought their help, and Austria seized the opportunity to test the waters and assess whether we intended to continue expanding southward. General Yamagata Aritomo handled it very well. He chose to back down decisively and avoided any direct conflict. Now the Austrians should be at ease.” There was no avoiding deeper reflection. The Japanese army had entered Southeast Asia under the pretext of British and French invitation, but to the outside world, it was obvious they were aiming for the Austrian Southeast Asian colonies. Although the Japanese government later offered an explanation, it still stirred Austrian discontent. After all, the great powers were known for having tempers. It was perfectly normal for them to throw up some minor obstacles or retaliate in small, spiteful ways. General Ōyama Iwao demanded, “Itō-kun, this is a national disgrace for the Empire of Japan. How can you say it was well handled? Today Austria shows up and we retreat. Tomorrow it will be Britain and France. Are we supposed to back down again? One retreat leads to another. This is exactly how the ambitions of great powers are enabled. If we do not learn to say no to them, the Empire of Japan will never truly rise. Forget about testing the waters. Austria has never taken us seriously. The Austrian government would not even bother with such calculated moves. To me, this was most likely just the personal act of a diplomat. We do not even know if the Austrian government is aware of what happened. Austria is not yet the dominant power in Europe, and they already act so overbearing. If they win this war, are they going to force us out of the Philippines entirely? I propose we ignore Austria’s unreasonable demands and respond with firmness. Let the world see that we have a resolute foreign policy. The European war is raging so fiercely that Austria has no capacity to push us into the opposing camp. No matter how far we go, they cannot come after us right now.” Having missed out on the position of supreme commander and relegated to the General Staff for strategy planning, Ōyama had already been suppressing his frustrations. What made things worse was seeing how the grand strategy he helped design was completely distorted once it reached the front lines. Faced with Yamagata Aritomo, the Japanese Army’s most senior elder statesman, Ōyama had no choice but to endure in silence, though his anger had long been simmering. Now that this incident had come up, he could no longer hold back. Moreover, his identity demanded that he adopt a hardline stance. Without it, how could he maintain authority within the army? And truthfully, his analysis was not wrong. In the short term, Austria indeed had no capacity to worry about Southeast Asia. No matter how extreme Japan’s actions might be, Austria was in no position to immediately retaliate. As for any reckoning afterward, couldn’t they just find a strong backer? The Royal Navy was at its peak, and as long as the British refused to go along with it, Austria would struggle to carry out any meaningful retaliation. Itō Hirobumi rubbed his forehead. This kind of well-reasoned rebuttal was the most troublesome to deal with, especially since he had no desire to offend Austria. The Japanese Army had studied under the French and carried an almost irrational confidence in France, but Itō Hirobumi, as a politician, saw things differently. The European war was massive in scale. While the combat strength of troops mattered, what counted even more was the overall strength of the nation. To many politicians, the moment the war had settled into a stalemate, France had already lost. And just as Itō was tangled in thought, a shocking piece of news arrived. “Your Majesty, we have just received a telegram. Russia has declared war on France!” Emperor Meiji lost all composure. He grabbed the telegram straight from the aide’s hands and quickly read through it. Though no one yet knew what had happened, it was immediately clear to everyone that the argument they had just been having no longer mattered. From the moment Russia entered the war, France had no hope of turning the tide. There is a world of difference between a likely victory and a guaranteed one. When there was still a chance that Austria might not win, there were those who dared to gamble. Now that the outcome was nearly certain, no one could afford to ignore the will of the future European hegemon. … London Just as George disembarked, returning empty-handed, he was hit with dreadful news. There was no time to rest. He rushed straight to the palace to attend a Privy Council meeting. The situation had escalated to such a degree that even Queen Victoria, who rarely involved herself in politics, could no longer remain idle. At that moment, the aged Queen Victoria trembled as she questioned them, “According to all of you, the monarch should not interfere in politics. These past years, I have kept my distance and rarely asked questions. Affairs of the Empire, large and small, have been left to your care. But can anyone explain to me how the international situation has reached such a point?” The struggle between royal and ministerial authority was nothing new. The world knew Queen Victoria rarely intervened in political matters, but few understood that this was the outcome of a long power struggle. Since the death of Prince Albert, Queen Victoria had lost her strongest political ally and gradually found herself outmatched in the battle for influence. Still, Queen Victoria was no fool. Seeing that she could no longer suppress the cabinet, she decisively chose to retreat in order to advance. On the surface, she reduced her involvement in political affairs, but in reality, she maintained a firm grip on royal authority. She allowed her ministers to exercise power, but the right to reclaim it remained with the Crown. This was also why her successor, Edward VII, was able to restore the power of the monarchy. The authority had never truly left the hands of the royal family, it had merely gone unused. In contrast, later British monarchs were not so fortunate. When George V relinquished political power, it was lost for good. Faced with the Queen’s stern question, everyone bowed