“The French are getting desperate!” After receiving the news released by the French, Gladstone immediately came to this conclusion. It was true that Britain was at a disadvantage in the Afghan war, but the situation had not yet reached a point where the British government needed to panic. Even if the entire Afghan region were to fall, as long as the British main force on the front lines was not completely wiped out, the British Empire still had the confidence to win the war. The reason was simple. With money in hand, the backbone stays straight. The British Empire’s century-long accumulation was no joke. In terms of deep national strength, the Russians were no match. Foreign Secretary George analyzed, “The continental war has reached a stage where the French dream of a quick victory has already been shattered. From this point forward, the war will be a contest of overall national strength. France may have a strong army, but in other areas, their weaknesses are too obvious. Looking at the current situation, if the French cannot cross the Rhine and bring the war into the heart of Germany in a short time, they will lose all strategic initiative. What awaits them next will be Austria’s endless counterattacks. In short, the longer this war drags on, the lower the chances of a French victory. At the current level of intensity, they can last at most another two to three years before collapsing.” Clearly, George no longer had high hopes for the French. The gap in overall strength was simply too great. In a war of attrition, France was at a clear disadvantage. However, the reputation of the French military still loomed large. No one could completely rule out the possibility that they might turn the tide at a critical moment. After all, similar cases had occurred more than once in the long history of conflict between France and the Habsburg monarchy. After pulling out a document, Chancellor of the Exchequer Hugh Childers smiled and said, “Two to three years? Your Excellency, I’m afraid you’re overestimating the strength of the French. In my view, if there’s no outside intervention, it’s a real question whether France can even hold on until 1891. Let’s set aside the military issues for now. Let’s first look at the economic side and reassess France’s actual strength. This is data collected by the Treasury. In the past three months alone, the total import and export trade between us and the French has increased by 5.1 times compared to the same period last year. Among that, exports to France increased by 6.5 times, while imports from France dropped by 64.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of 64.86 million pounds. And that’s just our trade alone. If we include France’s trade with other countries, their total trade deficit in the final quarter of 1890 will not be less than 120 million pounds. If this war continues, the French foreign trade deficit will only keep growing. Especially with French Africa on the verge of collapse, once they lose that source of raw materials, France will need to import even more goods. In the past, the proud French always tried to push for currency dominance by promoting the franc internationally. As a result, they didn’t keep many pounds and guilders in reserve. At the current rate of depletion, their foreign exchange reserves will soon be exhausted. When that happens, they’ll be forced to trade in gold. And with their pitiful gold reserves, they won’t last more than a few days. And this is still an ideal scenario. The reality might be even worse. Since the days of Napoleon III, the French government has always operated under a financial deficit policy, piling up huge debts. Launching this war without proper preparation, I truly have no confidence in the financial stability of the French government.” Is France rich? Without a doubt, as the world’s third-largest economic power, France definitely qualifies as wealthy. However, France being rich does not mean the French government is rich. If the war front were progressing smoothly, the French financial groups would naturally offer full support. If not, things would be very different. The phrase “capital knows no borders” is no joke. If the situation becomes hopeless, capitalists will not go down with the government. War is a contest of manpower, resources, industrial strength, and ultimately, financial strength. Supporting multiple fronts at the same time, France is bearing pressure far greater than that of the World Wars in the original timeline. And without any allies to help share the burden, problems are only a matter of time. After glancing over the report, Gladstone asked in confusion, “Why has our trade surplus with France increased so much? I recall that the overall trade volume hasn’t risen by that much.” One must remember, the trade volume between Britain and France is quite large. A drop in French imports is understandable, since the French are at war and have no time to manufacture large quantities of goods for export. But for British exports to suddenly rise more than sixfold? That borders on fantasy. It simply doesn’t align with economic logic. Even accounting for war-driven increases in French demand for strategic materials, the jump is too exaggerated. They simply cannot produce enough. Even if capitalists work to expand production capacity, that takes time, and it has only been a little over three months. “Simple. The goods we’re exporting have all gone up in price!” Chancellor Hugh Childers replied calmly. He continued, “France and Austria are both scrambling on the international market for supplies, which has driven up the prices of nearly all goods to varying degrees. Strategic materials, in particular, have doubled in price compared to prewar levels. Some rare medicines have even tripled or quadrupled. And of course, our increased tariffs on French imports, along with those of other European countries, are also factors pushing prices higher.” Capitalists taking advantage of wartime conditions was inevitable. It was just that this time, they went a bit too far. However, with Austria also driving up prices, it seemed that doubling the cost wasn’t so hard to accept after all. Prime Minister Gladstone asked with concern, “What about Austria?” Chancellor Hugh Childers shook his head and said, “Quite the opposite of the French. Austria has very few