The sunlight poured onto the land, reflecting off the white snow and casting a shimmering golden glow. The ground was covered in snow, and the Neva River lay frozen, announcing the arrival of winter. Saint Petersburg, as always, looked most fitting in snow. On days like this, Alexander III would usually take his family out to enjoy the winter sunshine. But now, within the Gatchina Palace, the top officials of the Russian government had gathered to discuss the nation’s next policies. Foreign Minister Nikolay de Giers said, “Last night at the banquet, the French envoy revealed some news. The French government is preparing to increase its support for us. As long as our frontline troops capture Herat or the Wakhan Corridor, they will underwrite ten billion francs in war bonds for us. The French intentions are quite clear. They want to use us to weaken the British. The Anglo-French alliance is practically dead. Before this, the Austrian government expressed similar intentions, though the French were clearly more eager. The British have done too many bad things over the years, and now they have enemies everywhere. The current international situation is very favorable for us. Now everything depends on the military.” Turning an enemy into an ally could be considered a miracle in diplomatic history. But given the complex relationship between Britain and France, such developments were not surprising. The British and the French were long-time enemies. No justification was needed for France to harm Britain. If the French government had wholeheartedly supported the British, then that would truly have been suspicious. Minister of War Ivanov said, “The front is advancing very smoothly. We’ve already pushed the line to Herat in western Afghanistan and Kunduz, the transportation hub in the east. A breakthrough at either point will give us the initiative in the war. Based on the current situation, taking Herat or the Wakhan Corridor before British reinforcements arrive has a high chance of success. Our only problem now is logistics. As the front pushes forward, the delivery of supplies is getting slower and slower. If this doesn’t change, our frontline troops will soon have to halt and wait for supplies.” Blaming others was easy, and to be fair, what Ivanov said was also true. The initial success of the Russian army was built on having abundant supplies. But after exhausting the reserves stockpiled before the war, they now had to rely entirely on rear supply lines. Hearing about the logistical shortcomings, Alexander III’s expression immediately darkened. His gaze turned toward Minister of Logistics, Argenyev, with a murderous look, as if to say: You’d better give me a good explanation, or else... Prepared for this moment, Argenyev remained calm as he explained, “It’s not our fault that logistics are falling short. The roads through Central Asia are not secure. Guerrilla sabotage frequently disrupts our supply routes and seriously delays delivery. Additionally, the front-line units often relocate without notifying the logistics department, forcing our people to make unnecessary trips. How can that not slow things down?” Ivanov sneered, “If your logistics department can’t handle it, then let the army take over supply transport. Stop making excuses. Guerrilla attacks? The military has already wiped out local resistance forces and deployed heavy infantry to guard the supply convoys. Since the war began, convoys have been attacked a total of seventeen times, and the largest group of attackers never exceeded five hundred people. Nine of those attacks were even provoked by your own side. To minimize conflict, we even relocated native populations within a thirty-kilometer radius. And yet you still managed to go the wrong way. As for the claim that we failed to notify you in time, that’s pure nonsense. Major logistical movements from your department require approval from Saint Petersburg. Frontline commanders only have the authority to move materials at the regimental level or below. Battlefield conditions change constantly. Even our generals don’t know what will happen next and must adapt accordingly. How could they notify you in advance?” The conflict between the military and the logistics department was essentially a reflection of deeper tensions between the army and government bureaucracy. At its root, it was a struggle over authority. Logistics were the government’s best tool to control the army. Bureaucrats believed that sacrificing some efficiency to prevent the military from growing too powerful was a worthwhile trade. Especially after the invention of the telegraph, which sped up communication, many European countries increased their control over supply systems. Not only in this era, even during World War II, logistical systems remained chaotic in many countries. It wasn’t that people didn’t know how to fix it. The real issue was that once logistics were handed over to the army, the government lost its leverage over the military. That could easily lead to a situation where the military grew too dominant. Every nation’s logistics system had flaws. But in an age where everything was measured by comparison, being just slightly better than others counted as success. Argenyev replied calmly, “Marshal, professional matters should be left to professionals. With all due respect, if you military folks were put in charge of logistics, the situation would be even worse than it is now. Don’t forget, logistics is not just about distributing supplies. More importantly, it’s about gathering them. That involves countless complicated issues. As for the delays in allocation, we’re already working on solutions. The situation should improve soon.” Handing over control of supply distribution was out of the question. Without that authority, the logistics department would be reduced to nothing more than a nursemaid, and one without pay at that. Beyond the loss of power, there were also real personal interests at stake. Positions in the logistics department were lucrative. Only by controlling both procurement and distribution could people take advantage and profit from the system. To shut down the military’s ambitions, Argenyev didn’t hesitate to issue a direct threat. He made it clear to Marshal Ivanov that without cooperation from the logistics department, the army would not be able to gather supplies at all. Alexander III