Saint Petersburg Upon receiving the peace signals released by the British, Alexander III let out a helpless sigh. This Afghan War could be described as starting strong but ending weak. For the Russian Empire, it began like a champion’s campaign but almost ended in a humiliating defeat. At first, with the cooperation of the Afghan guerrillas, the Russian army was crushing the British. But Afghanistan is far from an easy battlefield. As the front lines pushed forward, the logistical pressure on the Russian forces grew heavier. Compounding the problem, British reinforcements kept arriving. The Russians lost their advantage in numbers, and the situation on the battlefield gradually shifted. By now, the Afghan War had devolved into a war of attrition. Faced with the wealthy British, the cash-strapped Russian government clearly could not hold out much longer. Though the Russian army appeared to have the upper hand in Afghanistan, the Russian government was suffering in silence. So far, the Russian army had suffered nearly 500,000 casualties and spent tens of billions of rubles on the war. And yet, the fabled India remained out of reach. The loss of manpower was a relatively minor issue. After all, they had regained Central Asia, occupied three-quarters of Afghanistan, and even achieved a staggering casualty exchange ratio of 1 to 3.7. It was arguably the Russian army’s best performance in the past 50 years. Of course, this figure includes battles against Central Asian khanates and Indian colonial forces. In direct engagements with the British main forces, the Russian army still struggled to gain the upper hand. The numbers may be inflated, but that didn’t stop the Russian government from using them for political propaganda. In any case, the Russian army’s performance on the battlefield was enough to satisfy most audiences. What truly troubled Alexander III was the state of the treasury. Since his accession, the entire financial reserves of the Russian government had been poured into the war. Not only that, they had also racked up a massive debt. And worst of all, they had still failed to enter India. Had the Russian army already broken into India, Alexander III would have continued the war at all costs, even if it meant selling off everything. Unfortunately, reality offered no such opportunity. The British had recovered. In addition to deploying several hundred thousand troops from the homeland, they now had two million Indian colonial troops standing by as cannon fodder. According to intelligence from the front, British main forces rarely engaged in battle directly anymore. Most of the time, they remained in the rear, supervising and pushing the colonial forces to tangle with the Russians. British commanders seemed entirely indifferent to the number of casualties. At this pace, it seemed the British would not admit defeat until every Indian was dead. No matter how worthless Russian soldiers were, they were still more valuable than colonial natives. Regardless of the exchange rate, the Russian army was suffering losses, because on the other side were 300 million Indians. “Prepare to negotiate with the British!” After making this decision, Alexander III sank into gloom. This was the closest the Russian Empire had ever been to India, and now the opportunity was gone. “Yes, Your Majesty!” “Your Majesty, should we inform the Austrians? After all—” Before Foreign Minister Nikolay de Giers could finish, Alexander III interrupted, “Do as you see fit. The British no longer want to fight, and we are no longer able to continue either.” With that, Alexander III turned and walked away. There was no doubt that the Russian Empire still had the capability to continue the war. After all, Austria was still providing support in the rear, and they could hold out for a while longer. The key issue was that without taking India, continuing the war only served to tie down the British and benefit Austria, which was making great advances across the African continent. That did not align with Russia’s interests. No matter how good the alliance was, it could not outweigh the pull of national interest. According to the prior agreement, the Austrian government had supported Russia’s advance into India in exchange for Russian support of Austria’s dominance in Africa, and the two would share continental hegemony after the war. Now that the Russian government was making peace with the British, it was clearly betraying its ally. But there was no choice. Since Russia could no longer take India, it could not just sit by and watch Austria dominate Africa alone. Otherwise, the power gap between the two countries would only grow after the war. In an age of survival of the fittest, any imbalance in power would turn the promise of shared continental hegemony into a joke. Alexander III had a sharp political mind and understood the importance of the Russo-Austrian alliance. To reduce the political fallout, he decisively chose to shift