The sudden outbreak of an arms race disrupted the plans of many, including Austria. In fact, the Austrian government had once considered initiating an arms race itself, but that was a thing of the past. Ever since the decision to implement the Near East Development Plan, Franz had abandoned that tempting strategy. The reason was simple—a lack of funds. Trying to build infrastructure while simultaneously engaging in an arms race was not something Austria could afford. Starting an arms race was easy, but the key issue was how to manage the aftermath. If they launched such a significant initiative only to find their coffers empty shortly after, it would be a disgrace. This was not merely a matter of pride. More importantly, it was about demonstrating strength to the world. The stronger a nation appeared, the easier it was to attract allies in international politics. Of course, there were occasional exceptions where such moves could have the opposite effect. How things played out depended on each nation’s political skill. It had to be admitted that the British had timed their move perfectly. Now was indeed the best opportunity to suppress France and Austria. If they missed this window and the two nations completed their strategic plans, the situation would reverse dramatically. Even if Britain could not suppress both countries in one blow, it still needed to strike at their arrogance and remind the world who the true hegemon of this era was. Putting down the documents in his hand, Franz frowned and asked, “Are we being forced to respond?” Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “Yes, Your Majesty. The British have timed this perfectly. If we back down now, the outside world will think Austria is afraid of Britain. According to reports from our embassy in Paris, the French government has already decided to respond and will likely announce a new shipbuilding plan soon.” It was not that Austria lacked the capability to keep up, but Franz was unwilling to engage in such a pointless drain of resources. Admittedly, that was a bit of self-consolation. The reality was that, without affecting domestic economic development, Austria’s financial strength could not match Britain’s. Even with the significant gains from confiscations, the Near East development plan, urban renovation and upgrades, and road and transportation infrastructure projects had already consumed most of those resources. The biggest problem with an arms race was not shipbuilding itself but the long-term military expenditures that followed. Simply building ships was not difficult. The Austrian government could easily produce a hundred battleships if it wanted to. The issue was that once the ships were built, the ongoing maintenance costs would be staggering. To put it clearly, the construction cost of a new battleship at this time was about one million guilders. The five-year maintenance costs would exceed the original construction cost of the ship. It might not even take five years. With more intensive training, the maintenance costs could surpass construction costs within three years. This was something that could be calculated. A battleship required a crew of 600 to 700 officers and sailors, and the number of logistics and maintenance personnel was at least equal to or greater than the front-line crew. The annual expenditure on military salaries alone was a considerable sum. To maintain the combat effectiveness of the navy, regular training was essential. Just looking at the gun barrels made it clear that naval shells were not cheap. A single broadside from a battleship could cost dozens of guilders, and using special shells might cost several hundred guilders in one go. Coal, which seemed trivial, became a significant expense when measured in thousands of tons. Routine inspections, equipment maintenance, and replacement of damaged parts also constituted a major cost. All these expenses combined meant that an annual budget of several hundred thousand guilders was necessary just to cover basic operations. If they wanted to cut costs, they could opt for a “poor man’s navy.” This would mean copying the earlier Russian approach, where warships stayed docked in port, and sailors trained with army manuals. Military expenses in that case would be only one-tenth of the normal level. Franz nodded and instructed the naval minister, “Castagni, tell me about your shipbuilding plan.” “Yes, Your Majesty!” Minister of the Navy Castagni said, “The British navy already has four battleships of the Sovereign class. This time, they plan to build six more modern battleships, ten destroyers, seven cruisers, and a total of 31 other warships of various sizes. If we want to maintain a deterrent against them, we need at least 80% of their number of capital ships and 70% of their auxiliary ships. At present, we only have three modern battleships. The Naval Ministry plans to build five additional modern battleships, eight destroyers, six cruisers, and a total of 25 other auxiliary ships.” It is unclear exactly when it started, but the Austrian navy began to popularize the “eighty percent theory.” The idea was that by possessing 80% of the Royal Navy’s tonnage, Austria could deter the British. It is worth noting that when Austria’s naval expansion first began, the original goal of the Austrian navy was only to reach one-tenth of the Royal Navy’s size. In less than thirty years, that target had increased