their heads in silence. They all knew a crisis had arrived. This was not only a crisis for Britain, but also for themselves. If this situation were mishandled, their political careers would be over. As the one directly responsible, Foreign Secretary George braced himself and stepped forward to explain, “Your Majesty, Russia’s declaration of war against France was completely unexpected and defied all logic. In recent years, Austria has developed too rapidly. We had no time to curb its rise before it became a colossus. The main cause of this misjudgment lies in a long-standing misconception held by successive governments that Austria was not a serious threat. Geographically, Austria is wedged between France and Russia, blocking France’s advance eastward and Russia’s advance westward. The seeds of crisis were sown from the beginning. In theory, the stronger Austria becomes, the more it should provoke hostility from both France and Russia. All we needed to do was give things a slight push from behind the scenes, and those two would naturally unite. Based on this assessment, we have always focused our attention on France and Russia. As you know, both have proven to be troublesome. The French are constantly stirring up problems, and the Russians went so far as to invade Afghanistan…” Before George could finish, Queen Victoria forcefully interrupted, “I don’t care whether it makes sense to you or not. The fact is, Russia has now declared war on France. This so-called strategy of relying on a Franco-Russian alliance to keep Austria in check is complete rubbish. It isn’t even worthy of being called rubbish. What’s even more absurd is that this continental war was instigated by your very hands. I still recall how you all swore with such confidence that the war would cause mutual destruction between France and Austria, weakening both our enemies. And what’s the outcome? You’ve only completed half the task. You’ve succeeded in weakening France, and if nothing unexpected happens, postwar France will no longer be a threat to us. Sounds great, doesn’t it? Britain’s old enemy has been neutralized, and you all get to be hailed as heroes of the Empire. But is that really what we need? Without the French, who will counterbalance Austria for us? Are we really going to count on the Russians? Can you truly be certain that their plan is to push westward and contend with Austria for dominance on the continent, and not to move southward and challenge us for India?” Whether it is the collapse of the continental balance of power with Austria becoming the new hegemon, or Russia’s invasion of India, both represent the greatest threats to Britain. Anyone with eyes can see that Russia’s declaration of war against France at this moment must mean that a deal has been struck between Russia and Austria. There can be only one hegemon in continental Europe. Austria already holds the advantage, and on this issue, the Austrian government certainly will not compromise. That leaves only one explanation: Russia has shifted its strategic focus. With the vast Siberian glaciers in the way, even if the Russians wanted to advance eastward, they simply could not manage it. At least, not without a railway. Without one, their ambitions cannot be sustained. The north is even less viable. The Nordic Federation is like a porcupine, and not even a particularly meaty one. Clearly, it is not a target that appeals to the Russian Bear. Looking around, aside from moving west to compete with Austria for dominance over continental Europe, the only remaining direction is south, to seize India. Once Queen Victoria began to unleash her fury, no one dared to provoke her. She was unstoppable at moments like this, and now was certainly not the time to get on her bad side. Offering explanations now would only seem like making excuses. What had happened had already happened, and whether it seemed reasonable or not did not change the facts. If someone thought it was illogical, that simply meant they were not thinking clearly. Perhaps she had said enough, or perhaps her age was catching up with her. After venting her anger, Queen Victoria eased her tone and asked, “Prime Minister, what do you plan to do next?” Personally taking charge was out of the question. The situation was a complete mess, on the verge of falling apart. The responsibility had to be borne by the current government. This was also the reason the Gladstone Cabinet had not yet been replaced. “Your Majesty, the Russian declaration of war came too suddenly. We have no idea what happened behind the scenes. Right now, our top priority is to figure out why it happened and then develop a focused strategy to keep France in the fight. The government has already begun taking steps. So far, we have persuaded more than a dozen neutral countries to support us in mediating the war.” It was true that these countries had agreed, but only under specific conditions. The British government had promised that the mediation would be led by Britain and Russia. The others would merely follow along, offering symbolic support. That was the only reason they had agreed to participate. Now that the situation has changed, even if those countries kept their promises, it would not make much difference. In this age, it is not the number of countries that matters, but the strength they bring to the table. Sending minor powers to mediate a great war might result in humiliation. When major powers act like bullies, not everyone dares to confront them. To say nothing of far-off hopes, no European country could be relied on. If the anti-French coalition issued even a mild warning, the others would retreat immediately. This weak plan was clearly not going to satisfy Queen Victoria. She responded coldly, “Is that so? Then may God bless Britain. Let us hope the French can hold out long enough for you to act.” The plan was flawed, but even a weak option was better than having no plan at all. Without a better solution for now, they would have to make do.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH) Support the translation and read more chapters at https://ko-fi.com/dragonlegion
[Previous | Table of Contents | Next]
Comments
Post a Comment