the blame. … Ever since the decision to support the French, the British Foreign Office had been taking a series of actions, with the Anglo-Russian truce being just one of them. After all, the Russians were allies of Austria. It wasn’t likely they could be persuaded to switch sides with a few sweet words. For one thing, the deep-rooted conflict between Britain and Russia couldn’t be resolved in such a short time. They had just fought a war, and now they were supposedly forming an alliance. Moves like that might be possible in theory, or perhaps back in the Middle Ages. But in today’s world, where nationalism is on the rise, anyone trying such a stunt would be asking for a revolution. In Tokyo, after sending off the uninvited British envoy, Itō Hirobumi was in a terrible mood. He had barely managed to coordinate the interests of various factions and suppress calls for a southern advance in favor of continuing the northern strategy. Now that the British were meddling, the situation had changed once again. There was no need to guess. If the British envoy had gone so far as to visit him, the leader of the opposition to southern expansion, then they had certainly already lobbied those in favor of it. Just as Itō Hirobumi was thinking through his next steps, the voice of his attendant rang out. “Prime Minister, a call from the Imperial Palace. You’re to attend an emergency audience immediately.” With a loud crash, the glass in Itō’s hand fell to the floor. It was all happening too fast, there wasn’t even time to prepare. There was no doubt domestic political forces were involved. Otherwise, there wouldn’t be an emergency meeting immediately after the British envoy’s visit. This move was clearly meant as a show of force, a signal to Itō to back off from opposing southern expansion. There was nothing he could do. With the death of the “Three Great Nobles” of the Meiji Restoration, there was no longer anyone who could stabilize the political scene. Without a unifying figure, political infighting had become increasingly outrageous. Take the current situation, for example. These factions had privately met with the British behind the Prime Minister’s back and had likely already reached an agreement. Itō knew what was happening, but that didn’t mean he had the power to stop it. Despite his fame in later generations, he had never held absolute authority. At least for now, Japan has not taken any reckless strategic action. The military had not yet grown powerful through war, and the government could still barely keep them in check. But once the military expanded its influence, anyone who dared to oppose them could expect a mutiny and a new government overnight. … Navy Minister Saigō Tsugumichi was the first to speak: “The British have made their position clear that they support the French. The international situation has undergone a fundamental shift. The outcome of the continental war is becoming clear. The risks we originally feared no longer exist. All conditions for implementing the southern expansion strategy are now in place.” If possible, Saigō Tsugumichi would have preferred not to be the first to speak up. But as Navy Minister, he had no choice. Southeast Asia was crowded with major powers and the situation was extremely complex. Once Japan extended its influence there, it would inevitably need to significantly expand its navy. As the greatest beneficiary of the southern expansion strategy, the navy leadership had already reached a consensus. There was no room for him, as Navy Minister, to hesitate. Minister of Agriculture and Commerce Inoue Kaoru said, “Saigō-kun, your claim that the continental war situation is becoming clear may be a bit premature. As everyone knows, Britain’s strength lies in the Royal Navy. Their army, by contrast, is quite average. Even if the French receive British support, it won’t mean much in a decisive continental war unless the Russians also support them. In reality, that’s impossible. It’s well known that the Austro-Russian alliance is very solid. The Russians cannot do without Austria. The Russian government would have to lose its mind to betray its ally and support its enemy.” There was no flaw in that logic. Anglo-Russian negotiations had only just begun and were still highly confidential. Japan’s intelligence network wasn’t yet capable of reaching into the top echelons of Britain and Russia. Following normal reasoning, if Britain and Russia were at war, and France and Austria were also at war, then the enemy of one’s enemy is a friend. Moreover, Russia and Austria already had an alliance. With Britain and France now drawing closer together, it was only natural for Russia and Austria to stand together. Britain and France had almost no chance of defeating Russia and Austria on land. Against this backdrop, accepting Britain and France’s invitation to declare war on Austria looked highly unwise. Minister of the Army Ōyama Iwao said, “Inoue-san, you’re overthinking