When Franz received the news of Japan’s surprise attack on the Philippines, he almost couldn’t hold back his laughter. It was like dozing off and someone handed him a pillow. There was no doubt that the Japanese had done Austria a huge favor. For no good reason, they had dragged Spain into the battlefield, and now it was France’s turn to suffer. No matter how far the Spanish Empire had declined, it was still one of the great powers and certainly not the kind that would take a beating without hitting back. Even if the French insisted that Japan’s attack on the Philippines had nothing to do with them, they still needed the Spanish to believe it. After all, Japan’s passage through the Philippine Sea had only been made possible because Britain and France had vouched for them to the Spanish government. Without the backing of Britain and France, the Japanese wouldn’t even have been allowed to pass through the Philippine Sea, let alone dock for supplies. There was no such thing as international waters in this era. Each great power set its own territorial limits, and the stronger they were, the more aggressively they enforced them. Countries like Japan had no say in the matter. If Japan had declared its intentions openly, invading the Philippines would not have been easy. Landing alone would take days, and with no nearby supply points, all logistics would have to come from the home islands. Given Japan’s current national strength, launching such a long-range campaign would be a gamble. If they failed to end it quickly, they would be dragged down within months. To maintain his dignity and leadership in front of his subordinates, Franz quickly regained his composure and found an excuse to cover up his earlier amusement. “The Japanese entered Southeast Asia at the invitation of Britain and France. Now they’ve launched a surprise attack on the Philippines. The Spanish must be furious. Let’s find a way to push things from behind the scenes. We should try to direct Spain’s anger toward the French and see if any unexpected gains come from it.” Unexpected gains were practically out of the question. No matter how angry the Spanish were, at most they would take it out on the Japanese. As for Britain and France, they were untouchable. No matter what promises Austria made, it would make no difference. Politicians were shrewd. Everyone loves to add flowers to a brocade, but no one wants to offer help during a storm. Although joining the anti-French alliance at this point wasn’t exactly helping during a storm, it still carried enormous risk. France was no pushover. Despite suffering strategic setbacks, they were still holding their own on the European battlefield. Until victory or defeat was clearly decided on the Central European front, no one dared assume France couldn’t turn things around. If the French launched a sudden counteroffensive, Austria might be strong enough to withstand it, but Spain certainly might not. They had already learned this lesson once. During the last anti-French war, Spain had been on the winning side, yet still ended up losing half its strength and vast colonial territories in the Americas. Despite paying such a steep price, Spain hadn’t received much in return when it came time to divide the spoils, due to its limited power. Past experiences serve as lessons. Unless it was certain that France was finished, the Spanish government would find it hard to summon the courage to declare war. Foreign Minister Wessenberg analyzed the situation and said, “Your Majesty, the French will never admit that Japan’s surprise attack on the Philippines had anything to do with them. If nothing unexpected happens, they will soon cut ties with the Japanese altogether. And since Britain was also involved in vouching for Japan, the Spanish government, no matter how angry, will have no choice but to swallow their rage. Still, our efforts to steer the narrative are not without benefit. After suffering such a loss, the Spanish are bound to seek retaliation. If we can stir up anti-French sentiment at home, a Spanish embargo on France-bound supplies might very well be within reach.” It wasn’t a matter of admission. Any reasonable person could see that France could not possibly have ordered Japan to attack the Philippines at this time. If they pushed Spain into the anti-French alliance, France would end up fighting on all fronts. Whether to calm Spanish anger or to offer an explanation to the rest of Europe, the French had no choice but to distance themselves from the Japanese. An ally? They were clearly a liability. France was trying to gain allies to escape political isolation, not to provoke hostilities with the rest of Europe. Their earlier mass expulsion had already unsettled many European countries. If they now tried to seize Spanish colonies, they would find themselves completely unwelcome on the European continent. If seizing colonies by force were truly an option, Franz would have done it himself years ago. The only reason he didn’t was the fear of provoking widespread outrage. Instead, he chose to quietly carve out his own colonial holdings. Chancellor Karl added, “It’s not entirely impossible. If we can make the Spanish believe that we are sure to win this war, and offer them enough incentive, they might still take the bait. However, that wouldn’t be of much practical value. If Spain is only willing to join once we’ve already won a decisive battle in Central or Southern Europe, their declaration of war would come far too late. By that point, bringing them in would look suspiciously deliberate, and people might start questioning our motives. If our true intentions were exposed, it could easily spark another diplomatic storm. The British would never tolerate our complete dominance. The Russians would also not want to see us become the sole continental hegemon. And the rest of Europe certainly has no desire to see a new master rise over their heads. If we suddenly find ourselves at odds with every other country, the dream of weakening France