The minor incident in North Africa had no impact on the European continent. Even newspapers reporting on the rebellion were scarce. This was the peak of European arrogance, and the public had little interest in colonial uprisings happening in remote, impoverished regions. The ongoing failure to suppress the rebellion in Egypt was an embarrassing matter. The French government was too busy covering it up to make it public. Since Britain and Austria were also involved, they were not in a position to expose the issue either. Other countries might have wanted to mock the French, but no one was willing to take the lead. Even if they could not laugh at France’s troubles in Africa, nothing stopped them from exposing the French army’s failures in Annam. Nearly twenty thousand French troops had failed to defeat a local force, which was a humiliating slap in the face for Napoleon IV. “Useless! They are all useless! The entire French army has been disgraced because of them!” “Send reinforcements immediately! I want to—” … Under the emperor’s furious outburst, everyone silently lowered their proud heads. If the initial defeats on the battlefield could be blamed on a lack of preparation and being caught off guard, the continued failures had become impossible to justify. Minister of Finance Roy Vernon massaged his scalp and tried to persuade, “Your Majesty, Annam is too far away. The cost of a long-distance military expedition is too high, and continuing to send reinforcements is no longer worth it.” As a colonial empire, the most important principle was weighing costs and benefits. Colonization was meant to generate profits, so controlling expenses was essential. All supplies for the Annam campaign had to be transported from the homeland, making the cost of war nearly three times higher than fighting on home soil. The initial defeats had already proven that the enemy was not easy to deal with, and sending more troops might not guarantee victory. Even if the war could be won, the military expenses required would be astronomical. Recovering these massive expenditures through colonial rule would take a long time. The return on investment was simply too low. Napoleon IV firmly responded, “No! The entire European continent is watching us. If we back down now, how can we maintain our standing in the world?” There had been many cases of colonial failures, the most recent being Britain’s invasion of Afghanistan. After spending over a hundred million pounds, they still failed to achieve their goals. However, this was not an option for France. The title of “World’s Strongest Land Army” was both an honor and a burden. The war had barely begun, yet rumors were already circulating in Europe that the French army was not as powerful as its reputation suggested. Since the end of the Napoleonic Wars, the French military had lacked significant victories to prove its strength. If the French government chose to withdraw now, no one would care about the reasons behind the decision. The only thing people would say was: “The French army is useless. They could not even defeat a group of…” Once a perception was shattered, the aura of invincibility surrounding the French army would disappear as well. Napoleon IV had studied military strategy and understood the crucial importance of the “military spirit.” The times had changed. The Austrians on the battlefield now had weapons, equipment, and training that were on par with the French army. The only remaining advantage of the French forces was the military spirit forged during the Napoleonic era. The glorious victories in French history had instilled in every soldier the belief that they were the strongest. Against any enemy, they held a psychological edge. Without this military spirit, the French army would be no different from any other European force. France would lose its ability to dominate the continent. Backing down was not an option, but continuing the war was also costly. The French government found itself caught in a dilemma, unable to advance or retreat. Foreign Minister Terence Bourquin proposed, “Your Majesty, according to reports from the Far East, the enemy has already requested peace negotiations. Why not take advantage of diplomacy to resolve the Annam issue for now? Once we have crushed the Egyptian rebellion, we can settle accounts with them later.” (Note: Sudan was relatively poor. France had established a governorate in Cairo, overseeing French Sudan and Egypt.) Bourquin’s suggestion to resolve the issue diplomatically was not made without reason. It was precisely because he understood the enemy that he was willing to take on this seemingly “difficult” task. Minister of Finance Roy Vernon agreed, “The Marquis is right. Our top priority should be focusing on the Egyptian rebellion. This uprising in Egypt has the backing of Britain and Austria. It is far from an ordinary revolt. Egypt is our most important colony. If the rebels manage to break into the Nile Delta, our losses will be catastrophic.” With Egypt’s two lifelines which were the cotton plantations and the Suez Canal at stake, its importance to France was undeniable. Facing harsh realities, Napoleon IV had no choice but to make a decision. “Very well, let the Ministry of Foreign Affairs handle the Annam issue for now. Urge the Governor of Egypt to send troops and suppress the rebels as soon as possible.” ... While the French were troubled, the British government found itself equally distressed. After the end of the Near East War, the Russian government had secured a significant amount of revenue, easing its financial burdens. Unsurprisingly, as soon as Russia overcame its financial difficulties, it became restless again, stirring up trouble in Central Asia. After relocating a group of deeply resentful settlers to Siberia, the Russians soon realized that it was a massive waste of money. To cut costs, the unscrupulous Russian officials simply expelled these settlers into Central Asia instead. If it were only a minor issue, Prime Minister Gladstone would not have been concerned as Central Asia’s khanates could handle it on their own. The real problem was Russia’s continued provocations along the border. One day, Russian troops would raid and steal a few sheep. The next day, they would take off with some horses… Especially last month, the Russians even relocated several Cossack tribes to the region, seizing a vast expanse of grassland. The small Central Asian khanates did not dare to confront the Russians head-on and had no choice but to turn to their patron for help. Foreign Secretary George reported, “The Foreign Office has already negotiated with the Russians, but the outcome is far from optimistic. The Russian government not only refuses to acknowledge any border violations but also insists that their forces are merely operating within their own territory. They have even warned us not to interfere in their internal affairs. At this rate, it may