Paris Ever since the news of the Japanese sneak attack on the Philippines arrived, Napoleon IV had barely slept. No matter how one looked at it, the Japanese navy had entered Southeast Asia at the invitation of Britain and France. To secure passage, the British and French governments had repeatedly given the Spanish assurances. Now that this had happened, they were clearly responsible. In this age of the strong preying on the weak, promises were no different from empty talk. Under normal circumstances, Napoleon IV would not have cared about breaking his word with Spain. After all, Spain couldn’t do much in return. But this time was different. Unlike Britain, which remained on the sidelines, France was still stuck in the quagmire of the continental war. Even a weakened Spain could now pose a serious threat. How to placate the furious Spanish and resolve the diplomatic dispute had become the most urgent problem facing the French government. Forcing himself to suppress his discomfort, Napoleon IV asked, “So, what do the Spanish want?” Between nations, only interests were eternal. No matter what had happened before, as long as the benefits were sufficient, everything could be negotiated. As neighbors, France and Spain had plenty of historical grievances, but France had always been strong enough that Spain never dared to challenge it. The continental war had shifted that balance of power. France had committed all its forces to the war effort and no longer had the strength to keep Spain in check. For various reasons, Japan’s surprise attack on the Philippines happened to ignite the existing tensions between France and Spain. With Austria stirring up trouble behind the scenes, Spanish nationalists had erupted in fury. Under pressure from domestic public opinion, the Spanish government not only declared war on Japan immediately but also sent harshly worded diplomatic notes to both Britain and France. Foreign Minister Émile Flourens shook his head and said, “They haven’t said yet. Everything happened so quickly that the Spanish government hasn’t made a decision. What the Japanese did was far too outrageous, and it has enraged the nationalist forces in Spain. The calls for war are growing louder across the country. According to intelligence from our embassy in Madrid, the Austrians have already made contact with Spanish nationalists, and public opinion is turning sharply against us. The situation is very unfavorable for France.” Did Émile Flourens truly not know what the Spanish wanted? Of course not. The truth was, what the Spanish wanted, France either could not give, would not give, or simply wasn’t in a position to give. One look at the diplomatic note revealed everything. Spain had already laid out its demands. Their request for France to fulfill its promises which was expelling the Japanese and providing reparations was predictable enough. But the Spanish government had also made territorial claims. Not only did they demand the cession of French Morocco, they even wanted to renegotiate the border between the two countries. Such blatant opportunism left no room for negotiation. Émile Flourens had, of course, sternly rejected the proposal. Aside from the demand to expel the Japanese, which France could at least agree to in principle, the rest were out of the question. If the French government dared to concede on any of those points, a revolution would break out in the country. Yet, even that one “acceptable” demand was beyond France’s reach. The French Far East Fleet was locked in a standoff with the Austrian Navy. They had neither the resources nor the freedom to remove the Japanese. France couldn’t even threaten them diplomatically. If pushed too far, Japan might very well turn around and cooperate with the Austrians, which would spell disaster for French Indochina. This wasn’t paranoia. It was a real and terrifying possibility. If Japan offered to help Austria eliminate the French Far East Fleet, the Austrian government would have no reason to refuse. In a situation where nothing could be done, Émile Flourens, as any seasoned politician would, chose to play dumb. After a long silence, Napoleon IV finally spoke in a weary voice, “Tell the British… I accept their terms.” For a man determined to surpass his predecessors, this decision was nothing short of a surrender to reality. But there was no alternative. The unexpected turns of the continental war had left France unable to win on its own. Without compromise, there would be no full support from the British government. And without that support, France had no hope of victory. Yet agreeing to British terms also meant abandoning any claim to European hegemony. It meant giving up the right to shape the postwar international order. In that light, even if France emerged victorious, it would still have failed to achieve its strategic goals. The entire war would have been fought in vain. Still, better in vain than lost. Deep down, Napoleon IV had already made up his mind. Once the war was over, he would focus on rebuilding. When France regained its strength… then, and only then… he would return to settle the score. … 10 Downing Street, inside the government building. The Gladstone Cabinet was gathered in full, discussing the international fallout of Japan’s surprise attack on the Philippines and how Britain should respond. The First Lord of the Admiralty, Astley, declared sternly, “The Japanese are far too bold. They dare make fools of us. If we don’t teach them a lesson, every random upstart will think they can trample over us.” Anger wasn’t quite the right word. Frankly, the fate of the Spanish had never factored into Sir Astley’s considerations. To him, Japan’s surprise attack was merely a perfect stage for the Royal Navy to put on a show. In recent decades, the French and Austrians had aggressively modernized their fleets. As the dominant force in global naval power, the Royal Navy was feeling the pressure. Massive sums had been poured into this bottomless pit, yet with no real war to fight, many Members of Parliament were starting to grumble. Rumors were even spreading that the British, French, and Austrian navies were secretly colluding to fabricate maritime incidents and justify inflated naval budgets. Breaking these suspicions was simple enough, find an enemy and start a war. Britannia ruled the seas, after all. Most adversaries had long since been cowed into silence. Only France and Austria remained defiant enough to pose a challenge. But those two were off-limits. The balance of naval power