import needs and is basically self-sufficient. Even in areas where they fall short, they import from Russia, so they’re relatively unaffected by the outside world. Prices may have risen, but the total trade volume between us and Austria has actually decreased rather than increased. Of course, the French navy’s blockade is also one of the reasons hampering our trade with Austria. In many cases, even if contracts are signed, they can’t be fulfilled.” Gladstone frowned. This result was completely different from what he had expected. Originally, he had hoped that France and Austria would exhaust each other through the war, thereby reinforcing Britain’s dominance at sea. But as always, plans couldn’t keep up with change. Britain did manage to squeeze France hard through this war, but Austria slipped away. No matter how much international prices soared, it didn’t have much to do with Russo-Austrian trade. After all, the Russian government was exporting industrial raw materials to Austria in exchange for strategic supplies. If prices rose, they would rise together. And since the cost was borne by the Russians themselves, they had no reason to hype up prices. In the end, France became the only true victim. It was easy to drive prices up, but much harder to bring them back down. After hesitating for a moment, Prime Minister Gladstone slowly said, “Let the Foreign Office open negotiations with the French. As long as the French are willing to offer benefits in return, find a pretext to reduce or even waive the tariffs.” This was the most assistance Gladstone could offer the French within his authority. Whether prices could be brought down or not would ultimately depend on the French themselves. After all, capitalists were not easy to deal with. If the government were to forcibly order them to lower prices, it would spark widespread resentment. Since it was the French government buying supplies and not the British, Gladstone had no reason to offend anyone on their behalf. Bargaining was something the French would have to handle on their own. How much they could achieve would depend on their negotiation skills. Foreign Secretary George said, “The Foreign Office has no issue with this. But cutting tariffs alone may not be enough support. If we want the French and Austrians to continue wearing each other down, we must find a way to enhance France’s economic strength or directly lend them money. At the same time as we provide economic support, we must also limit the French military’s strength. We can’t allow a power imbalance to form between the warring sides. Achieving that will be extremely difficult.” This cautious attitude reflected the true nature of the British government. On one hand, the war in Afghanistan was consuming most of their attention. On the other hand, they still needed to maintain the balance between France and Austria. They were terrified that any misstep could cause the entire situation to spiral out of control. It could be said that this was the most challenging moment the British Foreign Office had faced in decades. Prime Minister Gladstone nodded helplessly and said, “Let’s try it first. We can make adjustments later based on how the situation develops. Until both France and Austria have significantly depleted their strength, we must proceed with caution to prevent any loss of control.” … While negotiations between Britain and France were just beginning, far away in Saint Petersburg, Alexander III welcomed his newest toy, the airplane. Watching the elegant aerial formation performance, Alexander III was in an exceptionally good mood. High-spirited, he asked, “When can this batch of planes be deployed to the battlefield?” Enjoying the show was one thing, but Alexander III had not forgotten the real reason behind acquiring these aircraft. The European war had already proven that planes versus airships was nothing short of a massacre. To increase the odds of victory at the front, he was eager to see these planes enter service as soon as possible. Minister of War Ivanov responded, “Your Majesty, we still don’t have any pilots. Airplanes are not like airships, and they require much stricter qualifications for their operators. The Ministry of War has already reached an agreement with the Austrians. They will help us train a batch of pilots, and preparations are already underway. If there are no unexpected issues, our first squadron should be ready to enter service in three months.” To train a group of pilots in just three months meant they were certainly not going to be elite. But since the enemy was only using airships, there was no need to test pilots’ full skillsets. As long as they could fly the planes and launch attacks, that would be good enough. As for the rest of the necessary knowledge, the pilots could pick it up gradually through real combat. Efficiency was what the Russian military cared about right now, and faster was better. The moment Alexander III heard “three months,” the broad smile on his face vanished at once. “Why so slow? Can’t the process be sped up any further? The situation at the front is urgent. The sooner we deploy aircraft, the sooner we can seize control of the skies from the British!” Faced with the Tsar’s demand, Marshal Ivanov was inwardly crushed. According to the Austrians, managing to train pilots within three months was already quite an achievement. Any faster, and the already shaky crash course would become even harder to maintain in terms of quality. Ivanov braced himself and replied, “Your Majesty, pilots are a new technical branch of the military. We have no prior training experience in this field and must rely on learning from the Austrians. If we do wish to accelerate the process, I would personally suggest including airship pilots in the training program. That could save a significant amount of time.” Whether it was a terrible idea or not, Ivanov didn’t yet know. But since the Tsar had asked, he couldn’t just say nothing. As for whether it would actually work, that could be evaluated later. Since this was a new unit type and the Ministry of War was unfamiliar with its details, any misjudgment could be explained away.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH) Support the translation and read more chapters at https://ko-fi.com/dragonlegion
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