it. Never mind whether the Russians are willing to send troops to help Austria, even if they win in Europe, so what? As long as the British are willing to support France, the anti-French alliance is at a complete disadvantage in the competition for overseas colonies. If Austria wants to take revenge on us, they’ll need to get past the Royal Navy’s blockade first. From what I know, the allies Britain and France are drawing in aren’t just us. Several American countries will also take part, with the goal of seizing Austria’s overseas colonies. We awakened too late and missed the colonial era. Now, looking around the world, all the land already has owners. Fortunately, the European powers are full of internal conflicts. This continental war is our best opportunity. If we can seize Austrian Southeast Asia, we’ll have everything we need—coal, iron ore, rubber, grain... all of it.” Looking at Ōyama immersed in his fantasy, Itō Hirobumi couldn’t help but interrupt, “The British have no intention of forming an alliance with us. They invited us to participate in the attack on Austrian Southeast Asia simply because the situation called for it. No matter how many promises they make, if we do seize Austrian Southeast Asia, most of the benefits will still go to Britain and France. What we’ll get is just leftovers. We’ve all studied European history and should understand how things work there. Even if Austria loses this war, it remains a major power. Offending a European great power for the sake of a few scraps is absolutely not worth it. When they come for revenge in the future, the British won’t stand up for us.” Once the truth was laid bare, everyone was stunned. The law of the jungle defined the era and the weak had no right to fight the strong over spoils of war. The gap in strength was too large. No matter how many promises Britain and France made, Japan’s government wouldn’t have the power to hold them to it after the war. When it came to profit, breaking promises was all too common. If Japan couldn’t take Austrian Southeast Asia for itself, and only ended up picking up the scraps behind Britain and France, then launching this war would be utterly meaningless. The Japanese military might have been a bit aggressive, but they weren’t fools. The overzealous Imperial Japanese Army General Staff hadn’t come onto the scene yet. Everyone present still had their wits about them and naturally wouldn’t jump into a trap. Saigō Tsugumichi smiled slightly and pointed to the map on the wall and said, “Itō-san, we have naturally taken this issue into account. The British have their own calculations, and we have our own plans. Our neighbor has an old saying: ‘to obtain safe passage to conquer the State of Guo.’ Everyone knows Austria is not easy to provoke. Just their presence in Southeast Asia alone is beyond what we can handle. From the very beginning, Austrian Southeast Asia was never our true objective. Our real target is here, the fertile Philippine Islands. Choosing to cooperate with Britain and France is merely to use them as cover, to confuse the Spanish, and create an opportunity to seize the Philippine Islands.” Upon hearing this explanation, Itō Hirobumi’s serious expression softened a little. Compared to attacking Austrian Southeast Asia, bullying the Spanish was clearly more acceptable and at least posed a manageable level of risk. “The plan sounds good, but have you considered the consequences? Britain and France are not easy to deal with. Once they realize we are using them, they will surely retaliate in the future. One wrong move could plunge the Empire into utter ruin. Our strength is still too weak to withstand such turmoil.” Saigō Tsugumichi nodded and replied, “The military has discussed this issue long ago. If there were no war in Europe, we would never dare take such action. But now it is different. The European powers have split into two major camps: Britain and France on one side, Russia and Austria on the other. Britain’s continental balance strategy is on the verge of collapse. For the time being, none of the great powers have time to deal with us. According to the information we have gathered, the total mobilized forces of both sides exceed ten million. If they continue to bleed each other dry like this, it is unlikely that either side will emerge as a true victor. The most probable outcome is mutual exhaustion. As long as we remain flexible and join the winning side just before the European war reaches its conclusion, we will have secured our position. No matter who wins, they will be too busy licking their wounds after the war to go to great lengths over a small matter and turn on an ally like us. If we are lucky, we may even claim some spoils of war and raise our standing on the international stage.”
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH) Support the translation and read more chapters at https://ko-fi.com/dragonlegion
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