between them was too close for comfort. A war could easily devolve into a costly stalemate, damaging both sides. The Royal Navy understood the stakes. Proving its worth was important, but not at the cost of Britain’s future. In contrast, the newly emerged Japanese were far easier to deal with. It wasn’t arrogance on Astley’s part as the Royal Navy really did have overwhelming superiority. If the Far East Fleet merely stirred, the Japanese Navy would be forced to scurry home in retreat. Foreign Secretary George offered a timely reminder, “Sir, the real issue isn’t the Japanese anymore. On the surface, this is just a war between Japan and Spain. But in reality, it ties directly into the European conflict. The continental war has reached a stalemate. Spanish involvement now has the potential to tip the fragile balance. Both Austria and France are vying for their support, but it appears Austria has made the more tempting offer. It’s Franz’s usual trick, generosity at someone else’s expense. This time he’s offering up French territory as bait. Word is, the Austrians handed over a map of France itself, promising the Spanish they could choose any portion they liked if they joined the anti-French alliance. Given the current trajectory, unless we intervene, the chances of Spain siding with Austria are very high. As for the Japanese, they’re just a flea. Swatting them would be easy, but it offers little strategic gain. Whether they exist or not, it won’t change Spain’s decision. And if Spain does align with Austria, we might need that flea to stir up some trouble for the anti-French coalition. For now, it’s best to keep them around.” Generosity at another’s expense still required skill. Austria could afford to do so because France and Spain shared a border. Thanks to their long and troubled history, the two countries were burdened with deep-seated animosity and unresolved territorial disputes. Under such conditions, it didn’t matter whether the Spanish government took the bait, the nationalists within Spain already had. France, on the other hand, could never make a similar offer. Even if they copied Austria’s playbook and offered up a map of Austria instead, the Spanish would refuse. There was only one reason: power. No matter how tempting the promise, if Spain didn’t have the strength to claim or control such a territory, it was meaningless. Given Spain’s current capacity, managing a distant enclave was far beyond their reach. Prime Minister Gladstone gave a nod and said, “The French have already caved. It seems their situation is even worse than we imagined. We can’t afford to wait any longer. We must act swiftly. If France loses a decisive battle in southern or central Europe, unlike Austria, they won’t have the resources to recover. The Foreign Office is to begin implementing our plan at once. Extend invitations to the European powers to form a mediation group and bring this pointless war to an end. But before that, we must first secure Spanish cooperation. If they agree to join the mediation effort, we’ll help them drive out the Japanese.” What appeared to be a casual exchange of words was, in truth, laced with peril and calculation. Britain’s limited land forces meant that any intervention in the continental war would require help from other nations. Yet none of them were foolish, each had their own priorities and national interests. If diplomacy and threats could resolve the issue, then all would be well. But if talks collapsed and military action became necessary, no country would be willing to commit the full strength of its army simply to maintain some abstract notion of continental balance, not without substantial benefit. Unless Austria demonstrated blatant aggression that made other governments feel directly threatened, it would take far more than a few days of negotiation to align Europe behind intervention. Foreign Secretary George gave a shrug and replied helplessly, “To pull this off, it is not something we can do alone. We also need cooperation from the French. Our ally is surrounded by enemies across Europe. There are plenty of nations that want to see them fail. Unless the French take concrete action to reassure other European governments, it will be very difficult to gain widespread support. Spain and Russia are especially critical. Both have enough influence to affect the outcome of this war. If either one joins the anti-French coalition, then our mediation efforts will lose their purpose entirely.” In this era of might over right, resolving international conflicts still depends primarily on strength. This includes not only military power but also political and diplomatic influence. Although Spain is in decline, its reputation remains largely intact. Among the nations of Europe, it is still considered a major power. On paper, it ranks just below Britain, France, Austria, and Russia, making it the fifth great European power and the fifth-strongest nation globally. The anti-French alliance is already powerful. If any additional major power were to join, it would become unstoppable. Most European states tend to follow the wind. Without enough certainty, they will not take sides easily. Without a strong coalition of smaller allies, there will not be enough momentum. The lack of force behind the coalition would weaken its deterrent effect. In such a situation, only the major powers can step forward and take the lead. The Anglo-Russian War has only just ended, and the animosity between the two countries is still at its peak. No one in their right mind would believe they could genuinely work together right now. Even if their national interests were completely aligned and their leaders were open to collaboration, their officials and officers would still find ways to sabotage the effort out of habit or mistrust. If France is eventually defeated, the balance of power across Europe will collapse. In a way, Japan’s actions have helped the British government come to a decision. To avoid a total loss of control over the situation, Britain must now give up its idea of waiting until the war ends to pick up the spoils. Instead, the government must act while the war is still ongoing and begin forming a coalition to intervene before one side achieves total victory.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH) Support the translation and read more chapters at https://ko-fi.com/dragonlegion
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So once again it's time to wait on Russia
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