pretended not to notice the clash among his subordinates. Conflict between those who controlled the troops and those who controlled the supplies was something he welcomed. If the two sides had gotten along too well, then he really would have had trouble sleeping at night. Sensing the growing tension, Finance Minister Alisher spoke up to mediate: “That’s enough, both of you. The logistics department should give frontline supply officers more authority and have them report directly to General Onets, to ensure timely distribution of supplies. Also, increase the speed of domestic supply transport. If the quantity is insufficient, we can purchase more from Austria. In short, we must do everything possible to guarantee the needs of the frontline troops.” The wishes of the one holding the purse strings could not be ignored. Both the logistics department and the military relied on funding from the Ministry of Finance. Under such circumstances, the Finance Minister served as a buffer to ease interdepartmental conflicts. Though he did not hold the official title of Prime Minister, he effectively performed part of the role. Marshal Ivanov never really expected to take full control of logistics. Even during the Russo-Prussian War, the military hadn’t succeeded in gaining that power, so there was no hope of doing so now. As long as frontline commanders had temporary authority over supply distribution and could keep the troops well-equipped, he was satisfied. Marshal Ivanov accepted the arrangement, and Argenyev, unable to find an excuse to refuse, could only agree under pressure. The disarray in logistics wasn’t caused by Argenyev deliberately sabotaging the army. The root of the issue lay in an overall shortage of supplies. This was a deeply rooted problem involving many interest groups, and Argenyev could only try to cover it up. With insufficient supplies, they often had to “rob Peter to pay Paul.” In many cases, so-called distribution errors were actually deliberate delays by field bureaucrats who were left with no other choice. Claiming a mistake bought them time. Given the complex procedures for changing allocations, by the time everything was sorted out, significant time had already passed. Supplies meant for three months might be stretched with just two months’ worth, saving the rest. Or rather, putting it on credit. When it would be repaid depended on future circumstances. As long as the deception wasn’t too blatant, it wouldn’t cause major problems. So what did the Russian troops do when supplies were short? Their ancestors had long ago found the answer: just go out and loot. After all, that was the Russian army’s tradition. Of course, this approach came with risks. In the original timeline during World War I, the strategy collapsed when the war dragged on too long and there was nowhere left to loot. That failure helped bring down the Russian Empire. With that brief episode over, Alexander III chuckled and said, “The situation is getting more interesting. The Austrians support our war against the British. The French do too. Austria and France reaching the same conclusion like this? I won’t believe there’s no scheme behind it. What do you think their real goal is? What benefit is so great that they’re willing to hand us such a generous deal?” Suspicion was second nature to a ruler. Austria and France had made their intentions too obvious. Their goal of provoking a war between Russia and Britain could be seen a mile away. Even knowing this was a trap, Alexander III was still willing to jump into it for the sake of potential gains. There was no other choice. The current international situation was very clear. The western path for Russian expansion was completely blocked. With the lessons of the Russo-Prussian War still fresh, even the most aggressive factions didn’t believe expanding into continental Europe had any future. That left only three options: northward, southward, or eastward. Northward held no prospects. The Arctic was nothing but ice, and the Nordic Federation was a tough nut to crack. Eastward wasn’t much better. The climate was harsh, and even just traveling from west to east took a whole year. It was no place for large-scale military campaigns. Heading south had become the only and best choice. Although they would have to compete with the British, in this day and age, what doesn’t involve competition? Even if he were to be used as a pawn, Alexander III would rather be one that could jump off the board at any moment, rather than be blindly sacrificed without knowing it. Foreign Minister Nikolay de Giers said, “Looking at the current international situation, France and Austria support us in going to war with the British. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs believes there are three main possibilities. First, they want us and the British to fight each other to the death, weakening both sides so that France and Austria can profit from the war without getting directly involved. Judging from the level of support they are giving us, this motive can likely be ruled out. The funding they are providing is barely enough to cover costs through trade, let alone bring profit. Second, they want to use us to severely damage Britain, then divide British territory among themselves. This possibility is even less likely. Although the French have repeatedly promised to go to war with the British at the right time, they demand that Austria declare war on Britain first. We have tested the waters. The Austrian government is not ready to break off relations with Britain, let alone go to war with them. Third, France and Austria want to use the Afghan War to tie us and the British down, so they can act more freely on the European continent. What their exact intentions are remains unclear, but judging from their behavior, we can tell that the French government is more eager. The Austrian government appears more indifferent. They seem undecided and hesitant. Based on this, we can make a preliminary judgment that France and Austria are not in agreement, and their strategic objectives might even conflict. Personally, I believe the focus of France and Austria is Central Europe. Austria wants to take this opportunity to unify the German states. However, they lack confidence in completing this task if France chooses to obstruct them. At the same time, they are unwilling to give up the