The neighbors had all begun preparing for war, so the French government naturally had no choice. At this point, even if they didn’t want to start a war, they had no option but to prepare for one. Napoleon IV never believed in so-called good neighborly relations. Given France’s relationships with the surrounding countries, any imbalance of power could bring an invasion at any moment. In an era where the weak are prey to the strong, weakness was the greatest sin. And besides, these countries already had grudges against each other. Since ancient times, military expansion has been seen as the prelude to war. The French government’s actions only deepened everyone’s panic. The European continent now felt like a storm was about to break. … London British Foreign Secretary George pointed at the map of Europe on the wall and said, “The plan has gone smoothly so far. Even though we didn’t manage to provoke Austria into deploying troops to unify the German states, the French have already taken the bait. Due to the rising tension, the French government has begun a massive military expansion. Once they’ve taken this step, there’s no going back. The only issue is that too many countries have been dragged into this. France’s diplomacy is truly terrible that they haven’t managed to secure a single ally. They couldn’t even keep the Spanish on their side. Given the current situation, if we don’t step in to help, once war breaks out, Austria will likely form an anti-French coalition and pull in Belgium, the German states, Switzerland, and Spain to jointly attack the French.” Military expansion is no game, especially during tense times. Once a government expands its military, it sends a clear signal of impending war to the outside world. Capitalists will increase investment in military-related industries, and existing arms manufacturers will rapidly expand their production capacity. France had just experienced a wave of overproduction and unemployment. With the winds of war rising, businesses came back to life and workers found jobs again. If the government tries to put on the brakes now, the capitalists would be the first to object. They’ve invested real money and expect a return. The workers who finally got their jobs back wouldn’t accept it either. With interests pushing from behind, war is only a matter of time. What the French government can still decide is simply who to fight, and where to start. Prime Minister Gladstone nodded. The French had no allies. That was the very basis for a possible Anglo-French alliance. Still, the current situation, where any movement by France instantly triggers the alert of all its neighbors, was somewhat beyond their expectations. “I remember the Spanish government was supported by the French. For the past decade or so, Franco-Spanish relations have been quite good. There’s no reason for them to side with Austria, right?” After the revolution in Spain, the Bourbon royal family fled to France. Napoleon III struck a deal with the Bourbons, supporting Alfonso XII’s rise to the throne in exchange for the dynasty not causing him trouble. After Alfonso XII came to power, relations between France and Spain rapidly warmed. There had long been speculation that the two countries secretly signed an alliance. With ties like that, and no major conflict of interest, it seemed unlikely they would turn against each other. George explained, “It’s true that France and Spain were on good terms for a while, but their underlying tensions run deeper. Especially after Alfonso XII died and Archduchess Maria Christina of Austria became regent, Spain’s foreign policy underwent a fundamental shift, changing from pro-French to pro-Austrian. At present, Franco-Spanish relations are only holding up on the surface. They are far from being true allies. Just last week, Austria provided the Spanish government with an interest-free loan of 20 million guilders. As soon as they received the money, Spain announced the expansion of five infantry divisions. And it’s not just Spain. In the past month, Austria has also issued various loans to Belgium, the German Federation, and Switzerland. In contrast, the French government reacted very sluggishly. Even after these events, they failed to take the right steps to win other countries over. Instead, they sent people to issue warnings and threats.” As close neighbors, France and Spain have never been strangers to conflict. The Habsburgs contributed greatly to that long history of warfare. But those were events from centuries ago, and any hatred from that era has long faded. What Spaniards remember more vividly is the Napoleonic Wars. If the British shattered the myth of the Invincible Armada and brought an end to Spain’s maritime dominance, then Napoleon was the one who truly ended the Spanish Empire. Mexico, Central America, Peru, Colombia, Chile, Paraguay—over a dozen countries and millions of square kilometers of land gained independence as a result of the Napoleonic Wars. To say the Spanish held no resentment would be utterly false. It was just that France was too powerful, while Spain was weak, plagued by internal divisions, and had no choice but to endure. No matter how much patience they showed, the lingering grudge meant that relations between France and Spain could never truly improve. While Alfonso XII was alive, their ties remained relatively good, largely thanks to France’s support in restoring the Bourbon monarchy. But after Archduchess Maria Christina of Austria became regent, with no longer a pro-French monarch on the throne, anti-French voices within Spain naturally grew louder. Chancellor of the Exchequer Hugh Childers said, “From this perspective alone, the French government hasn’t necessarily done anything wrong. They’ve never had good relations with their neighbors to begin with, so if they want allies, they’ll have to pay a much higher price. Offering mere promises of benefit won’t convince anyone. And when it comes to financial power, they can’t compete with Austria. Their only real advantage lies in the prestige and reputation of the French army. If they can’t win these countries over, then they might as well intimidate them into staying in line. In the end, these are all fence-sitters. As long as France remains strong enough, none of them will dare to act rashly. Besides, the French government has always acted assertively. If they suddenly lower themselves to beg for support, it might just create the wrong impression.” This was a fair point. France was never particularly good at building alliances. Trying to compete with Austria in this arena would only waste energy without much effect. Military deterrence might actually be the more effective path. Prime Minister Gladstone frowned. The French situation was worse than expected. Military intimidation might work in the short term, but if France and Austria end up locked in a stalemate on the battlefield, these smaller countries could very well become the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Franz was world-renowned for his generosity toward allies, especially when he was spending other people’s money. On that front, no one could rival him. “We need the Foreign Office to find a way to keep these countries neutral. If five of them unite, the French won’t stand a chance at all!” The French were confident, but that confidence came from decades of constant propaganda. The government’s top officials had grown up hearing that same message, and deep down they believed the French Army was invincible. But those directly involved often fail to see clearly, while bystanders have a better perspective. Gladstone did not share the same confidence in the French army’s combat strength. In his view, while the French Army might be the best in the world, being the best didn’t mean it was unbeatable. Even ants can kill an elephant if there are enough of them. One on one, France didn’t even have a guaranteed victory over Austria. If more opponents were added into the mix, the war would become unwinnable. What Britain wanted was for France and Austria to both suffer heavy losses, not to see Austria rise to power in the aftermath. But now they had no choice but to interfere a little more directly. Foreign Secretary George shook his head and replied, “That won’t be easy. Unless the French launch their attack from the Italian region, we won’t have any real way to keep the other countries neutral. Otherwise, the best we can do is ensure Spanish neutrality, and maybe add Switzerland to that list. They are officially neutral. As long as the French don’t provoke anything, the Foreign Office is confident we can persuade the Swiss government to stay out of it.” It couldn’t be helped. The conflict between France and Austria stemmed directly from the involvement of Belgium and the German Federation. Since France intended to seize their territories, it was impossible to expect those two countries to remain neutral. Prime Minister Gladstone nodded helplessly. Belgium and the German Federation had once been protégés supported by Britain, but now, for the sake of the Empire’s larger interests, they had to be abandoned. Thinking of this gave Gladstone a headache. Both Belgium and the German states were part of the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha. If France lost the war, that was one thing, but if France ended up winning, the losses to the Gotha dynasty would be severe. If Queen Victoria ever found out that he had been the one behind this whole affair, she would probably want to kill him. At this point, Gladstone didn’t even dare to set foot in the palace.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH) Support the translation at https://ko-fi.com/dragonlegion
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