not be long before another war erupts in Central Asia. The khanates alone will not be able to withstand the might of the Russian army.” The tables had turned. Britain, long known for its own diplomatic strong-arming, had now encountered an opponent just as unscrupulous. Prime Minister Gladstone slammed the table and cursed, “Damn those Russian brutes! How dare they provoke Britain like this? We must teach them a lesson!” He was genuinely furious. Even blatant lies needed to have some limits. Now that clear evidence had surfaced, not only did the Russians refuse to admit their wrongdoing, but they even went on the offensive, accusing Britain instead. This was a direct affront to the dignity of the British Empire. Chancellor of the Exchequer Hugh Childers reminded him, “In reality, there is little we can do. Three years ago, when the Russian government defaulted on its debts, we imposed sanctions against them. Yet it had no effect whatsoever. The Royal Navy cannot enter the Baltic Sea, nor can it blockade the Black Sea. Most of Russia’s maritime trade is handled by the Nordic Federation and Austrian enterprises. Even if our navy encountered them, we would be powerless to intervene.” Interests are always the strongest bond. The Nordic Federation initially wanted to make trouble for the Russian government as revenge for Russia’s failure to honor its agreements. However, under the mediation of the Austrian government, the Nordic Federation received a large share of Russian shipping business as compensation. As a result, relations between the two sides quickly returned to normal. No matter how much the British issued warnings, they could not stop businesses from making money. It was not worth turning against two countries over such a minor issue. After holding out for several months with no effect, the British government was forced to lift the blockade on Russia. Every time Hugh Childers thought about this, he could not help but criticize the previous administrations, wondering if they had brains full of water. On one hand, they supported the Prussian-Polish Federation. On the other, they loaned money to the Russians. In the end, the federation, Britain’s supposed ally, lost the war and was buried under a mountain of debt, unable to fulfill its obligations, while the Russians simply defaulted altogether. Of course, the financial losses were somewhat recovered. At least for a long time, the pound had maintained a leading position over the guilder. Unfortunately, that was in the past. After the Russo-Prussian War, the Tsar decisively abandoned the pound in favor of the guilder, shifting the balance in the struggle for monetary dominance once again. Compared to the economic setback, the political loss was even more devastating. With the Prussian-Polish Federation no longer acting as a counterweight, Britain completely lost its ability to contain Austria. The biggest consequence was the destruction of the Ottoman Empire. With that, the political landscape of Europe had slipped entirely out of Britain’s control. Gladstone nodded and said, “I understand that, but we must do something now to show the Central Asian khanates our resolve.” Being the boss was not easy. When it was time to step up, one had to step up. Otherwise, if the underlings lost faith, it would be much harder to rally them later. Foreign Secretary George reminded him, “Prime Minister, what the Central Asian states need is real, tangible support. Instead of sanctioning the Russians, it would be better to arm these nations. Even if they are no match for Russia, they can at least inflict greater losses. The Russian Empire is currently very weak. They cannot afford large-scale losses, or else they wouldn’t be resorting to mere provocations. If the Central Asian nations can show enough strength, I believe the Russian government will make the right choice.” Although the smaller Central Asian states had British support, John Bull’s natural tendency to undermine his own allies had come into play. While backing these nations, Britain also ensured their power remained in check. For example: sowing discord among Central Asian nations, deliberately pitting them against each other to create mutual opposition and containment; cutting corners in military training… This way, there was no risk of these allies becoming too powerful. But at the same time, expecting them to hold back the Russians and safeguard India’s northern frontier became little more than a pipe dream. After a brief silence, Gladstone said, “It sounds like a solid plan, but how do we ensure its successful execution?” He paused for a moment before adding, “Have you noticed something unusual about this Central Asian conflict? There were no warning signs beforehand, and it erupted too suddenly. I have a bad feeling about this, as if someone is deliberately pulling the strings behind the scenes, trying to push us into a confrontation with Russia.” Politicians also rely on their instincts. Many times, personal intuition plays a crucial role in shaping strategic decisions. Chancellor of the Exchequer Hugh Childers chuckled and said, “I don’t think it really matters. Whether or not someone is pulling the strings behind the scenes, we are bound to clash with the Russians over Central Asia sooner or later. If we must identify a mastermind, I’d bet it’s the Austrians. They’re the only ones with the capability to orchestrate this.” Foreign Secretary George responded, “I don’t think we need to guess. Just look at the current international situation. We, the French, and the Russians are all facing troubles at the same time, while Austria stands to gain the most. If all these events are just coincidences, then God must really favor Austria.” Speculation remained speculation. Even if there was evidence, it wouldn’t change what needed to be done. With a sigh, Gladstone said solemnly, “Send someone to investigate. Even if we can’t change the outcome, obtaining evidence could at least strain relations between Russia and Austria. What’s the situation in Egypt? If there’s no hope, we might consider withdrawing for now. This is not the time to weaken France.” Once again, contradictory plans emerged. On the one hand, Britain wanted to maintain the balance of power in Europe and avoid weakening France too much. On the other hand, it sought an opportunity to intervene in the Suez Canal, which meant stirring up trouble in Egypt. Disrupting cotton plantations, undermining competitors, and creating better export opportunities for British industry and commerce were merely secondary benefits. George shook his head. “Lieutenant General Jarrett has already provided the rebels with a battle plan, and the material aid has been delivered. Even if we back out now, the French won’t appreciate it. Instead, we’ll just miss a valuable opportunity.” *** https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)
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