chance. France, on the other hand, hopes to use this opportunity to expand into Central Europe, aiming to annex Belgium and parts of the German Federation. The main targets are territories west of the Rhine River. That area contains coal mines that France desperately needs to compensate for its lack of resources. Of course, this is just speculation. The French government’s ambitions might not be that great. After all, the German Federation is not weak. With Austria on the side ready to intervene, it would be difficult for France to prevail. Unless France can achieve a swift and decisive victory, occupying those territories before Austria can intervene and using the natural barrier of the Rhine River to block the Austro-German forces.” Strategic plans cannot be hidden easily. No evidence is needed, just a motive is enough. There is no doubt that both France and Austria have motives to expand into Central Europe. While launching the war with Britain, the Russian government has not taken its eyes off the European continent. In fact, if France and Austria were not keeping each other in check, the Russian government would not dare to go all in on the southern front. Minister of War Ivanov shook his head and replied, “I agree with Your Excellency’s judgment. The third scenario is the most likely. However, I have a different opinion regarding the details. France and Austria are indeed interested in Central Europe, and the German Federation is not weak. Austria might have some chance of success by using political methods to manipulate the Federation from within. But if France tries to forcefully attack the German Federation, even if Austria doesn’t send troops, France will lose some teeth in the process. The French government surely sees this too. Rather than take a risk without assurance, it would be safer for them to settle for annexing Belgium instead.” Due to the Russo-Prussian War, the Russian government had raised its evaluation of the German states' combat capabilities by an entire level. On paper, the German Federation was no longer weak. Its military power was about the same as the former Prusso-Polish Federation. Its total economic output was second only to Britain, France, Russia, and Austria. Its heavy industry was on par with France, and it had a population of 25 million. Putting himself in their shoes, Marshal Ivanov did not believe that France would dare to bite off such a hard piece of meat, especially since there was a lion waiting to hunt right behind it. In contrast, annexing Belgium was much easier. The secret Austro-Belgian agreement was unknown to all, so on the surface, taking Belgium would only offend Britain. But as far as Franco-British relations were concerned, offending them meant little. France had already dared to issue war bonds to Russia, so there was nothing it wouldn’t dare to do. Foreign Minister Nikolay de Giers shrugged as he said, “Marshal, the French are not as rational as you are. They have always claimed to have the world’s best army. You have never been to France, so you may not know how proud they are. Ever since Napoleon III, the French government has been promoting the idea that France is invincible. Many French people are still stuck in the Napoleonic mindset, thinking they are unmatched. Even though we defeated them in the Near East War, it hasn’t changed their thinking at all.” The Near East War didn’t really count. Britain, France, and Russia all claimed victory, and the only party that admitted defeat was the now-defunct Ottoman Empire. Nikolay de Giers could cite the Near East War, but Marshal Ivanov had no face to bring it up. Although the Russian army had achieved a strategic victory, its performance in tactics was a disaster. The so-called victory was won through sheer loss of life. The Russian casualty ratio was abysmal. Many times, even with double the troops, the Russians were beaten badly. From a professional soldier’s perspective, Marshal Ivanov did not see that as a Russian victory. It was more like a national disgrace. Sensing the mood change, Alexander III spoke: “Alright, how ambitious the French are is a minor issue. Though I don’t want to admit it, in recent years the balance of power among the four great European powers has indeed been broken, and we are the weakest. Britain, France, and Austria all have more strength than we do. Our ability to compete with Britain over Afghanistan is due to the support from France and Austria. But if France and Austria can provoke a war between us and Britain to benefit from the outcome, why can’t we do the same to them? The Central European issue is a core conflict between France and Austria. Whether it is Austria trying to unify the German states or France trying to expand eastward, as soon as one of them makes a move, fierce conflict will erupt. Now that we are at war with Britain, France and Austria no longer have to worry about us. If we give them a little push from behind, the chances of war breaking out between them become very high. If we can use that war to make them both suffer, we may regain our advantage on the European continent. At the very least, we can drag them back to our level.” Anyone could betray an ally. France and Austria had used the Russian Empire as a pawn, and Alexander III could just as easily strike back. Russia and Britain were already at war, and both sides would be heavily weakened afterward. If they didn’t take the opportunity to also weaken France and Austria, the gap between the four great powers would only widen. Foreign Minister Nikolay de Giers reminded him, "Your Majesty, if France and Austria go to war, we will lose their support. Without it, sustaining the Afghan front on our own would be…” Alexander III interrupted, “Don’t worry. Starting a Franco-Austrian war won’t happen overnight. Even if we do take action, it will only be when the Afghan front is close to being settled. Until then, we are all good allies. What we need to do now is squeeze as much as we can out of France and Austria in terms of loans and supplies. If they want us to fight for them, they have to give us something in return.” Hearing this explanation, everyone let out a breath of relief. As long as it didn’t affect the Afghan front, it didn’t matter if France and Austria went to war.
*** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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