eightfold. On reflection, this made sense. After all, the tonnage of Austria’s main battleships had already reached nearly 70% of Britain’s. To be exact, it was 65.7%. Rounding up to 70% was not inaccurate.With such a solid foundation, it was no surprise that the eighty percent theory gained traction. From the navy’s internal perspective, the fact that they had not proposed a one-to-one shipbuilding plan was already showing restraint. Franz himself did not mind this, but it remained to be seen whether the British could tolerate it. Yet everyone’s bottom line is constantly redefined, and the same applies to nations. Compared to the original historical timeline, the British government’s bottom line was already much lower. This was the result of pressure. As the economic strength of both France and Austria increased, both nations had ramped up investment in their navies. The Royal Navy’s “two-power standard” was slapped in the face almost as soon as it was introduced. The British then revised their policy, aiming to maintain a 1:0.6 advantage over the world’s second-strongest navy, using the Royal Navy as the benchmark. In reality, that ratio was more rhetorical than practical. After several years of effort, the British government was again forced to lower its expectations. Austria, the third-largest naval power, had already reached 65% of the Royal Navy’s tonnage, while the French navy had surpassed even that, reaching 72% of Britain’s. The tripartite balance between Britain, France, and Austria was in fact the result of the Royal Navy’s inability to suppress both France and Austria. The British government in London had been forced to accept the reality of sharing the rest of the world with these two powers. Britain had always tried to suppress them, but the problem was that it had achieved very little. Neither of the two rivals had been successfully contained. No one was foolish. With an opportunistic Britain lurking nearby, France and Austria tacitly suppressed their mutual conflicts and kept a close watch on the British. Several times the British government attempted to stir up trouble, but each time it was discovered. Under the retaliatory pressure from France and Austria, Britain was nearly squeezed out of the Mediterranean. At first, it was difficult for Britain to swallow, but over time the British government’s adaptability allowed it to accept the new reality. After all, 0.72 and 0.65 together only amounted to 1.37, and the two countries were unlikely to truly unite wholeheartedly. The Royal Navy could just about manage to contain the situation. All of this, however, was based on the premise that the ratios would not continue to rise. If the Austrian navy’s tonnage rose to 80% of the Royal Navy’s and the French navy kept pace, the British government would likely explode with rage. That scenario was impossible. The current ratios were already close to the limit of what Britain could tolerate. Even if they had to sell off everything, the British government would ensure the Royal Navy maintained its superiority. If Austria were not undertaking so many domestic development projects, it naturally would not fear matching Britain in financial resources. But under the current circumstances, that was clearly no longer possible. After hesitating for a moment, Franz slowly said, “Let’s announce this plan as it is, but extend the construction timeline by two years compared to the British. If Britain and France increase their shipbuilding numbers later, we will follow proportionally as per the current ratio. However, we can slow our construction pace a bit, building only two to three battleships per year. If necessary, the Navy Ministry can also bring out those larger plans to confuse and mislead public opinion.” Even if they could not outbuild the British, Franz had already made up his mind to compete in the naval arms race by bluffing and grandstanding. After all, it was not as if Austria would not build the ships. They would simply be completed later, which would not damage their credibility. By stretching out the shipbuilding schedule, the financial pressure on the government would be eased. As long as the treasury could sustain it, a longer-lasting arms race was not entirely without benefit. Everyone would be burning money together. No matter what, the British were building more warships, so naturally they would burn through more money. If these pre-dreadnought battleships could serve until their retirement, it would certainly not be a loss. The problem was that the pre-dreadnought era was simply too close to the dreadnought era. Essentially, it was just a difference in design philosophy. Although the technological demands of dreadnought construction were somewhat higher, they were not insurmountable. Once dreadnoughts appeared, pre-dreadnoughts would immediately become obsolete. It would be like finishing an exhausting competition, only to be told that it was merely the first half and that the second half was about to start. That would be a thoroughly unpleasant feeling. Perhaps the wealthy British could barely endure it, but the French government most likely lacked the capacity to press on again. Moreover, the increased naval expenditure might reduce French investment in their army, which would be highly favorable to Austria’s future strategic plans. *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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