would vanish entirely.” This was precisely why Franz had yet to order a full-scale offensive. Defeating France would only mark the end of the war. What followed would be an even fiercer diplomatic struggle. The premature end of the Anglo-Russian War disrupted the Austrian government’s previous strategic layout. The plan to completely dismantle France had now officially fallen apart. The most pressing challenge was how to divide the European powers and ensure Austria would take the lead in postwar negotiations. After much hesitation, Franz made his decision: “Mobilize our resources to lobby the Russian bureaucracy. We need to find a way to bring the Russians into this war. They don’t need to send troops. As long as the Russian government declares war on France, they’ll be entitled to a share of the postwar spoils. This must happen quickly. We have to act before the British make their move and create a fait accompli. If we’re too late, most of our strategic goals will be wasted.” Franz wasn’t being overly cautious. Given the current international situation, there was a strong possibility that Britain would form a joint mediation commission to intervene before the continental war ended. There was no need to doubt it. Every European country had a reason to get involved. No one wanted to see the rise of a new continental hegemon. If Britain and Russia led the way, such an alliance could be formed almost instantly. Collective action would shield them from blame, and Austria would have to think twice before attempting any retribution. Standing firm would be impossible. Even if the anti-French coalition led by Austria was strong on paper, once international intervention occurred, the alliance would crumble instantly. Franz wasn’t delusional enough to believe that those fair-weather allies would stand with Austria through thick and thin. Without the coalition, Austria would be left to confront the rest of Europe alone. Even in the best-case scenario, the odds would be no better than fifty-fifty, which would be no different from suicide. Especially since that fifty-fifty chance was based on the assumption that France had already been severely weakened. If France still had some fight left in it and the intervention happened, the situation would only grow worse. If military means were no longer viable, then it was time to turn to political ones. Whether through bribery or persuasion, getting the Russians on board would change everything. Although British politicians are famously thick-skinned, even they couldn’t shamelessly turn a country participating in the war into a mediator. Even if Russia realized what was going on later, the Russian government would at most try to undermine things from behind the scenes. No matter how much they stirred the pot, there was no chance they would send troops to protect France. Once Russia was on board, convincing Spain would be far easier. Just one look at the alliance and it would be obvious that France was destined to lose the continental war. With zero risk and high reward, there would be no reason to say no. After all, France and Spain had their own share of bad blood. Taking the opportunity to kick them while they were down would come without a shred of guilt. Franz had already made up his mind. Once Russia and Spain were roped in, he would move directly to pressure Switzerland into joining the war. There would be only two choices. Either stand with the anti-French alliance and embrace victory, or side with France and share its downfall. And that would be the end of it. With most of Europe now at war with France, there would be nothing Britain could do to convince everyone to give up their gains. At worst, Austria could just take a smaller share of the spoils and give more to its allies. Most of French Africa had already been carved up anyway, so Franz wasn’t overly concerned about a few reparations. Foreign Minister Wessenberg frowned and replied, “Your Majesty, persuading the Russians to declare war on France is no easy task. The situation is already becoming clear, and the Russian government doesn’t want to see France too greatly weakened. The more we push, the more likely they are to resist joining the war. In this context, we’ll have to act from the shadows. Even our pro-Austrian factions should not be used too aggressively. Only if the Russian government comes to believe that declaring war on France serves their own interests will they take the bait. And that is going to be very difficult.” On the surface, that was indeed the case. But Franz was unmoved. Although his butterfly effect had influenced Russian politics, the essence of the Tsarist regime remained unchanged. Greed was the defining trait of the Russian government. Coupled with their decaying bureaucracy, that trait only became more pronounced. “Then throw money at it! Spare no expense in bribing Russian officials and nobles. Sell them the idea that declaring war on France would bring enormous benefits. The Russian government is short on money, right? Well, if they declare war on France, they won’t have to repay their debts to the French. On top of that, they’ll get a hefty share of postwar reparations. No need to send troops. No need to spend money. Just a symbolic declaration of war is enough to claim all those benefits. I refuse to believe the Russians won’t be tempted.” In the Russian Empire, there was nothing that money couldn’t solve. And if there was, it simply meant not enough money had been spent. Honest officials may have existed, but in the Russian Empire, such people rarely survived. In a world so thoroughly corrupt, innocence itself had become a sin. No matter how shrewd Alexander III was, if all his ministers spoke in unison and said that declaring war on France would benefit Russia, it would be nearly impossible for him not to be swayed.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH) Support the translation and read more chapters at https://ko-fi.com/dragonlegion
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